SHARE WP 3SHARE WP 3

Task 3.3Task 3.3European crustal strain-ratesEuropean crustal strain-ratesINGV, NORSARINGV, NORSAR

Salvatore BarbaSalvatore BarbaIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, RomeIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome

Task 3.3 European crustal strain-ratesTask 3.3 European crustal strain-rates

Deliverables:Deliverables:D3.5.D3.5. Reference strain rate models for the Euro-Mediterranean region Reference strain rate models for the Euro-Mediterranean region(INGV, Month 24)(INGV, Month 24)

Comments: Comments: - - Results from national efforts already availableResults from national efforts already available- A robust alternative to observed slip rates (almost non-existent - A robust alternative to observed slip rates (almost non-existent throughout most of central and northern Europe) throughout most of central and northern Europe)

Problems:Problems:- - Will not be able to resolve the entire study areaWill not be able to resolve the entire study area- Procedure is not standardized- Procedure is not standardized

NEW!NEW!- Kinematic models will benefit areas with sufficient GPS data- Kinematic models will benefit areas with sufficient GPS data

Model propertiesModel properties•Thickness of Moho and LithosphereThickness of Moho and Lithosphere•Average DensitiesAverage Densities•Heath flowHeath flow

Calibration datasetsCalibration datasets•GPS velocitiesGPS velocities•Strain axes Strain axes •Fault kinematicsFault kinematics

Blind testsBlind tests•Slip ratesSlip rates•Earthquake ratesEarthquake rates

OutputOutput•Slip and strain ratesSlip and strain rates•Earthquake ratesEarthquake rates

DataData

MonthsMonths 22 44 66 88 1010 1212 1414 1616 1818

Update literature searchUpdate literature search XX XX

Talk to partnersTalk to partners XX XX XX XX

Data CollectionData Collection XX XX XX

Build modelsBuild models XX XX XX XX

Run ModelsRun Models XX XX XX XX

ChecksChecks XX XX

Time planTime plan

Composite Source (CS)Composite Source (CS)

Unsegmented (no rupture ends identified/predicted)Unsegmented (no rupture ends identified/predicted) No assumption on recurrence modelNo assumption on recurrence model

Slip rates from Finite Element Modeling: ItalySlip rates from Finite Element Modeling: Italy

BarbaBarba [INGV-DPC Report, 2007] [INGV-DPC Report, 2007] Barba et al.Barba et al. [GRL, 2008] [GRL, 2008]

Slip rates and strains from GPS: Germany & S. ScandinaviaSlip rates and strains from GPS: Germany & S. Scandinavia

Kaiser et al.Kaiser et al. [2005] based on GPS data [2005] based on GPS data

Slip rates and strains from thin shell modeling: Alboran SeaSlip rates and strains from thin shell modeling: Alboran Sea

Jimenez-Munt et al.Jimenez-Munt et al. [2001] [2001]

Slip rates from thin shell modeling: Ibero-MaghrebSlip rates from thin shell modeling: Ibero-Maghreb

Negredo et al.Negredo et al. [2002] [2002]

Crustal velocities from thin shell modeling: Aegean SeaCrustal velocities from thin shell modeling: Aegean Sea

Bird Bird [2003][2003]

Available crustal strain rate modelsAvailable crustal strain rate models

Italy & Central Med.Barba et al., 2008

Ibero-Maghreb regionNegredo et al., 2002

Alboran SeaJimenez-Munt et al., 2001

Aegean SeaBird, 2003

Germany & S. ScandinaviaKaiser et al., 2005

Based on: Seismogenic Areas and 2/3 average slip rates from DISS 3.0.2Based on: Seismogenic Areas and 2/3 average slip rates from DISS 3.0.2

Time-independent probabilities (100 years)Time-independent probabilities (100 years)Steven Ward, UC Santa CruzSteven Ward, UC Santa Cruz

Time-independent probabilities (100 years)Time-independent probabilities (100 years)Steven Ward, UC Santa CruzSteven Ward, UC Santa Cruz

Based on: Seismogenic Areas from DISS 3.0.2, slip rates from FEMBased on: Seismogenic Areas from DISS 3.0.2, slip rates from FEM

Time-dependent probabilities (30 years, Polya trees)Time-dependent probabilities (30 years, Polya trees)Renata Rotondi, CNR, MilanRenata Rotondi, CNR, Milan

Based on: Seismogenic Areas from DISS 3.0.2, CPTI04, macroregionsBased on: Seismogenic Areas from DISS 3.0.2, CPTI04, macroregions