SFFES- Ecological Sensitivity Workshop

CWHvh

(5% of District)

CWHvh – Calvin Ck, Nootka Is

CWHvh – Calvin Ck, Nootka Is. - Current BEC

CWHvh – Bookend climate scenarios

CWHvh – Calvin Ck, Nootka Is.– PCM-B1 2050

CWHvh– PCM-B1 2050

CDFmm temp

CWHvh(+)precip

CWHvh – Calvin Ck, Nootka Is.– HAD-A1FI 2050

CWHvh– HAD-A1F1 2050

CDFmm(+)temp

CWHmm2(++)Precip

CWHvh – HAD-A1F1 2050

Summer heat: moisture index

At the CWHvm level

CONSIDER CWHvh STAND / ECOSYSTEMS – In a changing climate

CWHvh STAND / ECOSYSTEMS- 2050(PCM & HAD)

SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION:

Vulnerability ClassesLow – Stands will suffer minor losses due to climate

change.Mod – likely will suffer significant but manageable

losses and or secondary risks (fire etc.)High – likely will suffer major losses or incur high

secondary risks, but catastrophic losses unlikely.Very High – likelihood for catastrophic losses are high.

Opportunity ClassesNil – No opportunity to enhance growth.Minor – Minor growth enhancement likely.Significant – significant growth enhancement

likely.

Species Vuln. Class

Opp. Class

Reasoning (e.g. drought stress/

Hw Low Nil-minor

No issues

Trees will grow better but also so will mistletoe

Some flooding at very low elevations (ocean rising).

More wind and severe weather = more decay – top breakage etc.

CWHvh STAND / ECOSYSTEMS- 2050(PCM & HAD)

SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION:Species Vuln. Class Opp.

ClassReasoning (e.g. drought stress/

Cw Low Minor to Signif

Increase in growth

No real problems

Fd High Nil It already is sensitive

Ss Low (locally moderate in very specific spots)

Minor No change

Flooding could be evident here – on alluvial areas – affected by estuary type conditions – Color-challenged ecosystem? Species?

Ba Low Minor May improve – more nutrients – cycling from decomp? / growing season moisture not an issue.

Still decay issues (with increased winds etc)

CWHvh Ecologically Suitable Regen – Now and Future

MESIC SITE DISCUSSION : 1. What are the vulnerabilities and why? (drought / insects /

disease?) 2. What are the opportunities – where / when?3. What are the outstanding questions?

% of orig area Ba Bg Bl Bp Cw Fd Hm Hw Lw Pl Pw Py Se Ss Sx Yc Act Dr Ep Mb Qg Ra

Present CWHvh1 (ha) 71,069 7 6 7, 35 b b

PCM-B1 2050

CWHvh1 94 7 6 7,35 b b

CWHvh1 39 7 6 7,35 b b

CWHvh1- warm 26

CWHvh hot 30Green Primary Footnotes in cells - see listYellow Secondary Orange Tertiary Novel climate envelope - suggested species

Preliminary Sensitivity InterpretationCWHvh1 most of this subzone will remain in a similar climate envelope under the least change scenario, portions will be warmer and some hotter unlike any climates present on the coast today. Under the greater change scenario almost equal areas fall within the same, warmer and hotter climates.

Footnotes6 restricted to nutrient-very-poor sites7 restricted to nutrient-medium sites

35 risk of weevil damageb limited in productivity, reliability and/or feasibility

MESIC SITES

HAD-A1F1 2050

CWHvh Regeneration Vulnerabilities & Opportunities

Added Comments:• Coast redwood – not clear if it would be suited – think it likely won’t be an

option. This would be a last resort – no species that are cutting it.• Perhaps should do some trials here just to see in case we can use it.• Perhaps Port Orford Cedar – planted in 58 – EP 571 in Uclulet.

• No major changes on regen side – same species that we use right now.• Pw – probably too wet – foliar problems.• Ba – possibly on warmer slopes - but may have problems with aphid – need

to look into it a bit more?• May want to mix in more stands with higher densities – more species options

moving forward.• Yc – right now is hanging in but not very vigorous. May be useful to mix into

species trials.

