SETTING : INTRODUCTION At the end of March 1997, anomalous conditions were present in both the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, and during May these anomalies and their interactions confirmed the development of an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (warm) event that lasted until June 1998. Its evolution was similar to other events but its timing was different. The 1997-98 El Niño event could be catalogued as the strongest of the 20th century, surpassing the anomalies and impacts associated with the 1982-83 event. After June 1998, the ocean-atmosphere conditions reverted to average conditions, and then the opposite situation occurred with the development of a prolonged moderate La Niña (cold) event that lasted until October 2000. Information on the evolution of the 1997-98 El Niño event and its probable impacts was disseminated through different pathways within the Trade Convergence Climate Complex net (TC3) region (See Annex 1): - World wide web sites (http://www.cathalac.org/web-esp/new.htm) - Local, regional and international workshops - Press conferences, newspapers, interviews, reports - Cartoon-type literature, both on the physical aspects of the event and on its impact on socioeconomic sectors This was possible because the positive and negative impacts of previous El Niño and La Niña events had been identified prior to their most recent occurrence. The responses to the information provided within the TC3 region, which encompasses actions for impact mitigation, varied depending on the socioeconomic sector affected, on whether or not the sector was under the umbrella of a government agency, and also on the country affected. In the case of Ecuador the most important impacts are related to an increase of precipitation. Rossel (1997) established the level and limits of El Niño’s influences over the hydrologic and precipitation regimes of Ecuador, applying principal component analysis to 226 meteorological stations with over 20 years of observations. His main results show a distinctive pattern of El Niño influence over the country with three well-defined regions (Rossel, 1997): strong, medium and non-significant influence. As can be seen in Figure 1,

Limits of ENSO influence. Red and blue dots represent locations of meteorological stations; red indicates coastal region, blue indicates Andes Mountains region.

Source: Rosell, 1998 these regions correspond to (i) the coastal plains; (ii) the northern part of the coast and the foothills of the Andes; and (iii) the Andean Region. Based on this information we are analyzing El Niño impacts on the socioeconomic sectors of the coastal plains where its influence is very strong. The information is presented in some cases by province (Figure 2).

Political division of Ecuador by provinces.

Source: http://www.ciudadfutura.com/ecuador/nmapol.htm Also, based on the Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLA or CEPAL in Spanish, 1983; 1998) report on El Niño’s impacts on Ecuador (Table 1) and on our own experience from previous events, we focus our assessment on microeconomics and demographics, health, agriculture, and aquaculture and fisheries. Microeconomics and demographics were chosen for review because they give a better picture of the impacts on population. Agriculture and aquaculture and fisheries were chosen for review because 58% of Ecuador’s income comes mostly from bananas, shrimp aquaculture and fisheries exports. The health sector was selected because the Ecuadorian government mainly manages this sector. Several assessment analyses on the infrastructure sector have already been performed as part of funding and aid agency requirements (CORPECUADOR, 2000). 1. What is the socioeconomic setting of your country? (Include a brief description of the government mechanisms for dealing with climate-related impacts; the ministries, task forces, and public safety mechanisms, etc.)

The Social, Political and Economical Situation Before the 1997-98 El Niño The mid-1990s proved to be a difficult time for Ecuador and Ecuadorians. During 1995, the dispute between Ecuador and Peru over their international border switched from a verbal conflict to a full-scale war along their common contested border. By mid-year, peace talks were sought by the guarantors of the treaty between both countries (The Rio de Janeiro Treaty), but peace was not reached until 1999. The Vice President at the time, Alberto Dahik, fled from the country, accused of mismanagement of governmental funds. The campaign of the presidential candidates started. By June 1996, Abdala Bucaram was elected president (his term started in August 1996). Bucaram lasted until February 1997, when the army overthrew him. Fabian Alarcon, president of the Congress, was appointed president. Again, a presidential election was held and Jamil Mahuad became president in August 1998. He lasted until January 2000. The political instability--four presidents between 1996 and 1998--took its toll when El Niño came in 1997. It is customary in Ecuador that the maintenance of roads, water channels, and dams at the coastal plain starts once the rainy season ends, around May or June. However, this was not done in 1996 or in 1997. Also, most of the development programs were postponed and the economical situation of the country was not the best. With regard to the economical situation we have to point out the following: - Ecuador had a dispute with the European Community (EC) through the World Trade

Organization. The EC had placed a quota on Ecuador’s banana exports in order to benefit the former colonies of some of its members. Simultaneously, there was an increase in the number of small banana producers and the prices for bananas were low.

- Petroleum prices were also low during the mid-1990s and decreased around 2% during 1997. They represented 42% of Ecuador’s export earnings. - The shrimp sector was stable in spite of 1996 having been a “cold” year. It benefitted from the 1997-98 El Niño with an increase of 40% in exports. During March 25, 1997 there was heavy rainfall in Guayaquil1 that caused over $10 million US dollars in damages paid by insurance companies.2 Damage can be assumed to have been much higher, as not everyone was insured. One of its upper-class neighborhoods was flooded for two days. So, when an El Niño occurrence of unknown magnitude and duration was announced by ESPOL in a press report on 31 May 1997 (it called for a press conference on 3 June 1997), the private and government sectors became alarmed. The governmental response was quick, but not effective. On 2 July 1997, the president declared a National Emergency under the National Security Law, giving the National Civil Defense the power to coordinate any and all actions to cope with El Niño. A contingency plan was approved by July 1997. A permanent committee for the coordination of actions to cope with the El Niño phenomenon was formed and named COPEFEN (in Spanish, Comite Para Enfrentar el Fenomeno de El Niño). COPEFEN was created by presidential executive decree # 740 on 13 October 1997 as a unit that belongs to the presidential office. It would coordinate all actions: technical, administrative, financial, and operational. Some of the governmental institutions belonging to COPEFEN are these: ministries of Agriculture, Social Welfare, Urban Development and Housing, Finance and Public Credit, Public Services, Foreign Affairs, Health, the Social Investment Fund (FISE), the National Civil Defense, and the National Institute for Children (INNFA). In April 1998 COPEFEN acquired operative and financial capacity. Due to information about corruption spread by different media about the international funds

1 The largest city in the country, 2.5 million inhabitants, 21% of the country’s population 2 The monthly mean is 269.8-± 28.7 mm and it rained 490.2mm during the month.

received to cope with El Niño, the vice-president of the republic was appointed as COPEFEN coordinator. Several campaigns were launched to disseminate information about the potential impacts of El Niño on the area of direct impact (Figure 1). Some prevention campaigns were started as early as June 1997 in the Health sector. The agriculture campaign did not start in July. By August, the major of Guayaquil, along with other public offices such as the potable-water provider, started the first campaign with a slogan of, “Cuidando tu ciudad cuidas tu vida” that means, “Taking care of your city you take care of your life”. During September the shrimp sector asked for a special line of credit. Also during September, the National Civil Defense started evacuation demonstrations at all sites prone to problems such as mudslides and flooding. During December 1997, another campaign name,“Cruzada de Solidaridad Unidos… Porque después de la lluvia sale el sol”, which means “United Solidarity Crusade because after the rain the sun shines”. 2. What are the climate-related and other natural hazards affecting your country? (List them in order of concern.) OTHER NATURAL HAZARDS Besides El Niño, there are not other climate-related hazards, except if we consider La Niña as the cold phase of the ENSO cycle. La Niña has an effect on the precipitation in the Andean region, and the cooling of oceanic water (e.g., non-El Niño conditions), has a negative impact on the availability of wild shrimp larvae along the Ecuadorian coast and on shrimp exports. Most of the impacts of La Niña are unknown, since the cold phase is not of the same order of magnitude as El Niño (the warm phase). Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions also affect Ecuador. Volcanoes are concentrated in the Andean region. At the end of 1998, two volcanoes had become active, one in Quito (called Guagua Pichincha), and the second by Baños in a tourism region near Riobamba and Ambato (called Tungurahua). The action of the National Civil Defense with the army was very efficient in evacuating the people from dangerous areas (Baños), and their local governments acted fast getting the international scientific community to work along with local scientists on the analysis of the dangers to the population. It seems that governmental responses to localized problems are well organized and fast, especially when they are nearby the central government (Figure 2).

3. What was the level of scientific research in your country relating to El Niño? THE ECUADORIAN SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY AND ENSO There are several organizations, private and governmental, that study ENSO from different points of view. Oceanography became an important topic during the beginning of the 1970s when UNESCO funded several programs in Ecuador to develop this field and El Niño, as it was known then, became one of its topics. The first Ecuadorian oceanographer (Calderón, 1975) presented a B.Sc. thesis on the variability of meteorological and oceanographic parameters at La Libertad (on the Ecuadorian coast) and San Cristobal in the Galapagos Islands in 1975 depicting its relationship with El Niño.3 At the same time, the Navy Oceanographic Institute (INOCAR) started its work with human resources from ESPOL and other local and foreign universities and centers. Several regional and international programs appeared. One of them, the Permanent Commission for the South Pacific (CPPS in Spanish) was created in 1975. It is a regional program with Peru, Chile, Colombia and Ecuador as members. As one of its programs, ERFEN (in Spanish, the Regional Study of the El Niño Phenomenon) studies the physics of El Niño and its impacts on fisheries and other biological resources of the region. Other institutions that work on El Niño and its impacts, besides ESPOL and INOCAR are the following: National Institute of Fisheries (INP), University of Guayaquil, CENAIM, and the Catholic University of Guayaquil, among others. In terms of scientific products, most of the materials could be considered Grey literature because it has been published locally in three main journals: Tecnologica (by ESPOL), Acta Oceanografica (by INOCAR) and the INP’s newsletter. Also, there are many reports and bulletins with information about ENSO. Some of them are listed in Annex 2. In addition to the local scientific research output, there are also some international projects. For example, at ESPOL there are studies of El Nîño and its impacts on various socioeconomic sectors that are currently being funded by different international agencies. (Please refer to Annex 3). 4. Identify and document (with citations, if possible) the historical interest, if any, in the country (popular, political, media, etc.) in El Niño before the onset of the forecast and/or impact of the 1997-98 event. The historical interest on El Niño in the country dates from the 1982-83 event, when the magnitude of the impacts was large. After this event, from time to time information about El Niño and its studies would appear in the local news. These news programs provided local and international information. Local news were related mostly to reports on the meetings of the Permanent South Pacific Commission (Comision Permanente del Pacifico Sur, CPPS in Spanish); to specific information about fisheries; and to periodic research cruises by the Ecuadorian Navy (INOCAR). International news about El Niño came mostly from the US press. Especially after the arrival of Cable TV, people (middle and upper economic classes) started developing some interest in climate-related hazards. Usually, the published information and public interest were based on the information provided by the research institution noted above. As mentioned earlier, there was a debate about an ENSO (warm phase) coming after the extraordinary rainfall of 25 March 1997. This heavy rainfall episode, however, could not really be attributed to El Niño. We were able to trace El Niño-related news reports in local newspapers since 31 May 1997 (See Annex 4). Interestingly, El Niño, defined as a warm oceanic current, has been mentioned in geography textbooks for high school students since the early 1970s. The most important news references to El Niño before the onset of the forecast 3 The Escuela Superior Politecnica del Litoral (ESPOL) began to offer a B.Sc. program in Oceanography at the beginning of the 1970s.

and/or impacts of the 1997-98 event are shown in Table 2. (These are extracted from Annex 4). (Also, see UNFAO workshop, December 1974) 1997-98 EVENT : 1.Trace the flow of information on the 1997-98 El Niño within your country, using the following guidelines: a. When did the various agencies first hear about this developing El Niño? b. Where did the information come from? c. When did they first hear it would be a strong event? From whom? d. Which agencies first received the information? Everybody through press e. Were these the appropriate agencies to first receive the information? Not applicable really. f. How was the information obtained? g. How was the information transmitted? h. How did the media first report the developing El Niño? i. How did the media cover the event over time? (Quote headlines, names of radio stations, TV programs, etc., with dates.) j. Was the 1997-98 compared with any previous events? - A) The information flow started in June 1997, after ESPOL held a press conference at the end of

May to talk about an ENSO warm event developing in the Pacific (See Annex 5). Prior to the press conference a summary report had been sent out with some of the most relevant information about the event. The onset of the event was confirmed, but its magnitude and duration could not be identified at that time. Some of the projected impacts were expected to be mitigated.

- B) The information initially came from ESPOL at the late May press conference. By the end of

July, ESPOL confirmed that there would be a moderate-to-strong event with a low chance of being similar to the El Niño that began in 1982 (31/7/97, El Universo newspaper). There was a CPPS meeting in August 1997 in Guayaquil (Ecuador), where the group confirmed the occurrence of the event (3/8/97, El Universo). Later, this was confirmed by the Ecuadorian Institute of Navy Oceanography (INOCAR). After this date, the National ERFEN (Estudio Regional del Fenomeno de El Niño, part of CPPS) met periodically (fortnightly) to discuss the evolution of the event, to provide information about its probable impacts and to inform the government and the media.

