CHAPTER - III

FOREIGN TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDIA

A REVIEW OF TRADE LITERATURE AND POLICIES

The external sector has come to occupy an important place in the growth

and development process of the Indian economy. Traditionally, India had been a low

import and low export-oriented country. Throughout the 60's and 70's, India's policy of

encouraging self-reliance has given a relatively closed model of development. Due to

the change in policies in 1977-78 and onwards, trade share in the GDP has been

gradually mounting. Infact, India's trade, trade policy and experience of economic

performance have a story of fluctuating fortunes during four and half decades of planned

development. The past resulted changes and reversals of economic performance through

the trade are here onwards assessed and analysed. In this chapter two aspects are

covered. Firstly, the empirical literatures that are connected with India's trade and growth

are reviewed. This review is to know the way in which earlier writings placed the trade

in India's economic growth. Subsequently, the macro level trade policies adopted in the

past four and half decades are reviewed and its consequences are evaluated.

3.1 TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDIA : A LITERATURE REVIEW

Inspite of the mounting importance of trade in the post-Independence growth

of the Indian economy, the study of the trade and growth has received less attention.

To review the earlier literature, one can distinguish all the studies into three categories

on the basis of the methodology they adopted viz., 1) the study based on Bivariate and

Multivariate Regression analysis, 2) Causality analysis and 3) Inter-industrial analysis.

B. V. Gupta (1973) initiated a systematic discussion on the trade and growth

in his Ph.D. thesis titled. "Export in Developing Economy - A case study of India"

He adopted correlation and regression methods to assess the relation between export

70

and growth for the period of 1951-52 to 1970-71. The study concluded that Indian

Export had positive impact on its economic development by enabling India to more

developmental import. However, for developing nations the study viewed that, unstable

character of export has failed to stimulate the economy. The study results are

self-contradictory and outdated. Though substantial literature came in 70's and 80 s

on trade policy regime, they have not dealt with the relationship between trade and

economic growth. These literature includes books written by Bhagwati and Srinivasan

(1975), Bhagwati and Desai (1978) and Wolf (1982). All these tracts have supported

for the policy of export promotion and import liberalisation in promoting growth and

development. In the book " Export and Growth" D.N.Tripathi (1985) ran regression

for the period of 1948-49 to 1981-82 at disaggregated level and obtained dependence of

national income on export. He supported Chenery's two-gap model by declaring that

export is beneficial to India's growth as it permits higher import. The main limitation of

all the above study is that they ignored the import.

Recently, a number of studies have inducted import into the discussion of

growth. Mainly they are Siddharthan (1989), Sunil Mani (1991), Sunanda Sen and

Hiranya Mukhopadhyay (1994). They observed a phenomenon of higher import

intensity in Indian industry and economy over the period. All these studies except the

last one, have treated total import as leakage to economic growth. The last study has

measured structural linkages among GDP, export and import by formulating its own

macro model with the data for the period of 1973-1990. The study result indicates that

one per cent rise in real import raises nearly 0.5 per cent of growth rate. They also find

that both of export and import are essential inputs for the growth. A.I.Rashid (1995)

has developed four equation model for 1977 to 1989 to assess inter-dependency

between trade and development. She concluded that trade is an important factor in

economic development. V.N. Attri (1992) and Metwally (1993) measured dynamic

effects of export on the rest of the economy. They found that scale mechanism is

71

operated through manufactured export in India. Using modified Koyak type lagged

simultaneous equations model, Metwally concludes that India has enjoyed a short-run

spread effect of export. However, study has not considered the problem of auto

correlation in the analysis.

The above studies have made an elementary exercise and have

forwarded the very broader and generalised conclusions. Regression and Correlation

analyses do not take care of causal relationship that exists between trade and

economic growth.

The first study is carried out by Jung and Marshall on causal relations

between export and growth by using Granger test. They found that there is no

support for the causal hypothesis that export growth causes output growth and vice-

versa, in case of India for the period 1960-1979. Subsequent writers noticed that Jung

and Marshall did not make use of any analytical procedure in determining

optimal lag length. Nandi and Biswas (1991) and Nandi and Basu (1993) in a cross­

country study, arrived at the conclusion that the study of export growth causes growth

of income using the Sim's test of causation. It is irony that the study of Jung and

Marshall and the later two studies with the two different techniques have arrived at the

contrary conclusions on the causal relationship between export and growth T his

questions the validity of Granger and Sim's techniques to assess the relationship

between trade and growth.

