sfv regional housing needs and realities: the setting
DESCRIPTION
SFV REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS AND REALITIES: The Setting. Daniel Blake, Director San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center. California State University Northridge. Current Conditions. The Valley’s Population was 1,816,000 on Jan 1, 2005. The Valley has about 600,000 Occupied Housing Units. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
SFV REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS AND REALITIES:
The Setting
Daniel Blake, DirectorSan Fernando Valley Economic Research Center
California State University
Northridge
SFV Economic Research Center CSU Northridge
Current Conditions
• The Valley’s Population was 1,816,000 on Jan 1, 2005.
• The Valley has about 600,000 Occupied Housing Units.
• Persons per Household averages just over 3 pph.
SFV Economic Research Center CSU Northridge
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
An
nu
al C
ha
ng
eSFV Annual Population Change
+19,000/yr
SFV Economic Research Center CSU Northridge
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forecast
Births
Deaths
SFV Births and Deaths
Natural Increase: 14,000/year
SFV Economic Research Center CSU Northridge
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
SFV Net In-Migration
5,000+/yr
SFV Economic Research Center CSU Northridge
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
Multiple Family
Single Family
SFV Multiple and Single Family Permits
Special projects in NH and WH
5,739 units
~4,000/yr
SFV Economic Research Center CSU NorthridgeSFV Economic Research Center
CSU Northridge
SFV New Residential Units Permitted 2000-2004: The Last Five Years
SFV Economic Research Center CSU Northridge
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
$600,000
$650,000
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
SFV Median Home Prices
Previous Peak 1990: $240
1997 Trough: $160
1/3 Loss in 7 Years
Current: $600 Appreciation:
140% in 15 years
275% in 7 years
SFV Economic Research Center CSU Northridge
8.0%Single Family
42.5%Multiple Family
40.8%Single Family
RenterOccupied(50.5 %)
OwnerOccupied (49.5 %)
8.7%Multiple Family
SFV Owner versus Renter Occupied Units, 2005
Condominiums
The Other Half
SFV Economic Research Center CSU Northridge
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
SFV Average Rent $894 $934 $987 $1,083 $1,148 $1,189 $1,249 $1,301 $1,363
% Change in Rent 3.2% 4.5% 5.7% 9.7% 6.0% 3.6% 5.0% 4.2% 4.8%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005e
SFV Average Rent in Large Complexes
SFV Economic Research Center CSU Northridge
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
$1,500
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005e
San Fernando Valley Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos
Rent Trends: SFV vs. Nearby MSAs
SFV rents bunched with those in LA and Ventura County
Riverside, San Brdo, & Ontario
SFV Economic Research Center CSU Northridge
SUMMARY
• Approximately 19,000 new residents/year• Approximately 4,000 new units/year• Marginal person per household: ~5 pph• 2000 population: 1,698,135• 2000 pop. density 5,868 persons/sq. mi.• 2005 population: 1,816,000• 2005 pop. density: 6,275 persons/sq. mi.• 2000-05 density change: 407 persons/sq. mi.• Housing and Infrastructure Support?