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Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit Institute for the Study of Labor DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES Sexual Violence, Title IX and Women’s College Enrollment IZA DP No. 10345 November 2016 Dave E. Marcotte Jane E. Palmer

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Page 1: Sexual Violence, Title IX and Women’s College Enrollment Violence... · College and university campuses have long been places where sexual violence against students is endemic

Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der ArbeitInstitute for the Study of Labor

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Sexual Violence, Title IX and Women’sCollege Enrollment

IZA DP No. 10345

November 2016

Dave E. MarcotteJane E. Palmer

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Sexual Violence, Title IX and Women’s College Enrollment

Dave E. Marcotte American University

and IZA

Jane E. Palmer

American University

Discussion Paper No. 10345 November 2016

IZA

P.O. Box 7240 53072 Bonn

Germany

Phone: +49-228-3894-0 Fax: +49-228-3894-180

E-mail: [email protected]

Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of IZA. Research published in this series may include views on policy, but the institute itself takes no institutional policy positions. The IZA research network is committed to the IZA Guiding Principles of Research Integrity. The Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn is a local and virtual international research center and a place of communication between science, politics and business. IZA is an independent nonprofit organization supported by Deutsche Post Foundation. The center is associated with the University of Bonn and offers a stimulating research environment through its international network, workshops and conferences, data service, project support, research visits and doctoral program. IZA engages in (i) original and internationally competitive research in all fields of labor economics, (ii) development of policy concepts, and (iii) dissemination of research results and concepts to the interested public. IZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available directly from the author.

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IZA Discussion Paper No. 10345 November 2016

ABSTRACT

Sexual Violence, Title IX and Women’s College Enrollment Sexual violence has long been a problem on college campuses, yet federal policies to protect students have largely been ineffectual. Spurred by student grievances, the U.S. Department of Education’s Office of Civil Rights recently began investigating how sexual assault cases were handled at a number of institutions under the Title IX provisions of the Education Amendments of 1972. These investigations focus attention on specific colleges’ responses to cases of sexual violence and raise the specter that these institutions may fail to properly investigate allegations or punish perpetrators. In this paper, we examine the implications of these investigations on college enrollment, particularly for women. We combine institution-level panel data on enrollment by age and gender, with information on Title IX investigations to study changes in women’s college enrollment. We estimate that enrollment of women at colleges under Title IX investigation declined by 16 to 22 percent. The declines are consistent with both declining matriculation and retention of female students. JEL Classification: I24, J16 Keywords: college, educational attainment, sexual assault Corresponding author: Dave E. Marcotte School of Public Affairs American University 4400 Massachusetts Avenue NW Washington, DC 20016-8070 USA E-mail: [email protected]

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IZA Discussion Paper No. 10345 November 2016

NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARY

We assess the impact of high profile federal investigations of the handling of sexual assault claims at colleges and universities in the United States. Notably, we examine the impact of these investigations on student enrollment, rather than on outcomes one might expect would be most directly affected, such as rates of sexual assaults, supports for victims, and punishments for perpetrators. Sexual victimization and how a university handles those claims affect students beyond those directly involved. Our focus is broad because the climate and perceptions of a campus can affect the student body generally, and especially female students. We find that enrollment of women of all ages drops following a Title IX investigation, with no similar changes for men. We estimate that the college enrollment decisions of more than 30,000 women changed as a result of a Title IX investigation, and more than two-thirds of this is due to declining retention at colleges under investigation. Our paper illustrates that attention to the appearance of insufficient protections and processes at specific colleges had clear effects on the enrollment of women. That many women “voted with their feet” by leaving or avoiding institutions under investigation makes clear the stakes are high for colleges and universities. Since female students make up a sizeable majority of undergraduates, assuring that their safety and protection are paramount concerns will be essential for any college or university that hopes to thrive.

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Collegeanduniversitycampuseshavelongbeenplaceswheresexual

violenceagainststudentsisendemic.Thoughnotoriouslydifficulttomeasure,1

studiesconsistentlyestimatethatapproximately18to20percentofundergraduate

womenarevictimsofsexualassaultduringcollege(NationalInstituteofJustice,

2008).Whilehighprofilecaseshaverecentlyfocusedattentionontheissue,2sexual

violenceoncollegecampusesisnotnew.Indeed,themostimportantfederal

legislationaimedatprotectingcollegestudents,theCleryAct,waspassedmorethan

25yearsago.Unfortunately,thereislittleevidencethatfederalpoliciesintendedto

reducetheincidenceofsexualassaultorprotectvictimshavebeeneffective.

Thepersistenceoftheproblemalongwithperceptionsofinstitutionalfailure

ledstudentactivistsinthe2000stopushtheU.S.DepartmentofEducationto

investigateclaimsthatthefailuretoprotectvictimsofsexualassaultatsome

collegesresultedinunequalaccesstoeducationalopportunityforwomen.The

adventofthisuseofequalaccessrequirementsoffederallawasameanstobring

attentionandremediationhasresultedinasubstantialshiftinfederalpolicyand

publicattentiontotheissue.Inthispaperwedescribethegrowthintheuseof

investigationsofindividualcollegesanduniversitiesbytheU.S.Departmentof

Education’sOfficeofCivilRights(OCR)inresponsetocomplaintsfiledunderTitleIX

oftheEducationAmendmentsof1972--establishedtoprohibitdiscriminationon

1SeePalmerandPerrotti(2016)andFedina,Holmes&Backes,2016fordiscussionsofmeasurementissues.2ExamplesincludeaColumbiaUniversitystudent’syears-longprotestbycarryinghermattressasasymbolofhervictimizationandtheuniversity’sresponse(e.g.NYTimes,Sept.21,2014)andtheturmoilattheUniversityofVirginiafollowingalater-retractedarticleinRollingStone.