In a significant study, S.K.Mallick (1994) has employed Granger, Sim's

and modified Sim's (Geweke - Meese-Dent) test with improved optimal lags selection

to measure the causal relationship between export and growth for the period of

1950-51 to 1991-92. The result reject the null hypothesis that economic growth does

not cause export growth and vice-versa. The study also demonstrates the

72

validity of its finding with the use of Geweke test even after extending bivariate

system to a trivariate one by introducing import as a linkage variable. By and large, the

study concludes that there is a feed back causal linkage between income growth and

export growth without and with link variable. The main drawback of the study is it

ignores the structural break in the series. G.R.Ramkrishna (1994) in his Ph D thesis

confirmed uni-directional relationship from export to growth in India for the period of

1960-61 by using Granger test. One of the major shortcomings of all the above studies

is that, they have not tested stationary conditions of time series while applying causality

test.

Recently Sham Bhat (1995) has applied Granger test after testing

cointegration of export with GNP. The results revealed that there is a bi-directional

causal relationship between export and economic growth in India during the period of

1950-51 to 1993-94. In a significant study, Dipendra Sinha and Tapen Sinha (1996)

examined the relationship between volume trade and economic growth using time

series data. They adopted cointegration technique and found that there is a long run

relationship between real GDP and trade openness. They also observed that two way

causality exists between real GNP and trade openness. Thus it is evident that there is

a bi-directional relationship between export and economic growth in India

During the last decade a number of studies have measured inter-industrial

effect of trade on Indian economy by using yard stick of input-output technique. The

main studies conducted in this regard are Siddarthan (1989), Atul Sharma and Kewal

Ram (1989), Sathe Dhanmanjari (1990), Dholakia (R-H), Dholakia (B.H.) and Kumar

(1992), Dhawan Sangeetha (1993). J.K.Mallick (1994) and S.P.Sharma and K.K Saxena

(1994). The above studies have acknowledged that import intensity of economy and

industries in India have been increased over a period of time. All the studies have

employed different input-output tables of Indian economy. Sathe in his study used all

73

input-output tables from 1951-52 to 1982-83 and he observed that the income effect of

export has been almost halved and the import intensity has been doubled during the

period under study. Dholakia (R.H.) Dholakia (B.H.) and Kumar used input-output

table of 1983-84 and observed the phenomena of growth-led export rather than export-

led growth. The major drawback in the above said studies is that they have treated

import as a leakage to the economic growth. This defect is removed by Sharma and

Saxena, who divided import into complementary and competitive in their studies By

analysing the import effect for 1979-80 and 1984-85, they concluded that the use of

import for intermediate consumption has gone down over the years. However the author’s

compartmentisation of the total import as competitive and complementary is purely

subjective. In addition to this chosenjsample period is too small.

A severe attack comes on the issues of trade in documentation of

pro-marxist's thought by R.S.Nambiar and Gopal Tadas (1994). By assessing the

output and employment in 33 manufacturing industries from 1973 to 1991, they stated

that trade is deindustrialising India. Using input-output framework, the study

attributed all the gains of development to internal factors and all loss in output and

employment to trade. However, the method they adopted for distinguish period as

industrialising and deindustrialising, is a misleading one. The study is bias and treared

all import as a leakage to growth. The study itself quoted many of its limitations

substantiates biasness in its result. By and large, all the above studies only measured

Static inter-industrial effect and ignored both of causal and dynamic relationship

between trade and growth. Indian experience in planning and policy making has

underlined the great need for a comprehensive study on trade and economic growth

The above said review provides a wide variety of combating results

Different numerical and methodological exercises have arrived at different

results. Not a single study has provided long run, historical consistent.

