silver comet field at paulding northwest...

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SILVER COMET FIELD

AT PAULDING NORTHWEST ATLANTA AIRPORT

Aviation Activity Forecast

This aviation activity forecast is prepared in conjunction with the Environmental Assessment (“EA”)

being conducted to assess the potential effects associated with the proposed Part 139 certification and

other airport improvement projects at Silver Comet Field at the Paulding Northwest Atlanta Airport (the

“Airport” or “KPUJ”). The Airport is currently a public use, general aviation airport located 24 miles

northwest of Atlanta. It officially opened in late 2008 with a 5,505 foot runway, the culmination of

construction that began in mid-2006. Its 23,000 square foot state-of-the-art terminal building was

completed in late 2010. The terminal facility has only a single boarding gate, and Paulding County has

no plans to expand the facility. The Airport is co-sponsored by the Paulding County Board of

Commissioners and the Paulding County Airport Authority (PCAA). The Airport sustained significant

damage in a March, 2012 EF-3 tornado. The terminal sustained roof and window damage. A set of T-

hangars was destroyed, and 18 of the 23 aircraft based at the Airport were destroyed. Repairs to the

hangar and terminal were completed in the Fall of 2012. In addition to the Part 139 project, the airport

improvement projects involve, among other things, extending the runway and widening the taxiway.

In October, 2013 the Airport entered into an agreement with Propeller Investments to manage and market

the terminal building. Propeller Investments has initiated talks with carriers regarding potential

commercial flights at the Airport. The company is also pursuing the development of aviation-related

businesses adjacent to, but not on, the Airport. The types of business being considered include

maintenance/repair/overhaul enterprises, completion centers, and small businesses engaged in aviation

and aerospace activities.

The forecasts of aviation activity developed in this document will be used as input to the EA. Forecasts

will be presented for the current year, 2014, the year in which the proposed projects will be implemented,

2015, and for five years after implementation, 2020, consistent with other recent EA’s involving FAA

Part 139 certification1.

1 See, for example, Final Environmental Assessment for Snohomish County Airport, Paine Field, September 2012.

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Data for this analysis were obtained from several sources. Primary data sources providing information

on aircraft and operations activity at the Airport were referenced. Socioeconomic data on Paulding

County, the State of Georgia and the United States were analyzed. Among the primary sources for Airport

activity and socioeconomic data were:

2014 FAA Terminal Area Forecast (FAA TAF)

FAA Enhanced Traffic Management System Counts (ETMSC)

GCR, Inc.

Airport Fixed Base Operator (FBO), Paulding Jet Center

Woods & Poole Economics

Conversations were also conducted with representatives from numerous entities in order to obtain

information on the history, plans for, and expectations of the Airport. These contacts provided insight

and data for the analysis. Among these entities were:

Airport Director Paulding County Airport Authority (PCAA)

Airport FBO Hawk Aviation Flight School

Owners of Airport based aircraft Paulding Economic Development

Propeller Investments LLC Paulding Chamber of Commerce

FAA Southern Region Paulding Aerospace Alliance

Airport Military Liaison Allegiant Air

1.0 Silver Comet Field at Paulding Northwest Atlanta Airport

The Airport has a 5,505 foot runway. One of the airport improvement projects considered in the EA is

to increase the runway length to 6,005 feet. There is a 23,000 square foot terminal for general aviation

and commercial service, a canopy for passenger drop off, easy ramp access, a single boarding gate, and

large open meeting rooms. The Airport has over 360,000 square feet of concrete ramp space, with hangars

and tie downs for all size general aviation aircraft that might operate at KPUJ. All of the hangar facilities

are new, given that the Airport opened in 2008 and many facilities were rebuilt after the 2012 tornado.

The fixed base operator (FBO), Paulding Jet Center, offers fueling services, and courtesy services such

as rental cars, limousine service, catering and valet service. The FBO maintains low fuel prices relative

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to other airports in the area which attracts activity to the airport. Flight planning and weather reports are

available.

There are several other general aviation airports within 40 miles of KPUJ. These are listed in Table 1.1.

Table 1.1

Other General Aviation Facilities Near

Silver Comet Field at Paulding Northwest Atlanta Airport

Airport Code Miles

from

KPUJ1

Longest

Runway2

Tower2 Based

Aircraft2

Annual

Operations2

Paulding Northwest Atlanta Airport KPUJ - 5,505 ft. x 100 ft. No 14 10,000

Cartersville Airport KVPC 15 5,760 ft. x 100 ft. No 146 50,500

Cobb County McCollum Field KRYY 21 6,295 ft. x 100 ft. Yes 146 62,063

Fulton County Airport KFTY 25 5,797 ft. x 100 ft. Yes 101 50,291

DeKalb-Peachtree Airport KPDK 39 6,001 ft. x 100 ft. Yes 426 146,146

Source: 1. MapQuest

2. www.airnav.com

Owners/operators of based general aviation aircraft at KPUJ identified several factors that attract them

there rather than to other airports in the area; location, no congestion (ground traffic, air space, runways),

brand new and well-built facilities, instrument landing system (ILS), ability to have unshared hangar

space, lower fuel prices, lower hangar rates, and a close-knit community atmosphere.