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thebasisofsexinallactivitiesatcollegesanduniversitiesbenefitingfromfederal

funding.3

Becausetheseinvestigationsarebasedoncomplaintsthatinstitutionsdid

notproperlyinvestigateoradjudicateinstancesofsexualviolence,theymaysignal

tocurrentandprospectivestudentsthatacollegeoruniversityisnotsafeordoes

nottakesexualassaultseriously.Inthispaper,weassessthispossibilityby

examiningwhetherenrollmentatcollegesanduniversitiesisaffectedbythe

initiationofaTitleIXinvestigationforfailuretohandleacredibleallegationof

sexualviolence.Sincewomenareoverwhelminglythevictimsofsexualviolence,we

examinewhetherenrollmentofwomendecreasesataninstitutioncomparedto

menoverthesameperiod.

Todothis,wecompileddataonenrollmentoffull-timeundergraduatesby

genderandageatallbachelordegreegrantingpublicandnot-for-profitcollegesand

universitiesfrom2005through2014.WemergeddataonwhereandwhenOCR

openedTitleIXinvestigations,obtainedfromtheChronicleofHigherEducation’s

TitleIXTrackerdatabase.4Usingthesecombineddata,weestimateevent-study

modelsofenrollmentchangeswithinauniversitybygenderandagegroups

followingtheopeningofaninvestigation.Wefindthatenrollmentofwomenofall

agesdropsfollowingaTitleIXinvestigation,withnosimilarchangesformen.The

enrollmentdeclinesforyoung(17to19yearsold)undergraduatewomenmaybe

3Thiseffectivelymeansallcollegesanduniversities,becauseoftheimportanceoffederalstudentfinancialaid,includingPellGrantsandsubsidizedloans.4http://projects.chronicle.com/titleix/

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duetodecliningapplicationandmatriculationrates.Buttheslightlyhigherdeclines

amongwomenintheirearly20sislikelyduetodropoutandtransfer.

Webeginwithanintroductiontotheissue,includingdescribingthescope

anddimensionsofsexualviolenceoncampus.Wethenbrieflydescribethe

institutionalandjudicialprocessesthroughwhichvictimscanseekredress,along

withthedevelopmentofTitleIXinvestigationsofstudentallegationsofundue

treatment.

Background

Campussexualassaulthaslongbeenthesubjectofstudybyresearchers

fromthefieldsofcriminology,psychology,socialworkandrelatedfields.Estimates

ofsexualvictimizationcansometimesbedifficulttocompare,andcancause

confusionamongnon-researchers.Thedifficultiesarisebecauseresearchersuse

differentreportingperiods,havedifferentratesofresponseinsurveys(where

subjectsareaskednecessarilysensitiveandpotentiallytraumaticquestions),and

researchersmeasuresexualvictimizationdifferently(Fedina,Holmes&Backes,

2016;Palmer&Perrotti,2016).

Forexample,thefirstmajorstudyonsexualassaultvictimizationamong

collegewomenwasKoss,GidyczandWisniewski(1987),inwhichtheauthors

estimatedthatmorethanoneinfourcollegewomenhadexperiencedattemptedor

completedrape.WhileKossetal.(1987)measuredvictimizationsincetheageof14,

notjustsincedateofcollegematriculation,theirestimateswerequitesimilarto

laterestimatesfocusingonlyonvictimizationduringcollege.Forexample,the

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NationalCollegeWomenSexualVictimizationstudyestimatedthat20–25%of

womenwouldexperienceattemptedorcompletedrapewhileattendingcollege

(Fisher,Cullen&Turner,2000).Morerecently,Krebs,etal.(2007)foundthat,

withinrandomsamplesattwolargepublicuniversities,approximately1in4

womenexperiencedattemptedorcompletedsexualassaultusingforceor

incapacitationsinceenteringcollege.5Inthesameyear,Kilpatricketal.(2007)

reportedthat5.2%ofanationalsampleof2,000collegewomenexperienced

completedrapeusingforceorincapacitationinthepastacademicyear,whichover

fouryearswouldbecomparabletoearlierestimates.

Notethatthereferenceperiod(since14,sinceenteringcollege,past

academicyear)andhowvictimizationwasmeasured(sexualassault,attempted

rape,completedrape)variesforeachstudy.Inaddition,underreportingmaybea

largerissueforsurveysthataskaboutrape,ratherthanabroadermeasurelike

unwantedsexualactivityorsexualassault.Still,nomatterthemeasure,the

estimatesaredisturbinglyhigh.

Althoughimportantissuesinconsistentlymeasuringsexualviolenceacross

studiesremain(Fedina,etal.,2016;Kruttschnitt,Kalsbeek&House,2014;Palmer&

Perrotti,2016),thereissolidevidenceontheeffectsofsexualviolenceonvictims.

Traumaassociatedwithexperiencingsexualassaultcanresultindepression,

anxiety,post-traumaticstressdisorderandarangeofphysicalhealthissuesthat

5TheKossetal.andFisheretal.studiesfocusedonmeasuringincidentsthatwouldlegallybedefinedasrape.TheKrebsetal.studymeasuredincidencesof“sexualassault”,whichisbroaderthan“rape,”butstillincludesillegalbehaviorsrelatedtounwantedsexualactivity(includingrapeandattemptedrape)withoutconsent.

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mayimpactastudent’sabilitytocompleteadegree(Campbell,Dworkin,&Cabral,

2009;Kilpatrick,etal.,2007).