- C) During the press conference held by ESPOL at the end of May 1997, it was stressed that the

magnitude and duration of the emerging ENSO warm event could not be foreseen at that time. However, a TV broadcast by Channel 12-Guayaquil (Fausto Valdivieso) indicated that it would be as strong as the 1982-83 (NB: It was in fact a wild guess). They also showed images of houses along the California coast being destroyed by huge waves during 1982-83, and houses under water along the inundated flood plains of the Mississippi River system during the 1990s.

- D) It is very difficult to identify which government agency or ministry received the information first

and from whom, but in general information was radiated from the Guayas Province, specifically from Guayaquil, to the rest of the country.4 One of the problems is that information about El Niño and its development was given to the general public and, later on, its dissemination depended on the demand of governmental institutions. The governmental agencies heard the news in June, and in July a National Emergency was declared. Then, the research institutions (ESPOL,

4 Most of the institutions that form ERFEN, are located in Guayaquil or they have an office there.

INOCAR and the ERFEN-CPPS group) started to provide information about the ENSO warm event, and its development to the government and the private sector. Several ministry reports show responses to this information. For example, the Ministry of Public Construction (MOP) showed a list of emergency work needed to mitigate and prevent El Niño impacts on highways (MOP, 1997). The Ministry of Housing started to develop plans as early as 2 July 1997 (MIDUVI, 1997).

? ? E) One of the problems with handling the information relates to how it was used and not whether

the appropriate agencies received the information first. Once the emergency was declared, the National Civil Defense was in charge, but its authority was surpassed several times by the President of Ecuador through COPEFEN and by regional government. In spite of this, all the ministries involved in COPEFEN started developing contingency plans, while funds were obtained from several international cooperation agencies. Also, the different Ministry reports do show knowledge of the event--its evolution, its potential impact and the responses needed (e.g., MOP, 1997; MIDUVI, 1997; VICE PRESIDENT REPORT, 1998).

- F) After July 1997, the different agencies in charge of studying El Niño started issuing

information about it: ESPOL, INOCAR, INP and the meteorological service (INAMHI). After August 1997, information to the government was channeled through the ERFEN-CPPS group; complementary information was given upon request to any institution that demanded it. During the first three months (May through July) some of the information that had been provided was the opposite of what was happening and, sometimes, different members of the same institution provided information that contradicted each other. The press showed some of the information that had been provided, giving the impression of conditions that would be worse than expected. As an anecdote, David Enfield (from NOAA /AOML, Miami, Florida, a US oceanographer well known in Ecuador), was invited to give his opinion to the private sector at a conference held in July. While giving his talk, a heavy rainfall was so loud that the audience became convinced at once. Whereas climatological mean for July is 10.7mm, 78.3mm of rain fell in July 1997.5

- G) Information on the evolution of the 1997-98 event and its probable impacts was disseminated

through different pathways within the TC3net (Trade Convergence Climate Complex) region.

Source: Water Center for the Humid Tropics of Latin America and the Caribbean website: http://www.cathalac.org/

? ? Included were the following sources: - World wide web sites (e.g., http://www.cathalac.org/web-esp/new.htm), 5 For this particular month, July 1983 has the record high precipitation amount with 291.5mm

- Local, regional and international workshops, - Press conferences, newspaper reports, and - Some cartoon-type literature, both on the physical aspects of the event and on its impacts on socioeconomic sectors.

This was possible, because the positive and negative impacts of previous El Niño and La Niña events had been identified prior to the 1997-98 occurrence. The responses to the information provided within the TC3 region, i.e., the actions taken for impact mitigation, varied depending on the socioeconomic sector affected, on whether the sector was under the “umbrella” of a government agency or not, and also on the regions affected. Also, the National ERFEN-CPPS Committee6 provided most of the information to the governmental sector after August 1997. This committee met at least fortnightly and provided a report to the government and the media. Reports were also tailored to the specific needs of information to users in different socioeconomic sectors like those published by ESPOL, CENAIM and TC3 on the World Wide Web, and those published by ESPOL alone. A distribution list was compiled, made up of groups that have expressed an interest in being updated periodically and those that ESPOL researchers thought might find the information useful such as local and provincial governments and health offices. There were also press conferences, workshops and one-day seminars given along the coastal area. CENAIM7, the Shrimp Club (a private organization), and the National Aquaculture Chamber (CAN) were keen to support one-day seminars (more than 6 of them were held from September 1997 through June 1998) at different locations. These seminars were conducted in order to spread information about the impacts of El Niño on the sector and on the general population.

? ? H) The first ENSO warm event report appeared in a TV broadcast (Channel 12 News) during the first week of June: “It would be comparable to 1982-83”. As mentioned earlier, in this report the broadcasters exaggerated the news after the ESPOL’s press conference, even though they were told that the magnitude and duration of the event remained unknown. Between June and July most of the news was about potential impacts based on the impacts of the 1982-83 event.

? ? I) Newspaper and other types of media were overwhelmed by the amount of information, after

the onset of the event, e.g., “El Telegrafo” a Guayaquil newspaper, had one column devoted to El Niño’s coverage. There were daily updates on TV, radio, in the newspapers and on the Internet. Annex 4 presents what we believe to have been the most relevant information about El Niño’s development in the newspapers. (The complete information--in Spanish--is available by request). Summaries and special news reports were published in monthly magazines such as VISTAZO (see Annex 68). Some of these headlines are shown in Table 3.

? ? J) During the development of the event, it was compared with the one in 1982-83 ever since its

onset was in the news (e.g., Channel 12 TV broadcast in June). Journalists published comparisons between precipitation amounts for both events and also compared their impacts as they occurred. Some of the news items that referred to both events are listed in Table 4 (Annex 4 has the most relevant information about ENSO’s development as covered in the newspapers).

6 It is made up of the Marine Science Department (ESPOL), INOCAR, INP, INAMHI, the Center for monitoring Natural Resource through Remote Sensing, the Charles Darwin Foundation-Galapagos Island, the Natural Sciences Department (University of Guayaquil), the Institute for Urban Planning (Catholic University), the National Program for the Management of Coastal Resources, and National Civil Defense. 7 National Center for Aquaculture and Marine Research 8 Annex 6 has front page copies of all relevant publications about the ENSO warm event of 1997-98.

2. Before the mention of the 1997-98 El Niño, when was the previous mention of El Niño in the media? It has not been possible to find out when was the first time that Ecuadorian newspapers mentioned El Niño. However, the first newspaper clipping we have dates from 1977. It refers to the ERFEN program and the interest of Ecuador and Peru in evaluating El Niño’s impacts on fisheries (El Universo, 1977). Apparently, the next one is from December 1982, showing a sea surface temperature (SST) image and indicating that an El Niño event had started in June 1982, reached Ecuador in October and that the warming would continue through March 1983. No mention was made about its impacts. TELECONNECTIONS : 1. What are the scientific views about the existence and the strength of El Niño teleconnections to the country area? [The WMO retrospective, prepared for the international conference in Guayaquil in 1998, addressed this question] In the case of Ecuador the most important impacts are related to an increase in precipitation. Rossel (1997) established the level and limits of El Niño’s influences over the hydrologic and precipitation regimes of Ecuador, applying principal component analysis to 226 meteorological stations comprising over 20 years of observations. His main result shows a distinctive pattern of ENSO’s warm phase influence over the country identifying three well-defined regions (Rossel, 1997): strong, medium and non-significant El Niño influence. Figure 1 shows that these regions correspond closely to (i) the coastal plains; (ii) the northern part of the coast and the foothills of the Andes; and (iii) the Andean Region. Based on this information we analyzed El Niño’s impacts on the socioeconomic sectors of the coastal plains where El Niño’s influence is the strongest. The information is presented in some cases by province. OTHER DIRECT CONNECTIONS ARE RELATED TO THE OCEANIC EFFECTS OF EL NI?O IN THE OCEAN: ? ? An increase in the temperature of the adjacent coastal part of the Pacific Ocean and

its effect on fisheries recruitment (e.g., decreased) because of fish migration southward toward cooler waters in the case of sardines and producing an increase in the productivity of the shrimp fisheries and in wild shrimp larvae supply;

? ? An increase in sea-level height, causing waves to reach further up the beach,

consequently eroding the littoral area, affecting housing, tourism, and any other activities located there.

2. If known, what were the climate-related anomalies and impacts of the 1982-83 event in your country?

Ecuador is in the direct line of fire of an ENSO warm event. Its impacts are felt directly when the Kelvin waves hit the equatorial coast of South America. The impacts of the 1982-83 El Niño were related to some of ENSO’s physical effects in this event, e.g., some aspects of the interaction between the ocean and overlaying atmosphere: a. Increase in ocean temperatures The result was that local fisheries of small pelagic species (mackerel, and sardines) declined and fishmeal prices increased. Other warm-water species replaced them. Some birds and mammals that feed on the small pelagic fish populations on the continental shelf and those around the Galapagos Islands starved to death. Coral reef bleaching was also an adverse impact. b. Increase in rainfall along the coastal provinces during periods longer than the rainy season This resulted in flooding, mudslides, infrastructure destruction, collapsed bridges, agriculture devastation, and poor sanitary conditions among other secondary impacts on the economies of the coastal provinces. For example, in the case of agriculture, a document was prepared by (ECLAC), the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL, 1983) at the request of the governments of Bolivia, Ecuador, and Peru. This document was created to let the international community, through the United Nations Secretary General, know about the necessities of assistance for rehabilitation and reconstruction required because of natural disasters. The ECLAC Report (CEPAL, 1983) described the origins and characteristics of the natural phenomenon causing disasters, and quantified (e.g., estimated the damages to production, social sectors and infrastructure. It pointed out the adverse consequences for the critical economic situation of the three countries cited above. Information about Ecuador had been given by government sources, by the mission (field visits), and by a draft assessment report on February 1983. Severe precipitation, flooding, and mudslides affected several provinces,9 during the 1982-83 El Niño. The total affected area represented 27% of the national territory; about 950,000 people were affected, directly or indirectly. Table 5 shows the socioeconomic impacts in agriculture alone of the 1982-83 El Niño. Internal consumption products, like rice, soy, and cotton, were doubly affected: in certain flooded areas it was not possible to sow and in others, crops were already growing. The yield was reduced considerably. Short-cycle crops like corn displaced cotton production.

9Coastal provinces: Esmeraldas, Manabi, Guayas, El Oro and Los Rios. Andean provinces: Azuay and Loja

Sugar cane was affected by excess water and, finally, there was major damage to fertilizers. Regarding export products, banana, cacao and coffee were affected significantly; these crops suffer from humidity excess, direct damage to plantations and flowering problems. The total amount of damage rose to $641 million US, 83% corresponding to direct damages to the infrastructure and production. Indirect damages (income, no processed products, etc.) accounted for 17%. c. Increase in sea level due to Kelvin waves and increase in wave activity and height due to storms in the northern Pacific This caused coastal erosion at the shoreline, destroying any structure near the beach. It also caused problems to the artisanal fishing boats, losses resulting from reduced tourism at the beaches, and beaches were littered with dead trees and animals at their estuarine outlets. 3. What were the 1997-98 climate-related physical and social impacts of the 1997-98 El Niño in your country? (Include agriculture, health, water supply, migration, etc.) Based on previous ENSO warm events, local scientists warned the government and the public about the probable evolution of the 1997-98 event as early as May and June 1997. They stressed the need for planning to prevent and mitigate the possible negative impacts that this event could have on Ecuador’s socioeconomic sectors. Since it is very difficult to predict El Niño’s magnitude and duration, local scientists recommended that government authorities, decision makers and the private socioeconomic sectors take the 1982-83 El Niño situation as the worst-case scenario; their responses came about in late July 1997. Some planning for disaster mitigation and prevention started then at different ministries, but lack of funding prevented the implementation of some of the proposed activities. MICROECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACTS The coastal region has five provinces: Esmeraldas, Manabí, Guayas, Los Ríos, and El Oro (Figure 2) with some undefined zones. The dominant climate is dry tropical, covering an area of 69.994 Km2. Its main agriculture products are banana, shrimp, coffee, and cacao. Other export products are mango, melon, passion fruit, and asparagus. Agriculture, livestock (cattle) and fisheries provide for 17% of the GDP, 60% of the total exports and 85% of the country’s non-petroleum exports (Puchaicela, 1998). El Niño has a strong impact on the coastal and island populations of Ecuador (Figure 1). According to the INEC (National Institute for Census and Statistics), this population represents 50% of the country, as shown in Table 6. It is important to explain some of

