session sponsor - milken institute€¦ · session sponsor. 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 80 75 70...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Session Sponsor - Milken Institute€¦ · Session Sponsor. 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 Percent Non-Financial Business Tangible Assets As Percent of All Assets,](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070921/5fba16bc4200a064ff0e9058/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Session Sponsor
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00959085807570656055
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
Percent
Non-Financial Business Tangible AssetsAs Percent of All Assets, 1955 - 2001
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Access to CapitalMilken Institute Capital Access Index
105.00Australia85.16New Zealand85.16Luxembourg
75.22Canada65.35Netherlands
55.38Switzerland45.43Singapore35.50United States25.59United Kingdom15.65Hong Kong2002 Rank2002 Score
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High Yield New IssuanceAnnual
0098969492908886848280
1000
800
600
400
200
0
200
150
100
50
0
Number of Issues US$ Billions
Number of New Issues - LValue of Issues - R
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0098969492908886848280
16
14
12
10
8
6
Percent
U.S. Average Yield at Issuance High-Yield Securities
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USUK
SwitzSweden
NorwayNether.
JapanGermany
FranceDenmark
CanadaAustralia
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Business Filings per Million People
Business Bankruptcies Per Capita
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00959085807570
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Percent Change, Year Ago
Consumers Dampen RecessionReal Consumer Spending
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2001200019991998199719961995
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Percent Change, Year Ago
ExportsImports
U.S. International TradeExports vs. Imports (Goods and Services)
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020098969492908886848280
130
120
110
100
90
80
Index March 1973=100
U.S. – Trade Weighted DollarReal Broad Dollar Index
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2001Q42001Q32001Q22001Q12000Q42000Q3
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Percent Change, Year Ago
Current CycleLast Cycle
Business InvestmentEquipment and Software
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Global GDP Growth2000 - 2002
Region 2000 2001 2002World 3.9 1.3 1.7U.S. 4.1 1.2 2.2Japan 2.4 -0.5 -1.0European Union 3.4 1.6 1.6Eastern Europe 6.8 4.0 2.9Asia-Pacific 6.5 3.3 5.0Latin America 3.9 0.3 0.3
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009896949290888684828078767472
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
Percent
Profits Margins - Lowest in Post-War!Profits as Share of Non-Financial Corporate GDP
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U.S. – Real GDP Growth1996 Prices
00959085807570
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Percent Change, Year Ago
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00959085807570
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
Billions of 96$
Massive Inventory LiquidationChange in Inventories
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00959085807570
90
85
80
75
70
65
Percent
Excess Factory CapacityManufacturing Capacity Utilization
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200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
US$ Trillions
Real EstateEquities & Mutual Funds
Real Estate Values Exceed Equities1990 - 2002
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2001200019991998
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
Percent Change, Year AgoNew OrdersUnfilled Orders
U.S. – Communications EquipmentOrders
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2001200019991998
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
Percent Change, Year AgoNew OrdersUnfilled Orders
U.S. – Electronic Components Orders
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2001200019991998
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
Percent Change, Year AgoNew OrdersUnfilled Orders
U.S. – Electronic Computers Orders
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2001200019991998
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
Percent Change, Year Ago
New OrdersUnfilled Orders
U.S. – Search & Navigation Equipment Orders
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2001200019991998
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
Percent Change, Year Ago
New OrdersUnfilled Orders
U.S. – Semiconductors Orders
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2002200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
PercentFed Funds Rate10-Year Government Bond
U.S. – Interest Rates Fed Funds Rate and 10-year Government Bond
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2002200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
Percent
U.S. – Yield Curve 10-year Government Bond minus Fed Funds Rate
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2002200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
Percent