PolicyContext

Thehistoryoffederallegislationtoprotectcollegestudentsfromcriminal

victimizationbeginswiththeCleryActof1990.ThemainprovisionofClery

requirescollegesanduniversitiestomakecrimestatisticspubliclyavailableand

issuetimelywarningsofanyongoingthreatstothecampuspopulation.Institutions

arealsorequiredtoprovidevictimswithsupportintheaftermathofthecrimeand

implementpoliciesandprocedurestoensurethatvictimsaretreatedfairlyduring

crimereportingandadjudicationprocesses(USDepartmentofEducation,2016).

Yet,institutionshaveadisincentivetoencouragestudentstoreport,since

crimestatisticsarepubliclyavailableandmayaffectpublicperceptionsofthe

institutionandfutureenrollment.Forotherreasons,too,criticshavedescribedthe

CleryActassymbolicratherthansubstantial(Fisher,Hartman,Cullen&Turner,

2002).Thestatisticsthatcollegesanduniversitiesreportarenotinclusiveofall

crimes,becausetheyareonlyrequiredtoreportcrimesthatoccurredonornear

campusorcampusproperty.Inaddition,thefailuretodistinguishbetweencrimes

inwhichstudents(oremployees)arevictimsorperpetratorshasmeantthat

reporteddatadoesnotdistinguishbetweendangerouscampusesanddangerous

citiesinwhichcollegesaresituated.Afurthercomplicationarisesbecauseofthe

generalreluctanceofstudentstoreportsexualassaulttoauthorities(Fisheretal.,

2000).Asaresult,highersexualassaultstatisticsmaybeindicatorsofacampus

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climateconducivetoincreasingstudentwillingnesstoreportassaults,ratherthan

underlyingvictimizationrates(Cantalupo,2011;Palmer&Alda,2016).

TheViolenceAgainstWomenAct(VAWA),firstauthorizedin1994aspartof

theViolentCrimeControlandLawEnforcementAct(H.R.3355),supplemented

federallawtoprotectstudents(andothers)oncollegeanduniversitycampuses

(Dunn,2013;Schroeder,2013).In1999,thefirstCampusGrants,usingVAWA

funds,wereawardedtosupportinitiativestopreventandrespondtoviolentcrimes

againstwomenoncollegecampuses.Inadditiontograntingfundssuchprograms,

thelawalsorequirescollegesanduniversitiestooffersexualassaultprevention

programsforallincomingstudentsandnewemployees.Inaddition,VAWAoutlines

severalproceduralrequirementsrelatedtoadjudicationprocessincasesofsexual

violencetoassuretransparency,andalsoconfidentialityforthevictim.

TheUseofTitleIXtoCombatSexualViolence

In2011,theU.S.DepartmentofEducation’sOfficeofCivilRightsreleaseda

“DearColleagueLetter”(DCL)6thatclarifiedtherequirementsofTitleIXinthe

contextofsexualviolenceatallpublicandprivateschools,collegesanduniversities

thatreceivefederalfinancialassistance.TitleIXisacivilrightslawpassedaspartof

theHigherEducationAmendmentsof1972toassureequalaccesstoeducation.The

initialimplementationofthislawfocusedonfemalestudents’accesstosportsand

equitableathleticfacilities.Overtime,thelawwasinterpretedtoincludeother

formsofsex-specificdiscriminationthataffectfemalestudents’equalaccessto

6Seehttp://www2.ed.gov/about/offices/list/ocr/letters/colleague-201104.html

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education.TheOCRisresponsibleforinvestigatinganycomplaintthatan

educationalinstitutionviolatedTitleIX.

TheDCLclarifiedthatTitleIXrequiresapromptandequitableinvestigation

iftheschoolisawareofanallegationofsexualharassmentorsexualviolence.Ifa

school“knowsorreasonablyshouldknow”ofaninstanceofsexualharassmentor

sexualviolence,itisrequiredtoimmediatelycompletea“prompt,thoroughand

impartial”investigation.Anyadjudicationprocessmustuseapreponderanceof

evidencestandard,whichisalowerburdenofproofthanthebeyondareasonable

doubtstandardusedforsexualassaultcasesinthecriminaljusticesystem.Ifthe

adjudicationprocessresultsinafindingthatsexualviolenceoccurred,the

institutionmust“takeimmediateactiontoeliminatethehostileenvironment,

preventitsreoccurrence,andaddressitseffects”(DCL,2011,p.15).Ifavictim

believesanyofthesestepswerenotfollowedadequately,sheorhecanelecttofilea

complaintwithOCRwithin180days.IfOCRdeterminesthecollegeoruniversity

doesnotrespondinpromptlyandequitably,itmayindicatetheinstitutionviolated

TitleIX.Schoolsthatarefoundtobenon-compliantcanfacefines,losefederal

fundingandberequiredtotakestepstoremedyorcorrecttheirresponsetosexual

violence.

TitleIXandPublicAwareness

TheOCR’sactionwaslargelyinresponsetogrowingpublicattentiontothe

issueofcampussexualassaultandhowitwasbeinghandled.In2010,National

PublicRadioandtheCenterforPublicIntegrityreleasedaseriesonfailureby

collegestoprotectwomenfromcampusrape.Theirinvestigationsfoundthat

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collegesrarelyexpelsexualassaultperpetratorsandpreventionprogramsputthe

responsibilityonwomentopreventrape.Theypresentedtheirfindingsdirectlyto

theAssistantSecretaryforOCR,whocommittedtomoreaggressivelyaddress

sexualviolenceoncollegecampuses(NPR,2010).Morerecentexamplesofpublic

attentionincludethe2015documentaryfilmTheHuntingGround,whichoffered

severalsurvivors’perspectivesofhowtheiruniversitiesdidnotproperlyrespondto

theirallegationsofsexualassault,andfollowstwoactivistswhobegantoteachtheir

peershowtofileacomplaintwiththeOCR.Thesameyearawidelyreadbookonthe

handlingofsexualviolencecasesbytheUniversityofMontanaandthelocalpolice

helpedtofurtherraisethepublic’sawarenessoftheinstitutionalprotectionismand

inadequateresponsethatmanystudentsfacewhentheyreportsexualviolenceto

universityadministrators(Krakauer,2015).