The lack of airspace congestion and the availability of ILS also attract training activity from flight schools

and flying clubs in the area. Flying clubs from Georgia Tech and Lockheed Martin use the facility for

training as do flying schools from the nearby airports.

Other general aviation airports are not seen as competitors likely to draw activity away from KPUJ in the

near future because many of the factors identified as positive for KPUJ (no congestion, lower fees, newer

facilities) will not decline over that time, and those identified as negatives at other facilities (congestion,

higher fees, older facilities) are not likely to improve sufficiently.

2.0 Area Socioeconomics

Paulding County is one of the fastest growing counties in Georgia in terms of population, employment

and total income. The PCAA has partnered with Paulding Economic Development, the Paulding

Chamber of Commerce and the Paulding Aerospace Alliance to pursue economic development around

http://www.airnav.com/

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the Airport that will bring jobs to the area to improve employment opportunities and the tax base in the

county. Currently, according to the U. S. Census Bureau- 2010 County-To-County Worker Flow Files,

only 26% of the employed residents of Paulding County work in Paulding County. All others commute

to surrounding counties for employment.

Historical and forecast growth in population, employment, total personal income and per capita personal

income are presented in Exhibits 2.1 and 2.2. Exhibit 2.1 presents historical growth rates from 2000-

2014 for these four socioeconomic variables for the United States (US), the state of Georgia (GA) and

for Paulding County (PC). For all four variables, growth in Paulding County has far outpaced growth in

the nation and in the state. Exhibit 2.2 presents the forecast for growth in these socioeconomic variables

from 2014 through 2020. Forecast growth for all variables through 2020 is slower than historical growth.

Paulding County’s forecast growth continues to exceed that of the nation and the state in population,

employment and total income, although its growth in per capita personal income falls below the US and

Georgia in the forecast period.

Source: Woods & Poole Economics

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

Population Employment Total Income Per Capita Income

Exhibit 2.1United States (US), Georgia (GA), Paulding County (PC)

Historical Average Annual Growth Rates 2000-2014

US

GA

PC

US US

US

USGA

PC

GA

PC

GA

PC

GAPC

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Source: Woods & Poole Economics

3.0 Commercial Service

In the 1990-2001 period, most of the major carriers in the U.S. had a philosophy that in order to be

successful it was necessary to maintain a presence in as many airports as possible, serving O’Hare,

Midway and even Rockford, IL for Chicago; Houston Intercontinental and Houston Hobby; as many

airports as possible in the Los Angeles region; San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose in northern

California; and Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport, Washington Dulles International Airport,

and Baltimore/Washington International Airport for the Washington, D.C./Baltimore metropolitan area.

After 2001 and the passenger slow-down that occurred throughout the mid-2000s in the aftermath of 9/11,

and the economic recession of 2008/2009, many major carriers were compelled to restructure through

bankruptcy and/or mergers (e.g., Delta, Northwest (now merged with Delta), American and US Airways

(now merged), United (now merged with Continental) and Southwest now with Air Tran). As a result of

the restructuring the carriers’ operations were drastically reshaped and their respective route structures

underwent dramatic rationalization, eliminating duplicative hubs (such as Memphis, Cincinnati, and

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

Population Employment Total Income Per Capita Income

Exhibit 2.2United States (US), Georgia (GA), Paulding County (PC)

Forecast Average Annual Growth Rates 2014-2020

US

GA

PC

GA

PC

US

USGA

PC

US

GA

PC

US GA

PC

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Cleveland), reducing aircraft capacity, and significantly reducing duplicative services in multi-airport

cities.

The majors also reduced their regional service to many smaller communities. That left many smaller

airports that had upgraded their facilities to accommodate the upsurge in service in the 1990s without the

travel options they had briefly enjoyed. The reduction in capacity results in fewer low-fare seats available

on legacy airline flights.

This has opened opportunities for low cost and ultra-low cost carriers (“LCCs”) with different business

models to serve communities not served, poorly served, or otherwise abandoned by the legacy airlines.

These LCCs often focus on linking smaller secondary communities to vacation destinations with less than

daily service. This is the type of service that is attracted to airports similar to KPUJ. Allegiant is an

example of an LCC that has chosen this path. LCCs such as Frontier and Spirit also offer service at

secondary airports.

Propeller Investments has approached several commercial scheduled air service providers regarding their

interest in providing some commercial service at the Airport. Thus far, only one carrier has expressed

interest in providing such service-- Allegiant Air. Allegiant Air stated in a “letter of intent” provided to

the Airport that if the Airport can acquire an Airport Operating Certificate from the FAA, as required for

commercial service under 14 CFR Part 139, it would consider offering two scheduled round trip flights

each week between Paulding and Sanford International Airport, a secondary airport located

approximately 25 miles north of Orlando, FL. Allegiant Air offers a unique point-to-point, often less-

than-daily, leisure oriented product that is very different from that of legacy airlines such as Delta, United,

American or Southwest Airlines.

