shayne heffernan, nyse:gs, nyse:fcx, nyse:cvx, s&p 500

The Heffernan Report

24th January 2011

Trading Outlook

Last week we saw a much needed slowdown around the World. Many markets are now near multi year highs and investor sentiment has seen its strongest test of the rally and the rally still seems to have some legs.

“Investors are tough this earnings season, good results are not getting much attention, average results are being punished.” Shayne Heffernan said today. With market sentiment so fickle it is not a surprise that the S&P 500 just ended its first down week in eight after some very average news from Goldman Sachs and Freeport McMoRan helped the index lower. This week energy giants like Chevron Corp and ConocoPhillips will be reporting and once again expectations are running high, providing plenty of room for disappointment, this is a week to buy the downtrodden. S&P 500 analysts’ earnings estimates for the current quarter were revised up 1.16% cent over the last 90 days, according to data from Heffernan Capital Management www.heffcap.com. Earnings estimates in the materials sector were raised 5.7%; in energy, they rose 4.8%, and in technology, 2.3%. These sectors led the falls last week, and may well lead the way early this week making them the best buys on Wall St. The S&P index of materials shares lost 3.3 per cent over the week. Global Markets will also look to Wednesday afternoon from the Federal Open Market Committee, which Heffernan Capital Management believe may declare that there are signs of improvement in the U.S. economy, most importantly with consumers and factories.

Other Economic data this week include consumer confidence, durable goods orders, January consumer sentiment, and fourth-quarter USA gross domestic product.

Trading in February February has proven to be historically weak in terms of Wall St and that may keep markets around the world fairly flat. Should the market drift on bad earnings in February it could fall as much as 7% according to HCM’s Shayne Heffernan, the upside is somewhat limited, this is a month to be buying quality on the dips. The bottom of the S&P 500 estimates appears to be around 1,227 at this point our technical analysts see as strong support for the market, anything under 1239 would be an ideal entry point on dividend and other large caps. For now 1,240 would be the most probable stop for the benchmark, said Shayne Heffernan. That coincides with the current 50-day moving average and the 23.6% retracement of the rally from Sept. 1 to the recent high on Jan. 18.

Heffernan Capital Management remains bullish on the Index regardless of the first weekly drop in eight weeks. Shayne Heffernan says the S&P could reach 1,327 by the middle of March before seeing another sell off. Remember when you are trading this week that February is on the horizon, February is historically the second weakest month of the year for the S&P 500, with the index down 0.2 per cent on average for that month since 1950.

In Asia in February

Three words sum up my Asian outlook this week, buy, buy, buy. Singapore, Thailand, Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta all look over sold this week.

Singapore will get a lift from strong performance in agriculture, shipping and financial services.

Singapore is also rolling out new services in 2011 and is attracting World Class IPO’s like Hutchinson Whampoa.

Best Buys On Wall St

Seadrill Limited (NYSE:SDRL)

Price/Share*: $32.83 Annual Dividend: $2.60 Dividend Yield: 7.92%

Pay Date: 12/30 Ex-Dividend Date: 12/16 Record Date: 12/20

Seadrill Limited Ordinary Shares (Bermuda) NYSE:SDRL Strong Buy issued by Shayne Heffernan with a $60 2012 price target. Company has a dividend yield over 7% and is in one of the world’s hot sectors.

Seadrill Limited Ordinary Shares (Bermuda) NYSE:SDRL Seadrill is a leading offshore deepwater drilling company, aiming to be our customers’ most important partner in making oil and gas available in a safe and cost-effective manner.

The company operates a versatile fleet of 56 units that comprises drillships, jack-up rigs, semi-submersible rigs and tender rigs for operations in shallow to ultra-deepwater areas in harsh environment and benign environments.

Special Report SSeeaaddrriillll LLiimmiitteedd OOrrddiinnaarryy SShhaarreess ((BBeerrmmuuddaa)) NNYYSSEE::SSDDRRLL

Date: 12/01/2011

Symbol: SRDL

Exchange: NYSE

Industry: OIL SERVICES

Sector: Oil & Gas

Recommendation:

Target Price: $60.00

Current Price: $33.52

Summary

• Increased Oil and Gas Spending Globally

• Large and Growing Fleet

• Higher Oil and Gas Prices will drive growth

• Strong growth in sales over the last year

• Dividend Yield will attract institutional

investors

• Low PE for the Industry

Fundamental Data

Market Cap ($B): 13.8

Avg.Vol (10Day): 1,400,000

52 Week High/Low: 17.81 - 35.28

P/E ratio: 11.38

Dividend yield (%): 7.25

ROI: 10.77

ROE: 29.24

Profit Margin (%): 3.37

Operating Margin (%): 13.32

Seadrill Limited Ordinary Shares (Bermuda) NYSE:SDRL Seadrill is a leading offshore deepwater drilling company, aiming to be our customers' most important partner in making oil and gas available in a safe and cost-effective manner. The company operates a versatile fleet of 56 units that comprises drillships, jack-up rigs, semi-submersible rigs and tender rigs for operations in shallow to ultra-deepwater areas in harsh environment and benign environments.

It operates three business segments. The Mobile Units business segment offers services including drilling, completion and maintenance of offshore wells.

The Tender Rigs business segment operates self-erecting tender rigs and semi-submersible tender rigs.

The Well Services business segment provides services using platform drilling, facility engineering, modular rig, well intervention and oilfield technologies.

SeaDrill Limited operates through subsidiaries in Bermuda, Norway, Cayman Islands, British Virgin Islands, Cyprus, Nigeria, Liberia, Hungary, Singapore, Brazil, Hong Kong, Panama, the United Kingdom, Denmark, Malaysia, Brunei and the United States.

SeaDrill’s primary objective is to profitably grow our business to increase long-term distributable cash flow per share to shareholders.

