seth naeve soybean agronomist naeve002@umn naeve soybean agronomist ... longer season soybean...

MN SOYBEAN PRODUCTION WEBSITE > WWW.SOYBEANS.UMN.EDU

Variety Selection:Bottlenecks, branding, resistance management and quality issues

Seth NaeveSoybean [email protected]


This ethanol thing is crazy, eh?


Importance of variety selection

Forget about corn-on-cornThis is the single most important decision that you will make on your farm


For what should one be selecting?

For total yield Yield PotentialYield Stability

Defensive traits including disease resistanceQuality traits

Premiums/DiscountsLong-term market access and price issues

Disease resistance For resistance management


Diversify

Diversify everything that you can (except yield potential)

GeneticsSource (seed company)Sources of pest resistanceMaturity

Rotate – Rotate – RotateCrops, resistances, varieties


Diversifying maturity

Varieties that vary by maturity will not be “identical”…

… but they could be “sisters”Diversifying across maturities provides some level of risk diversificationAlthough some have good reason for growing short season varieties, adding one or more longer varieties will provide better risk avoidance.


Some can push maturity a bitLonger season soybean varieties may have a longer seed-filling period

Risk avoidance strategy to take advantage of good environments and avoid bad ones

They may put on an extra nodeCool night temperatures will push them toward maturity so risk of frost or freeze injury is very low.Most likely to produce a benefit when planted early or in “warm” soils


Where to go for variety informationwww.soybeans.umn.eduOther state variety testing programs

http://soybean.uwex.edu/http://www.css.msu.edu/varietytrials/soybean/ Soybean_Home_Page.htmhttp://plantsci.sdstate.edu/varietytrials/http://www.ag.ndsu.nodak.edu/aginfo/variety/ soybean.htm


Where to go for variety informationFIRST Trials

http://www.firstseedtests.com/Soybean Variety Selector 2007

http://www.worldsbestbeans.com/


Looking for Yield?How to use this information

Diversify you portfolioLook for race horses.

Varieties that performed perfectly in a single test (2-3 locations)

Look for plow horses (varieties with yield stability)

Varieties that performed well in several tests.Look for defensive traits to place in specific fields


Where to go (last) for variety informationStrip trials

Coop or elevator plotsCounty plotsSeed dealer plots

Your own farm – believe it or not.Mean performance of a variety at other locations is a better predictor of performance at a single location than yield data from that one location


Co-branding of seed:Same variety – different company?

Seed industry is extremely bottleneckedDiversifying seed by company doesn’t guarantee diversification of geneticsUse the U of M variety trials publication

Review varieties for maturity date, yield, chlorosis score, Phytophtora gene, protein and oil

Pay attention to seed industry consolidationsBefriend someone in the seed industry


Variety Maturityested sitesNon-infest Percent of MeanMaturityytophthoChlorosis SCN or Brand Originator Date 2006 2006 Protein Oil Rating Gene Score RatingK-188RR/SCN Kruger 9-28 115 109 96 103 1.7 Rps1k 3.3 R181CNR Anderson Seeds 9-28 112 105 95 106 1.7 Rps1k 3.5 RPB-1885NRR Prairie Brand 9-28 110 106 95 106 1.8 Rps1k 3.3 RE2085R Latham 9-28 109 110 97 102 - Rps1c 4.0 RK-195+RR/SCN Kruger 9-28 108 114 98 105 2.0 Rps1k 3.3 RSOI1874NRR Sands of Iowa 9-28 108 106 95 106 1.8 Rps1k 3.8 RW2172NRR Wensman 9-28 107 116 96 105 1.7 Rps1k 3.3 R2717NRR Gold Country 9-28 98 104 98 105 1.7 Rps1k 3.4 R191CNR Anderson Seeds 9-29 117 107 97 104 1.9 Rps1k 3.4 R33X19 Dyna-Gro 9-29 117 97 96 105 1.9 Rps1k 3.3 RSOI2151NRR Sands of Iowa 9-29 112 108 98 104 2.1 Rps1k 3.5 RW2195NRR Wensman 9-29 111 107 97 105 1.9 Rps1k 2.9 RNT-2222RR/SCN NuTech 9-29 108 109 97 106 2.0 Rps1k 3.2 RPB-2183NRR Prairie Brand 9-29 108 100 96 106 2.0 Rps1k 3.3 RM-194NRR Mustang 9-29 107 105 97 106 1.9 Rps1k 3.4 RAG2107 Asgrow 9-29 107 106 99 105 2.1 N 3.3 RNT-1808RR/SCN NuTech 9-29 105 104 97 102 1.6 Rps1c 4.0 RT-7193RR/SCN Thompson Seeds 9-29 105 106 98 104 1.6 Rps1k 3.3 R2202 Trelay 9-29 104 102 97 106 2.0 Rps1k 3.0 RMean 9-29 41.4 bu/a 56.4 bu/a35.0% 17.3%LSD 20% 9% 8%