3.1 Likely Paulding County Service Model

Allegiant Air serves approximately 100 cities. About 10 of these cities are vacation destinations

such as Orlando/Sanford, Tampa/St. Petersburg, Fort Meyers/Punta Gorda, Las Vegas, Myrtle

Beach, and Phoenix/Mesa. In most cases the service is offered to these vacation destinations from

small airports (like KPUJ) where there is little or no competitive scheduled service. The flights are

all point-to-point (non-stop), with no connecting service offered. In the approximately 85-90 cities

that are not Allegiant’s vacation destination points, the carrier offers a service pattern that is well

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below daily frequency. Of the 90 non-vacation destination points contained in Allegiant’s current

schedule, the service frequencies were found to be as presented in Table 3.1. In 56 of these 90

cities, Allegiant offers fewer than 7 departures per week, or less than daily service.

Table 3.1

ALLEGIANT

Avg. Depts. Per Week

# of Depts. # of Cities

0-2 26

3 3

4 14

5 2

6 11

7 3

>7-14 26

>14-21 4

>21 1 Source: Allegiant Air Schedules –

May-June 2014

Allegiant’s proposal to offer twice weekly service at the Airport is generally consistent with the

way in which it serves other similarly situated non-vacation destinations.

Another facet of the business model of this new breed of LCC air carriers is their route structures.

For example, all of its aircraft and crew members fly out from and return to the base airport each

day and it over-nights its aircraft and crews only at 10 destination cities. This relieves the carrier

of providing hotel and food costs for over-nighting crew members, and it minimizes the aircraft

maintenance and support infrastructure it requires for its fleet. This route structure also limits the

number of destinations which can be served out of a given city. A destination has to be within the

non-stop range of the aircraft, and the flight time has to be short enough that the aircraft can travel

to and from the destination point in one day. So, for example, Allegiant does not serve Phoenix

from its eastern cities because the timing for a Phoenix-East Coast-Phoenix routing would not

provide for convenient arrival and departure times and enable the aircraft and crew to complete the

round trip in a timely fashion in one day.

This type of low fare point to point service appeals primarily to leisure travelers. .

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3.2 Commercial Service Forecasts

For purposes of this forecast, LCC service between Paulding County and Sanford International

Airport is assumed to begin in March of 2015. Our commercial service forecast evaluates three

different service scenarios: a low, a medium and a high service forecast.

The Low Forecast involves the situation where no commercial air service operates at KPUJ.

The Medium Forecast assumes service levels based on Allegiant’s letter of intent and input, i.e.,

twice weekly service between KPUJ and Orlando/Sanford, increasing to four times weekly by

2020.

The High Forecast assumes that Allegiant increases KPUJ service to other destinations and/or

other LCC carriers commence service between KPUJ and new destinations with total scheduled

commercial air service at the Airport reaching 10 weekly departures, supplemented by occasional

charters.

The Medium Forecast is viewed as the most likely forecast based on Allegiant’s letter of intent,

its input for this EA, and its historical performance at other small destinations similar to Paulding.

If the Airport receives Part 139 certification in the first quarter of 2015, it is assumed that Allegiant

would commence service between the Airport and Orlando/Sanford with two roundtrip flights per

week in March 2015 (which would be 44 weeks of service in 2015). This equates to 4 operations

(two arrivals and two departures) per week, and 176 commercial operations per year. Initially, and

consistent with Allegiant’s typical strategy in new, untested markets, it is unlikely that more service

than this will be offered as the market is tested and a passenger base is built up. Assuming that this

service generates the response required to fill 90% of the seats, it is assumed that, by 2020, a carrier

such as Allegiant Air would add 2 more departures per week, possibly increasing service to

Orlando/Sanford or providing service to another vacation destination such Tampa/ St. Petersburg

or Ft. Meyers/Punta Gorda. Most of Allegiant’s non-vacation destinations receive less than daily

service. Given the service patterns observed in other places served by Allegiant, it is unlikely that

service will exceed such a level at Paulding County.

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According to its web site, Allegiant Air has a fleet of 52 McDonnell Douglas MD-80 series aircraft,

6 B-757s, 3 Airbus A-319s and 7 Airbus A-320s. The Airport cannot accommodate the weight of

a fully loaded B-757. Moreover, Allegiant has informed the Airport that its MD-80 series aircraft

do not have the requisite equipment for GPS-enabled approaches such as that offered by Runway

13 at KPUJ, and thus the carrier indicated that it would not operate that aircraft at the Airport.