Formany,therealizationthatsexualviolencewasendemiconcollege

campusesandthatinstitutionswerenotproperlyrespondingtothesecrimes,was

somewhatofashocktothegeneralsenseofrealadvancesforwomeninhigher

education.Theshareofwomenenrollinginandgraduatingfromcollegehaslong

beengrowing.Women’sundergraduateenrollmentsurpassedmen’senrollmentin

thelate1970sandby2009,therewereapproximately132womenenrolledin

Americancollegesanduniversitiesforeach100men(Audetal.2011).However,the

campussettingisauniqueplaceforbothraisingtheriskofsexualassaultandfor

cloudingtheprocessofprotectingvictimsandpunishingcriminals.

TheOCR’sincreaseinTitleIXinvestigationshavefocusedsubstantial

attentiononissuesofclimateandsafetyforwomen.Eachnewinvestigationis

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widelycoveredinnationalnews,andtheChronicleofHigherEducationhasdevoted

specialattentiontoeachcase.7InMayof2014,forthefirsttimeever,OCRmade

publicthelistof55highereducationalinstitutionswithopenTitleIXinvestigations

relatedtosexualviolence.AsofSeptember2016,thereare277opensexualviolence

investigationsat214collegesanduniversities.

UnlikeClery,whichprovidesgeneralinformationaboutcrimestatistics,Title

IXinvestigationshavefocusedattentiononsexualassaultatspecificinstitutions,

andhowtheseschoolshandlevictims’complaints,andhowtheytreatoffenders.

Consequently,TitleIXinvestigationsmaycauserealconcernamongprospectiveand

currentstudentsaboutschoolclimate.Thesecasesmaybeseenaswarningsigns

abouttheextentofsexualvictimizationonagivencampusandthedegreetowhich

students’complaintsaretakenseriouslyandjudiciouslyprocessed.Below,we

describeourmethodsforexaminingwhethertheopeningofaTitleIXinvestigation

affectsenrollmentatacollegeoruniversity.

DataandModel:

TostudytheimpactofaTitleIXinvestigationonstudentenrollment,weuse

datafromtheIntegratedPostsecondaryEducationDataSystem(IPEDS)for

academicyears2006-07through2013-14.Werestrictouranalysestopublicand

non-profitinstitutionsthatgrantbachelor’sdegrees.Therefore,weomitallfor-

profitandtwo-yearcolleges.TheIPEDSinstitutionaldataincludesinformationon

thecostofattendanceineachyearincludingtuitionandfeesandfinancialaid,along

withotherfactorsthatwouldaffectenrollment.Theseincludeselectivityas7http://projects.chronicle.com/titleix/

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measuredbyadmissionrateandgraduationrates,measuredastheproportionof

matriculatingfreshmenreceivingabachelor’sdegreewithinsixyears.Wealso

includemeasuresofuniversitytypes:distinguishingbetweenresearch-intensive

(Ph.D.granting)universities,andthoseofferingmainlymaster’sdegreesastheir

highestdegrees,separatefromtraditionalbachelor’sgrantingliberalartscolleges.

Onallofthesedimensionswedistinguishbetweennon-profitandpublic

universities.

TheIPEDSalsoprovidesdetailedenrollmentdatabyage,gender,andlevelof

study(undergraduatevs.graduate)foreachinstitution.Thisenrollment

(headcount)dataisrecordedintheFallofanacademicyearandisusuallyreported

annually,howeveritisonlymandatorybiennially.So,forsomesmallercollegeswe

observegroup-specificenrollmentonlyeveryotheryear.8Wecombinethe

institutionalandenrollmentdatatoconstructadatasetofyear-specificenrollment

inallpublicandnon-profitcollegesthatgrantbachelorsdegrees,byageandgender

between2006and2014.

Tothisdataset,weaddinformationonTitleIXinvestigationsfromthe

ChronicleofHigherEducation’sTitleIXTrackerdatabase,whichcompiles

informationfromFreedomofInformationActrequestsoftheU.S.Departmentof

Education.9TheinformationoncasesintheTitleIXTrackervariesbyinstitution.

However,allcasefilesincludeadateonwhichtheOCRdeterminedthatacomplaint

hadmeritandopenedaninvestigationintothehandlingofacomplaintofsexual

violencebyaninstitution.8Wediscusstheimplicationsofthisforourempiricalmodelsbelow.9http://projects.chronicle.com/titleix/

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TomeasureimpactsofTitleIX,wegenerateindicatorsofwhetheracollege

oruniversityhadaninvestigationopeninanacademicyear.Weassignan

investigationtoanacademicyearifOCRnotifiedtheinstitutionbyMayofthatyear.

So,wewouldclassifyanoticeissuedinJune2011asoccurringinthe2011-12

academicyear.Werecognizethatanindicatorvariableofacaseopenedinan

academicyearisacrudemeasureofenrollmenteffects:Itmighttaketimefor

matriculatingorprospectivestudentstoreactorcurrentstudentstotransferifa

TitleIXinvestigationwasasourceofconcern.Or,itcouldbethatcasesofsexual

violencethatarebroughttotheU.S.DepartmentofEducationaresourcesofupsetat

auniversitybeforeanyTitleIXinvestigationislaunched.Tomeasurethese

possibilities,weestimatemodelswithbothleadingandlaggingindicatorsofTitleIX

investigations.

