26/3/2017 Madrid considers ‘nuclear option’ to halt Catalan referendum

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Spanish politics

Madrid considers ‘nuclear option’ to halt Catalan referendum

Constitutional crisis looms, as Spain flirts with invoking Article 155 to stop ballot

© AFP

FEBRUARY 23, 2017 by: Tobias Buck in Madrid

The most talked­about number in Spanish politics these days is: 155.

Article 155 of Spain’s constitution allows the government in Madrid to intervene directly in the

running of an autonomous region, effectively ending a system of self­government that is at the

core of the country’s democratic order. After decades of obscurity, the article is emerging as a

central issue in the political battle over Catalonia (https://www.ft.com/topics/places/Cataloni

a), the northeastern region that is pushing for independence.

As the Catalan government prepares to hold a referendum on secession this year, there is

growing clamour in Madrid to invoke Article 155 and compel regional leaders to drop the vote

and obey the constitution. The article allows the state to take all “necessary measures” to

ensure compliance; if need be, by replacing officials and sending in the police.

The prospect delights hardliners on both sides. In Spain, there is widespread belief —

especially on the political right — that Madrid has tolerated the Catalan drift towards

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independence for too long and that only Article 155 can provide a decisive remedy. In

Catalonia, meanwhile, many believe that such an intervention would play into the hands of the

secession movement by rallying local support and drawing international attention to the

cause.

Either way, the move would turn a long­simmering conflict into a full­blown constitutional

crisis.

“The article is the nuclear option. If the Spanish government makes use of it, everything blows

up,” says Oriol Bartomeus, a political scientist at the Autonomous University of Barcelona.

“What Madrid has to understand is that there is no clear majority for Catalan independence (h

ttp://next.ft.com/content/0fa5b3b4­766b­11e6­b60a­de4532d5ea35). But there is a very large

majority in favour of Catalan self­rule.”

Mariano Bacigalupo, a professor of constitutional law at Spain’s Uned University, points out

that triggering Article 155 would take the country into uncharted territory. Spain has never

invoked the article, nor have other European countries with similar provisions made use of

them.

“Article 155 is a measure that was designed as a last resort, to deal with an extraordinary and

traumatic event,” he says. “It was designed not so much to be used but as a deterrence.”

Government leaders in Madrid have so far been reluctant to threaten the Catalan government

openly with intervention. But Rafael Catalá, the justice minister, described Article 155 this

month as “an option”, arguing that Madrid had an obligation to defend the law and the

constitution. Another government official says Spain’s bottom line is clear: “There will be no

referendum.”

Autonomy in Spain

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© Getty

Under the Spanish constitution, the country’s 17 autonomous regions enjoy broad powers of

self­government — for example, in education, health and welfare. Some regions including

Catalonia have separate police forces and their own official languages

Officials and analysts agree that Mariano Rajoy (http://next.ft.com/content/65592584­9c4f­1

1e6­a6e4­8b8e77dd083a), Spain’s famously cautious prime minister, would resort to Article

155 only with great reluctance. When Catalonia wanted an informal independence ballot in

2014, his government allowed the vote despite an order from the constitutional court to halt

the process. Prosecutors have since issued charges against various Catalan leaders over the

affair, but the ballot itself went ahead without intervention.

This time could be different. Catalan officials insist the planned referendum in September

should be binding, making it more difficult for Madrid to ignore the event. What is more,

independence leaders have signalled they are ready to defy any ruling from Spain’s

constitutional court suspending or banning the vote. Whatever their political calculations, Mr

Rajoy and his ministers (many of whom who are lawyers) may ultimately feel they have no

choice.

“There comes a moment when a court decision is ignored so flagrantly that not enforcing it

creates a problem for the integrity of the rule of law. But it will be a very difficult decision to

make,” says Prof Bacigalupo.

Article 155

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In Catalonia, meanwhile, there is little pressure on the government and independence

activists to pull back. After years of intense mobilisation, some sense the independence

movement is in danger of losing momentum. In that context, a high­stakes clash with Madrid

— including a possible intervention by the Spanish police to halt the voting — may seem like a

gamble worth taking.

“The independence movement knows that their people are getting tired. They want to go

straight to penalties,” says Lluis Bassets, a Barcelona­based columnist for El País.

Legal scholars offer at least one plausible alternative

to Article 155. Two years ago, Spain’s constitutional

court was given enhanced powers to enforce its

rulings — for example, by giving direct orders to the

police and public officials. Critics argue the overhaul

shifts political responsibility from the government to

the judicial branch in a manner alien to the

constitution.

Relying on the courts to take the fight to Catalonia

may be seen by Mr Rajoy as a less costly political

strategy. But intervening in the region — and

overruling the decisions made by the Catalan

parliament and government — will mark an

unprecedented escalation no matter which body

stands behind the move.

In Barcelona, meanwhile, preparations for the referendum continue. “We do not have an

agenda of disobedience, but of explicit obedience to the parliament of Catalonia,” regional

1. If an Autonomous Community does not fulfil the obligations imposed upon it by the

Constitution or other laws, or acts in a way seriously prejudicing the general interests

of Spain, the Government . . . may, following approval granted by an absolute majority

of the Senate, take the measures necessary in order to compel the latter forcibly to

meet said obligations, or in order to protect the above­mentioned general interests.

2. With a view to implementing the measures provided in the foregoing clause, the

Government may issue instructions to all the authorities of the Autonomous

Communities.

Related article

Artur Mas hopes trialwill rouse Catalanseparatist movement (http://next.ft.com/content/faa1805e-e886-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539)

Court appearance over non-bindingpoll could backfire on Madrid

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president Carles Puigdemont told the legislature this week. “We have to obey the mandate of

the Catalan parliament to hold a referendum.”

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