Setting Priorities for Development of New and

Improved Climate Products BY JIM O’BRIEN

COAPS,FSU

WHO ARE THE USERS?

ARE THEY WEATHER FOLKS OR

CLIMATE USERS?

IF A USER DECIDES TO USE A CLIMATE FORECAST, SHOULD HE KNOW THE SKILL OR ERROR BARS OF THE PRODUCT?

What are standard variables?The standard “weather variables” are:

1) Temperature - Hourly, daily, maximum and minimum, monthly, annual

2) Atmospheric Pressure3) Rainfall - Hourly, daily, monthly, etc., rainfall rates4) Humidity - Specific humidity, relative humidity, wet-bulb

temperature, etc.5) Winds - Wind speed and direction, wind components

Most clients need derived information. EXAMPLES:

Wind Climatology

Impact Freezes of the last century

Freeze Date ENSO State *Dec 1894 Neutral Feb 1899 Neutral Dec 1934 Neutral Jan 1940 Neutral *Dec 1961 Neutral Jan 1977 El Nino Jan 1981 Neutral *Dec 1983 Neutral Jan 1985 Neutral *Dec 1989 Neutral Jan 1997 Neutral

* High Impact

ENSO and Florida FreezeProbabilites

Extended Freeze Events

La Niña and Wildfires

• La Niña brings drier than normal conditions (30%-40%) and warmer temperatures from November through April.

• Wildfire activity is increased throughout the wildfire season.

• The increased activity can be expected during nearly all La Niña episodes.

Anomalous Wildfire activity

(acres burned) during La Niña

episodes

April

Wildfire Threat forecast

• Based on the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI)

SECC Partners

Florida State Univeristy – climate studies, coupled modeling, climate forecasts, forestry

University of Florida – extension, crop modeling, decision support tools

University of Miami – climate, economics, water resources, assessment

University of Georgia – climate, extension, crop modeling,assessment

University of Auburn – extension, economics, insurance

University of Alabama Huntsville – climate, water resources

Ag Impacts in Florida, SE USA

• Crop yield– Drought– Excess rainfall– Freeze

• Quality of produce• Costs of production• Profit risks• Environmental concerns

Crop Yield Variability

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Percent yield increaseLa Niña neutral El Niño

Tomato

Impacts of hundreds of millions of dollar in Florida, documented by Florida Dept. of Agr & Consumer Services, various research papers

ENSO effects on production of crops in Florida

Tangerine

El Niño Neutral La Niña-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Percent yield change

Field Corn

El Niño Neutral La Niña-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Percent yield change

Winter Tomato

El Niño Neutral La Niña-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Percent yield change

Managing Risks Associated with Climate Variability using Forecasts

• Irrigation and drainage• Change variety, planting date, fertilizer

program, irrigation• Winter pasture vs. hay purchase• Scheduling operations• Crop insurance decisions• Marketing decisions• Wildfire management, burning• Reducing environmental risks

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Percent yield increaseLa Niña neutral El Niño

Bell pepper

Se.AgClimate.org

• Web-based system being developed in partnership with Extension by the South East Climate Consortium (SECC) with support from NOAA and USDA-RMA

• Will deliver climate-related information for decision makers in agriculture and natural resources

Some Tools in AgClimate

• Climate Forecast– Rainfall– Temperature (max and min)– Frost

• Drought– KBDI (Forest fire risk, mosquito control)– LGI (research in progress)

• Crop Yield• Crop Development

Climate forecast information is provided base on the current and projected state of the tropical Pacific Ocean.

AgClimate now displays rainfall anomalies for AgClimate now displays rainfall anomalies for El Nino phase in Polk County, FL.El Nino phase in Polk County, FL.

Probabilistic climate forecast information is Probabilistic climate forecast information is displayed as probability density and probability displayed as probability density and probability of exceedenceof exceedencegraphs (showngraphs (shownFor Polk Cty, FL).For Polk Cty, FL).

Chill Unit Accumulation

• Blueberries

• Strawberries

• Peaches

• Wheat

Chill-Hour Forecasts for

Fruit Production

Chill Units – Peach, Alachua County, FL

El Nino Years1,261 Chill Units on average

Chill Units – Peach, Alachua County, FL

La Nina Years1,058 Chill Units on average

Signals weak in N GA & AL

Higher chill with El Niño; Lower chill with La Niña.

El Niño Anomolies

ninoanom-78 - 0

1 - 100

101 - 200

201 - 300

La Niña Anomoliesninaanom

-306 - -300

-299 - -200

-199 - -100

-99 - 0

1 - 100

101 - 200

WHAT IS THE FUTURE IN CLIMATE SERVICES?

Learn what users need-not what they want!

Build cooperation with RCC’S,SC’S,RISA’S and others (SECC HAS COOP PROGRAM WITH CPC!)

Provide derived variables for climate users

Calculate error bars for probability forecasts

Tercile forecasts have limited value for users

For More Information:

Visit Our Websites

COAPS: www.coaps.fsu.edu

Florida Climate Center:

www.coaps.fsu.edu/climate_center

Florida Automated Weather Network:

fawn.ifas.ufl.edu

THE END