WeusethesedatatoestimatetheimpactofTitleIXinvestigationson

enrollmentusingmodelsofthefollowingtype:

!"#"$%!!&'( = * + ,-.&( + /'012!34.&('

+ 5' + 6( + !& + 7&'( !

wherethedependentvariableisthelogofenrollmentoffull-timestudentsatschool

s,inyeartforeachoffourgroups(g).Thegroupsare1)Womenfrom17-19years

old,2)Menfrom17-19yearsold,3)Women20to24yearsold,and4)Menfrom20

to24yearsold.Enrollmentisloggedbecauseitishighlypositivelyskewed.We

includeaseriesofcontrolvariables(Xst)likelytoaffectenrollment,suchastuition

andfeesandthepercentofstudentsreceivingaid;theadmissionand(6-year)

graduationratesandtheshareofallstudentsinundergraduateversusgraduate

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programs.TitleIXstisanindicatorofwhetherinstitutionswasunderinvestigationin

academicyeart.Thecoefficientsofinterestarethed’swhichmeasureenrollment

changesforeachgroupcoincidentwithaTitleIXinvestigation.Wecontrolforboth

yearandinstitutionfixedeffects,sothed’smeasurechangesineachgroup’s

enrollmentwithinaninstitutionattheoutsetofaninvestigation,netofyearand

groupspecificenrollmenteffectsmoregenerally.Allstandarderrorsareclustered

atthecollege/universitylevel,andwerestrictouranalysestocollegeswithatotal

enrollmentofmorethan100students.

Ourmodelsaresimilartothestandarddifference-in-differences

parameterizationofamodelwhereinonecomparesgroupsaffected/unaffectedby

anevent/policy.Sincewomenareoverwhelminglythevictimsofsexualviolence,

andthevastmajorityofTitleIXinvestigationsareinresponsetocasesbroughtby

women,onemightexpectdifferentresponsesfromfemaleandmalestudents.

However,theenrollmentofmalestudentsmayalsobeaffectedbythenegative

attentionbroughtontoacollegebyaninvestigation.So,weestimateenrollment

responsesforallgroups,andtestforbetween-groupdifferences.

Twoillustrativecasesofhowfemaleandmalestudentsmightrespondtoa

TitleIXinvestigationareMichiganStateandtheUniversityofMontana.Figure1

showsenrollmentofyoungwomenandmenatMichiganState.BeforetheOCR

openedaTitleIXinvestigationforMichiganState’shandlingofasexualassaultofa

student(representedbytheverticalline),theundergraduatestudentbodywas

majorityfemale.Leadinguptotheinvestigation,thenumberoffemalestudentsfell

(byabout800,or10percent),whilethenumberofmalestudentsgrew.Thisisin

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contrasttopatternsattheUniversityofMontana(Figure2),whereenrollmentfell

forbothmenandwomen.Montanawasthesubjectofintensemediascrutiny

followingtwoaccusationsofrapeagainstfootballplayers(seeKrakauer,2015).

Figures1and2illustrateanotherimportantissue.BecauseTitleIX

investigationsareinitiatedafteranunsatisfactorycampusadjudicationprocess,

theylagassaultsandthepublicityandproteststhatcanembroilacollegeintheir

wakeandduringtheprocess.Asaresult,wealsoestimatemodelsthatinclude

indicatorsfortheyearsbeforeaTitleIXinvestigation.Wealsoincludeanindicator

oftheyearafter,toassesswhetherenrollmenteffectsareshort-lived.

Figure1

6000

6500

7000

7500

Men

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

Wom

en

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014Academic Year

Women MenVertical line indicates date of Title IX case opening

Michigan State Univ.FT Undergrads < 20 yrs. Old - by Gender

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Figure2

1100

1200

1300

1400

Men

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

Wom

en

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014Academic Year

Women MenVertical line indicates date of Title IX case opening

Univ. of MontanaFT Undergraduates < 20 yrs. Old - by Gender

Results

Figure3providesacomparisonofthe56collegesanduniversitiessubjectto

TitleIXinvestigationsbylatespringof2014.Collegessubjecttoinvestigationwere

morelikelytobelarge,research-intensive(R1)universities,eitherpublicorprivate.

Approximatelythree-quartersoftheinstitutionsunderTitleIXinvestigationwerein

thiscategory.Lower-tier,lessselectiveschools(R2)werelessrepresentedamong

schoolsunderinvestigation.

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Figure3

Publ. R1

Publ. R2

Priv. R1

Priv. R2

Priv. BA

Publ. BA

Publ. R1

Publ. R2

Priv. R1

Priv. R2

Priv. BA

Publ. BA

No Investigation Title IX Investigation

Authors calcutations from IPEDS

By Title IX StatusType and Control of College & University

InTable1weprovideadditionalcomparativeevidenceofschoolsunder

investigationandthosethatwerenot.SchoolsunderTitleIXinvestigationare,on

average,muchlarger,theyaremoreselectiveandhavehighergraduationrates.

Schoolsunderinvestigationadmitabouthalfofapplicants,comparedto63percent

forotherschools,andSATscoresatthe75thpercentileareafullstandarddeviation

higher.Remarkably,1in4schoolsunderTitleIXinvestigationarestateflagship

universities.

InTable2wepresenttheresultsofourmainempiricalmodel.Thefirst

columnpresentstheresultsofourmodelspecifiedabove.Thenexttwocolumns

differonlyinhowwemodelgeneralenrollmentchangesovertime.Model2includes

alineartimetrend,ratherthancontrollingforyearfixed-effects.Model3allows

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eachage/gendergrouptohaveitsowntrend.Model1islessrestrictivethan2,

becausegrowthinenrollmentisnotparametric.Model3ispreferredifonebelieves

thatenrollmentgrowthwouldbeexpectedtodifferbetweenage/gendergroups.

