significance of international hydropower storage jens hobohm

Significance of international hydropower storage

for the energy transition Jens Hobohm, Project manager: [email protected] Florian Ess, Lea Haefke, Marco Wünsch

Berlin, 23 October 2012

mailto:[email protected]

© 2012 Prognos AG 2

Agenda

01 Challenges of the energy transition

02 Comparison of possible solutions

03 Hydro potential in Germany, Scandinavia and the Alps

04 Transfer capacities between countries under survey –

Status quo und prospects

05 Economic potential of storage usage

06 Open questions and conclusions


Agenda









The expansion of renewable energies is based largely on

volatile energy sources

© 2012 Prognos AG

Residual load curve 2012

5

Residual load in Germany (load minus renewable feed-in)

Assumption of must-run-capacity: 20 GW

-60000

-40000

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

MW

Hours

© 2012 Prognos AG


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-60000

-40000

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

MW

Hours

© 2012 Prognos AG


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-80000

-60000

-40000

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0

20000

40000

60000

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

MW

Hours

© 2012 Prognos AG

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-40000

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

1 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001

2012

2020

2030

2040

2050

Surplus due to fluctuating feed-in

Necessary controllable power generation

MW

The growing share of RES will lead to a potential capacity

surplus in a growing number of hours per year

Sorted yearly annual load curve: RES minus load

8

zero line:

load equals feed in of renewables and must-run

hours

© 2012 Prognos AG

Challenges for the power system due to the „Energiewende“

(energy transition)

9

Description

Capacity

surpluses

More capacity available than can be used at the same time

Long-term

security of

supply

Controllable power plants are not profitable under current

market design

Grid extension

and congestion

management

Grid extension proceeds too slowly and congestion

management becomes more important

Ancillary

services

Regulating power, current and reactive power controll, short

circuit capacity, black start capacity

Short term security of supply, local!


Agenda








© 2012 Prognos AG

The mechanics of „indirect storage“

11

0 12 24

Filling level without interconnector(s)

Inflow

Outflow (power generation)

m³/

MW

m/

TWh

MW

0

Export

Import

Export

12 24

Electricity trade from a

Scandinavian perspective

© 2012 Prognos AG

With indirect storage, electricity use will be moved along

the time line – at high efficiency

12

0 12 24

Filling level with interconnector(s)

Inflow

Outflow (power generation)m³/

MW

m/

TWh

© 2012 Prognos AG

Technology Interconnectors

(indirect storage)

Heat storage

systems

Adiabatic

compressed

air energy

storage

Pumped

storage

hydro plant

Hydrogen/

Methane

Batteries

(e.g. Electric

vehicles)

Load

management

(industry)

Load

management

(households,

tertiary sector)

Expected marketability today today 2010 to 2020 today 2020 to 2030 2015 to 2020 today 2020

Implementation time approx. 8 years 2 to 3 years 3 to 5 years 10 years 3 to 5 years 1 year 1 to 10 years 1 year

Application potential 1,4 GW per cable

2,2 to 3,6 GWel

(positive)

4 to 18 GWel

(negative)

> 700 caverns

2,7 GWel

(planned until

2020)

unlimited 3 GWel1 2 GWel 3 GWel

Range (in hours) weeks to months 4 to 24 8 to 16 4 to 8 seasonal 1 to 8 2 to 8 1 to 24

Efficiency

(power-to-power)

ca. 90%

(from Germany to

Germany)

95%

(heat-to-heat) 60 to 70% 70 to 80% 30 to 40% 75 to 95% - -

Investment costs

(EUR/kWel) 1,400

640 (positive),

120 to 350

(negative)

1,000

to 1,500

1,000

to 2,000

1,500

to 3,000

1,000

to 2,000

depending on

the process

depending on

the process

Lifetime 20 to 40 years 40 to 60 years 40 years >100 years 30 years 3,000 cycles - -

Acceptance medium good medium low to medium medium to

good good medium medium

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Comparison of options for the integration of electricity

from fluctuating renewable energy sources

1 Considering 1 Mio. E-vehicles (each with a load of 3 kW) connected to the network at the same time. Depending on the degree of connectivity, 2 to 3 Mio. E-vehicles could be expected. 2 This estimation by Prognos AG describes the situation for Germany. Different estimations concerning the acceptance of pumped storage do exist in the partner countries


Agenda








© 2012 Prognos AG

4 917

28127 4

1

27

4

27

1

2

17

102

7

27 3

4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Germany Austria Sweden Norway Switzerland

Ins

talle

d c

ap

ac

ity

[G

W]