74

structural and dynamic analysis on the role of total trade in the process of India's

economic growth. Ignorance of structural and policy shifts while choosing sampling

period in many studies have limited the validity of its results. Not a single study

addressed the issues raised in the second chapter. Trade is a singled out as either export

as a stimulant or import as a leakage in all the above static and partial empirical studies.

Everything has been said and done in India, but not properly assessed and analysed.

Indian experience in planning and policy making have underlined the great need for a

comprehensive study on trade and economic growth.

3.2 TRADE POLICY AND GROWTH IN INDIA : REVIEW OF POLICY AND

EVIDENCE

India has faced a dilemma in choosing her trade strategy between IS and

EP as a strategy to economic development during the planning era in the past

The trade policies adopted in India have often been widely at variance with those that

are derived from the models of either protection or free trade. India has been

experimenting with the combination of import substitution and export promotion

strategies in varying degrees during the last four and half decades. However, India is

recognised as being one with the heavily inward-oriented developing countries

But there is a clear cut shift in the trade policies during the period 1955-56 to

1995-96. Considering policy shift and structural shift in Indian economy, one can

divide the policy period into three categories (1) Heavy protection period (1955-56 to

197-6-77), (2) Semi-liberalised period (1977-78 to 1990-91) (3) Trade liberalisation

period (1990-91 onwards). During heavy protection period, trade system in India

is progressively more restrict and complex and protection was total. After 1976-77 the

import sector has been gradually liberalised and measures for export promotion have

been increased. After 1990-91 India has initiated bunches of trade liberalisation

measures in the form of liberalisation of import and promotion of export led-growth

economy. The policy shifts recognized above have been authenticated and

75

documented in most of the studies including World Bank studies. The policies that

are undertaken in the broad trade strategies are discussed below.

3.2.1 Heavy Protection Period

India had not specified her trade strategy for development during the First

Plan Period (1951-56). Import regime was quite liberal. From the Second Plan

(1956-61) period, the country adopted highly intensive import substitution strategy to

achieve industrialisation-led development. During the Second Plan, priority was given

to the development of manufacturing and capital goods sector. In early stages of

development, India had to import capital goods. Thus emphasis was on replacing these

capital goods with the domestic production. The factors like promotion of infant and

key industry, change of composition of trade and GDP, export pessimism, spirit of

nationalism and socialism have enforced India to promote import competing industry

To minimise trade distortions and to promote principle of self-reliance in production,

India had injected heavy dose of IS policies by enforcing all types of physical and

non-physical interventionist policies. This includes import and industrial licencing

system with high level tariffs.

The import-export gap had been widened, during the latter half of the

Second Plan due to neutral response of the export sector to IS policy. Therefore export-

promotion was inducted along with heavy IS regime in trade policy during the third

plan (1961-66) and it continued in the subsequent three annual plan periods

A new dimensions of export promotion efforts was added in the form of creating a

number of organisation and providing export incentives and other services to exporters

Cash Compensatory Support (CCS), Duty Drawbacks (DD), Replenishment and

Import licences are the main components in the basket of export incentives India

devalued her currency at the rate of 57.5 per cent against Dollars in 1966 to promote

export. As a result of these, export has been picked up during the fourth plan

76

(1969-74). Along with incentive measures, export controls and export taxes are also

levied on certain commodities to safeguard the interest of the nation.

Meanwhile, a number of committees and Task Forces were set up by

Government of India and Reserve Bank of India (RBI) during 1975-85 to study the

functioning of existing trade policies and to suggest remedial measures to make it more

effective in promoting trade-led development. Among them, the most important

committees were Dr.Aiexander Committee (1978), Tandon Committee (1980) and Abid

Hussain Committee (1984). These committees reviewed the operation of various

policies and its implications on trade as well as development and recommended a

number of innovative measures to rationalise the trade policies. They also urged the

Government of India to take action to promote export and to liberalise import policy.

