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1 Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate 5 th World Congress on Global Warming and the Future of Mountain Tourism Encamp, Andorra March 27-29 2008

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Page 1: Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate · 2019-09-17 · Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate 5th World Congress on Global Warming and the Future of Mountain Tourism

1

Shardul Agrawala

OECD Environment Directorate

5th World Congress on Global Warming

and the Future of Mountain Tourism

Encamp, Andorra

March 27-29 2008

Page 2: Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate · 2019-09-17 · Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate 5th World Congress on Global Warming and the Future of Mountain Tourism

2

The European Alps

Source: National Geographic

Page 3: Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate · 2019-09-17 · Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate 5th World Congress on Global Warming and the Future of Mountain Tourism

3

Alps: Key Aspects

Population 15 million, plus 80 million tourists/year

Water Tower of Europe (Rhine, Rhone, Po)

Biodiversity hotspot (30 000 animal and 13 000

plant species)

Cross-roads of Europe (located in between two of

the most densely populated regions in Europe)

(Usable) Space is Very Limited …Population growth,

tourism, transport, and intense competition among

various land-uses already impose significant

pressures on the environment

Page 4: Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate · 2019-09-17 · Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate 5th World Congress on Global Warming and the Future of Mountain Tourism

4

Climate and Climatic change in the Alps

Alps are at the crossroads of four climatic influences: Atlantic maritime (west); Mediterranean (south); Polar (north); and Continental (east)

There is considerable spatial variation in Alpine climate

Eastern Alps much colder (and the Mediterranean fringe much warmer) at comparable altitudes relative to Western Alps

Changing climate : 1994, 2000, 2002, and 2003 have been the warmest in the past 500 years. Recent warming three times the global average. Climate change scenarios project continued increase on temperatures, increase in intensity of winter precipitation, decline in summer precipitation.

Page 5: Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate · 2019-09-17 · Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate 5th World Congress on Global Warming and the Future of Mountain Tourism

5

Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerabilities

Key impacts: Reduction in snow cover

Glacier and permafrost retreat

Trends towards extreme precipitation

Shifts in natural hazards distributions

Key vulnerabilities: Winter tourism

Exposure to natural hazards

Key Questions: Can impacts be quantified over space and time ?

What is being done to adapt ? And with what consequences?

Is there any role for public policy ?

Page 6: Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate · 2019-09-17 · Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate 5th World Congress on Global Warming and the Future of Mountain Tourism

6

Quantifying the impacts on winter tourism

Data collection of close to 700 ski areas in France,

Switzerland, Austria, Germany, Italy [666 medium to large ski

areas were eventually included in the analysis]

A ski area is snow reliable, if the upper half of its altitudinal

range has adequate snow-depth for ski operations for 100 days

per season (100-days rule).

Page 7: Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate · 2019-09-17 · Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate 5th World Congress on Global Warming and the Future of Mountain Tourism

7

Quantifying the impacts on winter tourism

The “100-days” Rule

For economic viability it has been shown that Alpine ski areas

should have “adequate snow depth” for at least 100-days/season

Currently, for much of Switzerland, 100-days of 30cm snow

depth have been shown to occur at altitudes of about 1200m

This altitude of natural snow reliability is lower for colder regions

(e.g. eastern Alps), and higher for warmer regions (e.g. the

Mediterranean fringe)

These altitudes for natural snow reliability will climb for all

regions, will climb for all regions.

Page 8: Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate · 2019-09-17 · Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate 5th World Congress on Global Warming and the Future of Mountain Tourism

8

Quantifying the impacts on winter tourism

Altitude of

natural snow

reliability line

France Switzerland Austria Italy Germany

1050m

Salzburg

Steiermark/Styria

Oberösterreich/Up

per Austria

Niederösterreich/L

ower Austria

Oberbayern

/ Upper

Bavaria

1200m

Isère

Savoie

Haute Savoie

Alpes Vaudoises

and Fribourgeoises

Valais/Wallis

Bernese Oberland

Central Switzerland

Eastern Switzerland

Grisons

Vorarlberg

Tyrol

Kärnten/Carinthia (assuming that the

‘positive’ effect of

continentality is offset by

the ‘negative’ effect of the

southern latitude)

Schwaben/

Swabia

1500m

Drôme

Hautes Alpes

Alpes de Haute

Provence

Alpes Maritimes

Ticino Piemonte

Lombardia

Alto Adige/ South

Tyrol

Friuli/

Venezia/Giulia

Trentino

Regional variation in altitude of snow reliability

Variation with temperature: The snowline and altitude for snow

reliability has been shown increase by 150m / 1 °C rise in temperature.

