simi done deal q1 motor industry review 2015

WELCOME

WELCOME

SIMI
Q1 Motor Industry ReviewIn association with DoneDeal

23rdApril2015

Q12015
Review
Explained

Jim PowerReview Author & Economist

SIMI/DoneDealMotor Industry Review Q1 2015JimPowerApril 2015The Global Background

US economy doing well

UK economy doing well

Euro Zone growing, but at very weak pace

BRICs 3 in difficulty

ECB has launched quantitative easing 1.1TnMarch 2015-Sept 2016 ~ impact will be limited, but necessary step

Some pressure on US & UK interest rates later in 2015 no pressure whatsoever on ECB

Key issues in Euro Zone Sovereign Debt, Unemployment & Deflationary Forces

Greek situation will fester

Euro weakness a key theme

Brent Crude Oil Price

STERLING V EURO

Ireland GDP (%YoY)

EconomicActivity 2014

Unemployment Rate

Employment (S/A)

Consumer Confidence

Economic Forecasts

Key Economic Risks/Challenges

Economy making real progress, but challenges remain

Euro Zone fragility - Greece

Government debt levels high

High levels of Personal & SME debt

Housing market imbalances in Dublin

Restoring a functioning banking sector some progress

Personal sector still pressurised

Wage pressures

Political developments ~ stability/poor economic policies?

Economy is moving in right direction

The Motor Industry in 2014

New private cars registered +29.5%

Light Commercial Vehicles +51.3%

Heavy Goods Vehicles +14.9%

Every county reported good growth in new car registrations

Costs of motoring : Year to December: Petrol -7.5%, Diesel -9.6%, Insurance +11.6%, New Car price -2.4%

Petrol -16.5% from peak: Diesel -16.8% from peak

Making stronger contribution to Exchequer 965 m +26.6%

The Motor Industry Q1 2015

New private cars registered +29.68%

Light Commercial Vehiclesregistered+58.6%

Heavy Goods Vehicles-20.7%

Every county reported good growth in new car registrations

Costs of motoring : Year toMarch:Petrol-10.9%,Diesel-11.8%,Insurance +14%,New Car price -2.5%

Petrol -19.9%from peak: Diesel -19.4%frompeak; New Car -21.3% from Peak: Insurance +19.2% past 2 years

Making stronger contribution to Exchequer574m +26.5% (VAT + VRT)

Monthly Registrations

Cars Licensed

EXCHEQUER REVENUES FROM MOTOR INDUSTRY Q1 2015

Employment

Cost of Motoring

Key Drivers of New Car Market

Personal disposable incomes

PersonalConsumption

Interest Rates

Unemployment

Population >15Years

Credit availability

Car Sales in Previous Years

One-off events e.g.: CarScrappageScheme, Y2000etc

New Car Registrations

Auto Market in 2015 & 2016

123,000 possible in 2015

Consumer confidence strong

Credit availability good

Interest rates to remain very low

Labour market improving

Stronger consumer spending

Limited fiscal easing in Budget 2015, more in Budget 2016

145,000 in 2016?

Volume ofDoneDealMotor Ads

DoneDealAds Petrol v Diesel

Motor carsPetrolDieselMotor car insurance

(000s)Series1

Q3 98Q4 98Q1 99Q2 99Q3 99Q4 99Q1 00Q2 00Q3 00Q4 00Q1 01Q2 01Q3 01Q4 01Q1 02Q2 02Q3 02Q4 02Q1 03Q2 03Q3 03Q403Q1 04Q2 04Q3 04Q4 04Q1 05Q2 05Q3 05Q4 05Q1 06Q2 06Q3 06Q4 06Q1 07Q2 07Q3 07Q4 07Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 08Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 09Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 10Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 11Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 12Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4 13Q1 14Q2 14Q3 14Q4 14

Series1

2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015f2016f

CARSMOTOR-EXCL. CARS

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PetrolDiesel

NEW CARS (%)IMPORTED CARS (%)

199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014Q1 2015

2012201320142015

JanFebMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDec

Series1

$Series1

%Series1

198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015f2016f

%Series1

Series1

(000s)Series1Series2

2004Q12004Q22004Q32004Q42005Q12005Q22005Q32005Q42006Q12006Q22006Q32006Q42007Q12007Q22007Q32007Q42008Q12008Q22008Q32008Q42009Q12009Q22009Q32009Q42010Q12010Q22010Q32010Q42011Q12011Q22011Q32011Q42012Q12012Q22012Q32012Q42013Q12013Q22013Q32013Q42014Q12014Q22014Q32014 Q4

simi done deal q1 motor industry review 2015

Automotive