the demographic information of the coastal region, since it provides a better framework for climate and climate-related impact analysis. It is also important to note that the affected population is relatively young. During 1997-98, approximately 34% of those affected were under 15 years old (Table 7). Also, Table 8 shows the distribution of rural and urban populations within the affected region: 69% are located in urban areas and 31% in rural ones. Most of the flooded cities had problems with water supply, sewage, infrastructure damages: Chone (60.296 inhabitants10), Esmeraldas (120.317 inhabitants), Portoviejo (172.178 inhabitants), Bahía (26.306 inhabitants), Santa Rosa (41.900 inhabitants) and Milagro (121.823 inhabitants). Even though the affected urban population is larger than the rural one, the latter suffered the most. They remained isolated. They lost their harvests and agriculture products due to flooding and to highway, bridges and road destruction, which sparked higher product prices in the marketplace. Most of rural communication and transport is done on third-level roads, which under Ecuador’s standards are available only during the dry season. A detailed discussion of infrastructure damage is not considered here, since CORPECUADOR (2000) has undertaken detailed work on such infrastructural damages. DESCRIPTION OF EL NIÑO’S RELATIONSHIPS WITH PRICE VARIABILITY FOR PRODUCERS AND CONSUMERS Price variability is analyzed using two indices: the index for producer prices (IPP) at the national level11 and the index for the urban consumer (IPCU) at the coast. These indices behaved differently during January and February 1998; the same way for March-May; with producer price index variations lagging after June (Figure 3). During the first two months of 1998, the strong inflation registered by the IPCU contrasts with the low inflation at the producer level (IPP). The first was caused by two factors: i) Speculation about the possible duration of El Niño and whether there was going

to be an increase in precipitation, when the rainy season would coincide with El Niño (February and March are the rainiest months of the year climatologically)

ii) Political instability due to general elections for president, vice-president, renewal

of the congress, and the elaboration and adoption of a new constitution The April 1998 increase in the IPP and IPCU was due to the economic adjustment of 25 March 1998 (devaluation of the sucre12 by 75%). Also attributable were the El Niño rains that damaged highway infrastructure in such a way that the transport of food supplies to city markets was either not possible or was very expensive.

10 City population is for 1998. 11IPP is used at the national level for 1998, because there is none for the regional level or 1997. 12 Sucre was the Ecuadorian currency before conversion to US$ in September, 2000.

When El Niño declined, between June and August 1998, coastal highways remained under rudimentary conditions but were still connected. This helped to normalize food distribution to the cities and to improve the transport of people and cargo between affected areas. The IPP fell in June, while the IPCU has a speculative increase due to the second presidential round of elections. By August, the El Niño’s effects were almost gone from Ecuador’s coast and the new increases in the chosen indices responded to the new government and its economical regime (Jamil Mahuad started his 4-year term in August 1998, but it lasted only until 21 January 2000). DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE BEHAVIOR OF FOOD AND PRICE VARIABILITY FOR THE URBAN CONSUMER Food and transport services are considered part of the IPCU and were the most sensitive to El Niño’s impacts. This hypothesis has been verified, since there is higher variability (high rates for price increase) for the food and transport services groups than for the general inflation index for the coast during this warm event. March 1998 is an exception, because economic problems were the reason for the higher increase rate in the food basket than in food and transport services (Figure 4).

Price index variation (IPCU) for the final consumer in the coastal region of Ecuador for the 1997-1999 period (covering the ENSO period).

Source: INEC (National Institute of Statistics and Census) By the end of September 1997, El Niño’s impacts were felt on the coastal region; and an increase in food prices was expected and it happened (Figure 4). If we compare the behavior of the IPCU and the food prices for non-El Niño years, we can notice that the variability of both the IPCU and IPP are similar (Figure 5).

Price index variation (IPCU) for the final consumer in the coastal region of Ecuador for the year 1995. Source: INEC (National Institute of Statistics and Census)

DIFFERENCES IN THE BEHAVIOR OF AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTS ALONG WITH IPCU The comparison between the IPCU with agriculture, forestry and fisheries (taken as a whole), and food products for 1998 suggests that the IPCU has less variability than the latter two groups. Their variability before June 1998 is the result of problems with transport services. From June through September, the observed plateau is the result of the period between an elected president (June 1998) and the beginning of his term in office (mid-August) and the improvement in connectivity in the coastal highway network (Figure 6).

Variability of Ecuador national index for producer prices (IPP) (general) for 1998. Source: INEC (National Institute of Statistics and Census)

It is important to mention that there is a report by Vos et al., (1999) that said that there were no dramatic increments in food prices due to El Niño at the coastal area. This information by Vos and colleagues is contradictory to our analysis (Figure 7), which shows that the prices did increase.

Socioeconomic impact of El Niño on food prices (represented by precipitation in Chone, Ecuador). Sources: INEC (National Institute of Statistics and Census) and INAMHI (National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology) RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRECIPITATION AND FOOD PRICES FOR 1997 -98 Precipitation (source INAMHI) for Chone13 is used to depict the behavior of the 1997-98 El Niño. Figure 7 shows the close relationship between El Niño and food prices for the final consumer (IPCU). Variability during 1997 responded to Ecuador’s economic, social and political problems, while for 1998 the prices responded directly to El Niño until September (see Figure 7). FISHERIES AND SHRIMP AQUACULTURE The first effects of El Niño were felt by the fishery industry, as a result of ocean warming with sea surface temperature anomalies that increased beyond 5°C in the water column down to a depth of 100m for more than 10 months from the onset of the event. The main impact of El Niño on the principal fisheries of the region (Ecuador, Peru and Chile) depended on the characteristics of the different resources. For example, sardine (Sardinops sagax) captures were drastically reduced (CPPS, 1998) while an increase was observed in the landings of “chuhueco” (Cetengraulis mysticetus). But we have to be 13Chone: Latitude 03926 S, Longitude 80230 W, Elevation 40m

cautious; INP experts indicated that this had occurred because the sardine fleet was fishing closer to the coast than usual when fishing for sardine, and was in an area where “chuhueco” was usually abundant. Stocks of sardines and other pelagic species from Ecuador migrated southward to the Peru and Chile coasts, with a reduction of 57% of total landings during 1997 (248,277 metric tons) when compared to 1996 landings (435,961 metric tons) (VECEP, 1998). As a positive impact of El Niño, an increase in the recruitment success of yellowfin tuna was forecast and in fact did occur two years after the event (1999). This resulted into larger catches for the Latin American fleet than had been observed after previous ENSO warm events. In the case of the shrimp industry, El Niño had both negative and positive effects, as shown in Table 9: - The collapse of shrimp hatcheries (approximately 150 hatcheries which employed

about 2,000 people), which provided the shrimp larvae used as the “seed” for shrimp ponds during 1997-98; and

- An increase of at least 40% during 1997 in shrimp export revenues with respect to

1996 due to an increase in the wild shrimp fisheries and in the number of shrimp ponds seeded without a reliance on the hatcheries (Figure 8).

Shrimp production from aquaculture and fisheries.

AGRICULTURE ECUADOR’S ECONOMIC SITUATION BEFORE EL NI?O’S IMPACTS During early 1997 (Table 10), almost all the primary sector activities (banana, coffee, cacao, livestock, fisheries, petroleum and mining), secondary sector activities (manufacturing industries, construction), and tertiary sector services (commerce, hotels, restaurants, transport, communications, banking, electric energy, water supply and others), experienced some growth in comparison with previous years. The good performance of the agricultural sector was due mainly to the exporting of products such as banana and coffee, together with fish products, livestock, and some products for internal consumption, such as rice. At the end of the year, because of the strong expansion of imports, the global supply grew 4.3% with respect to the previous year. In contrast, the domestic demand increased only around 2.4%, with a negative impact on commercial activity. By July 1997, Palacios (1997) prepared a descriptive study for a private bank, which identified El Niño’s impacts on key economic sectors in Ecuador by geographical region. The study was used as a tool to identify threats and opportunities in agriculture. It depicted how the intensity of each El Niño event affected differently the representative products of the different regions and provinces of Ecuador. Some products (e.g., banana, tomato, melon, mango and pineapple) from Guayas Province were affected negatively by the 1987 and 1992 El Niño events. The net production of rice and sugar cane, however, increased; the latter increased during the 1992 event, which was weak to moderate in intensity. Watermelon, cotton and coffee production decreased during the 1987 and 1992 El Niño events in Manabi Province. The hard corn from Los Ríos Province showed an important production development with weak to moderate El Niño events, like the 1987 and 1992 events. The opposite occurred with soy and cacao products in that province. Palacios (1997) also showed the relationship between precipitation and productivity for years with abnormal precipitation (e.g., very strong El Niño) and localized for the provinces above cited. The historic agricultural production curves for the Andean provinces suggest that after an El Niño hits the coast it is followed by a year of good agricultural production in those provinces.

The study concluded that an El Niño event of very strong intensity affects negatively nearly all the agricultural sectors, although more significantly on the coast than in the Andean region. These findings correlate well with Figure 1. There is a high correlation between El Niño’s magnitude and its impact on the agricultural sector. The correlation is linear, negative and direct, close to 100% (r = 1) for a very strong El Niño. THE 1997-98 EL NIÑO EVENT’S IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE Anomalies in the weather pattern-especially in precipitation air temperature and humidity-were observed along coastal Ecuador as early as August in response to anomalous oceanic conditions. At this time some of the export crops such as mango, asparagus, and melon, among others, were not sown or were lost because of a lack of flowering. In the case of sugar cane, out of the 900 million pounds expected, only 50 million pounds (5.5%) were harvested. This resulted in the need to import sugar from neighboring countries to cover the production deficit during 1997. After August, heavy rainfall started inland affecting the whole agricultural sector. Until February 1998, total losses in rice, soy, banana (lack of production), and sugar cane (not sown) crops were up to US $302,938,000 (source: supplement Mundo Económico, Diario El Universo, 17 March 1998). The losses during 1997-98 (US $302,938,000) were over 50% higher than those of 1982-83 (US $200,000,000). However, not all is bad news: a known post-El Niño benefit for agriculture is that the soil receives a lot of nutrients and it is better prepared for the next crops, due to the heavy rainfall and flooding. There was an assessment study funded by the UNDP and the Corporation for Andean Development (CAF), at the request of the Government of Ecuador to ECLAC. The damages to the productive sectors, especially those related to the agricultural sector, are given in Table 11. The short cycle crops were the most affected; rice and corn for the second harvest of 1997 were lost totally. The rains that came with that El Niño episode flooded the fields over a long period of time, and obstructed the initial sowing of these crops in 1998. Other crops such as beans, vegetables and fruit, were affected almost totally because of flooding over a long period; prematurely flowering because of rain, then production was either greatly reduced or had been lost. The commercial products that were affected were sugar cane, banana, coffee and cacao. The floods on the plantations damaged the first two crops, and the last two crops were damaged because of the rains during flowering. The damages to the banana plantations in the country did not have an effect on exports. The plantations are managed under high-tech standards so prevention was oriented toward drainage systems. The main losses in this sub-sector were due to transport problems (e.g., highway and bridges destruction).

The productions of coffee and cacao crops have diminished because they were substituted by new crops, mainly vegetables and fruit. The effects of El Niño had been dramatic for commercial agriculture, especially for food crops such as yucca, beans, orange and mango. The total area affected by El Niño reached 613,000 ha; some of them suffered a double impact because the 1997 harvest was lost, and because the fields were flooded, affecting mainly rice and hard corn. As noted, the area affected by El Niño represents approximately 15% of the total agricultural land of the coastal area. Production losses in metric tons and in dollars are shown in Tables 12 and 13. The total amount of direct loss estimated in agriculture was $524 million US, including the crops ready to be harvested and those lost in 1997 due to lack of transport. The indirect loss, because of the impossibility of the first sowing of 1998, was estimated at $441.2 million US. Thus, the total damage to the sector reached $996 million US. HEALTH

Cholera epidemics started in Peru in January 1991, and that start was related to El Niño. Colwell (1997) proposed that the cholera outbreak could be related to zooplankton blooms associated with an ENSO warming, which were distributed regionally by marine currents. Other health problems have been related to toxins due to alga blooms (e.g., dinoflagellates) eaten by fish and later consumed by humans. Several diseases in Ecuador have been associated with El Niño episodes: V. cholerae, Campylobacter, C. botulinum, E. coli, Salmonella, Shigella, hepatitis A, malaria, dengue, leptospirosis, leishmaniasis, encephalitis, among others. In other countries, like Costa Rica, diseases transmitted by vectors are associated with labor migration and with periods of heavy rainfall and flooding. During the 1982-83 and 1990-94 El Niño events, the following epidemic outbreaks occurred: leptospirosis (in the southern region); and malaria and dengue (on the central Pacific and Atlantic coast). Dengue (transmitted by the mosquito (Aedes aegypti), which had been eradicated before 1993, reappeared after that year. Cholera appeared in the Americas in January 1991 and by 1997 there had been over 1.3 million cases and more than 12,000 dead. The maximum outbreak period occurred during the 1991-92 El Niño, especially in the coastal communities. Several disease outbreaks have coincided with climate variability, flooding, and demographic changes such as the migration of displaced people or refugees toward areas of major economical development. The list includes the following: malaria and dengue (in the 1980s and 1990s), dengue 3, an increase in hemorrhagic dengue, and the appearance of a new vector, the mosquito Aedes albopictus. Hantavirosis has appeared and has been linked to flooding and drought associated with El Niño and mice in several countries in the Americas, including the U.S., Canada, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, Argentina and Chile.