Sincecollegefixedeffectsareincludedinallmodels,theseestimatesare

robusttochangesinunmeasuredinstitutionalattributesthatmightaffect

enrollment.Theidentifyingassumptionisthattherearenounmeasuredchangesat

auniversitythatperfectlycoincideswiththeopeningofaTitleIXinvestigation.Of

course,itispossiblethataninvestigationspursresponsefromauniversity’s

administration.Thisisnotaconfounder,however.Rather,itwouldbepartand

parceloftheinvestigation.

Incolumn1,weestimatethatenrollmentforwomenunder20yearsofage

declinesapproximately16percentwhenauniversityisunderTitleIXinvestigation,

withevenlargerenrollmentdeclinesamongundergraduates20andolder(both

estimatesaresignificantatconventionallevels).Wefindnosimilardeclinesin

enrollmentformen.Indeed,weestimatethatenrollmentamongmenincreases,

thoughnotforoldermen.Oneexplanationforthispatternisthatenrollment

changesfor17to19year-oldcollegestudentsisdrivenmainlybychangesin

matriculationrates.Recallthatschoolsunderinvestigationarequiteselective.So,a

declineintherateatwhichwomenapply,acceptoffersandenrollmightactually

benefityoungmenasspotsattheseinstitutionsopenup.Forstudentsbeyondthe

Freshmenyear,changesinenrollmentarelikelytobemainlydrivenbydropout.So,

therelativelylargeenrollmentdeclineforwomenisbadforthewomeninvolved,

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andbadfortheinstitution,sincethesestudentscannotbesoreadilyreplaced.The

resultsfromModels2and3aresubstantiallyandstatisticallysimilar.

InTable3,weexaminewhetherenrollmenteffectsofTitleIXinvestigations

differbycollegeselectivity.Todoso,wegroupinstitutionsintothreecategories,

basedontheiradmissionsrates.Wedefineschoolsas“highlyselective”iftheyadmit

lessthanhalfofapplicants;“Selective”schoolsadmit50to75percentofapplicants,

and;“Lessselective”schoolsadmitmorethan75percent.Inallcases,theopeningof

aTitleIXinvestigationdecreasesenrollmentforwomennotintheirteens–though

theeffectisincreaseswithselectivity.Onlyforthehighlyselectiveschoolsisthere

alsoaneffectonenrollmentofwomenintheirteens.And,onlyattheseschoolsis

thereanincreaseinenrollmentformen.Thispatternisconsistentwiththe

possibilitydescribedabove,thatTitleIXinvestigationsandtheatmospherethey

signaldissuadeyoungwomenfrommatriculating,buttheirplacesaretakenatthese

highlyselectiveschoolsbyyoungmen.

Next,weexaminewhetherenrollmentataninstitutionchangesevenbeforea

TitleIXinvestigation,andwhetheranyenrollmentlossesarerecoupedinthe

subsequentyear.Todothis,were-estimateourmainmodel,butincludelead/lag

indicatorsforeachstudentgroup.Tosummarizethe12coefficientsofinterest,we

plottheresultsinFigure4.Thefigureillustratesthecoefficientsand95%

confidenceintervalsfortheindicatorvariablesforeachgrouponeyearbefore,the

yearof,andoneyearafteraTitleIXinvestigationwasopened.Recallthatthese

modelscontrolforinstitution,academicyear,andstudentgroupfixedeffects.Sothe

coefficientsmeasurechangesinenrollmentforagroupoverandabovechangesfor

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thatgroupinotheryearsandchangesforsamegroupinotheruniversitiesduring

thesameyear.Weincludeareferencelineatzero–theexpectedvalueiftherewas

nounusualchangeinenrollmentforagroup/institution/year.

Figure4

-.4-.2

0.2

.4C

hang

e in

ln(E

nrol

lmen

t)

Yr. Before IX IX Year Yr. After IX

Women < 20 Men < 20Women 20+ Men 20+

Change net of university, year and age/gender fixed effects

Estimates & 95% Confidence IntervalsEnrollment Effects Before/During/After Title IX: by Gender/Age Group

Wefindnoevidencethatenrollmentsdeclineintheyearleadingupto,orthe

yearafteraTitleIXinvestigationislaunched.Oneinterpretationofthefactthat

thereisnodropinenrollmentintheleadingacademicyearisthatitprovidesatype

offalsificationcheck.OurmainestimatesoffromTable2arenotdrivenbydeclines

inenrollmentamongwomenthatsimplyhappentobecoincidentwithaTitleIX

investigation.However,onemighthaveexpectedaleadingeffectifthepublicityofa

highprofilecaseprecededtheOCR’saction.However,ourmaincoefficientmaybe

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pickingupsomeofthissincestudentenrollmentlikelychangesslowly(asaccepted

studentsdeclineandcurrentstudentstransferorfailtoreturn).

DiscussionandImplications

Inthispaperweassesstheimpactofhighprofilefederalinvestigationsofthe

handlingofsexualassaultclaimsatcollegesanduniversitiesacrossthecountry.

Notably,weexaminetheimpactoftheseinvestigationsonstudentenrollment,

ratherthanonoutcomesonemightexpectwouldbemostdirectlyaffected,suchas

ratesofsexualassaults,supportsforvictims,andpunishmentsforperpetrators.One

reasonthatwefocusonthisbroaderoutcomeisduetothedifficultiesinherentin

measuringvictimization(giventheextentofunderreportingbyvictims).Butour

focusonenrollmentisalsopurposeful.Sexualvictimizationandhowauniversity

handlesthoseclaimsaffectstudentsbeyondthosedirectlyinvolved.Ourfocusis

broadbecausetheclimateandperceptionsofacampuscanaffectthestudentbody

generally,andespeciallyfemalestudents.