3.2.2 Semi-liberalised Period

Export promotion acquired a new urgency during late 70's due to the

increased demand for import, stagnant export earnings and industrial stagnation

Government of India has been forced to mitigate the negative effects of high

protection and to reduce anti-export bias. Therefore, Government of India initiated

a new approach of liberalisation in IS regime with more export promotion measures

The important policy changes related to import sector since 1978, are expansions of

OGL lists, shift in goods from more to less restrictive list, swifter and less restrictive,

administrative judgements, concessional duties and reduction in scope of canalisation

There has been greater degree of simplifying and intermediate import. But import of

consumer goods are continued to be banned. A number of direct incentives were given

to export sector in the form of simplified export procedure, reduction in export taxes,

more advanced and special licence for import, promotion of export-oriented industries

and Foreign Trade Zones, concessional finance, tax rebate and unified exchange rate

77

Due to change in the policy measures, there has been a steady increase in

the number of capital goods in the OGL lists from 79 in 1976 to 1170 in April 1988

The process of import liberalisation has gathered considerable momentum following

the introduction of the long term import-export (EXIM) policies covering the period

1985-86 to 1990-91. Import of raw materials and technical know-how required by

manufacturing sector were almost made free from licencing formalities. The licence

issued to registered exporters out of total licences was 26.6 per cent in 1981 which was

increased to 68.4 per cent in 1991. As a result of this, there exists an import-led export

growth in India.

The sorrowful story in external sector starts from 1987. Though export

growth during the period was not bad, export did not pick up at the level of import

The current account of the balance of payment has been deteriorated in late 80's

A continuous increase in budgetary and fiscal deficit from mid 80's created more

pressure on external payment. Along with the frequent depreciation of Rupees in late

80's, tariff levels were increased which pushed up the cost push inflation and downed

the export. India's historically low inflation exceeded to 17 per cent in August 1991

At the USA Dollar of 10 billions in 1991 (3.5 per cent of GDP), the current account

deficit of balance of payment (BOP) was unsustainable. This long run failure of macro

economic management provoked by Gulf crisis of 1990-91, ended with crisis of foreign

exchange in 1991. At the time, India had reserves for just a week import. This has put

down industrial growth at the negative level followed by the burst of import. So India

has shifted her policy towards EP or Outward-oriented strategy after 1990-91

3.2.3 Trade Liberalisation Period

The wake of grave crisis in 1990-91, India has been initiating macro

structural reforms which includes a bunch of reforms in external sector. The trade

liberalisation measures are initiated in the form of import liberalisation and export

78

led-growth. The task of liberalisation is frequently described in catchy words of

Privatisation, Liberalisation and Globalisation. New EXIM Policy (1977-2002) and

liberalised exchange rate system envisage a leading role for trade or export in the

economic growth of India.

The external sector reforms constitute three main elements viz. exchange

rate adjustment, fiscal correction and structural reforms. Liberalised exchange rate

(Floating) management system (LERMS) with 22 per cent heavy devaluation of money

against foreign currency was adopted to boost export and invisible receipts Current

account of trade is made fully convertible in 1993-94. This conversion will be

extended to capital account in the near future. A series of fiscal measure launched to

restore viability in external payment account. The reduction in tax rate and

unproductive public expenditure are the main elements of fiscal reforms India has

launched extensive structural reforms to promote trade led-development. In July 1991,

the new industrial policy was announced by the Government, to promote

export by making goods internationally competitiveness via exposing foreign

technology and industries. A number of items required of industrial licencing are

reduced to 15. Automatic approval of foreign investment proposal upto 51 per cent of

equity and even above in the case of export-oriented industries is allowed. Introduction of

EXIM policy 1992-97 has come with bunches of trade liberalisation reforms.

Import licencing mechanism has radically altered. The duty free import

licence, advanced import licence and special import licence now constitute

important vehicle of trade policy to promote export growth. Import and export licencing

and procedure are substantially reduced. Except for the negative list of import all items

are freely importable. The EXIM policy reduced a number of items subjected to export

controls from 439 to 215 and so on. An open general licence (OGL) has been extended

to include more than 1000 items. Out of 5021 tariff lines more than 300 tariff lines

79

cover capital goods, and inputs that are made free of import licencing requirements

Simultaneously, the Cash Compensatory Support (CCS) were abolished and

Replenishment licence were replaced by EXIM scrips. Scrips also disappeared and

Export Promotion Capital Goods (EPCG) scheme is insisted. Tariffs are made uniform

by merging revenue duty under basic duty. Tariff rates were reduced from 350 per cent

to very low level. It comes to the level of 40 per cent in 1997-98 Budget. The 199"-98

budget aims at getting the average tariff rate down to Asian Level by 2000 It also

proposed a modest reduction in duty on capital goods from 25 per cent to 20 per cent.