SeaDrill’s business strategy is to focus on modern state-of-the-art offshore drilling units with a main focus on deepwater operations. SeaDrill believe they have one of the most modern fleets in the industry and believe that by combining quality assets and experienced and skilled employees they will be able to provide customers with safe and effective operations, and establish, develop and maintain a position as a preferred provider of offshore drilling services for customers.

SeaDrill believe that a combination of quality assets and highly skilled employees will facilitate the procurement of term contracts and premium dayrates. SeaDrill have grown the company significantly from its incorporation in 2005 and have strong ambitions to continue the growth.

SeaDrill believe that the combination of term contracts and quality assets will provide an opportunity to obtain debt financing for such growth, and allow them to increase the return on invested equity.

The key elements in SeaDrill strategy are as follows:

• commitment to provide customers with safe and effective operations; • combine state-of-the-art mobile drilling units with experienced and skilled employees; • growth through targeted alliances, purchase of newbuildings, mergers and acquisitions; • develop strong position in deepwater and harsh environments; • develop strong position in the tender rig market and pursue further growth in

conventional waters as well as deepwater areas; and • offer a diversified range of well services

Consolidation in the offshore drilling rig industry would improve the pricing and earnings visibility for our services. Such consolidation activities may be in the form of transactions for specific offshore drilling units or companies.

SeaDrill actively look for growth opportunities and intend to take part in the future consolidation of the industry if they determine that potential transactions are in the best interest of shareholders.

Dividend policy and history

Seadrill has an objective to generate competitive returns to its shareholders. This objective will be

supported by frequent distribution of cash dividend. The level of dividend will be guided by

earnings expectations, market prospects, current capital expenditure programs as well as

investment opportunities.

Cash dividend per

share Ex dividend date Payable date

US$ NOK

3Q 2010

0.65 3.88 Dec 16, 2010 Dec 30, 2010

2Q 2010 0.61 3.79 Sep 8, 2010 Sep 24, 2010

1Q 2010 0.60 3.86 Jun 15, 2010 Jul 2, 2010

4Q 2009 0.55 3.21 Mar 15, 2010 Mar 26, 2010

3Q 2009 0.50 2.79 Nov 23, 2009 Dec 7, 2009

Extra ord. 0.30 1.68 Sep 22, 2008 Sep 30, 2008

2Q 2008 0.60 3.32 Sep 4, 2008 Sep 16, 2008

1Q 2008 0.60 3.10 Jun 5, 2008 Jun 18, 2008

4Q 2007 0.25 1.29 Mar 5, 2008 Mar 14, 2008

LATEST NEWS

SeaDrill Limited Acquires Two Semi-submersible Ultra-deepwater Rigs

Monday, 3 Jan 2011 02:45am EST

SeaDrill Limited announced that it has entered into an agreement to acquire the two ultra-

deepwater semi-submersible drilling rigs, Seadragon I and Seadragon II. The total project price

for the two rigs, which are currently under construction at the Jurong Shipyard in Singapore, is

estimated to be approximately USD1.2 billion (including project management for the remaining

construction period, drilling and handling tools, spares, operations preparations and capitalized

interest). Deliveries of the two rigs are expected in the first quarter and fourth quarter 2011,

respectively. Seadrill has secured new bank debt to finance the investment. The principal terms

and conditions have been agreed and the debt will have a seven year tenor and a 13 year

repayment profile. The two rigs will serve as security for the new debt. Furthermore, the first rig

to be completed, Seadragon I, has a five year contract in place. The second unit, Seadragon II, has

currently no employment in place.

SeaDrill Limited Enters into Contract for Newbuild Tender Rig

Wednesday, 22 Dec 2010 05:57am EST

SeaDrill Limited announced that it has entered into a conditional agreement with BP Trinidad and

Tobago LLC for a firm two-year contract plus further one year option period for the newbuild

semi-tender West Jaya offshore Trinidad and Tobago. Contract value for the firm period is

approximately USD 140 million including a mobilization fee for the transit. In addition, BP will

compensate Seadrill for minor equipment upgrades related to the assignment. West Jaya is

currently under construction at Keppel Shipyard in Singapore and delivery is scheduled for the

end of March 2011. The unit will subsequently commence transit to Trinidad/Tobago and start-up

on the contract with BP is expected early July 2011.

SeaDrill Limited Receives Contract Extension from Brunei Shell Petroleum

Tuesday, 23 Nov 2010 03:19am EST

SeaDrill Limited announced that the Company has been awarded a new contract extension by

Brunei Shell Petroleum for the semi-tender assist rig West Pelaut. The production drilling

assignment has a firm duration of three years, and the contract value is estimated to

approximately USD 131 million. The new contract is scheduled to start in direct continuation of

the current contract with Shell, at the end of the first quarter 2012.

SeaDrill Limited Orders Two Jack-Ups in China for Delivery in 2012 and 2013

Monday, 15 Nov 2010 08:42am EST

SeaDrill Limited announced that it has entered into an agreement for the construction of two jack-

up drilling rigs with Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Offshore Co., Ltd (DSIC) in China. The new

units are scheduled for delivery in the fourth quarter of 2012 and first quarter of 2013

respectively, and total project cost is estimated at USD 380 million, which include project

management, drilling and handling tools, spares and capitalized interest. In addition, SeaDrill has

option agreements for construction of further two similar units with DSIC. The units are based on

the Friede & Goldman JU2000E design, and are suitable for operations worldwide, including the

southern North Sea. The units have the capability to operate in water depths up to 400 feet and

drill to depths of 30,000 feet.

