seventh international conference on technologies and combustion for a clean environment - july 2003,...

Seventh International Conference on Technologies and Combustion for a Clean Environment - July 2003, Lisbon (Portugal) 1

Socio-economic Aspects of the Hydrogen Economy Socio-economic Aspects of the Hydrogen Economy DevelopmentDevelopment

F. Di Mario, A. Iacobazzi, R. Infusino, A. Mattucci,

ENEA, Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Project,

C.R. Casaccia, Via Anguillarese 301, 00060 Rome, Italy


SummarySummary

The framework of the study

The EU energy issues

The hydrogen as energy carrier

Possible hydrogen scenarios

Results

Final considerations


The contextThe context

The study has been carried out as a Fast-Track for European Science and Technology Observatory (ESTO) network, coordinated from the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies.

ESTO main objectives are related to trans-national prospective analysis and advice on science and technology changes relevant to EU society, economy and policy.

ESTO is presently composed of a core of twenty European institutions


The framework conditionsThe framework conditions

The Green Paper from the European Commission states that the The Green Paper from the European Commission states that the most important issues related to energy are for EU:most important issues related to energy are for EU: Global climate changeGlobal climate change Security of energy supplySecurity of energy supply

Kyoto protocol target achievement (8% of COKyoto protocol target achievement (8% of CO22 reduction in 2008- reduction in 2008-

2012 for EU15 respect to 1990) is uncertain; in any case this target 2012 for EU15 respect to 1990) is uncertain; in any case this target is not enough to stop planet warming, but only to delay itis not enough to stop planet warming, but only to delay it

In fact, after 2010 the energy demand will continue to increase; In fact, after 2010 the energy demand will continue to increase; 2030 forecasts give CO2030 forecasts give CO22 emissions increasing more than 20% emissions increasing more than 20%

respect to Kyoto targetrespect to Kyoto target


Global climate changeGlobal climate change

The consequence is that additional effort is required to reduce the CO2

emissions. The most effective recipes are: efficiency improvement, with reduction of fossil fuel consumption

(short term); use of low-carbon or carbon-free energy sources (natural gas,

renewables, nuclear);

separation and sequestration of the CO2 produced from fossil fuels.

But even these reduction will be unable to stabilise atmospheric CO2

concentration, if fossil fuels will be the main sources (50-70% in 2050, according with IIASA-WEC scenarios)


Security of energy supplySecurity of energy supply

Big issues of energy supply for EU are: The energy supply is mainly provided

from non-EU countries Poor control on the supply side The only ways to reduce the demand

require measures on residential and transport sectors, but they are hard to be implemented

Therefore innovative solutions are to be investigated, such as the Hydrogen


Reference conditions in 2030 for EU30Reference conditions in 2030 for EU30

The Green Paper states that:

“there are the following challenges: energy import dependence is around 70 % in 2030, renewable energy does not reach its target of 12 % share of

primary energy, Kyoto objectives are not met, the absence of nuclear energy would make it even more

difficult to tackle climate change in the long term.”


Future scenarios for COFuture scenarios for CO22

Trend of worldwide annual Carbon emissions under IPCC B1 scenario

CO2 emissions (referred to1990)

1,00

0,35

1 0,990,92

0,87

0,64

0,31

1,15

0,71

1 0,991,07

1,14

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120

years

rela

tive

emiss

ions

OECD90 forecasts from IPCC EU forecasts EU forecasts with environmental measures

Comparison between CO2 annual

emission forecasts for EU30

Gt

/y o

f C

years


Why Hydrogen?Why Hydrogen?

Hydrogen can be a viable solution as: Is CO2 and pollutant emissions-free at the final use

(transport, electricity production, etc.), while emissions can be heavily reduced during the production processes

Can be obtained from a variety of different primary sources (fossil, renewable, nuclear)

Can have higher efficiency, especially if converted in fuel cells, therefore reducing overall CO2 emissions, even if separation and sequestration are not carried out (whenever H2 is produced from fossil fuels)


A vision for the future Hydrogen societyA vision for the future Hydrogen society

H 2


Hydrogen scenarios for environment preservation Hydrogen scenarios for environment preservation

Two hydrogen penetration scenarios have been considered, both of them based on the lower curve of the previous figure (about 2050 Mt of CO2 less than the baseline in 2030): scenario A, (high hydrogen penetration), characterised by an

early introduction of the hydrogen, that covers a significant share of the total EU30 energy;

scenario B, (low hydrogen penetration), with a H2 penetration in longer times; H2 covers only a share of few % of the total EU30 energy in 2030.


