session 5, multi-modal logistics - icao.int · prepared by d lenormand ho marketing – freighters...

Prepared by D LenormandHO Marketing – FreightersSeptember 2014

Analysing the AIR EXPRESS business in China

Air Cargo Development Forum – Zhengzhou, China September 2014

SESSION 5 - Multi-modal Logistics

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

4.8% world FTK growth, driven by the strong traffic growth of emerging countries

Source: GMF 2013

20 year world annual FTK growth

Total trafficgrowth includes main deck and belly capacity

4.8 %

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032

Developed to Developed

Emerging to Emerging

Emerging to Developed

Developed to Emerging

Freight traffic growthFTKs (billions)

ForecastHistory

Future traffic with emerging economies will alter today’s freighter fleets and networks

80% of trafficin 2032

Growth Rate 2013-2032

5.3%

5.2%

6.2%

2.9%


China express market is emerging very fastAir express freight traffic grew by 55% in 2012

*2012 data only until November

Chinese express market has been soaring in past years and is planned for significant growth in the future

Express traffic in China is at its early stages, equivalent to the 80s in the US

Mature US express marketExample FedEx

26% 23% 26%

57% 55%

-10%

20%

50%

80%

110%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Million China Express market volume

Total volume Growth rate

1978 – 1983

42%AAGR


The Chinese domestic express market will boom

Source : Seabury, IATA, Airbus GMF

0

5

10

15

20

25 ExpressGeneral Cargo

PRC domestic air cargo traffic – 6.5% pa 2012 - 2032 (FTK billions)

History

Chinese domestic express will thrive like the US integrator markets of the 1980s and 1990s

Forecast

A booming Chinese express market will create the demand for small and mid-size freighters

Chinese domestic express market will grow at 11% year on year


The increasing importance of express & “special care freight”: Logistics - B2B, B2C, E-commerce & C2C

Proportion of special, express and general cargo

63%

11%

25%

54%

16%

30%

25%

40%

35%

1997 2003 2009 2015

general

express

“special care”

82%

13%4.5%

Data source: IATA


Intermodal solutions may varyRoad Feeder Services are popular in Europe

General cargo can cover long distance using trucks

FRA

MXP

VIE

WAW

SOF

CPH

CDGBRU

LYS

ZRH

GVAINN

MUC

HAJHAM

SXF

PRG

STR

DUS

MRS GOA

MPL

CFE VCEBLQ

FLRFCO

LJU

BUD

GOT

OSL

BCN

TLS

ALCATH

BEG

BIO

BOD

BTS

WRO

OTP

GDN

DBV

ARN

MAD

KTW

KRK

MSQ

NCE PSA

POZ

RIX

SKP

SPU

SVG

SKG

TSR

TIA

VLC

VNO

ZAG

LHR

EMA

Typical RFS for general cargo: 12H ~ 1 000Km, to most of Europe


Typical overnight express shipment cycle limits truck covering out of the hub

Ultimate pick-up time (latest collection) and morning delivery times limits the use of trucks for Express RFS services

Maximum road services is less that 4 hours drive ie @300km

23:30 – 02:00AMHub sorting time

18:30Collection

09:00Delivery time

Max. 4 hours drive Max. 4 hours drive


Over night express trucking is less than 4 hours @300kilometers

Typical sub-hub express trucking operations for next day delivery

FRA

MXP

VIE

WAW

SOF

CPH

CDG

BRU

LYS

ZRH

GVAINN

MUC

HAJHAM

SXF

PRG

STR

DUS

MRS GOA

MPL

CFEVCEBLQ

FLRFCO

LJU

BUD

GOT

OSL

BCN

TLS

ALCATH

BEGBIO

BOD

BTS

WRO

OTP

GDN

DBV

ARN

MAD

KTW

KRK

MSQ

NCE PSA

POZ

RIX

SKP

SPU

SVG

SKG

TSR

TIA

VLC

VNO

ZAG

LHR

EMA

LEJ

Aircraft remains a need to link the sub hubs to the main hub The DHL European sub hub system


China and the US-East Coast: Similar size, similar population concentration

FDX Hub

UPS Hub

~25% of US populationand GDP

~55% of US population and

GDP

~80% of Chinese population and GDP

2000 km

Trucks and aircraft are complementary to serve a concentrated population.However air remains the only solution for longer distance services

(55% ~175mio)

(80% ~ 1 040mio)

2000 km


Air route structure: China Postal and SF Express, a need for a multi modal approach to cover the country

NKG

PEK

SHA

XMN

FOCTPE

SZX

CANNNG

WUH

CSX

SHE

TNACGO

CGQ

SJW

CTU

ICN KIX

URC

HGH

YNT

YNZWEF

DLCTSN

HKG

CKG

KMG

XIYNRT

HRB

TAO

China Postal network: A hub in NKG

SZX

HGH

WUX

PEK

SHA

WEF

WUH

SHE

CTU

CAN

DLC

SF Express network: Still a route network

China Postal: A hub approach with a base in NanjingSF Express (still) a route approach out of Shenzhen


Optimising main deck volume usage with containers under time constraint – Probably on board trucks as well

Express AAX container 88/96/125” side by side

Typical cargo pallet built to best contour - 96/96/125” side by side

(A300-600F shown) (A330-200F shown)


Matching EXPRESS market expectations

Total quality is the priority in Express markets

• On-time performance is the primary driver

• Continuity of service is a must to secure customer loyalty

• Air links remain a prime player due to time constraints

• However multi-modal is the way to ensure the ‘last mile’

• Continuity in capacity (containers) as well to ensure quality

Thank you!

谢谢各位!

session 5, multi-modal logistics - icao.int · prepared by d lenormand ho marketing – freighters...

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