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Shattered records show climate change is

an emergency today, scientists warnUnprecedented temperature levels mean more heatwaves, flooding, wildfires and

hurricanes as experts say global warming is here and affecting us now

Damian Carrington

Friday 17 June 2016 16.23

BST

May was the 13th month in a row to break temperature records according to !gurespublished this week that are the latest in 2016s string of incredible climate recordswhich scientists have described as a bombshell and an emergency.

The series of smashed global records, particularly the extraordinary heat in February andMarch, has provoked a stunned reaction from climate scientists, who are warning thatclimate change has reached unprecedented levels and is no longer only a threat for thefuture.

Alongside the soaring temperatures, other records have tumbled around the world, fromvanishing Arctic sea ice to a searing drought in India and the vast bleaching of the GreatBarrier Reef. The UK has experienced record "ooding that has devastated communities

across the country and scientists predict that the "ash "oods seen by parts of thecountry in recent days will increase in future.

The impacts of human-caused climate change are no longer subtle they are playingout, in real time, before us, says Prof Michael Mann, at Penn State University in the US.They serve as a constant reminder now of how critical it is that we engage in the actionsnecessary to avert ever-more dangerous and potentially irreversible warming of theplanet.

It was just last December when the worlds nations sealed a deal in Paris to defeat global

warming but Prof Stefan Rahmstorf, at the Potsdam Institute for Climate ImpactResearch in Germany, says: These [records] are very worrying signs and I think it showswe are on a crash course with the Paris targets unless we change course very, very fast. Ihope people realise that global warming is not something down the road, but it is herenow and it a#ecting us now.

What is happening right now is we are catapulting ourselves out of the Holocene, whichis the geological epoch that human civilisation has been able to develop in, because ofthe relatively stable climate, says Rahmstorf. It allowed us to invent agriculture, ratherthan living as nomads. It allowed a big population growth, it allowed the foundation of

cities, all of which required a stable climate.

But the spikes in global surface temperatures in recent months have been anything butstable. They did not just break the records, they obliterated them. The numbers are

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completely unprecedented, says Adam Scaife, at the Met O%ce in the UK. They reallystick out like a sore thumb.

The scorching temperatures mean 2016 is all but certain to be the hottest year everrecorded, beating the previous hottest year in 2015, which itself beat 2014. This run ofthree record years is also unprecedented and, without climate change, would be a one ina million chance. Scaife says: Including this year so far, 16 of the 17 warmest years on

record have been since 2000 its a shocking statistic.

Thermometer records go back to 1880, but ice cores, tree rings and corals show globalwarming driven by humanitys burning of fossil fuels and forests has left the planet at itshottest for at least 5,000 years. If we are not above this [temperature] already, we willbe in 10 or 20 years time and then you have to go back 120,000 years to!nd highertemperatures than present, says Rahmstorf.

Another shattered record is the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which is oncourse to rise by a record amount this year, leaving the symbolic landmark of 400 parts

per million to history. We know from Antarctic ice cores that go back almost a millionyears that CO2 was never even remotely as high as this, says Rahmstorf, and the rate atwhich humanity is emitting CO2 is the fastest for 66m years.

Fast-rising CO2 levels are almost entirely the reason for the record-busting year. But thenatural climate phenomenon called El Nio has played a part. Cyclical changes in oceantemperatures over decades lead to El Nios during which stored heat is released fromthe oceans, impacting temperatures and weather around the globe.

Scientists agree about a !fth of the temperature rise seen in recent months is due to El

Nio. However Scaife says: I suspect some of the months would have still been records,even without the El Nio. He points out that 1998 saw an ever bigger El Nio, resultingin a record hot year, but that this has now been far surpassed: It is not even in therunning anymore, falling way down the list.

El Nio is now waning into to its opposite phase, called La Nia. But that does not allaythe scientists climate concerns: The La Nia will not be as cool as the El Nio waswarm. We are very, very sure of that, says Scaife. It probably means that 2017 will notbe a record year, but compared to other La Nia years, it is likely to be much warmerthan normal.

Furthermore, there may be more to the record-breaking series than meets the eye.There is something more going on than the usual global warming trend and El Nio,because in the past El Nio has led to single years breaking records, but it has not causedseveral years in a row to break records, says Rahmstorf.

There is some unexplained part to this and it is concerning, because we dontunderstand it and it is hotter than expected, he says. I hope the data coming in thenext six months or so will bring us some important clues.

The heat so far has already had major impacts, including a record temperature of 51C in

India amid a serious drought and a record warm autumn in Australia, as well as many inthe US. It is in my view highly unlikely that we would be seeing record drought, likewere seeing in California, record "ooding in Texas, unprecedented wild!res in western


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North America, and the strongest recorded hurricanes in both the northern and southernhemisphere were it not for the impact of human-caused global warming, says Mann.

Killer heatwaves are increasing too, which is the clearest impact of global warming, saysRahmstorf: Our analysis of monthly heat records around the globe shows they nowoccur !ve times as often. It is those monthly heat records that are representative ofheatwaves that last for weeks on end and they are ones that take the highest death toll.

The UK has been a#ected too, with December breaking temperature and rainfall records.

Climate change means more intense rainfall and therefore an increased risk of"ooding, says Bob Ward, policy director at the London School of Economics GranthamResearch Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.

The government, which got caught out by two record wet winters in the last three, hassuddenly woken up to the fact, which is why they have set up the National FloodResilience Review. It is now something we are all going to have to come to terms with in

the UK.

Ward says seeing the records broken may mean more people make the connectionbetween action on to cut emissions, such as support for green energy, and the impacts ofglobal warming. He says the global climate deal agreed in December shows everygovernment already knows this is a problem that needs urgent action, but that the hightemperatures already occurring will increase the emphasis on adapting to extremeweather events in addition to cutting carbon emissions.

The impacts were beginning to see are just the start and we know we are going to befacing a worsening situation for at least the next couple of decades even if we do cutemissions, Ward says.

Whats worrying [about the record-breaking 2016] is that we are in unprecedentedterritory and we dont really know what the consequences will be, he says. There arelikely to be plenty of surprises, some of which will be nasty.

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