Conventional

PV

Wind

Other RES

Pumped-storage

Hydro

163,8 GW 21,4 GW 49,1 GW 33,2 GW 18,1 GW

Structure of the installed capacity of electricity generation

in 2010 in GW

15

© 2012 Prognos AG

The storage capacity of the Scandinavian reservoirs is

2,300 times bigger than the German (0,05 TWh)

16

Maximum hydro storage capacity in Norway, Sweden, Austria, Switzerland and

Germany in 2011

82

30,05

34

90

20

40

60

80

100

120

Scandinavia Alps Germany

TWh

SE

NO

AT

CH

© 2012 Prognos AG

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

70.000

80.000

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53

GWh

Weeks

2010 2011 Average (1998 - 2011)

Filling levels of the reservoirs in Norway, weekly values

17

Source: Own presentation according to Nord Pool Spot

© 2012 Prognos AG

Legend filling of regions

0 – 999 MW

1,000 – 1,999 MW

2,000 – 2,999 MW

3,000 – 4,200 MW

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The geographical distribution of the installed capacity of

hydroelectric plants in the provinces should be noted


Agenda









There are already a number of interconnectors between

Germany and its neighbouring countries

DE

CH

FR

DKw

SE

PL

CZ

AT

NL

NO

BE

DKe

0 – 1.000 MW

1.000 – 2.000 MW

2.000 – 3.000 MW

3.000 – 3.895 MW


Agenda








© 2012 Prognos AG

In times of excess power in Germany, capacities will flow

towards Scandinavia in any case

Sorted yearly annual load curve: RES and must-run minus load

22

zero line:

load equals feed in of renewables and must-run

hours

© 2012 Prognos AG

Assumptions of the economic efficiency estimation for

interconnectors to Scandinavia

Starting point: surpluses in Germany and Scandinavia: without storage the

electricity has the value of zero

Average electricity prices in 2050 (full costs) 90 EUR / MWh

National long term storage offer for surplus electricity up to 30 EUR/MWh

Value of the indirect or direct stored electricity in 2050:

90 -30 EUR = 60 Euro2011 pro MWh

Investment costs (1.400 EUR / kW), credit for provision of power 250 EUR/kW

Interest rate 8 % for 20 Jahre annuity of 10 %.

An interconnector has to have a benefit per year of 115.000 EUR2011/MW.

At a proceed of 60 EUR/MWh the interconnector has to transfer 1.900 hours per

year surplus energy to earn the annuity for the investment costs (115.000 / 60 =

rd.) conform to 4 GW

Surpluses from Scandinavia: Up to 20 TWh, thereof 10% to 25% exported by

interconnectors will cause proceeds

Additional proceeds for ancillary services have not been taken into account

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© 2012 Prognos AG

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001

Annual hours

GW

1,900 h

5 TWh

The economic efficiency estimation based on the

evaluation of surpluses

Surplus in 2050

24

Quelle: Own presentation of Prognos AG

© 2012 Prognos AG

Result of the economic efficiency estimation for

interconnectors to Scandinavia

4 GW are economical on the basis of the German surpluses only

If the Scandinavian surpluses are also taken into account, interconnectors with

10 to 15 GW could reach the required full load hours of 1,900

3 GW already exist remaining potential is 7 to12 GW

25


Agenda








© 2012 Prognos AG

Open questions and need for research

Future of the design of the EU electricity market

Modeling of electricity prices with sensitivities, for example with a higher share of

renewables

How will market prices react on new interconnectors?

Competition for Scandinavian hydropower resources

Local provision of ancillary services

Speed of network expansion – especially from north to south

When is the expansion of Scandinavian hydro reservoirs necessary?

Storage roadmap: Which storage facilities will be needed and when?

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© 2012 Prognos AG

Conclusion: Hydropower storage can make an important

contribution to the energy transition

Surplus electricity (2050: 38 TWh), reserve power and ancillary services are the

challenges of the energy transition (electricity)

Hydropower storage is a efficient option to balance supply and demand – also for

some days and weeks. Locally (200 km) it can also supply ancillary services

Today s storage capacities in Scandinavia are 2,300 times bigger than the

German capacities and those of the Alps with the factor of 10

7 to12 GW of new interconnectors between Germany and Scandinavia should be

economic efficiency (estimation of Prognos AG)

Approx. 10 to 20 TWh (26 to 52%) of the German surplus electricity could be used

The storage capacities of the Alps could help until 2020 to store surplus electricity

of PV from southern Germany

Competition and security of supply as well as integration of renewables can be

improved, electricity price peaks would be reduced

International hydropower storages facilities are relevant for the energy transition,

recommended is a step-by-step expansion

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www.prognos.com

We provide orientation. Prognos AG – European Center for Economic Research and Strategy Consulting

29

Project manager: Jens Hobohm

Tel: +49 30 520059-242

E-Mail: [email protected]

Thank you for your attention!

http://www.prognos.com/