“Look alike” 1.8-2.0 RM SCN varieties


Co-branding of seed:Same variety – different company?

Examine the seed tagsLook for common variety name AND actual “variety name”vistit US patent and trademark office at http://www.uspto.gov/patft/Search under “issued patents” and “applications”


Selecting varieties based on quality

There are some opportunities to be paid a premium for high quality soybeans

IP soybeans for export marketsPrimarily food grade specialty varieties, but there are still some “non-GMO” opportunities

Organic (and IP) soybeans primarily for exportHigh protein or oil varieties for domestic crushLow linolenic varietiesother


MnSP – Brewster –premium program

Protein % Premium Oil % Premium19.5 $0.05 35.0 $0.0519.6 $0.06 35.5 $0.0619.7 $0.07 36.0 $0.0719.8 $0.08 36.5 $0.0819.9 $0.09 37.0 $0.0920.0 $0.10 37.5 $0.10

with 18.5 and 34.4% minimums for P & O


CHS – Fairmont and Mankatopremium program

Protein % Premium Oil % Premium19.1 $0.01 35.0 $0.0119.3 $0.02 35.5 $0.0219.5 $0.03 36.0 $0.0319.7 $0.04 36.5 $0.0419.9 $0.05 37.0 $0.0520.1 $0.06 37.5 $0.60

20.3+ $0.07 38.0+ $0.07with 18.5 and 34.5% minimums for P & O


Low linolenic soybean varieties

The low-lin market allows a record number of producers to participate in a IP marketMost varieties are adapted to “I” states, but some Monsanto (Vistive) contracts are available in southern MN.Contracts are not designed to make producers rich, but they can be fair

@ $0.40 (and $6.50 beans) you can take a 6% yield hit to break even


Does quality matter?

Should producers be choosing varieties based on protein and oil levels when IP markets and premium programs are not available?

Probably not, unless all other agronomic and price factors are equal

This is an awareness issue that we all need to pay some attention to

We must be aware of what our customers want, and be prepared to give it to them.


Importance of Soybean to Minnesota and the World

MN ranks third in the nation in total production behind Iowa and Illinois – 306M bushels (8.3MMT) in 2005Cash receipts for MN farmers totaled $1.6B in 2004: corn = $1.8B and Hogs = $1.7BSoybean is MN’s #1 Export – it represents 31% of MN exports ($877M of $2.9B)

Source – 2006 National Agricultural Statistics Service - USDA


Soybean Composition - Protein

Year2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

% P

rote

in

33.5

34.0

34.5

35.0

35.5

36.0

36.5

37.0

BrazilUS GulfUS PNW Source: Central Union Oil Company, Taiwan


Soybean Composition - Oil

Year2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

% O

il

18.0

18.5

19.0

19.5

20.0

20.5

21.0

BrazilUS GulfUS PNW Source: Central Union Oil Company, Taiwan


Crushing Margin Differences

54.4546.8951.37Crushing Margin (USD/Metric ton)

79.06 80.44 80.00 Soybean meal yield (%)

20.1818.0619.12Degummed oil yield (%)

BrazilPNWGulfItem

Assuming 36.7 bu / MgGulf – PNW 12 ¢ / buBrazil – PNW 21 ¢ / bu12¢ x 306M bu (2005 MN prod) $36.7M