SeaDrill Limited Orders Ultra-Deepwater Drillships for Delivery in 2013

Thursday, 11 Nov 2010 02:10am EST

SeaDrill Limited announced that it has entered into a turnkey contract to build up to four new

ultra-deepwater drillships at the Samsung yard in South Korea. The first two drillships are firmly

ordered with delivery in the first and second quarter of 2013, respectively. Total project price per

rig is estimated to be less than USD 600 million, which includes a turnkey contract with the yard,

project management, drilling and handling tools, spares, capitalized interest and operations

preparations. The contract further includes a fixed price option for further two drillships to be

declared during the first quarter 2011. The decision to add another two ultra-deepwater newbuilds

to the existing fleet is based on the continued strength of the offshore drilling market, the return

that these investments are expected to deliver and the financial flexibility generated by the

Company's contract backlog.

Chimera Investment (NYSE:CIM)



Chimera Investment Corporation is a specialty finance company that invests, either directly or indirectly through its subsidiaries, in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), residential mortgage loans, real estate-related securities and various other asset classes.

The Company is externally managed by Fixed Income Discount Advisory Company (FIDAC). The Company's targeted asset classes and the principal investments it expects to make includes RMBS comprising agency and non-agency RMBS, residential mortgage loans consisting of prime mortgage loans, jumbo mortgage loans, and Alt-A mortgage loans and other asset backed securities (ABS) consisting of debt and equity tranches of collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) and consumer and non-consumer ABS.

American Capital Agency (NASDAQ:AGNC)



American Capital Agency Corp. (AGNC) is a real estate investment trust (REIT). AGNC earns income primarily from investing in residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations.

These investments consist of securities, for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by United States Government-sponsored entities, such as the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) or by a United States Government agency, such as the Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae). The Company is externally managed by American Capital Agency Management, LLC, a subsidiary of a wholly owned portfolio company of American Capital, Ltd.

Teekay Tankers (NYSE:TNK)



Teekay Tankers Ltd. is engaged in the international marine transportation of crude oil through the operation of its oil tankers.

As of March 1, 2010, its fleet consisted of nine Aframax-class oil tankers and three Suezmax-class oil tankers. As of March 1, 2010, five of these vessels were operating in the spot market through participation in pooling arrangements managed by subsidiaries of Teekay Corporation.

As of March 1, 2010, Teekay Corporation, through its 100%-owned subsidiary Teekay Holdings Ltd., had a 42% interest in the Company. On June 24, 2009, it acquired from Teekay Corporation its subsidiary Ashkini Spirit L.L.C, which owns a Suezmax tanker, the Ashkini Spirit.

Partner Communications (NASDAQ:PTNR)



Partner Communications Company Ltd. (Partner) is a mobile telephone network operator in Israel. The Company’s products and services are marketed under the orange brand. During the year ended December 31, 2009, its global system for mobile communications/universal mobile telecommunications system (GSM/UMTS) network covered over 98% of the Israeli population.

Its GSM services include standard and enhanced GSM services, as well as value-added services and products, such as roaming, voice mail, voice messaging, color picture messaging, ringtone and game downloads, information services, and general packet radio services (GPRS), which enables the packet transfer of data.

Its third generation (3G) network offers a range of services, such as video calls, a new portal of content services, including a rich selection of video-based services under the orange time sub-brand, and the transmission of data.

Vector Group (NYSE:VGR)



Vector Group Ltd. (Vector) is a holding company. The Company is engaged in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes in the United States through its Liggett Group LLC (Liggett) and Vector Tobacco Inc., research relating to reduced risk cigarette products through its Vector Tobacco Inc., and the real estate business through its New Valley LLC, which is seeking to acquire additional operating companies and real estate properties. New Valley owns 50% of Douglas Elliman Realty, LLC, which operates a residential brokerage company in the New York metropolitan area.

Alaska Communications Systems Group (NASDAQ:ALSK)



Alaska Communications Systems Group, Inc. (ACS) provides integrated communications services in Alaska. The Company’s wireline and wireless communications networks extend throughout Alaska and connect to the Lower 48 states via its two diverse undersea fiber optic cable systems.

The Company operates through two business segments: Wireline and Wireless. The Wireline segment provides communications services, including voice, data, broadband, multi-protocol label switching (MPLS) services, network access, long-distance and other services to consumers, carriers, businesses and enterprises, and government customers throughout Alaska and to and from Alaska.

The Wireless segment provides wireless voice and data service and products and other value-added services and equipment sales across Alaska.

Grupo Aeroportuario (NYSE:ASR)



Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S.A.B. de C.V. (ASUR) is a Mexican airport operator with concessions to operate, maintain and develop the airports of Cancun, Cozumel, Huatulco, Merida, Minatitlan, Oaxaca, Tapachula, Veracruz and Villahermosa in the southeast of Mexico.

As operator of these airports, ASUR charges airlines, passengers and other users fees for the use of the airports' facilities. The Company also derives rental and other income from commercial activities conducted at its airports, such as the leasing of space to restaurants and retailers. As of December 31, 2009, Cancun had approximately 29,725 hotel rooms.

During the year ended December 31, 2009, it served approximately 15.5 million passengers. As of December 31, 2009, 15 Mexican and 80 international airlines, including United States-based airlines, such as American Airlines and Continental Airlines, were operating directly or through code-sharing arrangements in its airports.

Pennantpark Investment Corp (NASDAQ:PNNT)



PennantPark Investment Corporation (PennantPark Investment) is a business development company focused to generate both income and capital appreciation through debt and equity investments in the United States middle-market companies in the form of senior secured loans, mezzanine debt and equity investments.

The Company is a closed-end, externally managed, non-diversified investment company. During the fiscal year ended September 30, 2010 (fiscal 2010), it purchased investments issued by 17 new and 12 existing portfolio companies.

During fiscal 2010, its portfolio consisted of 75% fixed-rate, including 26% with a London Interbank Offering (LIBOR), and 25% variable-rate investments.

Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE:NMM)



Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (Navios Partners) is an international owner and operator of drybulk carriers formed by Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. (Navios Holdings), a vertically integrated seaborne shipping company. The Company’s vessels are chartered out under medium to long-term time charters with an average remaining term of approximately 3.9 years.

The Company’s fleet consists of 10 Panamax vessels, one Capesize vessel and one Ultra-Handymax vessel. Its fleet of dry cargo vessels has an average age of approximately seven years. On June 10, 2009, the Company acquired the rights to the Navios Sagittarius, a 2006 Japanese-built Panamax vessel with a capacity of 75,756 dead weight tonnage (dwt). On October 29, 2009, the Company purchased from Navios Holdings, the vessel Navios Apollon, a 52,073 dwt Ultra-Handymax vessel. On January 8, 2010, Navios Partners acquired from Navios Holdings the vessel Navios Hyperion, a 75,707 dwt Panamax vessel.

Best Buys In Asia

Singapore listed commodities companies are set to become the rising stars of the exchange in 2011 and will become global players of significant importance.

Olam International Ltd, Wilmar International Ltd and Noble Group Ltd are most likely to lead the charge as the benefit from home grown markets in ASEAN, China and India, where the world's largest populations are consuming more and more of the world’s food supply.

Cash Flow is on the rise at Noble and Olam, both have successfully made the switch into production from trading, have been expanding ever since.

Olam is the world's largest supplier of cashews and sesame seeds, and is among the biggest sources of cocoa, rice, peanuts and cotton. It operates in 64 countries.

Noble is Asia's biggest supplier of raw materials. Only 22 percent of its revenue comes from agriculture, with the remainder coming from materials such as iron ore.

It has invested heavily in mines and processing.

Wilmar is Asia's leading agribusiness group and the world's largest integrated palm oil company.

Golden Agri-Resources Ltd is the world's second largest palm oil plantation with a total planted area of 435,000 hectares (including small holders) as at 30 September 2010, located in Indonesia. It has integrated operations focused on the production of palm-based edible oil and fat products.

Demand is expected to grow because of demand for biofuels, which is part of the reason the company bought the sugar and renewable energy businesses from Australia's CSR.

Paul Ebeling’s Outlook

The Cost of Clothing, Food, and Energy are on the Rise

Cotton prices are on the upswing and folks are going to feel it in their pockets sooner rather than later.

Cotton is now 80% more expensive than it was at the start of 2010 and many manufacturers believe they have no choice but to pass it on to the consumers.

It is reported that some folks are taking up Thrift Store shopping, hand me down or children’s clothing swapping (as it is called now), and Mothers are sewing again.

The USDA forecasts a 2% to 3% rise in the cost of all foods in Y 2011. Higher Corn and Soybean prices are the main force behind the increase. Farm animals have to be fed and when those costs go up, do the prices at the market. The big spike will be seen in dairy and meat, as Pork alone is forecast to rise between 3% and 4%. In Y 2008 food costs overall rose more than 5.5%.

A trend had taken hold as consumers sign up by the millions on sites that offer grocery coupons, and shop the weekly sales and Manager’s specials in the Super Markets. Meals are being planned, items to be purchased listed, and a new shopping commandment is: thou shalt not buy items on impulse. People that I know are planting vegetable and herb gardens, my friend CS fertilizes his Heirloom tomatoes and fruit trees with bio-Char and gets 3 seasons of wonderful produce. This all in his yard!

Shayne Heffernan and I here at HCM, along with the former President of Shell Oil, John Hofmeister, believe gasoline will be back to US$5 a gallon in the USA in Y 2010, it is almost there now in some locals.

That is US$2 more per gallon than the current average price in the USA of US$3.05 (Regular), according to the US Department of Energy.

The severe weather is partially to blame. The Winter in the USA and in Europe have created a higher-than-usual demand for heating fuels. Add to that the increased demand for fossil fuels in China and India, and the depreciation of the “Greenback” you can see Economics 101 at work first hand at the pump.

Demand determines the price, so use less spend less. Back to the Basic Conservation is the New Rule: Carpool, car share, combine errands, ride a bike, walk. At home, put on a sweater and keep your thermostat set low. Consider solar panels and absolutely seal any cracks or leaks around windows.

Shayne Heffernan’s Outlook

Around the world the consumption of vegetable oils is poised to exceed production for the first time in 17 years, draining inventories of cooking fats such as soy and palm and boosting prices already nearing records set during the 2008 food crisis.

ASEAN companies are the world’s leading suppliers of these oils making them very strong buys.

The United Nations’ World Food oils index surged to a 29-month high in December as vegetable-oil stockpiles fell. Heffernan Capital Management are estimating demand will exceed output this year for the first time since 1994.

Economic growth in China, India and Indonesia, with a combined 40 per cent of the global population, has spurred demand for cooking oils, as spreading wealth prompts the switch from grains to meat and higher spending on flavour-enhancing fats.

Edible oils represented 13 per cent of the calorie intake in developing Asia, according to a 2006 Asian Development Bank study. That was about half the proportion in the US.

India’s opposition plans a month of protests beginning January 20 over food inflation, echoing demonstrations across emerging markets when food prices surged in 2007 and 2008. Back then, three people died in a stampede in Chongqing, China, in November 2007 after a store began offering discounted cooking oil.

China, attempting to slow inflation, ordered four cooking oil suppliers including Wilmar International and COFCO not to lift product prices, the National Business Daily reported last month.

Heffernan Capital Management has upgraded the 2011 growth target for Palm Oil.

So far Palm oil has rallied 36 percent this year, headed for its second straight annual advance, on optimism that rising demand in China may strain global supplies curbed by rain and drought in producing nations.

Heavy rains caused by a La Nina weather event have reduced oil-palm yields in Indonesia and Malaysia, the top producers.