The most frequent pathologies related to some climatic events are listed in Table 14. There were 4 major epidemics during the 1997-98 El Niño: cholera, leptospirosis, dengue and malaria, which were enhanced by El Niño events. The number of cases is depicted by province in Table 15. Table 16 shows the number of cholera cases during the 1991 and 1997-98 (until June 1998) El Niño events. Note that the number of cholera cases during the 1991-92 El Niño was 17 times those of 1997-98. This suggests that the magnitude of an event is not necessarily an indication of its disease impact. One reason for this dramatic decrease could have been the Contingency Plan of the Public Health Ministry for the prevention of epidemiological diseases such as malaria, cholera, dengue and leptospirosis. This plan had three target actions:

1) Societal preparation and transport at a cost of US $800,000.

? ? Education and information for the affected population • Organization of community brigades • Coordination of health information

2) Control of vector-borne endemic and epidemic diseases, at a cost of US

$1,500,000. • Distribution of 300,000 tablets for malaria prevention • Purchase of 100,000 mosquito nets for sleeping areas • Equipment for spraying and fumigation • Control of human and animal rabies • Campaign against rats in infected zones • Snake serum

3) Aid to the population in the affected zones and shelters, at a cost of US

$8,100,000. ? ? Safe water supply • Medical brigades • Medicine delivery • Delivery of consumables to hospitals • Rehabilitation of health centers

It is important to notice that health problems are also caused by other factors: \Table 17 shows a summary of damage attributed to the 1997-98 event. However, one of the major problems of attribution stems from the fact that those people at the poverty level would always be affected independently of the magnitude of an El Niño event, because its vulnerability is higher. After the 1997-98 event, COPEFEN worked on several projects related to health: 1) With the Ministries of Health and Social Welfare on improving living conditions

in the affected regions at a cost of $4 million US. This project is supposed to last for 4 years. It began in August 1998.

2) With the Ministries of Health and Education and INOCAR to work at the

community-leader level for prevention and mitigation with a budget of $5 million US, for the period July 1998- July 2001.

3) To rebuild hospital infrastructure damaged by flooding at a cost of $17 million US for 30 hospitals, 2 health centers, 15 sub-centers and other health offices (funded partially by the government, the World Bank and the PAHO/WHO).

4) For vector control and epidemiological awareness with emphasis on dengue and

malaria at a cost of $2 million US. This activity started in July 1998. Some post-El Niño problems are related to extreme chronic poverty and were enhanced by the event. Figure 9 shows how the effects cascade through society after the event.

Cascade effects due to ENSO effects on public health.

4. What is the reliability of those attributions? Not all the damage reported by CEPAL (1998), and other institutions can be completely attributed to El Niño/situation, among other reasons. If we do an analysis by sector, we can simplify and understand the reliability of those attributions.

Agriculture: Excess of rainfall because of El Niño did affect the planted areas of different crops, such as banana, sugar cane, rice, and soy. Also, air temperatures and cloudiness negatively affected some fruit plantations like mango, preventing them from flowering. Flooding occurred in the same areas during previous events. The channeling of water and drainage construction, designed and built after the 1982-83 event, worked well but the development plan presented by CEDEGE (Commission for the Development of the Guayas River Basin) was not finished. As an example we have the city of Babahoyo, which has historically been flooded, even during a weak El Niño, but as a result of the protection designed did not have any problem in the 1997-98 event. Health: In this sector the problems are originally derived from poverty and enhanced by El Niño. Lack of potable water, sewage and drainage in small cities and rural communities made them good candidates for water-borne and vector-borne diseases under so-called normal climatic conditions. When an El Niño event hits the country, their condition worsens and there is an increase in the incidence of disease. Prevention measures depend on the economic and human resources available at the Ministry of Health. Fisheries: El Niño directly affects this sector. The decrease in sardine fisheries and other small pelagic species is the result of an increase in ocean temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which causes them to migrate southward in search of cooler conditions. The rate of recovery of these fisheries is not fast. Other fisheries are positively affected, e.g., shrimp and mahi mahi fisheries. Also, small-scale fishing activities decline because of increased wave activity in the coastal zone during El Niño. Infrastructure: The maintenance of public infrastructure, such as highways, secondary roads and bridges was not properly done during 1996 because it was an election campaign year. It was not done in early 1997 because of the political situation in the country. Also, a lot of problems were related to poor road construction, resulting from the non-compliance with the regulations required for heavy rainfall, even during a normal rainy season. Roads in Ecuador were not built to last very long. Therefore, the damage to public infrastructure is attributable mainly to poor construction and maintenance and should not be attributed solely to El Niño. In relationship to private infrastructure, especially housing, the problems are due to the lack of “territorial order”. People living in rural areas or urban-marginal zones do not take into account whether they are on a river bed, an unstable slope, a dry river bed, in an area with potential for flooding, etc., when they build their houses. Also, they do not use good materials for their construction. Therefore, much of the damage to infrastructure should not automatically be attributed to El Niño’s impact. Demographics and Microeconomics: Some of the adverse changes in this sector were not attributable to El Niño. During the first two months of 1998 (Figure 3),

Price variability for producers and consumers in Ecuador during 1998.

Source: INEC (National Institute of Statistics and Census) the strong inflation registered by the index price for the consumer (IPCU) contrasted with the low inflation at the producer level (IPP). Inflation during January – February was the result of the following: (i) speculation about the duration of El Niño, and whether there would be an increase in precipitation when the rainy season coincided with the El Niño event (February and March are the climatological rainiest months of the year); and (ii) the political instability resulting from the holding of general elections for president, vice-president, renewal of the congress, and the elaboration and adoption of a new constitution. The April 1998 increase in the IPP and the IPCU was due to the economic adjustment of 25 March 1998 (the Sucre devaluation of 75%), and El Niño rains that damaged highway infrastructure in such an extent that the transport of food supplies to the city markets was frequently not possible or, where possible, very expensive. Immediately following, when El Niño declined, between June and August 1998, coastal highways remained under rudimentary conditions and in need of repair, but had remained connected. This helped to normalize food distribution to the cities and to improve the movement of people and cargo between affected areas. The IPP fell in June while the IPCU had a speculative increase due to the second presidential election round. By August El Niño’s effects were almost gone from the Ecuadorian coast and the new increases in the chosen economic indices responded to the new government and its

economic regime (Jamil Mahuad started his 4-year period in August 1998, which lasted until 21 January 2000). RESPONSES : 1. Were any government reports or statements issued before the impacts of the 1997-98 El Niño appeared? On 2 July 1997 a National Emergency was declared by the president under the National Security Law giving the National Civil Defense the power to coordinate any action to cope with El Niño. A contingency plan was approved by July 1997. As mentioned earlier, a permanent committee for the coordination of actions to cope with the El Niño phenomenon was formed and named COPEFEN (in Spanish, Comite Para Enfrentar el Fenomeno de El Niño). COPEFEN was created by presidential executive decree # 740 on 13 October 1997 as a unit in the president’s office. It would coordinate all actions: technical, administrative, financial, and operational. Several governmental institutions belong to COPEFEN: the Ministries of Agriculture, Social Welfare, Urban Development and Housing, Finance and Public Credit, Public Services, Foreign Affairs, Health, the Social Investment Fund (FISE), the National Civil Defense, and the National Institute for Children (INNFA). Several campaigns were launched to disseminate information about the potential impacts of El Niño on the areas of direct impact (Figure 1). Some prevention campaigns started as early as June 1997 in the Health sector. Preventive measures in agriculture started in July. By August, the major of Guayaquil, along with other public officials, such as the drinking water provider, started their first campaign with a slogan, “Cuidando tu ciudad cuidas tu vida”, that means, “Taking care of your city, you are taking care of your life”. During September, the National Civil Defense started evacuation demonstrations at all sites prone to problems such as mudslides and flooding. There were other reports that could be considered internal, since they were not available to the public. The majority of these reports belong to the Public Health (19 July 1997), Public Work, Agriculture, and Housing Ministries (See Annex 2). It is important to mention that Ecuador asked for international help as early as July 1997 (Corporation for Andean development, CAF). 2. Were any reports issued after the impacts appeared? The government issued many reports once the impacts started to appear, but these were either done by the affected sector or done for the government by non-governmental agencies. They are mentioned in chronological order in Table 18 (an extraction from Annex 2). Besides these reports, several others were prepared at universities, research centers, non-governmental organizations and foreign governments, among others (Annex 2). 3. What were the major responses to the event? As noted earlier, the responses to the information provided within the TC3 region, i.e., actions for impact mitigation, varied depending on the socioeconomic sector affected, on whether the sector

was under the “umbrella” of a government agency or not, and also on the part of the country affected. The responses from the public sector (government) and the private sector were markedly different. The government established a unit under the presidential control named COPEFEN. Its mandate was to coordinate all actions needed to mitigate the impacts of the event, with largely ineffective results, because this organization did not take into account the organizational structure of the country in a disaster situation: National Civil Defense should have been in charge. COPEFEN members prepared action plans for impact prevention and mitigation, which could not be carried out as planned because of lack of money, corruption (Vistazo, 2 October 1997), organizational problems and socio-political problems. We can conclude from the information provided on each Ministry report (See Annex 2) that at least the Health, Agriculture, Fisheries, Development and Housing, and Public Construction Ministers and Ministries knew what was needed to cope with El Niño’s impacts, but their effectiveness was low. The governmental reaction to the information about the 1997-98 El Niño event was fast (a state of emergency was declared on 2 July 1997), but its speed to implement contingency plans involving impact prevention and mitigation was slow and its work was not done. The response of the private sector was fast and largely most effective, because it was well organized under national and provincial chambers by sector (e.g., Aquaculture National Chamber, Commerce Chamber, etc.) and especially because they were aware of the potential impacts of El Niño on each sector. A good example is the work that was financially supported by the Bank of Guayaquil to identify El Niño’s impacts on key sectors of the economy. In spite of having been prepared for the Bank’s internal consumption, it was made public to help the other sectors in July 1997. Areas such as shrimp, aquaculture and export agriculture organized meetings, workshops and conferences in order to provide their members with the information needed to avoid losses. In the case of Ecuador, the TC3net Human Dimensions group worked along with the private sector in the dissemination of the information tailored as best as possible to the need of each end user. Tailoring of El Niño information (including forecasts) was necessary because the needs of the agriculture sector differed from those of the aquaculture one or for human health sectors. Because of this, in the case of Ecuador’s aquaculture, the only losses (which were minor) that occurred during the 1997-98 El Niño related mostly to the flooding of lowland areas and to damage of basic infrastructure (mainly highways and bridges). There was a 40% increase in shrimp exports from 1996 to 1997. The aquaculture sector used El Niño impacts knowledge about pelagic fisheries, and, about their indirect effects on fishmeal prices. With regard to fishmeal, the sector was able to freeze prices and to obtain a tax exemption for the duration of the El Niño. This was a very important sector response, because shrimp feed represents 35% of the production cost of shrimp grown in shrimp ponds. The private education sector also responded to El Niño information. On the coast the school year normally runs from April through January, based on the rainy season. To finish classes earlier lectures were given on Saturdays. Thus, problems expected at the end of 1997 and the rainy season of 1998 (January – April) due to heavy rainfall were avoided. 4. Identify the extent of national research (in the last 20 years) in your country on the

following: a. El Niño There are several organizations private and governmental that study the ENSO cycle from different points of view, as mentioned earlier. Oceanography became an important topic at the beginning of the 1970s, when UNESCO funded several programs in Ecuador to develop this field and El Niño, as it was known there, became one of its topics. Also, several studies related to fisheries in the Gulf of

Guayaquil were undertaken during the 1968-72 period, but they did not mention the El Niño phenomenon. In December of 1974, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization hosted a workshop in Guayaquil, Ecuador on El Niño phenomenon. They released a report in 1975 entitled “Workshop Report on the Phenomenon Known as El Niño.” As part of a regional program we have ERFEN (Regional Study of El Niño Phenomenon). ERFEN studies the physics of El Niño and its impacts on fisheries and other biological resources of the region (Ecuador, Peru, Chile and Colombia are its members through the CPPS). It was created in 1975 as a result of the 1974 workshop in Guayaquil. If we take into account the last 20 years, 1980 through 1999, we can include the following lines of research and their products (publications), which may not be known to the international community because most of them are considered gray literature (See Table 19).

b. Climate-related hazards Other climate-related hazards studied in the country include those related to the cold phase of El Niño, which is La Niña. However, such studies began only after the forecast of the onset of a strong event in 1988-89. Several programs have also been developed around the theme of Climate Change (mid-1990s). INAMHI has led research on the Country Report funded by the US government. The Netherlands has funded a study (1997-1999) on scenarios for climate change and sea level rise in the Guayas River Basin. From time to time the Ecuadorian coast is hit by high wave activity because of storms in the North Pacific, but this is common knowledge and research about this theme has not as yet been conducted. Also, on occasion there are hailstorms in the Andean region. However, these are one-time events and they too have not yet been studied. There are no other climate-related hazards under study in Ecuador. 5. Does a national plan for disaster response exist? IDNR answered this question. 6. Are El Niño considered explicitly as a disaster in our country? IDNR answered this question. 7. Identify international research, if any, about the impacts of El Niño events on your country. International research about the impacts of El Niño events started after the collapse of the Peruvian fishery during the 1972-73 El Niño event. An international “workshop” on the phenomenon known as El Niño was held at the end of 1974 in Guayaquil in response to damage of and interest in the 1972-73 El Niño event. There were some international programs devoted to the study of normal and El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, especially after the appearance of a paper published by physical oceanographer Klaus Wyrtki in 1975 (“El Niño, the dynamic response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to atmospheric forcing”, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 5: 572-584), describing El Niño. There was an increase, also, in the number of publications from the TOGA and EPOCS programs during the 1980s and 1990s. For example, “The Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere observing system: A decade of progress” (by McPhaden et. al. Journal of Geophysical Research, 103(C7), 14,169-14,240, 1998).