Source: Central Union Oil Company, Taiwan


Low protein impacts on exports – China Scenario

Soybean exports from the Pacific Northwest are crucial Minnesota (and SD and ND) producers

What if we lost the China volume from the PNW? 62% of the soybean volume that leaves the PNW goes to China 34% of China's soybean export volume from the United States comes from the PNW


Loosing Chinese exports from the PNW due to low quality

U.S. soybean export demand would drop by 89.55 million bushels (8.2 percent of total U.S. exports) Economic impact on U.S. soybeans (based on historical price response)

Prices could drop by 42 cents/bushel Acres could drop by 990,000 acres Production could drop by 42 million bushels Production value could drop by $1.450 billion


China scenarioNearly 100% of the weight of this hypothetical affect would be upon the upper Midwest –Primarily Minnesota and the DakotasAlthough Biodiesel promises to be good for US soybean producers, we cannot ignore our international trading partnersWe must continue to provide soybeans with reasonable protein levels for our international customers


What are we doing about trade and exports?

US Soybean Quality SurveySeth Naeve and Jim Orf~1800 samples from US producers in 2006We carry the results to our buyers in Asia each winter

China, Taiwan, Korea, and JapanResults are distributed to all ASA International Marketing offices and to all purchasers

Educational effort


2006 Soybean QualitySoybean quality was very similar to that seen in 2005Protein was about 0.6 percentage point lower (34.5%)Oil was about 0.2 percentage point lower (19.2%)Within soybean producing regions few differences were noted from the 2005 season, except in several southern states where protein levels were more than 1 percentage point lower in 2006


Thank you

Questions?

Seth [email protected]


Inland-U.S. Logistics –intermodal ramps

UPRRChicago / Rochelle, IL Los AngelesCouncil Bluffs, IA Long BeachKansas City OaklandSt. Louis / Dupo PortlandMarion, AR SeattleN. Little Rock

CPRRSchiller Park, ILBensenville, IL Montreal. QCDetroit Vancouver. BCMinneapolisMilwaukee

CNRRChicago Vancouver, BCDetroit Halifax, NSE. Peoria, IL Montreal, QCMemphis New OrleansArcadia, WI Mobile

St. John, NB

Ports

Ports

Ports

Ports

BNSFOmaha, NEMemphis, TNHarvard, AR SeattleSt. Louis TacomaKansas City PortlandChicago / Cicero Los AngelesChicago / Corwith Long BeachChicago / Willow Sprgs OaklandChicago / Logistics Pk.St. PaulDilworth, MN

PLC Pollock Logistics Consulting


Intermodal ramps – 80 km draw

Candidate Westbound Ramps

Candidate Westbound Ramps

Westbound

PLC Pollock Logistics Consulting


Protein and Oil from selected intermodal ramps

Fargo, ND Chicago, IL Kansas City, MO Memphis, TN

Protein (%) 33.6 34.4 35.3 36.6

Oil (%) 19.6 19.2 18.6 19.9


Low linolenic soybeans

Soybean oil is made up of five major fatty acids, palmitic, stearic, oleic, linoleic and linolenic. Linolenic acid is oxidatively unstable; therefore, soybean oil is often partially hydrogenated to reduce linolenic levels and thereby reduce potential rancidity. This process creates trans-isomers of the resulting fatty acids.


Linolenic acid


Linolenic to Elaidic acid



Interest in trans-fat increased significantly when the U.S. government began requiring packaged-food companies to disclose trans-fat content of their products beginning in January 2006.The U.S. government was concerned about the adverse effects of trans-fats in the American diet, which is high in overall high fat content, including a significant portion that is from packaged foods.

New York City Poster



Several US Universities and seed companies have developed soybean varieties that are naturally low (1 to 3% rather than 8%) in linolenic fatty acids. The oil from these soybeans can be utilized in food and baking industries without partial hydrogenation. Therefore, these varieties can be used to make products labeled “trans-fat free.” In 2006 Monsanto, Pioneer, and Asoyia companies contracted with farmers to produce about 300,000 hectares of low linolenic soybeans.

seth naeve soybean agronomist naeve002@umn naeve soybean agronomist ... longer season soybean...

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