Accordingly, the forecast assumes that Allegiant would operate a combination of A-319 and A-320

aircraft. The A319 has 156 seats and the A320 has 177 seats. Assuming a 90% load factor based

on Allegiant’s experience, Allegiant’s service would generate the operations and passengers

presented in Table 3.2

Table 3.2

Medium Forecast

Total Annual Commercial Passengers and Operations

Equipment

Commercial

Departures

Seats Per

Departure

Departing

Passengers

@ 90%

Load Factor

Total

Commercial

Operations

Departing

+ Arriving

Passengers

2015

A319 44 156 6,178 88 12,356

A320 44 177 7,009 88 14,018

Total 88 13,187 176 26,374

2020

A319 104 156 14,602 208 29,204

A320 104 177 16,568 208 33,136

Total 208 31,170 416 62,340

The High Forecast assumes that Allegiant might, within the 5-year horizon of the forecast, provide

service to additional destinations. This forecast also assumes that other LCC carriers, such as

Frontier, Spirit, or a charter operator might consider providing service at KPUJ. The High

Forecast also assumes that legacy carriers, such as Delta, American or United, would not be

offering service at KPUJ. These assumptions are explained below.

Allegiant serves 1-3 vacation points from over 65 of the cities it serves. So, it is possible that

service to destinations besides Orlando/Sanford could be added at KPUJ.

Frontier is an ultra-low cost carrier which serves approximately 75 destinations. Unlike Allegiant,

Frontier does not routinely seek out secondary airports near larger airports at which to provide

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service to vacation destinations. Virtually all of the small cities served by Frontier are cities located

some distance from large air service airports, and Frontier provides service from these remote

destinations to its hubs/focus cities, such as Denver, Cleveland, Washington-Dulles, Trenton-

Mercer in New Jersey, and Wilmington-Philadelphia in Delaware. Since Frontier serves ATL

(service to Denver, Chicago, Cleveland, Trenton, Wilmington and Orlando) it is unlikely that it

would duplicate that service at KPUJ. Frontier’s investment in service at Trenton and Wilmington

evolved because those are convenient airports with excellent highway access – Trenton is located

1mile from and with two exits off of Interstate 95, Wilmington is located 1 mile from Interstate 95

– and ample parking. The carrier established service to numerous destinations from these airports

so that customers find them convenient for a wide range of travel. KPUJ is over 20 miles from the

nearest interstate highway. It will offer only 200 parking spaces by 2015 and through 2020. It is

unlikely to support development of service to numerous points. These factors would not meet

Frontier’s convenience standards so it is unlikely that the carrier would launch significant service

at KPUJ. However, the High Forecast allows for the possibility that Frontier might consider

service to one or two points from KPUJ.

Spirit Airlines is an ultra-low cost carrier serving approximately 30 cities in the United States.

Spirit provides service at primary airports and also at secondary airports nearby major airports such

as:

Arnold Palmer Regional Airport in Latrobe, PA, 62 mile east of Pittsburgh International

Airport; to Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, Fort Meyers, Tampa and Myrtle Beach

Niagara Falls International Airport, 27 miles from Buffalo Niagara International Airport; to

Myrtle Beach and Fort Lauderdale

Plattsburgh International Airport in Plattsburgh, NY, 71 miles from Montreal, Canada; to

Myrtle Beach and Fort Lauderdale

Spirit might consider providing service at KPUJ to vacation destinations not served by Allegiant.

A charter carrier might also consider offering service at KPUJ in the High Forecast. An operator

such as Caesar’s might consider serving Atlantic City, Tunica or Branson, for example. Such an

operator might offer 2 flights per month on equipment such as the Embraer EMB-190, which has

100 seats.

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We do not believe that there is a high likelihood that any legacy carriers would serve KPUJ for

several reasons. First, no legacy carriers have indicated any such interest to the Airport. Second,

the Airport is facility-constrained, with only one gate and no plans to add more gates. Third, all

legacy carriers currently operate to Atlanta Hartsfield International Airport, and the costs of dual

operations would likely not justify the limited benefits. Fourth, when Allegiant has commenced

operations at a small airport (similar to KPUJ) near a legacy carrier’s hub airport, the legacy carrier

has typically not responded by adding service to the small airport. Table 3.3 provides examples of

secondary airports where LLC carriers provide service in proximity to the hubs of various legacy

carriers, and those legacy carriers have chosen not to respond with competitive service at the

smaller airport:

Table 3.3

Airports Near Hubs Where Legacy Carriers Do Not Compete

LLC Carriers Serve Airports in: Miles from Hub Hub Hub Carrier

Concord, NC 21 CLT US

Wilmington-Philadelphia, DE 27 PHL US

Mesa, AZ 30 PHX US

Ogden, UT 39 SLC DL

Trenton, NJ 43 PHL US

Provo, UT 50 SLC DL

Trenton, NJ 50 EWR UA

The High Forecast also takes into account the availability of parking at the Airport. The Airport

currently has 112 parking spaces, and planned expansion will increase available parking to 200

spaces by 2020. The following assumptions about aircraft, load factor, and tourist customer travel

behaviors lead to a calculation that KPUJ’s parking capacity can accommodate 11 weekly

passenger departures by 2020.