The 1982-83 El Niño papers cover several topics related to Ecuador: physical processes (ocean – atmosphere), biological processes, El Niño in the ancient record and impacts upon fisheries. Most of the research publications are in the Journal of Geophysics (e.g., one issue in 1987 was devoted to El Niño, Vol. 92, C13, 14187 – 14680, December), and in the various issues of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) among journals. International research has also appeared in the proceedings of local, as well as, international workshops. Between the 1982-83 and the 1997-98 ENSO warm events, the topics of the research have broadened from the physical process realm to the human dimensions, that is, to the applied research on impacts of the ENSO extremes on socioeconomic sectors. Several books also talk about impacts in Ecuador, e.g., the Open University Oceanography Course Team by Pergamon Press, Oxford 1989. A very short list of relevant publications is shown in Annex 2. Forecasting by Analogy : (i.e., using recent historical examples to plan ahead) 1. If a perfect forecast had been available as early as October 1996 (knowing what is

now known about the actual impacts), what could have been done differently? (Do not take into consideration at this time any restrictions on possible actions.)

If a perfect forecast would have been available as early as October 1996 knowing what is now known about the actual impact, the responses could have been different, especially in the private sector and in the education sector. The school year at the coastal provinces runs from April-May through December-January. Given a perfect forecast there would have been enough time for developing an education campaign at the high school level that could have an impact mainly on the urban population. The governmental responses might have been different, since there was a president from the coast running the country at the time. But, in general, the political and socioeconomic situation of the country, are the ones that could influence any responses the most. a. About information flow? The information flow towards the rural population could have been improved. Newspapers, TV and World Wide Web reports are oriented more toward the urban population. Radio transmissions are the communication means by which the rural population becomes informed, and this group was not a target of the news media during the 1997-98 event. b. About preparing for the forecast impacts A forecast by October 1996 would have allowed the ERFEN group to generate and to provide regionalized impacts maps with probability percentages under different scenarios, for example, for moderated and strong ENSO events. 2. What are the realistic obstacles that might have prevented these theoretical actions

being taken? The real obstacles would still have been the political instability and socioeconomic situations of the country at the time the forecast was released, along with the lack of a “weather information” culture in Ecuador. 3. Can El Niño considerations be added explicitly to national disaster plans? With regards to national plans, during 1990 the elected vice-president was a former ESPOL’s rector, equivalent to university president. During his election campaign he asked ESPOL to develop a national plan for natural disaster prevention (one of the authors of the current report,

Cornejo-Grunauer participated in this group). This plan included volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and ENSO events. When he won, the prevention plan was included in the country’s national development plan. To implement the plan at all levels the Under-Secretary of State convened meetings with all ERFEN members for more than four month in 1990 (Cornejo-Grunauer also participated in this group). By the end of October 1990 the final plan was submitted to the President of the Republic. In spite of the occurrence of the 1991-92 El Niño event during his time in office, the plan was never implemented or used. Therefore, ENSO considerations have already been added to national disaster plans, but until all the actors become educated about the phenomenon, especially the public and private sector, it will not work. Why these actors? It is known in Ecuador that the private, wealthy sector is the one that exerts pressure on the government to execute policies. Also, information spread at the community level has more impact on the public than general information that is issued officially. 4. Identify the strengths and weaknesses in the way your country responds to El Niño-

related climate anomalies. The weaknesses in the way Ecuador responded to El Niño-related climate anomalies are as follows: - Difficulty in forecasting the duration and magnitude of the event: We could only provide

a map of regional and some local scenarios of the 1982-83 El Niño event with its effects on some resources such as shrimp larvae, pelagic fish, crops, human health and its damages on coastal areas.

- Lack of credibility: Only those sectors that had been working directly with TC3net (and other

groups) trusted the information provided about El Niño. This may have been because of the lack of a “culture” of forecasting within the country as well as misinformation provided by institutions with authority that were not fully informed about an ENSO warm event development.

- Lack of organization: Within the weakest socioeconomic sectors that could have enabled

them to react as a group, providing better mitigation actions that the ones that were implemented.

- Lack of funds: In some cases local authorities had developed mitigation plans but had no funds to implement them. - Political problems: The political situation in the country did not allow the governments at

various levels to face an event of the magnitude of the 1997-98 El Niño. - Information did not reach all: Not everyone received information about this El Niño in a

suitable and understandable way. We had forgotten that the people that would be most affected were those who could only listen to the radio. Some efforts were directed by local and regional organizations that went area by area to explain the potential impacts.

Some of the strengths in the way the country responded, can also be listed: - Good timing and ability to make a timely request for international funds for coping with disasters. -Some of the economic sectors have a higher level of education and of organization which allowed them to better assimilate climate information and its impact on their activities, e.g., the shrimp and health sectors.

-Prior knowledge of some of the expected impacts helped sometimes to focus on the pro-active aid to affected areas. 5. Did the 1997-98 El Niño have any influence on your country's response to the

forecast in early 1998 of an expected La Niña event? La Niña’s occurrence was announced as early as March 1998 by ESPOL and reported in a local newspaper (13 March 1998, EXPRESO newspaper). After June 1998, when the 1997-98 El Niño had declined and the international community announced La Niña, there was a brief period when the demand for general information was relatively high. By the end of December 1998 the demand for La Niña information came mostly from the Agriculture sector. This demand was partly related to Hurricane Mitch (October 1998). Hurricane Mitch destroyed Ecuador’s competitors in agriculture, especially in bananas and other fruits like melon, creating a window of opportunity for exports of these fruits and other products. The demand for and supply of information about La Niña was much less than that for El Niño. The other sector that demanded La Niña information was the shrimp sector, since La Niña effects on its fisheries and on aquaculture are generally negative (Cornejo-Grunauer and Griffith, 1999). There is a decrease in spawning and, therefore, in shrimp larvae which is the seed for the shrimp ponds. The hatcheries supply is not enough to cover the sector’s needs. In March 1999, due to shrimp epidemic outbreaks in Central America, Ecuador’s authorities prohibited shrimp larvae imports. Figure 10

Price of shrimp larvae inverted to represent shrimp larvae availability and El Niño 3 SST anomalies.

Source: Cornejo-Grunauer and Griffith (1999) shows the price of shrimp larvae (inverted to depict wild larvae availability) and Niño 3 sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (departures from average sea surface temperatures in a zone defined between 5°N-5°S, 150°-90°W). Positive SST anomalies are directly related to an increase in wild larvae availability and vice versa. Other impacts of La Niña include an increase in rainfall in the Andean region and in the length of the rainy season, but because of the current economic situation in the country, information has not been available about the potential impacts of this event.

Annexes : ANNEX 1 EXAMPLES OF INFORMATION DELIVERED TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC ABOUT EL NIÑO IMPACTS - World Wide Web site (http://www.cathalac.org/web-esp/new.htm),

- Local, regional and international workshops,

- Press conferences, newspapers reports, and

- Some cartoon type literature, both on the physical aspects of the event

and on its impact on socioeconomic sectors.

ANNEX 2 LOCAL AND FOREIGN PUBLICATION LIST ABOUT ENSO AND ITS IMPACT ON ECUADOR Análisis Situacional de los Impactos del Fenómeno El Niño en la Costa Ecuatoriana y Posibles Escenarios de Reconstrucción.

IPUR, COOPI, XFAM, Universidad Católica

Atlas del Ecuador.

Ayuda de Emergencia para Enfrentar las Inundaciones Provocadas por el Fenómeno El Niño-Ecuador.

PMRC

Carpeta: Agenda Anotada de la XIV Reunión de la Comisión Coordinadora de las Investigaciones Científicas, COCIC.

CPPS, 20-24/sept/99

Carpeta: Boletines El Niño - Boletín mensual sept/83, feb/97, jun/97-oct/98.

Otros: - Propuesta para la Ejecución del Crucero Oceanográfico Regional, abril-mayo/98. - Estudio de Viabilidad del Centro sobre El Niño en Ecuador. - Variabilidad Oceanográfica en el Mar Ecuatoriano asociada con el Evento ENSO 97-98.

- Acciones Relacionadas con el Fenómeno El Niño: El Caso de Ecuador. - La Ira de Dios. El Niño. - La Reconstrucción: Yo te ofrezco, busca quien te dé - Fenómeno de El Niño.

ERFÉN - INOCAR - Organización Meteorológica Mundial (OMM) - Rodney Martínez, Eduardo Zambrano y José Garcés, INOCAR - Vistazo Dic/17/98 - Vistazo Ene/99 - INOCAR - David Griffith and Lorena Schwarz - EKOS oct/97

- Dr. Francisco Aguirre y Dra. Sara García Z.

- Shrimp Farming in Ecuador: Part 1 “Development of an industry”. - Causas y Efectos de un Niño no Programado. - El Niño 1997. Daños Significativos en Zonas Costeras entre Marzo y Octubre/1997. - El Niño 1986-87 y el Anti - El Niño 1988-89. Manifestaciones en el Mar Ecuatoriano. - Plan de Acción sobre el Estudio del Fenómeno ENOS en Ecuador (1997-98).

Carpeta: Boletines El Niño - Boletín N°11 (feb/98) y N°12 (mar/98).

José Luis Santos

Carpeta: Boletines El Niño - Boletín Quincenal El Fenómeno El Niño Oscilación Sur (ENOS), julio/97-Mayo/98.

CENAIM-ESPOL

Carpeta: El Niño Información Varia - Informe del Censo de Laboratorios de Producción de Larvas de Camarón (Guayas). Tablas y Gráficos de Producción de Camarón e impacto de El Niño en el sector camaronero. - Sinopsis sobre la situación de la Pesca con Relación al Desarrollo del Evento El Niño. Mayo.08.1998. - Bosquejo de Propuesta: Reducción de Vulnerabilidad del Sistema Socio-Productivo en Regiones del Litoral. 1998. - Perfil de Proyecto: Regionalización de las Lluvias y Caudales Extremos en las Zonas bajo la Influencia del

- VECEP

- A. Barriga

- Edison Heredia

Fenómeno de El Niño. - Información sobre Agricultura (Producción y Exportación) y sobre el desarrollo de El Niño en Ecuador.

Carpeta: El Niño Seminarios - Consecuencias Climáticas e Hidrológicas del Evento El Niño a Escala Regional y Local. - Simposio Impacto del Fenómeno El Niño sobre la Fauna Marina.

- Seminario Internacional sobre el Estado del Medio Ambiente Marino y Costero en el Pacífico Sudeste. - Seminario Internacional Fenómeno El Niño 1997-1998 Evaluación y Proyecciones.

- ORSTOM-Quito nov/97

- Univ. Nacional Agraria, Univ. Nacional San Agustín, Sociedad Entomológica del Perú Oct/83 - CPPS, PNUMA dic/98

- CPPS, IDNDR, FAO nov/98

Carpeta: Impactos en Sudamérica por El Niño. - The El Niño Phenomenon in Peru: 1997-99. - Pronostican un Verano Inestable. Argentina. - Impacto del Fenómeno de El Niño sobre la Intensificación de la Malaria en Colombia.