U.S. – Corporate Spread Moody’s Corporate Aaa minus 10-year Treasury Bond
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20012000199919981997199619951994199319921991
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
Percent Change, Year Ago
U.S. – Labor Costs Unit Labor Costs – Business Sector
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20001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
25
20
15
10
5
0
US$ Billions
Individual Retirement AccountsEmployer-Sponsored Pension Plans
Mutual Fund Retirement Assets Individual & Employer-Sponsored Accounts
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200220012000199919981997199619951994199319921991
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Millions Percent Change, Year AgoCredit/Income - LCredit Growth - R
U.S. – Consumer Credit Credit/Income and Credit Growth
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200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
140
120
100
80
60
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
US$ Billions Percent Change, Year AgoInvestment Level - LPercent Change - R
U.S. Communications Equipment Private Fixed Investment
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200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
120
100
80
60
40
20
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
US$ Billions Percent Change, Year AgoInvestment Level - LPercent Change - R
U.S. Computer & Peripheral Equipment Private Fixed Investment
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200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
45
40
35
30
25
20
20
15
10
5
0
-5
US$ Billions Percent Change, Year AgoInvestment Level - LPercent Change - R
U.S. Instruments Private Fixed Investment
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200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
US$ Billions Percent Change, Year AgoInvestment Level - LPercent Change - R
U.S. Software Private Fixed Investment
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2002200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
8
7
6
5
4
3
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
Percent Percent Change, Year Ago
Unemployment Rate - LAverage Hourly Earnings - R
U.S. Wages and Unemployment Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment
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0098969492908886848280
10
8
6
4
2
0
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Thousands US$ Billions
Number of Deals - LValue of Deals - R
U.S. – Mergers & Acquisitions Total Value and Total Number of Deals Completed
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200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
US$ Billions, 1996Industrial StructuresCommercial Structures
U.S. Construction Real Industrial and Commercial Structures Investment
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00959085807570
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
U.S. Avg = 100
U.S. Housing Affordability Index Seasonally Adjusted
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00959085807570
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Percent Change, Year Ago
U.S. Industrial Production Industrial Production Index, FRB
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0098969492908886848280
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
Percent
U.S. Current Account Balance As Percent of GDP
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0098969492908886848280
80
60
40
20
0
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
US$ Billions PercentReserves Minus Gold - LReserves as % of GDP - R
U.S. Official Reserves Total Reserves Minus Gold and as Percent of GDP
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009590858075706560
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
Percent
U.S. Working Population Employment Relative to Working Age Population
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200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
US$ BillionsExportsImportsTrade Balance
U.S. Trade Balance Merchandise Exports, Imports and Balance
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0098969492908886848280
16
14
12
10
8
6
PercentExportsImports
U.S. Role of Trade As Percent of GDP
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0098969492908886848280
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
12
10
8
6
4
2
Percent US$ Trillions
Exports Plus Imports Share of GDP- LGDP - R
U.S. International Trade Exports Plus Imports as Percent of GDP
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200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Percent Change, Year Ago
MexicoOther Latin America
U.S. Exports to Latin America Merchandise Exports
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200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
Percent Change, Year AgoJapanWest EuropeCanada
U.S. Exports to G-8 Merchandise Exports
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200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Percent Change, Year Ago
CanadaMexico
U.S. Exports to NAFTA Merchandise Exports
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200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
40
20
0
-20
-40