Usingaseriesofdifference-in-differencesestimateswefindthatenrollment

ofwomendropssharplyinresponsetotheinitiationofaTitleIXinquiry.Further,

usingatriple-differencestylecomparisonofwomenincontrasttomenat

institutionswith/withoutTitleIXinvestigations,wecanruleoutthepossibilitythat

subsequentenrollmentdeclinesweredrivenbyotherfactorsthatmadethese

institutionslessattractiveoptionsforstudents.Theenrollmentpatternswefind

followingtheinitiationofTitleIXinvestigationsareconsistentwithbothdeclinesin

therateofmatriculationandretentionoffemalestudents.

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WeestimatethatenrollmentofteenagewomenatcollegesunderTitleIX

investigationdeclinedby16percent,whiletheenrollmentofundergraduatewomen

from20to22yearsolddeclinedmorethan20percent.Ifweuseenrollmentmeans

fortheseschools,thisimpliesadeclineof330matriculation-agedwomen,and730

retention-agedwomenattheaverageschoolunderTitleIXinvestigation.These

numbersaredriveninbythefactthatTitleIXschoolsareoftenstateflagship

universities,withlargeenrollments.By2014,ourestimatesimplythecollege

enrollmentdecisionsofmorethan30,000womenchangedasaresultofaTitleIX

investigation.Tobesure,thisisasmallnumberrelativetothemorethan6.25

millionwomenenrolledasfull-timeundergraduatesatthetime.Nonetheless,the

enrollmentchangesinducedbyTitleIXcouldcertainlynegativelyaffectthe

prospectsofthoseinvolved,sincemorethantwo-thirdsoftheenrollmenteffectis

duetodecliningretention.

OurresultsalsosuggestthattheenrollmentshiftsduetoTitleIX

investigationsareshort-lived,andessentiallydisappearafterayear.Thiscouldbe

becausenews-cyclesareoftenshort.Or,itcouldbethatthestudentsmostupsetby

aninvestigationleaveimmediately,andthoseremainingarelesscompelledtodoso.

Amoreoptimisticinterpretationtotheshort-termenrollmenteffectsitthat

studentsatacampusunderinvestigationperceiverealchangesbeingmadein

response.

Itisimportanttorecognizethattheenrollmenteffectsidentifiedherepertain

onlytotheearly2010s.InthisperiodoftheuseofTitleIXtoinvestigatesexual

assaultwasnew,andthecollegesanduniversitiesunderinvestigationwere

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relativelyfew.Intheshorttimesincetheperiodstudiedhere,thenumberofTitleIX

investigationshasincreasedten-fold.Withsomanycasesopen,andopening,college

applicantsandstudentstodayhavefeweroptionstoavoidacampusthathasnot

beenunderinvestigation.

Itremainstobeseeniftherecentattentiontotheissueaffectsratesofsexual

violenceoncollegecampusesintheaggregate.Ourpaperillustratesthatattention

totheappearanceofinsufficientprotectionsandprocessesatspecificcollegeshad

cleareffectsontheenrollmentofwomen.Thatmanywomen“votedwiththeirfeet”

byleavingoravoidinginstitutionsunderinvestigationmakesclearthestakesare

highforcollegesanduniversities.Sincefemalestudentsmakeupasizeable

majorityofundergraduates,assuringthattheirsafetyandprotectionareparamount

concernswillbeessentialforanycollegeoruniversitythathopestothrive.The

federalrequirementsofCleryandthe2013recentreauthorizationofVAWAmean

thatcollegesanduniversitiesnationwideareincreasingtheamount,extentand

qualityofsexualassaultpreventionprogrammingtheyofferoncampus.Our

findingsindicatethattheoutcomesoftheseeffortsareconsequential.

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References

Aud,S.,Hussar,W.,Kena,G.,Bianco,K.,Frohlich,L.,Kemp,J.,Tahan,K.(2011).eConditionofEducation2011(NCES2011-033).U.S.DepartmentofEducation,NationalCenterforEducationStatistics.Washington,DC:U.S.GovernmentPrintingOffice.

Campbell,R.,Dworkin,E.,&Cabral,G.(2009).Anecologicalmodeloftheimpactofsexualassaultonwomen'smentalhealth.Trauma,Violence,&Abuse.Cantalupo,N.C.(2011).Buryingourheadsinthesand:lackofknowledge,Knowledgeavoidanceandthepersistentproblemofcampuspeersexualviolence.LoyolaUniversityChicagoLawJournal,43,205.CenterforPublicIntegrity.2010.https://www.publicintegrity.org/2010/02/24/4360/lack-consequences-sexual-assaultFedina,L.,Holmes,J.L.,&Backes,B.L.(2016).CampusSexualAssaultASystematicReviewofPrevalenceResearchFrom2000to2015.Trauma,Violence,&Abuse,1524838016631129.Dunn,L.L.(2013).AddressingSexualViolenceinHigherEducation:EnsuringCompliancewiththeCleryAct,TitleIXandVAWA.Geo.J.Gender&L.,15,563.Fisher,B.S.,Cullen,F.T.,&Turner,M.G.(2000).TheSexualVictimizationofCollegeWomen.ResearchReport.Koss,M.P.,Gidycz,C.A.,&Wisniewski,N.(1987).Thescopeofrape:incidenceandprevalenceofsexualaggressionandvictimizationinanationalsampleofhighereducationstudents.Journalofconsultingandclinicalpsychology,55(2),162.Krakauer,J.(2015).Missoula:Rapeandthejusticesysteminacollegetown.NewYork,NY:Doubleday.Krebs,C.P.,Lindquist,C.H.,Warner,T.D.,Fisher,B.S.,&Martin,S.L.(2007).Thecampussexualassault(CSA)study:Finalreport.Washington,DC:NationalInstituteofJustice,USDepartmentofJustice.Kruttschnitt,C.,Kalsbeek,W.D.,&House,C.C.(2014).Estimatingtheincidenceofrapeandsexualassault.Washington,DC:NationalResearchCouncil.Kilpatrick,D.G.,Resnick,H.S.,Ruggiero,K.J.,Conoscenti,L.M.,&McCauley,J.(2007).Drug-facilitated,incapacitated,andforciblerape:Anationalstudy.NationalCriminalJusticeReferenceService.