La Nina has also caused drought that curbed South American planting of soybeans, the rival edible oil, threatening global edible oil supplies and driving prices higher.

Malaysia’s production dropped 1 percent to 14.3 million tons in the first 10 months of the year, according to data from the nation’s palm oil board.

February-delivery futures rose as much as 1.3 percent to 3,640 ringgit, a 29-month high, and traded at 3,617 ringgit at 12:13 p.m. on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange.

China, the biggest user of commodities, has pledged to control prices by cracking down on the use of bank credit to speculate in agricultural markets and by selling soybeans and vegetable oil from state reserves.

The biggest buyer of soybeans is expected to import 57 million tons in the year from Oct. 1, up 13 percent from a year ago, the U.S. Department of Agriculture data show.

Imports may exceed 14.2 million tons from October through December, up 4 million tons from a year earlier, Oil World said this week.

Chutinush Taksinapinunt’s Outlook

The world has moved a step closer to a food price shock after the US government surprised traders by cutting stock forecasts for key crops, sending Corn and Soybean prices to their highest level in 30 months.

The price jump comes after the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation warned last week that the world could see repetition of the 2008 food crisis if prices rose further. The trend is becoming a major concern in developing countries.

While officials are drawing comfort from stable rice prices, key for feeding Asia, they warn that a sustained period of high prices, especially in grains such as wheat, would hit poorer countries. Food price hikes have already led to riots in Algeria and Mozambique.

“Stocks of corn and soyabean are at incredibly tight levels, and the markets are surging to incredibly strong prices,” Chad Hart, agricultural economist at Iowa State University, said.

Agricultural traders and analysts warn that the latest revision to US and global stocks means there is no further room for weather problems. The crops in Argentina and Brazil, to be harvested soon, look fragile due to dryness.

Traders are particularly concerned about the cost of vegetable oil, key for developing countries such as China where an emerging middle class is buying more frying oil. The US Department of Agriculture said the ratio of Global stocks-to-demand would fall later this year to “levels unseen since the mid-1970’s, reflecting an accelerated pace of Vegetable Oil” consumption for food and fuel.

In Chicago, the price of soyabeans rose as much as 5.2% to $4.205 a bushel, the highest since late Y 2008. The USDA said that domestic stocks-to-demand would drop to the lowest point in nearly half a century.

Corn price rose 5% to 6.37 a bushel, the highest level since July 2008.

The USDA said that by August the ratio of US Corn stocks-to-demand would fall to a surprisingly thin 5.5%, the smallest cushion in 15 yrs.

The US is the world’s largest corn supplier, meeting more than half of global import needs. Corn is an important ingredient in animal feed, and the tightening market partly reflects stronger appetites for meat in emerging markets. Record ethanol production in the US will also swallow up nearly 40% of the US crop.

The boom in agricultural prices has lifted the outlook of the agribusiness sector in the US. Cargill, the World’s largest trader of food commodities, said its profits had tripled Y-Y during Q-2 of its F-Y.

Issaree Suwunnavid’s Outlook

Food prices hit a record high last month, surpassing the levels seen during the 2007-08 crisis, the UN’s Food and Agricultural Organisation said Wednesday.

The Rome-based organization said the increase did not constitute a crisis. But Abdolreza Abbassian, senior economist at the FAO, acknowledged that the situation was “alarming”. He added: “It will be foolish to assume this is the peak.”

The jump will increase fears about the repetition of the crisis of Y 2007-2008. However, poor countries have not so far seen the wave of food riots that rocked countries such as Haiti and Bangladesh 2 yrs ago, when prices of agricultural commodities jumped.

The increase in food costs will also hit developed economies, with companies from McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) to Kraft (NYSE:KFT) raising retail prices.

Higher food prices are also boosting overall inflation, which is above the preferred targets of central banks in Europe.

The FAO said its food price index, a basket tracking the wholesale cost of commodities such as wheat, corn, rice, oilseeds, dairy products, sugar and meats, jumped last month of 214.7 pts.up almost 4.2% from November.

The FAO food index is at its highest since the measure was 1st calculated in Y 1990. During the Y 2007-08 food crisis, the index reached a peak of 213.5 in June 2008.

Olam International

Olam International is a leading global supply chain manager of agricultural products and food ingredients. We are suppliers to the manufacturers of many of the world's internationally recognised brands, offering them reliability, consistency, trust, traceability and other value added services. This unique "total solutions" that we provide to our customers has earned us a global reputation as the "Brand behind the Brands".

Our distinctive position is based on our integration across the entire physical value chain from farms in the producing countries to the factory

gate in destination markets. As supply chain managers, we manage every stage of the product journey from farming, origination, primary processing and logistics, to secondary processing, marketing, distribution and customer delivery, managing the risks present at each stage. We operate today in over 60 countries, delivering 20 products to more than 11,100 customers. We employ over 10,000 people worldwide. We enjoy a leadership position in many of our businesses, including Cashew, Almond, Spices & Dehydrates, Sesame, Cocoa, Coffee, Rice, Cotton, Teak as well as Palm and Rubber in West Africa.

Listed on 11 February 2005 on the mainboard of the Singapore Exchange (SGX) (SGX: Olam; Bloomberg: OLAM SP; Reuters: OLAM.SI) with a market capitalisation of S$929.0 million, Olam is today a component stock of the Straits Times Index, MSCI Singapore Free Index, S&P Agribusiness Index and DAXglobal Agribusiness Index. Olam is the only Singapore company to be named in the 2009 lists for the Global Top Companies for Leaders and the Top Companies for Leaders in the Asia Pacific region by Hewitt Associates, the RBL Group and Fortune. It is also the only Singapore firm to be named in the 2009 and 2010 Forbes Asia Fabulous 50, an annual list of 50 big-cap and most profitable firms in the region.