- La Nación Line, 11/Xl/97 - Germán Poveda J. Y William Rojas M. Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Corporación de Investigaciones Biológicas

Carpeta: Información de ENOS en Acetatos

Msc. Pilar Cornejo

Carpeta: Mesa Redonda “Respuesta de los Sectores Socioeconómicos del Ecuador frente a El Niño 1997/98”.

Facultad de Ingeniería Marítima y Ciencias del Mar-ESPOL

Carpeta: Publicaciones sobre El Niño - The 1997-98 El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Impact on Ecuadorian Economy.

Msc. Pilar Cornejo

- Las Dimensiones Humanas de los cambios climáticos: El Complejo Climático de Convergencia Tropical. - Condiciones Actuales Frente a las costas de Ecuador, 1997. - Evaluación del Uso de la Información de ENOS 1997-98 y su Impacto en la Economía del Ecuador. - El Fenómeno El Niño Oscilación Sur 1997-98. - El Evento El Niño Oscilación Sur 1997-98. - Aplicación de la Información Climática a Diferentes Sectores Socioeconómicos. - Aspectos Oceanográficos y Meteorológicos del Fenómeno El Niño 1986-87. - Características Climáticas del Pacífico Sudeste: Aspectos Atmosféricos del ENOS en la Región del Pacífico Oriental de América del Sur. - Aplicación de la Información Climática en Acuicultura del Camarón: el Caso Ecuatoriano. - El Evento de El Niño-Oscilación Sur. - Dimensión Humana de las Aplicaciones de la Variabilidad Climática: El Caso del Complejo Climático de Convergencia Tropical (C3T). - El Niño Southern Oscillation and La Niña Impacts on Water Resources in the Humid Tropics: The Role of TC3 Human Dimensions

Group. - The Effects of El Niño Event 1982-83 in the Composition, Distribution and Biomass of Phytoplancton in the Southeastern Pacific. - An Impact of the 1997-98 ENSO Event on the Ecuadorian Economy.

Carpeta: Salud Pública Ecuatoriana frente a El Niño. - Principales Actividades Cumplidas, Prevención Fenómeno del Niño. - Agenda del Taller Nacional: Problemas de Salud provocados por el Fenómeno El Niño. - Programación Emergente para la Prevención de Brotes Epidémicos, ante la Posible Presencia del Fenómeno El Niño. Para la Región II. Año 1997-98. - Proyección de Población por Grupos Programáticos según Provincias de mayor riesgo afectadas por el Fenómeno El Niño. Ecuador 1997. - Necesidades Prioritarias de las Áreas más Vulnerables de la Provincia de Manabí. - Principales Necesidades de los Hospitales situados en las Zonas de Mayor Vulnerabilidad de la Provincia de El Oro. - Total Brigadas Médicas conformadas por Provincias de la Región II. - Zonas de Mayor Vulnerabilidad por Provincias en la Región II. - Criterios Básicos para la Elaboración del Plan

Ministerio de Salud Pública-Subsecretaría Regional de Salud

Hospitalario en Caso de Desastres. - Plan Emergente para Enfrentar el Fenómeno del Niño. 1997. - Actividades Desarrolladas por Áreas de Salud y Servicios Hospitalarios dentro del Plan Regional de Emergencias para Prevenir y Mitigar los Efectos del Fenómeno El Niño. - Reportaje: Acción de la Subsecretaría de Salud durante las Inundaciones. - Aspectos relacionados con Actividades Post-Desastres. - Comparativo Casos de Cólera. Provincias Región II, Años 1995-96-97-98. - Sistema Alerta Epidemiológica-Guayas. Casos Sospechosos Cólera 1997-98. - Casos Confirmados de Leptospirosis por el INH hasta el 26 de octubre de 1998.

Carpeta: Taller Vigilancia Epidemiológica frente al Fenómeno de El Niño.

Ministerio de Salud Pública

Carpeta: Trabajos El Niño - El Fenómeno El Niño y la Política Nutricional en el Ecuador. - Funcionamiento de los Modelos de Previsión de Lluvia en la Costa Ecuatoriana en 1997-98.

- Reingeniería para Plantaciones Bananeras con la Incidencia de El Niño.

- Ing. Raúl Paz-ESPOL - Eric Cadier-ORSTOM, Frederic Rossel-ORSTOM, Edison Heredia-INAMHI - Ing. Santiago Forero V. 1998

Carpeta: Trabajos Varios sobre El Niño - Talleres Regionales

- News Letter, Issue 17-April/98. IAI - Science, Vol. 283-Feb/99

sobre El Niño. - Genesis and Evolution of the 1997-98 El Niño.

- Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies through Early Warning and Preparedness: The Case of the 1997-98 El Nino-Southern Oscillation. - Update: Multilateral Development of the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction. - Una Nueva Teoría para entender mejor los Complejos Mecanismos de El Niño. - The El Niño Olympics, or The Search for the El Niño of the Century. - The Last El Niño of the Millennium-The 1997-98 Event. - Where Does the Science End and the Reporting on Science Begin? - Forecasts of the Development of the 1997-98 El Nino Event. - Part II-The 1997-98 El Nino Event. Regional Climate Anomalies and Impacts. - El Niño y sus Implicaciones sobre el Medio Ambiente.

- El Niño de 1982-1983.

- WMO - The ENSO Signal, Issue 9-Jan/98 - Fiche d’actualité scientifique, N°45-Jul-Ago/97 - Fragilecologies, Abril 15/98 - Fragilecologies, Mayo 1/98 - Fragilecologies, Abril 29/98 - National Center for Atmospheric Research - CPPS

- Acta Oceanográfica del Pacífico, Vol. 8, N°1/1996 - Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical

Climate Change and Human Health.

WHO, WMO, UNEP

Currents of Change El Niño’s Impact on Climate and Society.

Michael H. Glantz

Economic and Social Effects of El Niño in Ecuador, 1997-98.

Institute of Social Studies Working (ISS), Paper Series No. 292.

Ecuador Pesquero y Acuícola. Anuario 1997.

Subsecretaría de Recursos Pesqueros-INP-VECEP-Cámara de Acuicultura-Cámara de Pesquería

Ecuador: Análisis del Gasto Público Sectorial durante el Período 1980-1991.

Fundación Idea para el BID

Ecuador: Evaluación de los Efectos Socioeconómicos del Fenómeno El Niño en 1997-98.

CEPAL-Naciones Unidas

Efectos de El Niño 1982-83 sobre Recursos Pesqueros en Ecuador.

Taller sobre ENOS 1982-83 Roberto Jiménez y Douglas Herdson

- El Fenómeno de El Niño en Galápagos.

- El Fenómeno El Niño de 1987 y sus Efectos en la Pesquería Pelágica Ecuatoriana. - Informe sobre el Evento El Niño 1997-98 y sus efectos en la Pesca. Informe Técnico ENSO 08.04.98.

- Michael Bliemsrieder, Estación Científica Charles Darwin - Emilio Cucalón y Leonardo Maridueña. INP. - VECEP-INP

El Fenómeno de El Niño: Reconstrucción-Democracia y Gobierno Local.

Revista Poder Municipal. AME. Abr-Jun/98

El Fenómeno El Niño y su Impacto en las Actividades Socio-Económicas en las Provincias Centrales de la República de Panamá.

CATHALAC, INRENARE, NATURA, SIP, USMA

El Fenómeno El Niño: Efectos en Bancos Ecuatorianos.

ESPOL

El Niño 1997-98, Como lo Enfrentamos?. Memorias (Anexo 3).

Junta Provincial, Defensa Civil del Guayas

El Niño 1997-98, Memoria Técnica Volumen I (Publicaciones), Volumen II (Boletines) y Volumen III (Cruceros e Informes).

INOCAR

El Niño and Climate Prediction. Reports to the Nation on Our Changing Planet. Spring 1994, Nª3

El Niño Atlas 1982-83. NOAA, Nova University Oceanographic Center.

El Niño en las Islas Galápagos, 1982-83.

Gary Robinson y Eugenia M. del Pino Fundación Charles Darwin

El Niño Southern Oscillation and Interannual Climate Variability: Report of a Workshop to develop the Scientific Agenda of the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research.

Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI)

El Niño y las Vías. Tecnológica 1998, Vol. 12, Nª 1. ESPOL El Niño: An AGU Chapman Conference

Journal of Geophysical Research Vol. 92, NªC13

Encuesta Agropecuaria de Evaluación del Fenómeno El Niño 97-98 (Región Costa).

INEC-SICA

ENSO 1997-98, Impacts on Ecuador.

Ecuador Home Page http://www.esig.ucar.edu/un/ecuador/index.html

Entendiendo el Fenómeno El Niño y Aprendiendo a Vivir con él.

PMRC, CICYT-ESPOL

Estadísticas Económicas Históricas, 1948-1983.

Bco. Central

Evento El Niño 1991-1992 en el Ecuador.

Ing. Miguel Rodríguez L.

Exploring the Concept of Climate Surprises: A Review of the Literature on the Concept of Surprise and How It is Related to Climate Change, 1998.

U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Research

FAO'S Activities in Relation to 1997-98 El Niño and La Niña.

FAO

Fenómeno Climático de El Niño, Memorias del Seminario Experiencias para la Prevención de Daños y la Reconstrucción de Zonas Afectadas en la Agricultura, Plan de Rehabilitación del Sector Agropecuario.

Instituto Inter-Americano de Cooperación para la Agricultura (IICA), Comunidad Andina

Fenómeno El Niño 1997-98: Evaluación Hidráulica para la Rehabilitación de la Red Vial del Litoral Ecuatoriano, 1998.

INAMHI

Fenómeno El Niño 1997-98: Evaluación Meteorológica, 1998.

INAMHI

Forecasts of the Development of the 1997-98 El Niño Event.

National Center for Atmospheric Research

Foro-Taller: Desarrollo en el Ecuador de la Investigación Aplicada en el Área de Cambios Climáticos.

FUNDACYT, FIMCM-ESPOL, ECLIMA

IAI Science Forum: Global Change in the America, 1998

Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research

Impacto del Fenómeno El Niño 1997-98 sobre Cadenas Agroindustriales Ecuatorianas (Algodón, Azúcar, Banano, Café, Cacao, Arroz)

SICA-Ministerio de Agricultura y Ganadería

Impacto del Fenómeno El Niño sobre Sectores Claves de la Economía Ecuatoriana. 1997

Sr. Roberto Palacios, Bco. de Guayaquil

Influencia de El Niño sobre los Regímenes Hidropluviométricos del Ecuador

Serie INSEQ #18-Tomo I, II y III, ORSTOM-INAMHI

Información sobre el Fenómeno de El Niño Ecuador

CISP- Ecuador, Naciones Unidas

Informe de la II Reunión del Grupo de Trabajo de Evaluación y Ordenación Pesquera en el Pacífico Sudeste y de Especies Transzonales y Altamente Migratorias.

CPPS

Informe de la lX Reunión del Grupo Mixto de Trabajo COI-OMM-CPPS sobre las investigaciones relativas a El Niño. 1998.

COI, UNESCO

Informe de la Reunión Extraordinaria del Grupo Mixto de Trabajo COI-OMM-CPPS sobre las investigaciones relativas a El Niño. 1999.

COI, UNESCO

Informe de Labores del Ministerio de Agricultura y Ganadería.

Ministerio de Agricultura y Ganadería. 1986-87.

Informe de Labores del Ministerio de Bienestar Social.

Ministerio de Bienestar Social. 1983.

Informe de Labores del Ministerio de Desarrollo Urbano y Vivienda.

Ministerio de Desarrollo Urbano y Vivienda. 1997-98

- Informe de Labores del Ministerio de Educación y Cultura.

- Cooperación para el Desarrollo 1997. Informe Ecuador.

- Ministerio de Educación y Cultura. 1984-1988. - Naciones Unidas

Informe de Labores del Ministerio de Obras Públicas y Comunicaciones.

Ministerio de Obras Públicas y Comunicaciones Período: Feb-Ago/97.

- Informe de Labores del Ministerio de Salud Pública.

- Informe de Labores del Ministerio de Salud Pública.

- Ministerio de Salud Pública. 1997-1998 - Ministerio de Salud Pública. 1986-1987.

Informe de Proyecto: Elaboración de los Mapas de Impacto del Fenómeno de El Niño 1997-98.

CEMA para PNUD-COPEFEN

Informe del Crucero Regional Conjunto de Investigación Oceanográfica en el Pacífico Sudeste. 1998.

CPPS

Informe Final de la X Reunión del Comité Científico ERFÉN.

ERFEN 22-25/nov/93

Informes Técnicos ENSO sobre el Evento El Niño 1997-98 y sus Efectos en la Pesca.