Table 3.4

Parking Capacity for Commercial Passenger Activity

Average Seats/Departure 165

Passenger Load Factor 90%

Passengers/Departure 149

Passengers/Car 4

Length of Trip (Days) 4

Percent of Travelers’ Cars Parking at KPUJ 75%

Parking Space Days Needed/Departure 111

Required Parking Spaces/Week for 11 Departures/Week 1,225

Available Parking Spaces /Day 200

Available Parking Space Days/Week 1,400

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The High Forecast for potential commercial passenger service at KPUJ is presented in Table 3.5.

There will be no incremental commercial passenger activity in 2015 in the High Forecast beyond

what is projected in the Medium Forecast. Allegiant will use its experience in 2015 to determine

whether or not incremental service can be supported at KPUJ. Other carriers will watch the

passenger traffic response to Allegiant’s service in 2015 and plan for any potential entry into the

market after 2015.

Table 3.5

High Forecast

Total Annual Commercial Passengers and Operations

Equipment

Commercial

Departures

Seats Per

Departure

Departing

Passengers

@ 90%

Load Factor

Total

Commercial

Operations

Departing

+ Arriving

Passengers

2015

A319 44 156 6,178 88 12,356

A320 44 177 7,009 88 14,018

Total 88 13,187 176 26,374

2020

A319 520 156 73,008 1040 146,016

A320 520 177 82,837 1040 165,674

EMB-190 24 100 2,161 48 4,322

Total 1,064 158,006 2,128 316,012

Our commercial activity forecasts also considered freight operations but, for several reasons, we do not

believe that the completion of the proposed projects at the Airport would result in freight operations. The

Airport simply cannot support large freighter aircraft given the facilities and runway/taxiway weight

constraints. In addition, there is an insufficient roadway network to/from and at the Airport to handle

freight-related truck operations. Freight shippers also typically desire to have their intermodal transfer

points (e.g., from aircraft to truck) near major highways and interstates in order to facilitate and speed

delivery. In this case, KPUJ is not on any such major highway or interstate.

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4.0 General Aviation Operations and Based Aircraft

General aviation activity in the United States is very sensitive to a number of factors. In the 1980s there

was a rash of general aviation accidents on old aircraft after which victims sued the aircraft manufactures

even though the aircraft in question were quite old. As a result of these suits, manufacturers reduced their

production levels, and shipments of new general aviation aircraft declined significantly. In 1994 the

General Aviation Revitalization Act was signed into law. This Act established an 18-year Statute of

Repose on all general aviation aircraft and components. This removed the extended liability onus from

the manufactures and encouraged increased production of general aviation aircraft. After the terrorist

attacks of September 2001, general aviation activity was severely restricted and activity levels again

declined. The economic crisis of 2008 and high fuel costs have further reduced general aviation activity

in recent years.

4.1 Operations

A graphic depiction of the historical levels of general aviation activity in the United States and in

the state of Georgia is presented in Exhibit 4.1.

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In Exhibit 4.1 the left vertical axis measures total United States general aviation operations. The

right vertical axis measures general aviation operations for the state of Georgia. Actual levels are

presented from 1990 through 2012, and forecast levels are presented from 2013 through 2040. The

historical trends of general aviation activity in Georgia generally follow those of the United States.

In the forecast, the FAA projects average annual growth in general aviation operations of 0.3

percent per year in the United States from 2012 through 2020, and only 0.006 percent per year in

the state of Georgia over that period.

There is currently no tower at Paulding Northwest Atlanta Airport. Therefore, actual levels of

operations are not accurately recorded on a routine basis. Given that the Airport has been active

for less than six years, and given that the facility was severely impacted by a tornado in 2012,

0

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100,000,0001

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Exhibit 4.12014 FAA TAF Historical and Forecast

US and Georgia General Aviation Operations

Historical US Ops

Forecast US Ops

Historical Georgia Ops

Forecast Georgia Ops

Georgia Operations

US Operations

Source: 2014 FAA TAF; Itinerant and local general aviation, military, civil operations

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historical data on operations is not readily available. In an attempt to project activity at the airport

using a statistical approach, analyses were done on United States and Georgia general aviation

activity to use as a surrogate. Trends in US and Georgia activity were compared to national and

state trends in growth in population, total personal income, employment and per capita personal

income in order to establish some statistical relationships. No valid statistical relationships could

be established.

Activity at the four nearby airports was also reviewed. This data is presented in Table 4.1.

Table 4.1

Forecast Average Annual Growth in General Aviation Activity at

Airports Nearby Paulding Northwest Atlanta Airport

Airports

2012

2020

Average

Annual

Growth

Cartersville Airport 45,500 45,500 0.00%

Cobb County McCollum Field 59,725 62,683 0.61%

Fulton County Airport 46,734 45,871 (0.23)%

DeKalb-Peachtree Airport 132,102 129,843 (0.22)%

Source: 2014 FAA TAF

The FAA expects activity at Cartersville to remain stagnant, and projects a decline in activity at

Fulton County and DeKalb-Peachtree Airports. Only Cobb County is forecast to see increased

activity according to the FAA TAF forecast.

KPUJ has newly built facilities, no congestion, lower fees for hangar space and fuel than nearby

airports, and a staff and partnerships actively pursuing development at and around the Airport.