HCM Target $8.00

Summary

Change -0.060 (-1.858%)

Bid 3.160 Ask 3.170 Open 3.250 High 3.250 Low 3.150 52-Week Range 3.41 - 2.18 Volume 13,118,000

1-Yr Return 18.845%

Earnings

Earnings

Fundamentals

Earnings 0.179 Shares (Millions) 2,125.806 Price/Earnings (Trailing) 17.238 Market Cap (Millions) 6,738.805 Relative P/E 1.336 ROE 25.514

Last Dividend Reported 0.025 Regular Cash

Dividend Yield (ttm) 1.420

Relative Dividend Yield 0.540

90-Day Volatility 29.634

Beta vs. FSSTI 1.115

Valuation Ratios

Company Industry Sector S&P 500

P/E Ratio (TTM) 19.53 35.50 22.67 18.20

P/E High - Last 5 Yrs. 44.82 6,098.84 1,545.75 49.63

P/E Low - Last 5 Yrs. 17.50 15.71 15.04 12.83

Beta 1.11 0.61 0.57 1.33

Price to Sales (TTM) 0.61 1.62 2.18 2.24

Price to Book (MRQ) 3.57 1.13 1.71 2.93

Price to Tangible Book (MRQ) 4.38 0.95 1.83 7.09

Price to Cash Flow (TTM) 15.25 16.07 14.34 10.90

Price to Free Cash Flow (TTM) -- 15.89 12.45 50.89

% Owned Institutions -- -- -- --

Dividends


Dividend Yield 1.39 1.70 1.81 1.54

Dividend Yield - 5 Year Avg. 1.17 1.50 1.27 2.53

Dividend 5 Year Growth Rate 16.25 7.67 8.81 -8.18

Payout Ratio(TTM) 24.56 44.65 24.68 37.34

Growth Rates


Sales (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 30.24 12.72 8.70 9.40

Sales (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 26.69 10.83 6.80 9.22

Sales - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 25.95 9.87 11.38 9.59

EPS (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 58.20 7.62 21.11 5.85

EPS (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 33.78 -- -- --

EPS - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 24.52 7.06 8.19 7.06

Capital Spending - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 47.73 8.38 9.38 4.62

Financial Strength


Quick Ratio (MRQ) 0.72 1.10 0.76 0.65

Current Ratio (MRQ) 1.47 1.64 1.07 0.96

LT Debt to Equity (MRQ) 114.45 29.04 25.69 122.10

Total Debt to Equity (MRQ) 254.08 41.32 35.30 180.83

Interest Coverage (TTM) -- 0.37 0.60 13.54

Noble Group

Noble Group Limited is an investment holding company. Its subsidiaries, jointly controlled entities and associates comprise managing the global supply chain of agricultural, industrial and energy products; ship ownership, chartering and the provision of technical ship management services; trade finance; coal mining, soybean and sugar cane crushing activities and ethanol production.

It has two segments: Agriculture, which includes grain, coffee, cocoa, cotton, sugar and fertilizer product divisions; Energy, which includes coal and coke, oil and gas (which includes ethanol), petrochemical (which includes polymers), and carbon credits product divisions; metals, minerals and ores, which includes iron ore, ferro alloys/manganese ore/chrome ore, alumina/aluminum and steel products product divisions, and logistics, which comprises vessel chartering, vessel ownership and vessel management. On June 16, 2009, it acquired a further 66% interest in Gloucester Coal Limited.

HCM Target $4.80

Summary

Change -0.020 (-0.855%)


1-Yr Return 11.593%

Earnings

Earnings

Fundamentals


Last Dividend Reported 0.023 Regular Cash





Valuation Ratios


P/E Ratio (TTM) 25.28 13.98 27.04 18.20

P/E High - Last 5 Yrs. 16.94 22.40 68.65 49.63

P/E Low - Last 5 Yrs. 4.09 8.09 14.22 12.83

Beta 1.19 1.25 1.15 1.33


Price to Book (MRQ) 3.36 2.80 1.52 2.93




Dividends


Dividend Yield 2.14 1.49 1.26 1.54


Dividend 5 Year Growth Rate 4.29 19.28 8.84 -8.18

Payout Ratio(TTM) 32.99 13.71 31.51 37.34

Growth Rates





EPS (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 2.51 154.62 176.08 5.85

EPS (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago -39.22 -- -- --

EPS - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 9.65 17.78 10.21 7.06


Wilmar International

Wilmar International Limited, founded in 1991, is Asia’s leading agribusiness group. They are amongst the largest listed companies by market capitalisation on the Singapore Exchange.

The business activities include oil palm cultivation, oilseeds crushing, edible oils refining, consumer pack edible oils processing and merchandising, specialty fats, oleochemicals and biodiesel manufacturing, and grains processing and merchandising. Headquartered in Singapore, operations are located in more than 20 countries across four continents, with a primary focus on Indonesia, Malaysia, China, India and Europe. Supported by a multi-national staff force of more than 80,000 people, over 300 processing plants and an extensive distribution network, Wilmar products are sold to more than 50 countries globally.

Wilmar are today:

• the largest global processor and merchandiser of palm and lauric oils; • one of the largest plantation companies in Indonesia/Malaysia; • the largest palm biodiesel manufacturer in the world; • a leading consumer pack edible oils producer, oilseeds crusher, edible oils refiner,

specialty fats and oleochemicals manufacturer in China; • one of the largest edible oils refiners and a leading producer of consumer pack edible oils

in India; • the largest edible oils refiner in Ukraine; and • the leading importer of edible oils into East Africa and one of the largest importers of

edible oils into South-east Africa.

