shuyi s. chen rosenstial school of marine and atmospheric science university of miami
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(DRAFT only!!! Improving Hurricane Structure and Intensity Forecast: Toward the next-generation models). Shuyi S. Chen Rosenstial School of Marine and Atmospheric Science University of Miami. (Hurricane Briefing, 10 July 2007). In the eye of Katrina. Current State of Hurricane Forecasting. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Shuyi S. ChenRosenstial School of Marine and Atmospheric Science
University of Miami
(DRAFT only!!!Improving Hurricane Structure and Intensity Forecast:
Toward the next-generation models)
In the eye of Katrina
(Hurricane Briefing, 10 July 2007)
Current State of Hurricane Forecasting
Track forecast errors cut in half
in 15 years
No progress with intensity
MM5 (1.6km)WRF (1.6km)
NHC Fcst
Obs
New Research Model Forecasting Experiment
1.6 km
15 km
Airborne radar observed rain in Hurricane Floyd (1999)
The best operational model
High-resolution research model
Most global operational models
45 km
Impact of Model Resolution on Hurricane Forecast
NRL
Sponsored by
Parners:
High Resolution Model Forecasts for Rita’s Eyewall Replacement
Airborne Radar Observed Rita’s Concentric Eyewalls
Atmosphere
Waves
OceanLand
State-of-the-Art of the Next-Generation Hurricane Forecast Model (High-Resolution and Fully Coupled)
CBLAST(Coupled Boundary Layer Air-Sea Transfer)
(Coupled Boundary Layer Air-Sea Transfer)
A goal of CBLAST is to better understand how hurricanes interact with the ocean, and to use this to improve hurricane forecast models
Significant Wave Height (m)
Model Forecast of Hurricane Katrina (2005) (water depth)
RainRate
Surface Wind Speed (m/s)
Better understanding of physical processes that lead to extreme winds, heavy rain, and storm surge in hurricanes
New technologies needed for an integrated hurricane forecasting system that is based on state-of-the-art computer models, data assimilation, and observations
New tools for assessing hurricane impacts on ecosystems and human dimensions including the potential loss of life, economic damage, insured losses, power outage, surge and fresh-water flooding
New strategies for better warnings of when and where damaging winds and heavy rain will occur, enabling emergency planners to provide for an appropriate level of preparedness
Transition of new research and technologies into operations
ChallengesChallenges
Sustainable partnership among academics, industries, and federal government
Effective and accountable research facility that can provide smooth transition from research to operations
Direct communications between researchers and forecasters