Boletín Científico Técnico, INP. 12 Informes de Jul/97-Sept/98

International Forum on Forecasting El Niño: Launching an International Research Institute. Resumen Ejecutivo. 1995.

Washington, D.C.

La Pesquería de Peces Pelágicos Pequeños durante el Segundo Trimestre de 1998.

Programa de Cooperación Técnico para la Pesca, INP

Los Desastres Naturales de 1982-83 en Bolivia, Ecuador y Perú.

CEPAL-Naciones Unidas

Meeting of Scientific Experts, 1992.

Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI)

Mesas Redondas: Aplicaciones de Estudios Climáticos en Agricultura y Pesquería-Acuicultura.

FIMCM, ESPOL, FIESO, UNESCO, FUNDACYT, CATHALAC

Naturaleza y Política: El Gobierno y el Fenómeno del Niño en el Perú 1997-98.

IEP

Organización y Personal Responsable de las Instituciones que conforman el Comité Permanente de Coordinación de Acciones para afrontar el Fenómeno El Niño.

Gobierno Nacional.

Para Exportar con Éxito. Información Macroeconómica y Evolución de las Exportaciones Ecuatorianas 1990-1999.

Federación Ecuatoriana de Exportadores (FEDEXPOR)

- Para la Elaboración del Plan de Defensa Civil de Auto-Protección ante Desastres. 1992 - Plan de Contingencia para afrontar el fenómeno El Niño 1997.

Defensa Civil del Ecuador

Participación de la OPS frente al Fenómeno de El Niño, 1998.

Organización Panamericana de la Salud-Organización Mundial de la Salud

Plan de Evaluación y Reconstrucción vial.

CORPECUADOR

Predicciones del desarrollo del evento El Niño 1997-98.

Kevin F. Trenberth National Center of Atmospheric Research

Preliminary Report on El Niño Occurrences over the Past Four and a Half Centuries.

William H. Quinn, Victor T. Neal and Santiago Antúnez de Mayolo, College of Oceanography, Oregon State University

- Programa de Encuestas de Coyuntura. Sector Agropecuario, de la Construcción y de la Industria Manufacturera. Publicación mensual. - Tendencias Económicas y Financieras.

- Ecuador Pesquero Oct-Dic/97, Abr-Jun/98, Oct-Dic/98.

- Síntesis de Información de la Prensa ecuatoriana.

- Bco. Central - Publicación Semestral sobre la economía ecuatoriana y su entorno, febrero 1999. CORDES - Cámara Nacional de Pesquería - Bco. Central del Ecuador. Revista mensual de noticias. Nov/82, Feb/83

Realizing the Potencial of Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Seasonal to Interanual Climate Forecasts: Lessons from El Niño 1997-98 and the Peruvian Fishery. Recortes de Prensa . Msc. Cornejo1977 a 1987, 1988, 1989

may/97 a sept/98 Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies through Early Warning and Preparedness, the Case of the 1997-98 ENSO.

UNEP, United Nations Foundation, WMO, IDNDR, NCAR, The United Nations University

Regional Workshop: Trade Convergence Climate Complex. 1996.

IAI, CATHALAC

Regionalización de las Lluvias y Caudales Extremos en las Zonas bajo la Influencia del Fenómeno El Niño

Edison Heredia C.

Reportajes Impactos ENOS en Ecuador:

- El Reparto de los Fondos para El Niño - La Furia de El Niño - El Niño Indolente

Vistazo Nª723 Oct/02/97 Vistazo Nª726 Nov/20/97 Vistazo Nª728 Dic/18/97 Vistazo Nª732 Feb/19/98

Respuesta ante el Evento de El Niño 1997-98, Reporte Final de Actividades, 1999

PMRC-ESPOL

Resultados Oceanográficos y Meteorológicos relacionados con El Niño 1992

CPPS, COI, PNUD

Resúmenes de Prensa Ecuatoriana sobre El Niño 1997-98 en Ecuador. Jun/97-sept/98

Msc. Pilar Cornejo

Resúmenes del IV Congreso Ecuatoriano de Acuicultura, 1997

SENAIM-ESPOL, Cámara de Acuicultura del Ecuador

Resúmenes del Seminario Internacional Fenómeno El Niño 1997-98, Evaluación y Proyecciones, 1998

CPPS

Resúmenes del Seminario Internacional: Consecuencias Climáticas e Hidrológicas del Evento El Niño a Escala Regional y Local. Incidencia

ORSTOM, INAMHI

en América del Sur, 1997 Resúmenes del V Congreso Nacional de Ciencias

FUNDACYT-ESPOL

Seminario Internacional sobre El Estado del Medio Ambiente Marino y Costero en el Pacífico Sudeste

CPPS, PNUMA

Serie Estadística 1991-1993 INEC Sinopsis sobre la Situación de la Pesca con relación al Desarrollo del Evento El Niño, mayo/98

VECEP

Taller Regional: Complejo Climático de Convergencia Tropical. 1996

Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research

Taller sobre el Fenómeno El Niño 1982-83.

Revista: Pacífico Sur 1984, Nª 15, CPPS

Taller sobre el Fenómeno El Niño 1982-83. Cuantificación de los Efectos del Fenómeno El Niño en el Sector Agrícola en Bolivia, Ecuador y Perú

Departamento de Desarrollo Agropecuario, Junta de Acuerdo de Cartagena

Taller: El Impacto de la Variabilidad Climática en La Salud Pública. Panamá

CATHALAC, UNESCO

Talleres Regionales sobre El Niño 1997-98. Resultado de Actividades Científicas

IAI. News Letter, Issue 17, Abril/98

- Testimonio de un Mandato.

- Informe a la Nación. 1998. Tomo 1

- Vicepresidencia de la República. Junio 1998 - Gobierno Nacional.

The 1997-98 El Niño Event: A scientific and technical retrospective

DRAFT, WMO, UNESCO, UNEP, ICSU

Trabajo Investigativo de Pregrado acerca del flujo de información relacionada con El Niño 1997-98

ICHE, ESPOL

XIIl Reunión del Comité Científico del Programa ERFEN, 1998

CPPS

Xll Reunión del Comité Científico de EFRÉN, 1997

CPPS

ANNEX 3

ESPOL (ESCUELA SUPERIOR POLITÉCNICA DEL LITORAL) RESEARCH PROJECTS RELATED TO ENSO AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY

RESEARCH PROJECT

FUNDING AGENCY

DURATION PARTICIPATING COUNTRIES

ESPOL PARTICIPATION

STRENGTHENING THE PAN AMERICAN CLIMATE STUDIES SOUNDING NETWORK

NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION US $ 350,000

4 YEARS 1997-2000

MEXICO, NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA, PANAMÁ, COLOMBIA, ECUADOR, PERU, BOLIVIA.

JOSÉ LUIS SANTOS

VARIATIONS IN SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL PRECIPITATION PATTERNS IN THE TRADE CONVERGENCE REGION

INTERAMERICAN INSTITUTE (IAI) THROUGH USA NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION (NSF) US$ 150,000.00

3 YEARS 1998-2000

COLOMBIA, COSTA RICA, CUBA, ECUADOR, MEXICO, PANAMA, USA

COINVESTIGATORSM.PILAR CORNEJO DE GRUNAUERJOSE LUIS SANTOS

REGIONAL MONITORING OF THE IMPACT OF EL NIÑO EVENTS ON THE BIOLOGICAL RESOURCES AND ITS USES IN LATIN AMERICA

ORGANIZATIONS OF AMERICAN STATES (OEA). US$ 330,000

1 YEAR 1999

PERÚ, COLOMBIA, ECUADOR, CHILE

COINVESTIGATORS JOSÉ LUIS SANTOS

MULTI-OBJECTIVE STUDY OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY FOR IMPACT MITIGATION IN THE TRADE CONVERGENCE CLIMATE COMPLEX

US$ 2,000,000.00 INTERAMERICAN INSTITUTE (IAI) THROUGH USA NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION (NSF)

5 YEARS 1999-2003

CANADA, CHILE, COLOMBIA, COSTA RICA, ECUADOR, MEXICO, PANAMA,VENEZUELA, USA

PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATORPILAR CORNEJO GRUNAUERCOINVESTIGATORSJOSE LUIS SANTOSJORGE CALDERÓN

VLIR-ESPOL PROJECT: ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAIN ABILITY, ENSO AND CIVIL ENGINEERING PROBLEMS

US$ 4,000,000.00 BELGIUM CONSORTIUM OF UNIVERSITIES VLIR

4 YEARS 1999-2002

ECUADOR, BELGIUM MIGUEL A. CHAVEZ. JOSE LUIS SANTOS JORGE CALDERON M.PILAR CORNEJO GRUN

ANNEX 4 INFORMATION PUBLISHED IN ECUADORIAN NEWSPAPER AND NEWSLETTER DURING THE 1997-98 EL NIÑO EVENT 3/8/97 International scientific

meeting was held in Guayaquil confirming EN

Shrimp fisheries will be favored

4/8/97 INOCAR recommended prevention action due to high wave at coastal locations

Artisan fishermen are worried because they remembered the 1982-83 EN event.

4/8/97 EN would not be similar to 1982-83 said a speaker from AOML.NOAA

4/8/97 EN increases inflation During July inflation was 2.1%. This meant an increase of 3.5% on the prices of marine products

4/8/97 Positive and negative impacts on the shrimp industry

8/8/97 David Enfield, from NOAA gave a conference at SOLBANCO.

Guayas

12/8/97 Agriculture with problems

Sugar cane: efficiency reduced 45% Mango and Melon: affected by high humidity Banana: low yield due to high humidity Rice: less has. planted Cacao and Coffee: flowering is affected by humidity

12/8/97 Seminar “Prevention and Mitigation of Disasters”, Ecuadorian Society of soil and rock mechanical Engineering, University of Guayaquil and National Civil Defense

Guayas

14/8/97 Educational campaign to prevent EN impacts

Guayas

31/5/97 Public and private institutions coordinate prevention plans to prevent El Niño (EN) events.

3/6/97 Milagro declared emergency, expecting same problems as in 1982-83 because of back drainage

Guayas

11/6/97 Meeting to prevent EN impacts

Guayas

12/6/97 Actions would be define for impact mitigation.

Guayas

13/6/97 No money to fight EN Guayas ECAPAG (potable water and sewage province company/government) needs 7 million dollars for impact mitigation in Guayaquil

People has invaded drainage channels

13/6/97 Fishermen have problem s

Guayas

Fish are gone due to warm waters

13/6/97 Emergency plan for El Niño

El Oro

22/6/97 The sectors that will be most affected are: health, education, public construction, agriculture, aquaculture and fisheries

In the Guayas province, ECAPAG, the Governor and Civil Defense will be in charge of prevention actions The 1982-83 EN will be sued as reference

26/6/97 ENSO symptoms arrived Ecuador

4 of the 5 coastal province experienced heavy rainfall with flooding especially Manabi

29/6/97 Fisheries program to cope with EN

30/6/97 Plans to cope with EN will be defined

1/7/97 Health Ministry has a

plan to prevent EN impacts

Vaccination campaigns, water chlorinate, anti-ophidian serum distribution

2/7/97 Manabi will be flooded, people must be ready

Manabí Poza Honda and La Esperanza dams are full and flooding could not be avoided Poza Honda population knows the risks

2/7/97 Disaster at the coastal provinces Public employees are on strike

Esmeraldas Manabí Los Ríos Guayas

Rice was affected in Daule Ministry of Public services has half of the money needed for impact prevention.

Heavy rainfall and flooding everywhere

prevention. Artisan fishermen are loosing US$ 133 per day (minimum salary is around US$100) .

4/7/97 First El Niño victim Chone, Manabí

Economic front is seeking money for prevention plans

5/7/97 River flooding Manabí Tungurahua Guayas

Mudslides on the road Gualaceo-Limón Indanza, en Macas, A shrimp boat ht the beach in Playas pushed by the waves Uruguay donates money

7/7/97 Scientists prepared diagnostic about EN; they still don’t know its magnitude

Manabí

9/7/97 -National State of Emergency is declared

El Oro Manabí

Losses in agriculture are evaluated

12/7/97 Kids go to school on Saturday to finish earlier (usually from April through January)

April through January)

12/7/97 Inter-institutional committee met

Zamora Chinchipe Morona Santiago Guayas

Some funds are allocated but more are still needed

15/7/97 Melon planting is delayed

Only planted 50 out of 200 has. To prevent losses

17/7/97 Presidential committee met and prepares a plan

Manabí

24/7/97 2 new lines of credit to cope with EN

US$ 100 million form the Central Bank and US$ 168 million form the Corporación Andina de Fomento (CAF) and Brazil government

For road maintenance, water sanitation

25/7/97 EN benefits tourism (Beach season is from December through April)

Guayas Manabí Esmeraldas

Water is warmer than normal

30/7/97 Scientists set that current EN will be similar to 1982-83

Losses similar to 1982-83 in infrastructure and fisheries

31/7/97 ESPOL confirm a moderate to strong event, with low chance of being similar to 1982

12/9/97 Impact on fisheries is

studied Cotopaxi Los Ríos

National Aquaculture Chamber request a special line of credit because of expected decrease in fish meal production in the region

Medicines in 250 risk centers provided by the Ministry of Welfare

25/9/97 Flooding in the coast, harvest losses

Guayas El Oro Cañar

200 has./banana lost government will invest US$ 65 millions

2 deaths due to heavy rains and storm

27/9/97 Flooding in the coast, harvest losses

Los Ríos Cañar

600 has of banana, rice, sugar cane and cacao

Work done by the government on roads is not acceptable by the population of Los Rios

27/9/97 Not enough money to cope with EN

Finance Ministry said it has transfer all that is needed

28/9/97 Rural sector most affected

Heavy rains put housing under high risk of

Possibility of increase in dengue,

destruction cholera, malaria, yellow fever. Hanta virus where there is drought

30/9/97 Loans for EN US$265 millions from IDB, WB and CAF are being sought in Hong Kong.