HCM Target $9.75

Summary

Change -0.040 (-0.701%)


1-Yr Return -19.249%

Earnings

Earnings

Fundamentals


Last Dividend Reported 0.032 Interim





Valuation Ratios


P/E Ratio (TTM) 19.86 35.50 22.67 18.20

P/E High - Last 5 Yrs. 29.22 6,098.84 1,545.75 49.63

P/E Low - Last 5 Yrs. 8.23 15.71 15.04 12.83

Beta 1.27 0.61 0.57 1.33


Price to Book (MRQ) 2.46 1.13 1.71 2.93




% Owned Institutions -- -- -- --

Dividends


Dividend Yield 1.44 1.70 1.81 1.54


Dividend 5 Year Growth Rate -- 7.67 8.81 -8.18

Payout Ratio(TTM) 32.18 44.65 24.68 37.34

Growth Rates





EPS (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago -60.28 7.62 21.11 5.85

EPS (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago -19.22 -- -- --

EPS - 5 Yr. Growth Rate -- 7.06 8.19 7.06


Golden Agri-Resources Ltd

Date: 28/12/2010

Symbol: E5H

Exchange: SGX

Sector: Agriculture

Recommendation:

Target Price: 1.50

Current Price: 0.775

Summary

• Very strong growth in Asia including

China

• Palm Oil Prices are outperforming

expectations

• Increased capacity and distribution

• First nine months 2010 EBITDA

increased by 56% to US$424 million

• Net profit grew by 89% to US$254

million year-on-year

Fundamental Data

Beta: 1.47

Market Cap (Mil.):

$9,711.02

Shares Outstanding (Mil.):

12,138.68

Yield (%): 0.62

PE 10.3

Golden Agri-Resources Ltd is the world's second largest palm oil plantation with a total planted area of 435,000 hectares (including small holders) as at 30 September 2010, located in Indonesia. It has integrated operations focused on the production of palm-based edible oil and fat products.

Founded in 1996, GAR is listed on the Singapore Exchange since 1999 with a market capitalisation of US$5 billion as at 30 September 2010. Flambo International Ltd, an investment company, is GAR’s largest shareholder, with a 49% stake in the company. GAR has several subsidiaries, including PT SMART Tbk (“SMART”) and PT Ivo Mas Tunggal. SMART listed its shares on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 1992. GAR is focused on sustainable palm oil production. Its primary activities include cultivating and harvesting of oil palm trees; processing of fresh fruit bunch into crude palm oil ("CPO") and palm kernel; and refining CPO into value-added products

such as cooking oil, margarine and shortening. Through its subsidiaries, GAR operates 36 palm oil processing mills, four refineries and six kernel crushing plants. It also has an integrated operation in China including a deep sea port, oilseed crushing plants, production capabilities for refined edible oil products as well as other food products such as noodles.

Seedlings: Good quality seeds are crucial for the long-term productivity of our plantations. One of our subsidiaries, PT Ivo Mas Tunggal, has a strategic partnership with Dami Australia Pty Ltd, to produce high yielding seeds originating from Papua New Guinea, through its joint venture company, PT Dami Mas Sejahtera. The production capacity of this company can support our plantation expansion plan. Plantations: We cultivate oil palm plantations with a total area of approximately 435,000 hectares (including plasma) with an annual fresh fruit bunches yield of 23.1 tonnes per hectare in 2009. Our nucleus plantations comprise 79 percent of total hectarage. Extraction: Our mills extract crude palm oil and palm kernel from the fresh fruit bunches, with a combined capacity of 9,270,000 tonnes per annum.

Refining: The crude palm oil is processed in our own refineries, which have a total capacity of 1,380,000 tonnes per annum, producing both value-added and generic refined products.

Kernel Crushing: Our kernel crushing plants have a combined capacity of 549,000 tonnes per annum, producing higher value palm kernel oil and palm kernel meal. Marketing: As a 'One Stop Supplier', we distribute and market our products for both local and export markets. We produce two of Indonesia's leading brands of cooking oil - Filma and Kunci Mas. Leading edge proprietary IT systems: Our proprietary SAP system, which was 10 years in the making, harnesses technology that puts us in the forefront of precision agriculture. GAR is now fully equipped with a state-of-the-art system, which serves as a one-stop multi-function monitoring and management control system for our entire plantation and downstream operations. With this capability, our operational management has the latest updates at their fingertips. In-house R&D facilities: Our research and development facilities reside with us through our subsidiary PT SMART Tbk. Known as the SMART Research Institute, the facilities are based in Riau. This institute undertakes the full range of research in agronomic activites, including fertiliser optimisation and soil viability, among others. The institute collaborates with both national and international research houses and academic institutions including the renowned Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développment in France. Business Activities in China Include: Deep sea port and storage facility: We have secured the last deep sea port site strategically located in Eastern China along with the storage facility. The port is equipped with high-speed Buhler mechanical and pneumatic bulk grain unloaders that can operate at design rates of 1,250 tonnes per hour. Crushing: We own domestic crushing facilities that allow us to import soybean and process it domestically. The crushing plant is located in Ningbo with capacity of 1,002,000 tonnes per annum. Refining: Our refineries in Ningbo and Zhuhai have total capacity of 380,000 tonnes per annum. We also have a new margarine and shortening plant with capacity of 33,000 tonnes per annum. Sales and distribution network: Most of our products are sold in China's domestic market. We have set up sales representative and liaison offices and collaborate with leading distributors.

Singapore, 11 November 2010 - Golden Agri-Resources Ltd and its subsidiaries

(“GAR” or the “Company”) recorded an outstanding growth for the first nine months

2010 (“9M 2010”) with a 40% year-on-year increase in revenue to US$2.3 billion.

EBITDA for the period increased by 56% to US$424 million compared to US$272

million achieved for the same period last year.