Page 9: Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate · 2019-09-17 · Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate 5th World Congress on Global Warming and the Future of Mountain Tourism

9

(Normalised) Sensitivity of Winter Tourism to Climate Change

Page 10: Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate · 2019-09-17 · Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate 5th World Congress on Global Warming and the Future of Mountain Tourism

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Sensitivity of Winter Tourism to Climate Change

Page 11: Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate · 2019-09-17 · Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate 5th World Congress on Global Warming and the Future of Mountain Tourism

11

Italy

Austria

France

Germany

Sensitivity of Winter Tourism to Climate Change

Page 12: Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate · 2019-09-17 · Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate 5th World Congress on Global Warming and the Future of Mountain Tourism

12

Technical Adaptations I

Landscaping and Slope Development

Contouring/Smoothing of smaller areas

Landscaping/Bulldozing of wider areas

Goal: Facilitate the use of grooming equipment for ski run preparation,

reduce the snow depth required for skiing (also cost saving strategy for

snowmaking)

Limitations: Impact on vegetation/landscape, environmental regulations

Page 13: Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate · 2019-09-17 · Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate 5th World Congress on Global Warming and the Future of Mountain Tourism

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Technical Adaptations II

Going Higher and Facing North

Developing north facing slopes

Moving operation to upper part of existing ski area

Extending existing ski area to higher elevations

Building new ski areas at higher elevations

Goal: Concentrate ski operation in climatically

advantaged locations

Limitations: Topography, investment costs, environmental regulations,

climate (avalanches, heavy winds)

Page 14: Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate · 2019-09-17 · Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate 5th World Congress on Global Warming and the Future of Mountain Tourism

14

Technical Adaptations III

Artificial Snowmaking

Area covered by snowmaking: Austria: 50%,

French Alps: 15.5%

Bavaria: 11.5%, Italy: 40%, Swiss Alps: 18%

Growth of Snowmaking in France

Number of ski stations with snowmaking equipment

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

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160

180

200

1979

/80

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/81

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/82

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/84

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/00

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/02

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/03

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/04

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/05

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1979

/80

1980

/81

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/82

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/00

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/02

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/03

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/04

2004

/05

Are

a (

ha)

0

50

100

150

200

250

Insta

lled

Po

wer

(Meg

aw

att

s)

Total pow er installed (MW) Area covered w ith artif icial snow

Page 15: Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate · 2019-09-17 · Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate 5th World Congress on Global Warming and the Future of Mountain Tourism

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Environmental Externalities – water and energy consumption.

[4000 cubic metres required per hectare of ski run… issues of water

withdrawal, storage]. Also issues of noise pollution.

Non-linear Costs: Energy costs for snow making will increase

non-linearly with rising temperatures

Biophysical limits: Snowmaking still requires ambient

temperatures to be typically below -2 ºC. Additives could raise this

limit to 0 ºC, but the use of additives raises other concerns.

Aesthetics and Consumer Choice: Even if snowmaking is

technically feasible, would consumers really want to ski on a narrow

white carpet ?

Is Snow-making the panacea to rising temperatures ?

Page 16: Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate · 2019-09-17 · Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate 5th World Congress on Global Warming and the Future of Mountain Tourism

16

Photo courtesy of Bruno Abegg

Page 17: Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate · 2019-09-17 · Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate 5th World Congress on Global Warming and the Future of Mountain Tourism

17

Other Adaptations

Active Glacier Protection

From skis to spas

Financial instruments (insurance, weather derivatives..)

All year tourism

Page 18: Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate · 2019-09-17 · Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate 5th World Congress on Global Warming and the Future of Mountain Tourism

18

Role for public policy

Oversight of market forces

Manage environmental and social externalities created by

adaptation measures (e.g. snow-making impact on water

and energy)

Facilitate transition and avoid maladaptation

Avoid efforts and policies supporting the status-quo;

Develop transitional policies to help the tourism sector adjust

to a new climate.

Page 19: Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate · 2019-09-17 · Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate 5th World Congress on Global Warming and the Future of Mountain Tourism

19

Some Concluding Remarks

Rising temperatures will lead to a significant concentration of the Alpine ski industry.

These changes need to be viewed in conjunction with other trends, particularly the consolidation of the ski industry and the aging of the European population.

Significant autonomous adaptation is already taking place – however, not all areas can adapt equally, and many adaptations face significant biophysical and economic limits as temperatures continue to increase.

More coherent public policies are needed to oversee the environmental and social externalities created by adaptation measures

The tourism industry, governments, and civil society also need to collectively focus more on how to facilitate sustainable transition and avoid maladaptation

Avoid efforts and policies supporting the status-quo;

Develop transitional policies to help the tourism sector adjust to a new climate.