Percent Change, Year Ago
U.S. Exports to Asia Asian Newly Industrialized Countries
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200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
8
7
6
5
4
3
Percent Change, Year Ago Percent
Estab. Employment - LUnemployment Rate - R
U.S. Unemployment Rate Employment Growth and Unemployment Rate
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200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
8
7
6
5
4
3
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
Percent Percent Change, Year Ago
Unemployment Rate - LAverage Hourly Earnings - R
U.S. Wages and Unemployment Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment
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Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2001 - 2002 2000 - 2001
Air Transactions
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1st Qrt '01 2nd Qrt '01 3rd Qrt '01 4th Qrt '01 1st Qrt '02
Current Period Prior Period
LodgingRevPAR
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Rental Car TransactionsMonthly
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2001 - 2002 2000 - 2001
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Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2001 - 2002 2000 - 2001
Timeshare Activity(Exchanges/Tours)
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Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2001 - 2002 2000 - 2001
Real EstateOpen Contracts To Buy
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Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2001 - 2002 2000 - 2001
Mortgage Applications
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Jim SchroerExecutive Vice President
Global Marketing, Sales and Service
U.S. Economy: Still the Strongest Kid on the Block
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U. S. Auto Industry drives the National Economy
• Directly employs more than 1.3 million Americans • Creates more than 2.2 million additional jobs through dealers,
suppliers, and other auto-related companies • Expenditures of auto industry employees create an additional
3.1 million jobs nationwide • Total: 6.6 million jobs in 50 states - about five percent of all
private-sector jobs in the United States
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U.S. Auto Industry Employment - Direct and Spin-off Jobs
America’s Automobile IndustryDriving the Economy in all 50 States
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• Since 1987, the U. S. auto industry has grown by more than 47 percent
• The auto industry invests more in research and
development than any other industry (approximately $18 billion annually)
• More that 3.7 percent of GDP is generated by the production
and sale of new light vehicles • Motor vehicle manufacturing ranks among the top four
industries in terms of value added per employee – the auto industry’s level of $137,000 per worker was 47 percent higher than U. S. manufacturing’s average of $93,000
• 95 percent of personal vehicle miles traveled in the United
States are made in personal motor vehicles, as opposed to public transportation of all types
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PolandIndia
AustraliaRussia
KoreaBrazil
CanadaSpain
ChinaUK
ItalyFrance
GermanyJapan
US
20
15
10
5
0
Millions of Vehicles
Vehicle Sales in Major Countries1999
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C. Rep.Poland
RussiaBrazil
MexicoItaly
ChinaUK
KoreaSpain
CanadaFrance
GermanyJapan
US
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Millions of Vehicles
Vehicle Production in Major Countries1999
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U.S. Light Vehicle Production 1990 -1999
1,5000
Vehicles
3,0004,5006,0007,5009,000
10,50012,00013,50015,00016,500
Cars
Light Trucks
9091
9293
9495
9697
9899
9,5433,4666,077
3,1765,439 8,615
3,8085,664 9,472
4,6085,981 10,589
5,3226,614 11,936
5,3066,351 11,657
5,4486,083 11,531
5,8585,972 11,785
6,0135,556 11,569
7,0255,632 12,657
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Passenger Car vs. Light Truck SalesIn 36 states, consumers favor light trucks
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How DaimlerChrysler impacted the American economy in 2001
• $7,927,396,883 paid in annual wages to 108,317 employees in 50 states
• $94,047,242 paid in benefits
• $673,672,313 paid in state taxes
• 4,319 dealers nationwide (4,319 x 500=2,159.500 x $20,000 = $43,190,000,000 retail)
• 7,364 suppliers nationwide
• $32,303,010,753 paid to suppliers
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Overview of Sales Activities in the NAFTA Region (2001)
Retail Sales(in 1000 Units)
Market Share(in percent)
MB P.C.Chrysler GroupCVDMitsubishiDCS
MB P.C.Chrysler**FL Class 6&7FL Class 8Mitsubishi
U.S.A Canada Mexico Total
206.6
98.62,273.2
11.9
8.1245.6
3.8
10.2130.4
222.3
116.92,649.2
1.613.023.331.8
0.915.411.523.0
1.614.222.613.9
1.513.322.629.2
*Vehicle Total
747.7 63.5 52.3 863.5322
1.9 N/A N/A 1.9
N/A N/A 322
3,310.4*
**Automotive Total
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What Propels the U.S. Auto Industry?
Cost
Quality
U.S. Japan
Innovationin Vehicles
Yen Advantage
Working Hard to Close Gap
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