The strong growth was supported by a 28% increase in average CPO market price

(FOB) from US$615 per tonne during 9M 2009 to US$790 per tonne during 9M

2010. This contributed to the increase in 9M 2010 net profit to US$254 million from

US$134 million in the same period last year, despite weaker production

performance in 2010. 3Q 2010 EBITDA and net profit also showed year-on-year

growth of 32% and 41%, respectively, supported by a 31% increase in CPO market

price (FOB).

Strong Brands in Asia

From integrated palm oil facilities, they produce bulk products, such as crude palm oil, palm kernel, palm kernel oil, palm kernel meal, olein, stearin, cocoa butter substitute, soybean oil and soybean meal.

Golden Agri also produce a full range of refined branded products, such as cooking oil, margarine, butter oil substitute, shortening and fats for end-customers, restaurants, hotels, cafés and industrial markets.

COOKING

OIL Filma® Kunci Mas® BissOil

BUTTER OIL

SUBSTITUTE Palmboom® B.O.S Palmvita® Gold B.O.S V38

SPECIALTY FATS Delicio® Coating Fat Delicio® Toffee Fat Delicio® White Delicoa 38® CBS

MARGARINE Filma® Menara® Mitra® Palmboom® Palmvita® Pusaka®

SHORTENING Delicio® White Fat Palmvita® White Fat Palmvita® Baker's Fat Palmvita® Gold Creaming Fat Menara® Baker's Fat Mitra® Baker's Fat Pusaka® White Baker's Fat

FRYING FAT Good Fry®

COOKING OIL

Grand Slam (大满

贯)

Red Rose (红玫瑰)

Flagship (旗舰)

Better life (贝特力

)

Master Chef (厨神)

MARGARINE, SHORTENING &

BUTTER OIL SUBSTITUTE

Golden Carrier (金舰)

Flagship (旗舰)

Seagull (海鸥)

Golden Seagull (金鸥)

2009 2008 2007 2006

Consolidated Income Statement

(US$ '000)

Net revenue 2,293,69 2,985,948 1,873,352 1,129,587

Gross profit 509,430 876,117

Profit from operations 617,735 1,986,316 1,757,968 777,556

Profit before income tax 593,146 1,947,060 1,802,945 740,583

EBITDA(1) 401,088 597,230 534,663 215,029

Net profit attributable to equity holders 606,962 1,382,526 1,164,792 470,533

Weighted average number of shares (million shares)*

11,558 11,067 10,585 9,623

Earning per share (USD cents)# 5.25 12.49 11.00 4.89

Profit from operations per share (USD cents)#

5.34 17.95 16.61 8.08

Consolidated Balance Sheet

(US$ '000)

Total assets 7,900,480 6,825,507 5,012,814 2,985,362

Total current assets 1,105,699 707,481 763,817 424,000

Total current liabilities 724,272 547,989 517,790 347,916

Total long-term liabilities 1,642,453 1,570,688 1,113,814 716,150

Minority interests 96,062 93,104 78,644 216,424

Equity attributable to equity holders 5,437,693 4,613,726 3,302,566 1,704,872

Ratio

Sales growth -23.2% 59.4% 65.8% 37.9%

Gross profit growth -41.9% 33.1% 144.0% 34.7%

Operating profit growth -68.9 13.0% 126.1% 127.5%

Pre-tax profit growth -69.5% 8.0% 143.4% 119.3%

EBITDA growth -32.8% 11.7% 148.6% 32.3%

Net profit growth (2) -56.1% 18.7% 147.5% 101.8%

Gross profit margin 22.2% 29.3% 35.1% 23.9%

Operating profit margin 26.9% 66.5% 93.8% 68.8%

EBITDA margin 17.5% 20.0% 28.5% 19.0%

Net profit margin (2) 26.5% 46.3% 62.2% 41.7%

Return on equity 11.2% 30.0% 35.3% 27.6%

Return on assets 7.7% 20.3% 23.2% 15.8%

Current ratio 1.53 1.29 1.48 1.22

Net debt to equity (3) 0.06 0.09 0.10 0.20

Receivable turnover (days) (4) 19 16 16 15

Inventory turnover (days) (5) 68 48 68 61

Other Information

Average CPO Price - FOB Belawan (US$ per tonne)

632 872 716 416

Remarks: (1) EBITDA = earnings before tax, minority interests, interest on borrowings, depreciation, and amortisation, net gain from changes in fair value of biological assets, foreign exchange gain or loss, exceptional items and share of results of associated companies (2) net profit = net profit attributable to equity holders (3) net debt to equity = (total borrowings - cash and cash equivalents - short-term investments) / equity attributable to equity holders (4) receivable turnover = average trade receivables / net revenue * 365 (5) inventory turnover = average inventory / cost of sales * 365

Chutinush Taksinapinunt holds a Bachelor of Business Administration degree Majoring in Finance and Banking. Chutinush Taksinapinunt is an experienced Market Maker and Portfolio Manager having worked with some of Thailand’s largest Securities Companies and Financial Insitutions.

Heffernan Capital Management

Shayne Heffernan of Ebeling Heffernan www.ebeling-heffernan.com prepared this report, Mr

Heffernan holds a PhD in Economics serves as CEO of Heffernan Holdings www.heffernan-

inc.com and oversee’s trading at Heffernan Capital Management He is also Co Founder of

Ebeling Heffernan www.ebeling-heffernan.com the fastest growing Financial Services company

in ASEAN.

Corporate Services

Ebeling Heffernan www.ebeling-heffernan.com [email protected]

Funds Management

Heffernan Capital Management www.heffernan-inc.com [email protected]

To Trade with HCM Pro Trader contact [email protected]

Bangkok

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Tel: +66 2 126 8000 Fax: +66 2 126 8080

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Tel: +65 6329 6408Fax: +65 6329 9699

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