Also, population, total income and employment in Paulding County are projected to grow at rates

higher than the State and nation over the forecast period. Given these factors, it seems likely that

the Airport will experience some growth over the next several years. Therefore, total general

aviation operations at the Airport are forecast to grow at the same rate annually through 2020 as

the forecast for operations in the United States.

Military operations at the Airport consist primarily of training operations using UH-60 Sikorsky

Black Hawk helicopters. These training operations involve several areas such as:

Bucket training, which is training to scoop buckets of water from lakes to use in

battling fires

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External load training, which is training to pick up and drop off large loads such as

pallets of foodstuffs, tanks, or other equipment in the field

Hoist training, which is training to lift and transport stretchers carrying personnel for

medical evacuation operations

This activity occurs sporadically during the year and military liaison staff saw no indication that it

would increase or decrease over the forecast period.

Current levels of Airport activity were taken from the 2014 FAA TAF. Airport staff, the FBO and

the instructor from the Airport flight school contributed to discussions on the split of general

aviation activity between itinerant and local operations. An itinerant operation is one whose arrival

or departure occurs beyond the airspace of the Airport. A local operation is one for which both the

arrival and departure occur at the Airport without ever leaving the Airport’s airspace, such as a

touch and go operation. Those knowledgeable about operations at KPUJ agree that local, civil,

training-type operations comprise 45 percent of total general aviation operations. Military

operations are split 80 percent local training operations and 20 percent itinerant as the aircraft arrive

at and depart from the Airport for these training exercises.

The results of the general aviation operations activity forecasts are presented in Table 4.2.

2014 estimated from FAA TAF and conversations with Airport representatives.

The level of general aviation activity is not expected to change because of any commercial passenger

activity at KPUJ. Therefore, the general aviation activity forecast is the same for the low, medium and

high forecasts.

Table 4.2

Total Airport General Aviation Operations

2014 2015 2020

Itinerant

Civil 5,020 5,041 5,147

Military 100 100 100

Total Itinerant 5,120 5,141 5,247

Local

Civil 4,517 4,533 4,620

Military 400 400 400

Total Local 4,917 4,933 5,020

Total General

Aviation Operations

10,037 10,074 10,267

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4.2 Based Aircraft

Prior to the 2012 tornado there were 23 general aviation aircraft based at the Airport, including one

small jet. Eighteen of these aircraft were totally destroyed in the tornado. Currently, there are 14

general aviation aircraft based at the Airport. One of the aircraft is a twin engine piston aircraft,

and all of the others are single-engine pistons. The 2014 FAA TAF assumed that there would be

no change in the number of based aircraft at the Airport throughout the forecast period. For this

analysis the annual growth rate of based aircraft in the United States was applied to the current

based aircraft level at the Airport. This generated one incremental aircraft based there by 2020.

That incremental aircraft is assumed to be a Cessna 172, of which 4 are currently based at KPUJ.

The number and fleet mix of the based aircraft are presented in Table 4.3.

Table 4.3

Based Aircraft Aircraft Type Code 2014 2015 2020

Aero Commander 100 Darter VO10 1 1 1

Beech Craft Bonanza V35 B35 1 1 1

Bellanca Super Viking BL17 1 1 1

Cessna 172 C172 4 4 5

Cessna 182 C182 1 1 1

Cessna 210 C210 1 1 1

Cessna 310 C310 1 1 1

Decathlon 8KCAB 1 1 1

Mooney M20 1 1 1

PA 32 PA32 2 2 2

Total 14 14 15

5.0 Fleet Mix

As presented in Tables 3.2 and 3.5, commercial operations are expected to be split between A319 and

A320 aircraft, with some EMB-190 operations by 2020. Although Allegiant operates MD-80 aircraft, we

were advised that Allegiant would not serve the Airport with that aircraft type.

The general aviation fleet mix forecast was developed separately for itinerant operations and local

operations. An attempt was made to access the FAA ETMSC data, which contains records on aircraft

operations for which a flight plan has been filed. These records provide information on equipment type,

date and time of operation. ETMSC data was not available for KPUJ. Therefore, data from GCR, Inc.

was obtained for use in the fleet mix analysis. This data is obtained from FAA from the same sources

that feed the FAA ETMSC.

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GCR, Inc. data contains records on activity at the Airport from February 2009 through December 2013.

This data represented approximately 6.5 percent of all itinerant operations estimated by the Airport over

that period of time. The fleet mix represented by the GCR, Inc. data was used to forecast the fleet mix

for 6.5 percent of the itinerant operations forecast for the Airport. The fleet mix for the remaining itinerant

operations in the forecast was estimated using the fleet mix of the based aircraft at the Airport.

The fleet mix for local operations was developed using a different method. The local operations represent

training operations. As discussed earlier in this report, training operations at the Airport are conducted

by aircraft from flight schools at surrounding airports and by flying clubs at Georgia Tech and Lockheed

Martin. Therefore, the mix of aircraft types at these flight schools and in these flying clubs was analyzed

to determine a fleet mix for the local operations at the Airport. Also, conversations with the FBO

indicated that there is occasionally local small jet training at KPUJ, approximately 5 percent of all training

activity there.