30/9/97 Rainfall, high waves and mudslides

Guayas Manabí

Jaramijó, Manabí, 200 families were evacuated and waves destroyed two houses and damage boats .

01/10/97

EN becomes stronger

Guayas Manabí Esmeraldas

Bridges under risk of destruction

Damage on protection wall

01/10/97

Tropical storms in the north Pacific affect waves in Ecuadorian coast said INOCAR. Also, EN would be here in 20 days

Manabí Guayas El Oro

Artisan fishermen are unemployed

mudslides

01/10/97

WB and IDB will give economical and technical

02/10/97

High wave activity expected

Guayas Flooding on arable lands

2 bridges ready to fall in Milagro

04/10/97

President limits his trips abroad

04/10/97

Pichincha One person wounded by destruction of his house.

04/10/97

Manabí One person drawn due to high wave activity

05/10/97

Impacts on health Guayas An infectious focus on the sewage system and the drainage channels

05/10/97

Rainfall increased 1600%, mean sea level is rising, and SSTA are about 4°C and will keep rising through the end of the year

Los Ríos Rivers are flooding the shores

06/10/97

National civil defense held prevention campaigns

Esmeraldas Manabí Los Ríos El Oro Galápagos Pichincha.

07/10/9 An increase in No funding for malaria

7 endemic diseases is expected: cholera, salmonelosis, chicken pox, snake bites and malaria

prevention

08/10/97

IV Regional technical Council on Health.

El Oro Vaccination for cats and dogs Population vaccination against difteria, tetanus, chicken pox, poliomyelitis, TB Also prevention campaigns and sanitary control at ports

08/10/97

A panel on the economic impact of EN will be held

Guayas

10/10/97

Government wants to create a new tax to cope with EN, the private sector is against it..

Pichincha

10/10/97

Funds and technical aid

WB and IDB offered funds and technical aid

10/10/97

Esmeraldas complains for lack of attention

Esmeraldas One people died during the protests

22/10/97

ESPOL, INAMHI and INOCAR indicated that the trade winds have collapsed expecting high impact on agriculture and coastal locations

2/11/97 22 communities in

Guayaquil get ready for EN

Guayas

Garbage accumulation, sewage problems, lack of medicines some of the problems in Guayaquil

4/11/97 Medical teams for relief centers Privates sector give aid to population

Guayas

4/11/97 Sta Rosa city under water since October

El Oro People still on relief centers

5/7/97 Scientist from Colombia, Bolivia, Chile, y Ecuador concluded that EN will

be strong and that Ecuador has the highest risk

7/11/97 Yellow alert at the coastal provinces

Affected population is still waiting for aid

9/11/97 Heavy rainfall

Esmeraldas Tenths of houses fallen, undetermined number of deaths due to heavy rainfall, mudslides

10/11/97 Until October it rain 350% of normal rainfall

12/11/97 7 deaths, 3.000 people evacuated in 3 coastal provinces

Guayas Manabí El Oro

13/11/97 El Niño fury hits Guayaquil.

Guayas 800 people evacuated from Bastión Popular a poor suburb

14/11/97 Problems in the electric system in Guayaquil

Guayas

Problems in household equipment, traffic lights, etc.

14/11/97 Shrimp sector report losses

2000 has.of shrimp ponds flooded, 10 million dollars

15/11/97 Relief centers without food and medicine in Guayaquil

Guayas There is not enough money to help all

16/11/97 Losses in commerce 90% reduction in sales

17/11/97

Hospital under alert

Guayas Typhus, skin problems are detected daily

18/11/97

But road system prevent country from development

Lack of communication between different provinces affects the economy

18/11/97 High sea level expected due to storm Ricky in Mexico

21/11/97 Rainfall prevent attendance to school

50% of the school year is lost

21/11/97 Excess rainfall and “exaggerated” information about EN impacts keeps the tourism near zero at the beaches

21/11/97 IDB approved 105 million dollars.

22/11/97 Mudslide kills eleven people

Bolívar

25/11/97 Temporal suspension of transport in Guayaquil

Guayas Guayaquil lacks transportation due to flooding by heavy rainfall

26/11/97 Rainfall lasted 21 hours and flooded Guayaquil

Guayas

26/11/97 School classes suspended at the coastal provinces

Lack of transport, schools flooded are the reasons

26/11/97 El Oro 10.000 inhabitants are isolated in Machala

27/11/97

New taxes for coping with natural disasters

30/11/97 tragedies

One month after the EN impacts started the damage is huge in human losses and economic resources

1/3/98 85% of Milagro flooded. Guayas

4/3/98 Inflation increases Guayas Inflation is 4,5%, 0,5 higher than January, partially to EN and higher costs of potable water

5/3/98 Bucay river bridge fall Guayas

5/3/98 Farmers will sue CEDEGE

The protection walls built by CEDEGE were not strong enough, 300 has. of banana were lost

6/3/98 Protest for lack of aid Manabí Protest all over the province

9/3/98 EN toll is 145 dead

145 deaths 63 disappeared 30.721 people evacuated 982 houses destroyed

13/3/98

After 6-8 months we will have the anti-Niño effect said ESPOL

Guayas

16/3/98 Popes donates 14000 dollars

John Paul II send money for Esmeraldas

19/3/98 Economy at critical point

The president asked the congress to increase sales taxes from 10% to 14% to cover the deficit left for the petroleum prices (the barrel fall to 7.6 dollars) and EN

20/3/98 Heat waves at the coast

INAMHI mentions than temperatures are over 36°C

FECHA REPORTE ASPECTO ECONOMICO ASPECTO SOCIAL

1/4/98 Mudslides in Bahía de Caráquez

Manabí

Isolated by destruction of roads

Shelters are all over the city

1/4/98 8 years lost to EN

Losses are around $850 million dollars equivalent to 35% of GDP.

1/4/98 One of the eight presidential candidates will have to solve EN problems

Elections are coming

3/4/98 Israel gives aid to Ecuador.

Medicines were given to the Red Cross

3/4/98 No highways to the coastal shoreline

The highways have collapsed

4/4/98 Declaration about EN

4/4/98 bailey bridges are installed

Guayas

Bailey bridges are used where the bridges have collapsed

5/4/98 Spaniard foundation brings aid

Aid is oriented towards medicines and medical needs

9/4/98 National ERFEN committee indicates that EN is ending

9/4/98 Coastal rehabilitation and reconstruction will be done with international aid

18/4/98 Food for people in shelters

4 containers with food supplies

23/4/98

Ecuador suffered the most damage

Losses over 6.7 million dollars

210 deaths and 56 disappeared.

28/4/98 Cholera cases Guayas 12 sick and one dead due to cholera

FECHA REPO

RTE PROVINCIA ASPECTO ECONOMICO ASPECTO SOCIAL

1/7/98 Inflation goes up in Latin America

Cumulative Inflation during January –May 1998 is 18.6%, higher

Huge losses in Peru and Ecuador

1998 is 18.6%, higher than last year.

1/7/98 El Niño: US$ 2645 million in loses

Losses are 1.2 of 1997 petroleum production.

October 1997 –July 1998: 8732 people without homes 15776 affected by EN104 dead 1856 houses destroyed 3050 houses affected119 school used as shelters

5/7/98 No money, exchange of goods

Manabí 8768.4 has. of different harvest lost IDB rejected a project that COPEFEN has to provide seeds to the farmers. FAO will fund a similar program

6/7/98 CEPAL: reports EN biggest disaster ever

CEPAL estimates losses of 2500 million dollars

8/7/98 Project submitted to rebuild the coast

Funding would come from 25% of utilities generated by the solidarity fund, donations deducted from the income tax, future sales of petroleum and international loans

CORPECUADOR will be integrated by: Delegate of the president Delegate of the congress Construction ChamberCollege of Engineers

10/7/98 Few rains

Sardine fisheries is recovering

14/7/98 Italy sent 56 containers with aid

22/7/98 People Manabí 209 shelters have 16642 people

has not return to their homes yet.

Esmeraldas Guayas

16642 people

23/7/98 Political game for rebuilding the coast

Majors complain about lack of funds transfer

1/12/97 Roads damage

Manabí

Population partially isolated

3/12/97 More than 2000 evacuated people are staying at

Esmeraldas

Esmeraldas schools

6/12/97 Economic development still awaited

After election processes some economic problems are considered: decrease in petroleum prices. And the EN effect

7/12/97 Mudslide in Sarayunga.

Azuay

350 families evacuated

9/12/97 Variation in food prices

Guayas

Increase due to damage on the roads

9/12/97 EN impact negatively on tourism

The tourism operators think information has been exaggerated

10/12/97 Peasants lost income due to flooding

Peasants and their families migrate to the cities

10/12/97 Rainfall spoils Christmas celebration

People at relief centers has lost hope

12/12/97 EN magnitude starts decreasing but will joint the rainy seasons effect. Rainfall will last until April, said ESPOL

12/12/97 bridge destroyed by river

Azuay Palmas bridge over the Mollopongo river, one death

14/12/97

UNICEF brings aid

14/12/97

Los Ríos 2 kids died drawn on the river

16/12/97 Galapagos islands are flooded.

Galápagos

17/12/97 Epidemic outburst all over the coast

typhus and malaria

18/12/97 Agriculture losses over 200

million dollars

20/12/97 One dead due to bad sanitary conditions on a relief center

22/12/97 Fallen Bridges, provinces isolated

1 bridge in Pedro Carbo

22/12/97 Solidarity campaign

“ Cruzada de Solidaridad Unidos… Porque después de la lluvia sale el sol”, “Solidarity Crusade Together because after the rain the sun comes out”

28/12/97 Peruvian – Ecuadorian Border commerce decreases

Commerce between Ecuador and Peru has decreased

30/12/97 Red alert in Guayas province

Guayas

31/12/97

10 million dollars for bridges

Japan gave 10 million dollars for repairing the bridges

31/12/97 EN left 13000 people affected

1/1/98

SST over 28°C, rainfall threshold

EN continues

1/1/98

Rejection of increase in fuel prices

The increased is to cover EN deficit

Rejected by all

1/1/98

Rainfall continues

69 deaths

4/1/98 Food supplies are low in Guayaquil markets

Guayas Speculation with the prices

6/1/98 Migration and lack of food

Peasants migrate to Guayaquil seeking for food and shelter

9/1/98 The national

interconnected electrical system is affected by EN

9/1/98 Pessimism invades Ecuadorians

No hope

10/1/98 Santa Elena Peninsula isolate

Guayas Due to flooding of the La Camarona river that destroyed a bridg

14/1/98 Evacuated numbers increased

13.472 people has been evacuated

15/1/98 Rivers retreated to their normal basin

Manabí El Oro

Some peasants return to their homes

15/1/98 Ecuadorian government is not efficient in relief fund allocation

22/1/98

EN postpones politics

24/1/98 During three hours rained the equivalent of the whole rainy season

Guayas

Guayaquil flooded again

24/1/98 aphtha fever due to EN

Pichincha

60% decreased of milk production

24/1/98 13 days without potable water in Esmeraldas.

Esmeraldas Pipe was destroyed by mudslide

25/1/98 Guayas

80% of rural population is on the shelter and required aid.

25/1/98 12000 people evacuated in Huaquillas.

29/1/98

Malaria reappears

Guayas Manabí Esmeraldas El Oro

Health authorities are worried

30/1/98 Tourism affected in Galápagos Rainfall affects

Galapagos Island

Galapagos

ANNEX 5 ESPOL PRESS REPORT: FIRST ANNOUNCEMENT ABOUT AN ENSO WARM EVENT HAPPENNING DURING 1997

ANNEX 6 FRONT PAGES OF LOCAL PUBLICATIONS