Simultaneously, for the first time after Independence consumer goods import were

allowed in the latest budget. Despite the above reforms, direct incentives are extended

to exporters in the form of tax concessions, subsidised export finances and otner

concessions.

In 1992 the Government of India constituted the high level comminee

(Rangarajan 1992) to look into the implications of the reforms initiated upon

the Balance of payment problem. The recommendations of the committee which came

out in 1993 lent further support to the measures of liberalisation in external sector

It also suggested the opening up of the current and capital accounts for full

convertibility of the rupee. This has been already initiated by the Government. The

Government of India also prepared ground for globalise its economy into world

economy by joining World Trade Organisation (WTO).

The new EXIM policy was introduced on 31st March 199”7 by the

Commerce Ministry for 1997 to 2002, which has made further commitment towards

the export led-growth approach. The new policy focuses on liberalisation, openness

transparency and globalisation. The policy was encouraged by 14 per cent growth n

export during the 8th plan. This policy,cut down the list of quantitative restnctions on

import, simplified the procedures, reduced the multiplicity of schemes as in the case of

80

duty exemption, provided a special incentive for agro and allied sectors, high-tech

export and small scale sector products and encouraged domestic sourcing of input

Significantly, the policy has shifted 542 items out of the restricted list. The Commerce

Ministry appears to be roughly on target in dismantling quantitative restrictions by

2002. By removing the controversial value based advance licence scheme (vabal) and

pass book scheme, it introduced a new duty of entitlement pass book scheme (DEPS)

Though the EXIM policy does not have a long run perspective, it paved the way for

further import liberalisation and export promotion.

Indian trade regime has been comprehensively analysed by a number of

studies during the last three decades. Major of them are descriptive and unpublished

monographs. The pioneering work of Bhagwati and Srinivasan (1975) and Panchamukhi

(1978), basically covered the experience of trade policies of 1960's. These studies

concluded that the IS policy has hampered growth and export competitiveness

The elaborated study conducted by Wolf (1982) focussed only export sector

The experience of 70's and early 80’s was studied in an unpublished Ph D. thesis by

Rao (1985). The description of trade regime of the 1980’s is given mainly in recent two

World Bank working papers by M. Ataman - Aksoy (1989) and Aksoy and Tang ( 1992)

The results of above mentioned studies, clearly indicates that the trade regimes were

complex and very restrictive and they harmed the growth of the economy and the export

in India . Sensitiveness of the economy with trade and exchange rate is also identified

by the above said study. The complexities of trade regime and non-availabilities of

updated statistics, have limited the above studies to quantify the scope and extent of

restrictions of tariff structure and magnitude of export incentives and their implications

on Indian economy. Thus one can't visualize the failure of IS trade policy in India only

on the basis of the above studies.

Recently a number of studies have made an attempt to measure the

81

impact of import liberalisation and trade reforms on Indian economy and export

sector. They include Atul Sharma and Keval Ram (1989). Sunil Mani (1991), Aksoy

and Tang (1992), Dholakia and Dholakia and Kumar (1992), D. Sing (1994), J K.Mallick

(1994). These studies used various empirical methods and came to the conclusion that

import liberalisation has led to the high level import intensive industrialisation and

export promotion in India. Basically most of these studies are concluded as above on

the basis of experience of the economy during the period of 1977 to 1991 In a recent

study, Sarkar (1996) assessed the impact of on going trade liberalisation by using trend

and regression method for the period 1991-96. He concluded that data does not shows

that export have picked up and balances of trade has improved since 1991. Thus results

of most of the studies have revealed that import liberalisation leads in increasing import

intensity of economy and export sector and rise in external payment gap.