Master plan forecasts require an understanding of fleet mix based on the number and type of engines of

the aircraft operating at the airport. Planning for facilities such as runways and taxiways requires an

understanding of the operations fleet mix based on Airport Reference Codes (ARC), which classify the

dimensions and approach speed of the aircraft in the forecast. The forecast of operations for the Airport

is presented in both of these categorizations to maximize the potential use of the forecast. Table 5.1

presents the operations fleet mix by number and type of engines. Table 5.2 presents the operations fleet

mix by ARC.

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Table 5.1

Operations Fleet Mix

By Number and Type of Engines

Table 5.2

Operations Fleet Mix By

Airport Reference Code (ARC)

LOW FORECAST LOW FORECAST

Equip. Type 2014 2015 2020 ARC 2014 2015 2020

Single-Piston 8,363 8,396 8,565 A-1 8,963 8,998 9,180

Multi-Piston 834 837 854 A-ll 1 1 1

Single-Turbo 22 22 23 B-1 513 515 525

Multi-Turbo 29 29 30 B-ll 55 55 57

Jet 289 290 296 C-ll 5 5 5

Helicopter 500 500 500 C-III 0 0 0

Helicopter 500 500 500

Total 10,037 10,074 10,267 Total 10,037 10,074 10,267

MEDIUM FORECAST MEDIUM FORECAST

Equip. Type 2014 2015 2020 ARC 2014 2015 2020

Single-Piston 8,363 8,396 8,565 A-1 8,963 8,998 9,180


Single-Turbo 22 22 23 B-1 513 515 525

Multi-Turbo 29 29 30 B-ll 55 55 57

Jet 289 466 712 C-ll 5 5 5

Helicopter 500 500 500 C-III 0 176 416


Total 10,037 10,250 10,683 Total 10,037 10,250 10,683

HIGH FORECAST HIGH FORECAST Equip. Type 2014 2015 2020 ARC 2014 2015 2020

Single-Piston 8,363 8,396 8,565 A-1 8,963 8,998 9,180


Single-Turbo 22 22 23 B-1 513 515 525

Multi-Turbo 29 29 30 B-ll 55 55 57

Jet 289 466 2,424 C-ll 5 5 5

Helicopter 500 500 500 C-III 0 176 2,128


Total 10,037 10,250 12,395 Total 10,037 10,250 12,395 Totals may not add due to rounding. Totals may not add due to rounding.

The fleet mix presentation in this report is also grouped according to FAA Integrated Noise Model

equipment types. This categorization of equipment is required as input into the Environmental

Assessment analysis for which this forecast is being developed. The Environmental Assessment also

requires a split of operations into daytime and nighttime operations. For the purposes of noise modeling,

the FAA defines daytime operations as those that occur from 7:01 am through 10:00 pm local time.

Nighttime operations are those occurring from 10:01 pm through 7:00 am local time.

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The day/night split of general aviation operations was based upon the information in the GCR, Inc. data,

and input from local based aircraft owners at the Airport and the FBO.

Conversations with airport managers at facilities with commercial service such as that proposed for KPUJ

indicated that night operations occur as a result of schedule delays due to weather, maintenance or

operational issues, and that happens approximately once or twice per month. Commercial passenger

operations are usually scheduled between 7:00 am and 10:00 pm.

Operations by the FAA Integrated Noise Model equipment types, and by daytime and nighttime, are

presented in Table 5.3.

Aircraft Type Noise Code 2014 2015 2020 2014 2015 2020 2014 2015 2020 2014 2015 2020 2014 2015 2020 2014 2015 2020

Air Carrier

Airbus A319 A319-131 88 208 6 10 88 1,040 6 12

Airbus A320 A320-211 88 208 6 10 88 1,040 6 12

EMB-90 EMB190 48

Total 176 416 12 20 176 2,128 12 24

Air Taxi

No Aircraft Assigned

Total

General Aviation Itinerant

Beech Baron, Cessna 310, Piper Seneca, Piper 60-600, Cessna 340, Cessna 414, BEC58P 378 379 387 4 4 4 378 379 387 4 4 4 378 379 387 4 4 4

Cessna Citation CIT3 27 27 27 0 0 0 27 27 27 0 0 0 27 27 27 0 0 0

Bombardier CL-600 CL600 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0

Cessna 152, Cessna 172 Skyhawk, Cessna 175 Skylark, Cessna 177 Cardinal CNA172 1,363 1,368 1,397 16 16 16 1,363 1,368 1,397 16 16 16 1,363 1,368 1,397 16 16 16

Cessna 182 Skylane, Cessna R182 CNA182 354 355 362 4 4 4 354 355 362 4 4 4 354 355 362 4 4 4

Cessna 185 Skywagon, Cessna 210 Centurion, Cessna Riley-Turbine P210 CNA206 354 355 362 4 4 4 354 355 362 4 4 4 354 355 362 4 4 4