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NationalPublicRadio.(2010).SeekingJusticeforCampusRapes.WashingtonDC:NationalPublicRadiowiththeCenterforPublicIntegrity.Retrievedfromhttp://www.npr.org/series/124073905/seeking-justicefor-campus-rapes.Richards,T.&Kafonek,K.(2016).Reviewingstatelegislativeagendasregardingsexualassaultinhighereducation:Proliferationofbestpracticesandpointsofcaution.FeministCriminology,11(1),91-129.Schroeder,L.P.(2013).Cracksintheivorytower:HowtheCampusSexualViolenceEliminationActcanprotectstudentsfromsexualassault.Loy.U.Chi.LJ,45,1195.U.S.DepartmentofEducation.(2016).TheHandbookforCampusSafetyandSecurityReporting,2016Edition.Washington,D.C.:OfficeofPostsecondaryEducation.Retrievedfromhttp://www.ed.gov/admins/lead/safety/campus.html.USDepartmentofJustice,NationalInstituteofJustice.(2008).MeasuringFrequency.Retrievedfromhttp://www.nij.gov/topics/crime/rape-sexual-violence/campus/pages/measuring.aspx

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!

Table!1!!!!Descriptive!Statistics!of!Colleges/Universities:!!By!Title!IX!Status

Variable No!Title!IX!Case Title!IX!Case

Enrollment!(Headcount) 8022.8 17321.59351.2 15449

Admission!Rate 0.632 0.5310.182 0.242

Graduation!Rate! 0.533 0.7270.186 0.17

State!Flagship?!(0/1) 0.032 0.250.175 0.437

Tuition/Fees $17,711 $21,48611920 14859

Math!SAT!(75th!ptile) 589.5 664.967.9 82.5

Reading!SAT!(75th!ptile) 581.9 653.167.1 78

n=888 n=56

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Table&2&&&&&&Enrollment&Effects&of&Title&IX&Investigations

Variable Model&1 Model&2 Model&3Title&IX&x&Women&<&20 ?0.159** ?0.166** ?0.124

0.069 0.068 0.068Title&IX&x&Men&<&20 0.189* 0.181** 0.144

0.082 0.082 0.082Title&IX&x&Women&>=&20 ?0.242*** ?0.250*** ?0.221***

0.075 0.074 0.074Title&IX&x&Men&>=&20 0.114 0.106 0.081

0.062 0.062 0.063Admission&Rate 0.045 0.038 0.033

0.027 0.027 0.027Pct.&Receiving&Aid 0 0 0.001

?0.001 ?0.001 ?0.001Graduation&Rate&(6?year 0.127 0.129 0.149**

0.077 0.076 0.076Bach&Deg.&As&%&of&All&Degrees 0.175*** 0.144** 0.146**

0.066 ?0.066 ?0.073Tuition&&&Fees&($1,000s) ?0.002 ?0.003 ?0.002

0.002 0.002 0.001Time&Trend 0.017*** 0.012***

0.002 0.002Time&Trend&x&Men&<&20 0

0.002Time&Trend&x&Women&>=&20 0.005**

0.002Time&Trend&x&Men&>=&20 0.008***

0.003

Institution&FE? Yes Yes YesStudent&Group&(Age/Gender)&FE? Yes Yes YesYear&FE? Yes No NoTime&Trend? No Yes YesStudent&Group&Time&Trend? No No Yes

H o :&Women&<&20&=&Men&<&20&(p?value) <0.01 <0.01 0.012

H o :&Women&20+&=&Men&20+&(p?value) <0.01 <0.01 <0.01

R?squared 0.817 0.817 0.898N 30171 30171 29771

**&p<0.05,&***&p<0.01

All&models&control&for&institution&and&student&group&(age/gender)&fixed&effects

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Table&3&&&&&&Title&IX&Enrollment&Effects:&By&College&Selectivity

Variable Highly&Selective Selective Least&Selective

Title&IX&x&Women&<&20 D0.207* D0.1 D0.193

0.099 0.093 0.134

Title&IX&x&Men&<&20 0.325*** 0.188 0.001

0.094 0.128 0.108

Title&IX&x&Women&>=&20 D0.314** D0.255* D0.103*

0.097 0.126 0.052

Title&IX&x&Men&>=&20 0.158 0.084 0.149*

0.082 0.093 0.065

Admission&Rate 0.089 0.066 D0.076

0.133 0.059 0.09

Pct.&Receiving&Aid 0.001 0 0

0.001 0.001 0.001

Graduation&Rate&(6Dyear) 0.213 0.056 0.086

0.207 0.07 0.107

Bach&Deg.&As&%&of&All&Degrees D0.117 0.165* 0.107

0.177 0.071 0.09

Tuition&&&Fees&($1,000s) 0.003 D0.004 D0.001

0.003 0.003 0.003

Institution&FE? Yes Yes Yes

Student&Group&(Age/Gender)&FE? Yes Yes Yes

Year&FE? Yes Yes Yes

H o :&Women&<&20&=&Men&<&20&(pDvalue) <0.01 0.1978 0.2594

H o :&Women&20+&=&Men&20+&(pDvalue) <0.01 0.4289 0.0584

RDsquared 0.79 0.83 0.802

N 6169 14658 9344

*&p<0.05,&**&p<0.01,&***&p<0.001