A review of trade policy of the Government of India pertaining to the

period 1955-56 to 1995-96 revealed that trade policy lacked consistency both in terms

of time and principles. India practiced the highest degree of protection where

multiple rate of tariff widely fluctuated between 125 to 350 per cent during the last four

and half decades of planned development. Numerous changes are made in the import

and export policy documents from time to time by public notice because of which it is

difficult to ascertain the scope and the extent of the quantitative restrictions

India adopted IS strategy as a short run measure to stabilise the BOP current account

deficit rather than as a development strategy. Exchange rate adjustment mechanism are

over emphasised and physical factors are not considered while adopting trade policy

(Manjappa and Ishwar Hegde 1995). The policy variables such as high degree of tariff

quantitative restriction, complicated import and export procedure along with less com­

mitted bureaucracy set up, have minimised the role of trade in the development The

share of import and export in the world trade has been declined from 1.9 and 18 per

cent in 1950 to 0.6 per cent and 0.5 per cent in 1995-96 respectively. Even share of

82

total trade in GDP is almost stagnant around 13 to 14 per cent during 1950 to 1991

This had led the planners and others to view that trade has no positive role in

economic growth and development of India.

Export promotion measures were rendered by complex licence a.nd

regulated system. The discriminatory protectionism has led to costlier domestic

output and has reduced the competitiveness of export goods. Thus IS policy was over

emphasised by the philosophy of self-reliance rather than building international

competitive spirits in industrial and non-industrial sectors.

The experience of past trade policy of India indicates that the stagnation of

export sector has caused imbalance in the balance of payment. Though the response of

economy and export sector to latest reforms has been generally positive, macro

economic stresses raised by reforms posed a new challenges for the future reform

process. During the last one and half years, effect of liberalisation is not so optimistic

for the economy. There is a dear sign of decceleration in growth of import, export,

industrial output and net invisible receipts. Hence, these issues required urgent

empirical verification.

India has achieved commendable achievements in certain fields through

trade policies. Nevertheless, the policy environment did enable India to develop into a

large manufacturing sector. Its share of GDP has been increased from 11.5 per cent on

1950-51 to 17.4 per cent in 1994-95. The positive change in composition of import,

export and GDP over the period is largely due to the IS policy. It is also noticed that

India could sustain her economy from external shocks fairly better than other

developing countries, specially during oil crisis (Joshi and Little 1994) A rapid

development of technology and industrialisation is the distinct contribution of IS policy

for the Indian economy. Thus resultants and reversals of the trade policy of India reveal

83

that India could achieve further higher development if policies were rationally

implemented. Therefore, any failure of trade policy rises out of wTong notions and

isolation of economy from the external sector.

The structural transformation in Indian economy during the period of last

four and half decades has provided enough experience to make it possible to

assess the relative role of trade in the process of economic growth. Underlining the

above observations, the present study is makes an attempt to measure the long term link

between trade and economic growth. While quantifying trade and growth

relationship, effect of policy shifts are recognised. In adopting time series techniques

trade liberalisation period is included in the semi-liberalised period as techniques

require sufficient number of observations. Thus present study mainly considered two

policy period 1) Heavy protection period (1955-56 to 1976-77), 2) Semi-liberalised

period (1977-78 to 1995-96). However, Trade liberalisation period (1991-96) is

separately considered wherever the methodology permits.

84

REFERENCES

1. Aksoy, A.M. and Helana, Tang. 1992. Imports and Exports and Industrial

Performance in India 1970-88. World Bank Working Paper No 969

(Aug).

2. Attri, V.N. 1992. Trade Liberiization in Developing Countries : A Literature

Survey. Indian Economic Journal 38(3) (Jan-March) : 41-57

3. Bhagwati, J.N. and Padma Desai. 1970. India : Planning for

Industrialisation. Oxford : Oxford University Press.

4. Bhagwati, J.N. and T.N. Srinivasan, 1975. Foreign Trade Regimes and

Economic Development - India. New York : National Bureau of

Economic Research.

5. Bhat, Sham. 1995. Export and Economic Growth in India. Art ha Vijnana

37(4) (Dec) : 350-358.

6. Dholakia, D.H. and Dtiolakia, B.H. and Ganesh Kumar. 1992. Issues in

Strategy for Export Promotion. Economic and Political Weekly

(November) : M-149-M-156.