Scenario A featuresScenario A features

Hydrogen is produced from fossil sources in centralised plants whose size is of about 100 Mt/year (I.e. 286 Mtep/year), with partial or total separation and sequestration of CO2;

hydrogen is produced also from renewables, whose market covers 22% of total energy in 2030 (mainly from biomasses); beyond 2020, also thermo-chemical processes are available;

infrastructures are available on the EU territory both for stationary use and traction in 2030;

industrial enterprises and services are also available for the required hydrogen technologies (from the production to the final use of the hydrogen);

a significant share of hydrogen vehicles is deployed for road transport (starting with buses and city goods delivery vehicles and then including private cars); technologies are mainly based on fuel cells (66 millions of vehicles in EU30);

fuel cell systems of different size for distributed generation/cogeneration (from a few kW to a few tens of MW) have been also deployed.


Scenario B featuresScenario B features

Hydrogen is produced from fossil sources (28 Mt/year corresponding to 80 Mtep/year), in a few centralised plants, with CO2 separation and sequestration, and in smaller plants near to final users, with CO2 separation for industrial uses;

hydrogen production from renewable sources is limited (about 3Mt/year);

infrastructures and services have been developed only in some regions and normally located near the production plants;

hydrogen vehicles are mainly used in public transport and captive fleets, where the availability of infrastructures can be better overcome, with a total of 14 millions of vehicles in EU30;

the hydrogen penetration is easier for the stationary market sectors where the availability of diffused infrastructures is not required.


Hydrogen benefits in terms of COHydrogen benefits in terms of CO22

Hydrogen effect on CO2 reduction

549

137

192

41

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Scenario A Scenario B

Mt

of

CO

2 av

oid

ed Transport

Energyproduction


Hydrogen benefits in terms of pollutant emissionsHydrogen benefits in terms of pollutant emissions

Scenario A emission reduction

0,0%

2,0%

4,0%

6,0%

8,0%

10,0%

12,0%

NOx

SO2

CO

PM10

VOC

Benz

ene Type of pollutant

Emiss

ion

educ

tion

Energyproduction

Roadtransport

Scenario B emission reduction

0,0%

2,0%

4,0%

6,0%

8,0%

10,0%

12,0%

NOx

SO2

CO

PM10

VOC

Benz

ene Type of pollutant

Emiss

ion

educ

tion

Energyproduction

Roadtransport

Scenario A Scenario B


Hydrogen cost evaluation (billions of €)Hydrogen cost evaluation (billions of €)

Process Scenario A Scenario B Production from fossil fuels (with capture and sequestration of CO2 for centralised plants)

150 35

Production from renewables 100 17 Total production 250 52 Network 100 12 Refuelling stations 17 (80 with on-

site production) 7 (28 with on-site

production) Total 367 71


Final ConsiderationsFinal Considerations

The most relevant effects of future hydrogen introduction are: Consistent benefits are resulting, especially in terms of CO2 emission

reduction; therefore economic savings are possible, avoiding additional measures to cut emissions

Considerable reduction of pollutant emissions is also attained and this can have very positive impacts in urban areas

Considering constant the oil price in the medium-long term (safe assumption), hydrogen costs are high, but affordable, keeping in mind that other measures are needed if environmental targets have to be met; of course the H2 economic impact would be significantly lower if oil price increases.

The high effort to promote the hydrogen introduction in the energy market can create technological opportunities and increase the European competitiveness in the economic field


ReferencesReferences

A full copy of the report

Socio-economic Aspects of the Hydrogen Economy DevelopmentAuthor(s): F. Di Mario, A. Iacobazzi, R. Infusino, A.

Mattucci, A. Soria (ed.) EUR No: EUR 20668 EN Year: 2003 ISBN: 92-894-5569-1

can be downloaded from the site:

http://www.jrc.es/home/publications/publication.cfm?pub=1090

seventh international conference on technologies and combustion for a clean environment - july 2003,...

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