share of home sales 2014 investment and vacation home buyers survey
TRANSCRIPT
Share of Home Sales
Primary Residence
Buyers, 67%
Investor Buyers, 20%
Vacation Home Buyers,
13%
2014 Investment and Vacation Home Buyers Survey
Consumer and REALTOR® Confidence
Buyers’ View of Homes
All Buyers
Married
coupleSingle female
Single
maleUnmarried couple
Good financial investment 79%79%
78%
81% 83%
2014 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
Pent Up Demand2000 2013
Existing Home Sales
5.2 m 5.1 m
Population 282 m 316 m
Online Agent Recommendations
2014 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
Call Them Back!Number of Agents Buyer Interviewed Before Picking
Agent Used
2014 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
Consumer Satisfaction
•Process:–89% of buyers are satisfied with the buying process
–88% of sellers are satisfied with the selling process
2014 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
Consumer Satisfaction• With the agent:
– 88% of buyers would use agent or recommend to others•Since buying typically have recommended 3+ times - 28%
– 83% of sellers would use agent again or recommend to others•Since selling typically have recommended 3+times—28%
2014 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
Real Estate Trends and
2015 OutlookLawrence Yun, Ph.D.
Chief EconomistNATIONAL ASSOCIATION of
REALTORS®
Presentation at NAR Annual Residential Forum
New Orleans, LA
Expectations of Firm Profitability(over the next 12-months)
Existing + New Home Sales
Single Family Housing Starts … ½ the Normal
Thousand units
Multifamily Housing Starts … Back to Normal
Thousand units
Nationwide Home Price Recovery(Almost Doubled over 20 years)
FHFA Home Price Index
Household Net Worth($5,500 vs. $195,500)
Source: Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances
Renter Households from 2010(Increased by 4 million)
In thousands
Homeownership Rate
First-time Buyer Share (Less than 30% of All Buyers for 18 months)
Among only primary owner-occupants (excluding investors) = 33% in 2014 … Lowest since 1987
30-year Mortgage Rates
Where Are Young People Hiding?
• 57 million Americans or 18.1% of the population live in a multi-generational family household in 2012,
– double the number who lived in such households in 1980
• Of those who are 25-34:
– 20% of the unemployed live with parents
– 12% of employed live with parents
Pew Research, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
failure to launch
Pew Research, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Student Loan(in $billion)
Desire of Gen Y to Buy a Home?• 75% believe home ownership is an important
long-term goal
• 73% believe ownership is an excellent investment
• 59% of young renters (18 to 39) believe owning a home makes more sense
• 73% of young renters also believe it would be difficult to get a mortgage today
• Many young people think 20 percent down payment is needed !
Fannie Mae, 2013 Demand Institute Housing and Community Survey
Non-worrisome CPI Inflation – YetCOLA of 1.7% in 2015
Rising Renters’ and Homeowners’ Rent Growth
(Above 3%)
Inventory of Homes for Sale
Shrinking Shadow Inventory(but not in CT, NY, NJ)
Distressed Property Sales(% of total sales)
Household Net Worth at All-Time High
Sales to International Buyers IncreasedBoth in Terms of Transactions and Price
Median Expected Price Change of REALTORS® in Next 12 Months, By State
Based on July 2014-September 2014 RCI Surveys
July 2014-September 2014 RCI Surveys
Housing Forecast
2013 2014Likely
2015Forecast
2016 Forecast
Housing Starts 925,000 1.0 million 1.3 million 1.4 million
New Home Sales
430,000 440,000 620,000 700,000
Existing Home Sales
5.1 million 4.9 million 5.3 million 5.4 million
Median Price Growth
+ 11.5% + 5.3% + 4% + 4%
30-year Rate 4.0% 4.2% 4.9% 6.0%
Underwriting Standards
Strict Strict Transition Normal
Fayetteville Regional Association of REALTORS®
2412 Raeford Road
1-910-323-1421
www.FayettevilleNCRealtors.com