severe hazards analysis & verification experiment (shave) kevin scharfenberg ou-cimms &...
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Severe Hazards Analysis & Verification Experiment
(SHAVE)
Kevin ScharfenbergOU-CIMMS & NOAA-NSSL
2nd Workshop on NWS Severe Weather Warning Technology -- 11 July 2007 -- Norman, OK
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SHAVE 2006
•Goal: Collect high temporal and spatial resolution data that describe the distribution of hail sizes in hail swaths produced by thunderstorms
• Verification and validation of multi-radar/multi-sensor hail algorithms
Severe HAil & Verification Experiment 2006
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SHAVE 2006
More SHAVE 2006 goals:
• Use high-resolution verification data in the development of techniques for probabilistic warnings of severe thunderstorms
• Associate changes in the hail size distribution with storm evolution
• Enhance climatological information about hail in the United States
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SHAVE 2006
Data sources:
Google Earth (business locations and phone numbers)
Rural phone directories (selected counties with plat maps)
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SHAVE 2006 results
Data collection days 83
Total phone calls 13854
“Good” data points 4880
“Good” except time 658
Hail w/ questionable location 42
Hail w/ questionable size 371
Busy / intercept operator 777
Wrong location 47
No answer or machine 5485
Disconnected / Do Not Call 1286
Other 307
Areal resolution:
~ 1 point / 59 km2
Temporal resolution:
~ 1 point / 3.1 minutes
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Storm Data problemsSHAVE verification calls during summer 2006
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Storm Data problems
Storm Data reports:1 tornado, 1.75” hail
SHAVE hail reports (~35)
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Storm Data problems
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Storm Data problems
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SHAVE 2007
Severe Hazards Analysis & Verification Experiment 2007
+ Expand effort to include wind and tornado damage swaths+ Focus on verification for Oklahoma resources (PAR, CASA, KOUN, etc.)
New resources:• Online media (streaming local TV coverage, local newspapers, newswires)• SpotterNetwork.org• Delorme Street Atlas 2007 residential phone database• Digital locators (county assessor databases, 411.com)
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SHAVE 2007
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Setting an aggressive agenda for change
Argument: Change is needed
Existing storm database resolution and associated verification methods are incompatible with planned resolution of “warn-on-forecast” models and gridded threat-based warnings
Our ability to resolve features is outpacing our ability to document them
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Setting an aggressive agenda for change
For discussion:
Gridded, probabilistic verification
- Probability of exceedance- Initialized by computer model/algorithm- Calibrated by nearby reports & human analysis- Reports still catalogued - Multimedia, online, collaborative, near-real-time data portal (e.g., wiki)