Socata TBM 850, Socata TBM 700, Pilatus PC-12 CNA208 15 15 15 0 0 0 15 15 15 0 0 0 15 15 15 0 0 0

PA-31 Navajo, Beech King Air, Beech Super King Air, Cessna 441 Conquest ll CNA441 22 22 23 0 0 0 22 22 23 0 0 0 22 22 23 0 0 0

Cessna Citation CNA500 7 7 7 0 0 0 7 7 7 0 0 0 7 7 7 0 0 0

Cessna Citation Mustang CNA510 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Cessna Citation Jet / CJ Series CNA525C 4 4 4 0 0 0 4 4 4 0 0 0 4 4 4 0 0 0

Cessna Citation V CNA560E 5 5 6 0 0 0 5 5 6 0 0 0 5 5 6 0 0 0

Cessna Citation XL CNA560XL 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0

Cessna Citation Sovereign CNA680 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Douglas DC-3 DC3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

DHC-6-300 TWIN OTTER DH6 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 0

Beech King Air 350, Beech 300 Super King Air DO228 5 5 5 0 0 0 5 5 5 0 0 0 5 5 5 0 0 0

Eclipse 500 ECLIPSE500 13 13 14 0 0 0 13 13 14 0 0 0 13 13 14 0 0 0

Husky A-1C, Piper PA-28 Cherokee, Cessna 675, Beech 23 Musketeer, Beech

24 Musketeer Super, Van's Aircraft RV$ through RV-9-4GASEPF

700 703 718 8 8 8 700 703 718 8 8 8 700 703 718 8 8 8

Rockwell Commander 112, Beech Bonanza, Bellanca Super Viking, Diamond

Star DA-40, Mooney, Piper PA-32R, Piper Cherokee Six, Cirrus SR-20, Cirrus

SR-22, Piper Malibu Meridian

GASEPV

1,760 1,767 1,804 20 20 21 1,760 1,767 1,804 20 20 21 1,760 1,767 1,804 20 20 21

Gulfstream 2 GII 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Learjet 25 LEAR25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Learjet 35A/36A LEAR36 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0

Learjet 45 LEAR45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Learjet 55 LEAR55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Mitsubishi Diamond MU-300 MU3001 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 0

Piper PA-28 Cherokee PA28 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 0

Piper PA-30 PA30 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 0

Beech 2000 Starship SD330 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0

SAAB 340 SF340 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0

Total 5,020 5,041 5,147 58 58 60 5,020 5,041 5,147 58 58 60 5,020 5,041 5,147 58 58 60

General Aviation Local

Cessna Citation CNA500 226 227 231 2 2 2 226 227 231 2 2 2 226 227 231 2 2 2

Beech Baron, Cessna 310 BEC58P 452 453 462 5 5 5 452 453 462 5 5 5 452 453 462 5 5 5

Cessna 152, Cessna 172 Skyhawk, Cessna 175 Skylark, Cessna 177 Cardinal CNA172 3,560 3,574 3,642 36 36 36 3,560 3,574 3,642 36 36 36 3,560 3,574 3,642 36 36 36

Cessna 182 Skylane, Cessna R182 CNA182 93 93 95 1 1 1 93 93 95 1 1 1 93 93 95 1 1 1

Husky A-1C, Piper PA-28 Cherokee, Cessna 675, Beech 23 Musketeer, Beech

24 Musketeer Super, Van's Aircraft RV$ through RV-9-4GASEPF

155 155 158 2 2 2 155 155 158 2 2 2 155 155 158 2 2 2

Rockwell Commander 112, Beech Bonanza, Bellanca Super Viking, Diamond

Star DA-40, Mooney, Piper PA-32R, Piper Cherokee Six, Cirrus SR-20, Cirrus

SR-22, Piper Malibu Meridian

GASEPV

31 31 32 0 0 0 31 31 32 0 0 0 31 31 32 0 0 0

Total 4,517 4,533 4,620 45 45 46 4,517 4,533 4,620 45 45 46 4,517 4,533 4,620 45 45 46

Military Itinerant

UH 60 Black Hawk Helicopter UH60 100 100 100 5 5 5 100 100 100 5 5 5 100 100 100 5 5 5

Total 100 100 100 5 5 5 100 100 100 5 5 5 100 100 100 5 5 5

Military Local

UH 60 Black Hawk Helicopter UH60 400 400 400 4 4 4 400 400 400 4 4 4 400 400 400 4 4 4

Total 400 400 400 4 4 4 400 400 400 4 4 4 400 400 400 4 4 4

Total Annual Operations Total 10,037 10,074 10,267 112 113 115 10,037 10,250 10,683 112 125 135 10,037 10,250 12,395 112 125 139

Totals may not add due to rounding

Table 5.3

Operations by FAA Integrated Noise Model Equipment Types; Daytime & Nighttime Operations

High Forecast

Total Annual Operations Annual Night OperationsAnnual Night Operations

Low Forecast

Total Annual Operations Annual Night Operations

Medium Forcast

Total Annual Operations

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