7. Government of India, Ministry of Commerce 1978. Report of the

Committee on Import-Export Policies and Procedures. (P C Alexander

Chairman) : New Delhi.

8. Government of India. 1984. Report of the Committee on Trade Policies.

(Abid Hussain, Chairman) : New Delhi.

9. Government of India, Ministry of Trade 1993 Report of the High

Committee on Trade Reforms. (Rangarajan, Chairman) : New Delhi

10. Joshi, Vijay and I.M.D. Little. 1994. India : Macro Economics and Political

Economy, 1964-1991. The World Bank. Washington, D C.

11. Mallick, J.K. 1994. Import Liberalisation and Industrial Growth Reserve

Bank of India Occasional Paper, 15(1) (March) : 31-54.

85

12. Mani, Sunil. 1991. Export Liberalisation and Import-Dependence

Economic and Political Weekly (July) : 1693-1696.

13. Manjappa, H.D. and Ishwar, Hegde. 1995. The Budgetary Deficit and the

External Trade Account in India : An Empirical Study. Foreign Trade

Review 30(1) (April-June) : 85-92.

14. Metwally, M.M. 1993. International Interdependence and Economic

Development in Asian Countries. The Indian Economic Journal

40(3) (Jan-March) : 58-75.

15. Nambiar, R.G. and Gopal, Tadas. 1994. IS Trade Deindustrialising India?

Economic and Political Weekly (Oct 15) : 2741-46.

16. Nandi and B.Biswas. 1991. Export and Economic Growth in India

The Indian Economic Journal 38(3) : 53-59.

17. Nandi and S.Basu. 1993. Interaction between Export and Economic Growth

: An Econometric Study. Journal of Foreign Exchange and

International Finance. 6(4).

18. Panchamukhi, V.R. 1978. Trade Policies of India : A Quantitative

Analysis. Concept Publication Company, New Delhi.

19. Ramkrishna, G.R. 1994. Import Substitution, Export and Economic

Growth in India. Unpublished Ph D. Thesis, Hyderabad : Osmania

University.

20. Rao 1985. Exchange Rate and Commercial Policy in a Controlled Trade

Regime : A Case Study of India. D.Phil. Thesis., Oxford University

21. Rashid, Aneesa 1995. Trade, Growth and Liberalization : The Indian

Experience 1977-1989. The Journal of Developing Areas 29 (April)

335-370.

22. Sarkar, Prabirjit. 1996. Crisis of the Indian Economy Economic and

Political Weekly 32(9) (March 2) : 532-536.

86

23. Sathe, Dhanmanjari. 1990. An Analysis of the Linkages of Foreign Trade

for the Indian Economy : 1951-52 to 1978-79. unpublished Ph D

Thesis, University of Poona.

24. Sen, Sunanda and Hiranya, Mukhopadhyay. 1994. Devaluation, Liberalisation

and Structural Linkages between India's Foreign Trade and National

Income. Economic and Political Weekly (Sep 3) : 2364-2367

25. Sharma, Atul and Keval, Ram. 1989. Income, Output & Employment

Linkages and Import Intensities of Manufacturing Industries in

India. Journal of Development Studies 25(2) (Jan) : 192-209.

26. Sharma, S.P. and K.K.Saxena. 1994. Impact of Competitive import on

Growth Structure of Production, Employment in India Paper

presented at 30th Annual Conference of Indian Econometric Society

in Mysore from l-3rd May.

27. Siddharthan, N.S. 1989. Impact of Import Liberalisation on Export

Intensities - A study of the Indian Private Corporate Sector The Indian

Economic Journal : 37(2).

28. Sing, D. 1994. Impact of Liberalisation on Export. Reserve Bank of India

Occasional Paper, 15(1) (March) : 55-73.

29. Sinha, Dipendra and Tapen, Sinha 1996. Openness and Economic Growth in

India. Indian Journal of Economics 77(304) : 115-125.

30. Tripathi, B.N. 1985. Export and Economic Growth. New Delhi Mittal

Publications.

31. Wolf, Martin. 1982. India's Export. Oxford : Oxford University Press.

87