Mesic Sites

Ba Bg Bl Bp Cw Fd Hm Hw Lw Pl Pw Py Se Ss Sx Yc Act Dr Ep Mb Qg Ra

Present CWHvh1 (ha) 71,069 7 6 7, 35 b b

CWHvh1 94 7 6 7,35 b b

CWHvh1 39 7 6 7,35 b b

CWHvh1- warm 26

CWHvh hot 30Green Primary Footnotes in cells - see listYellow Secondary Orange Tertiary Novel climate envelope - suggested species

Preliminary Sensitivity InterpretationCWHvh1 most of this subzone will remain in a similar climate envelope under the least change scenario, portions will be warmer and some hotter unlike any climates present on the coast today. Under the greater change scenario almost equal areas fall within the same, warmer and hotter climates.

Footnotes6 restricted to nutrient-very-poor sites7 restricted to nutrient-medium sites35 risk of weevil damageb limited in productivity, reliability and/or feasibility

CWHvh Regeneration Vulnerabilities & Opportunities

Added Comments:• Ss – Weevil concerns – increasing hazard (although new weevil-resistant

phenotypes show lots of promise). – so may be an option and may grow well.

• 2080 discussion – likely trends in 2050 will continue.• Bogs to lakes – frogs to fish

Mesic Sites

Ba Bg Bl Bp Cw Fd Hm Hw Lw Pl Pw Py Se Ss Sx Yc Act Dr Ep Mb Qg Ra

Present CWHvh1 (ha) 71,069 7 6 7, 35 b b

CWHvh1 94 7 6 7,35 b b

CWHvh1 39 7 6 7,35 b b

CWHvh1- warm 26

CWHvh hot 30Green Primary Footnotes in cells - see listYellow Secondary Orange Tertiary Novel climate envelope - suggested species

Preliminary Sensitivity InterpretationCWHvh1 most of this subzone will remain in a similar climate envelope under the least change scenario, portions will be warmer and some hotter unlike any climates present on the coast today. Under the greater change scenario almost equal areas fall within the same, warmer and hotter climates.

Footnotes6 restricted to nutrient-very-poor sites7 restricted to nutrient-medium sites35 risk of weevil damageb limited in productivity, reliability and/or feasibility

PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE

CWHvh – Calvin Ck, Nootka Is. – PCM-B1 2080

CWHvm1

CWHvh

-war

m

CWHvm1CWHdm

CWHvh-hotCW

Hvh-w

arm

CWHvh-hot

Dominant Subzone Climate

% of the CWHvh

CWHvh1 78%

CWHvh-warm 15%

PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE

CWHvh – Calvin Ck, Nootka Is. – HAD-A1F1 2080

CWHvm

-war

m

CWHvh-hotCW

Hvh-h

ot

CWHvh-hot

CWHvm-hot

CWHvm

1

CW

Hvm

-hot

Dominant Subzone Climate

% of the CWHvh

CWHvh-hot 85%

CWHvh1/vh(+) / vh-warm

27%

PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE

CWHvh – Calvin Ck, Nootka Is. – HAD-A1F1 2080

mean annual temperature 8.5 11.6 3.1 mean warmest month temperature 14.7 18.0 3.3 mean coldest month temperature 3.3 6.0 2.7 extreme minimum temperature (13.7) (8.6) 5.1 Continentality (MWMT - MCMT) 11.4 11.9 4.7%frost free period 203.0 350.1 72.5%number of frost free days 310.6 355.5 14.4%degree-days above 18 degrees C 12.9 84.9 72.0degree-days below 0 degrees C 24.0 1.0 -23.0mean annual precipitation 3,659.9 4,242.4 15.9%mean annual summer precipitation 773.7 681.7 -11.9%precipitation as snow 172.5 68.0 -60.6%Summer heat:moisture index 19.2 26.7 38.5%Annual heat:moisture index 5.1 5.1 0.6%

ANNUAL CLIMATE VARIABLES Now 2080 change

Dominant Subzone Climate

% of the CWHvh

CWHvh-hot 85%

CWHvh1/vh(+) / vh-warm

27%