simi/donedeal q2 motor industry review presentation july 2016
TRANSCRIPT
SIMIQ2 Motor Industry ReviewIn association with DoneDeal
21st July 2016
WelcomeAddress
Alan Nolan Director General SIMI
SIMI/DoneDeal Motor Industry Review Q2 2016
Jim Power Author & Economist
The Irish Economy in 2016
• GDP +26.3% 2015!!!!!!!2016
• Q1 GDP +2.3% (YoY): Consumption +5%; Exports +1.3%
• Retail Sales (Jan-May) Volume +7.9%; Value +5.6%• Tax Revenues +9.2% (YoY) €742 m ahead of profile• Unemployment Rate 7.8%• Good solid momentum
Consumer Confidence
Feb-96
Aug-96
Feb-97
Aug-97
Feb-98
Aug-98
Feb-99
Aug-99
Feb-00
Aug-00
Feb-01
Aug-01
Feb-02
Aug-02
Feb-03
Aug-03
Feb-04
Aug-04
Feb-05
Aug-05
Feb-06
Aug-06
Feb-07
Aug-07
Feb-08
Aug-08
Feb-09
Aug-09
Feb-10
Aug-10
Feb-11
Aug-11
Feb-12
Aug-12
Feb-13
Aug-13
Feb-14
Aug-14
Feb-15
Aug-15
Feb-160.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Motor Trade H1
• New Car Registrations 101,335: +23.07%• Roscommon +37.9%; Leitrim +14.5%• Used Car Imports 32,285; +27.7%• Light Commercial Vehicles 18,409; +25.6%• Heavy Commercial Vehicles 1,789; +42%
Car Sales in 20162015 2016 % CHANGE
Jan 29,808 39,722 +33.3%
Feb 15,778 21,574 +36.7%
March 18,933 21,531 +13.7%
Q1 64,519 82,827 +28.4%
April 9,451 10,382 +9.85%
May 6,919 6,502 -6.03%
June 1,448 1,624 +12.2%
Q2 17,818 18,508 +3.88%
Jan-June 82,337 101,335 +23.07%
Monthly Trend
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2013201420152016
Imported Used Cars
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 20160
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Costs of Motoring
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15Jan-16
May-16
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
Motor cars Petrol Diesel Motor Insurance
(Jan
2005
=100
)
Costs of Motoring
• New Car Price -3% (YoY); -25% since 2008• Petrol -8.4% (YoY); +9.9% March to June• Diesel -12.4% (YoY); +10.9% Jan to June• Motor Insurance +38.6%; +71.3% since June
2013
Brexit -What Happens Next?
• Only UK can decide when to trigger Article 50• Once Article 50 triggered, negotiation power shifts to
EU-27• What sort of deal if UK exits?• Norway has access to EU through EEA – but pays 90% of
UK contribution per capita• Switzerland – bilateral trade deals, pays 50% of EU
contribution• Have to sign up to rules & regulations of SEM• Negotiations would take at least 2 years
Economic Impact on UK
• 47% UK exports go to EU, 7% of EU exports to UK• UK pays £20 bln gross, but net <£10 bln• Lower budget contribution?• Impact on inward investment• Lower regulations- spurious argument• Migration – loss of EU migrants not good• Short-term exit would be bad for UK economy• Longer-term the UK economy would have to adjust• Exit does not make sense
Brexit & Ireland
• Impact on sterling?• Impact on UK economy?• FDI – possible opportunity• UK to cut CT rate to 15%?• Northern Ireland border• Impact on EU?• Many ‘unknown unknowns’• Difficult to see too many positives
GBP v Euro
1/1/2
010
2/26/2010
4/23/2010
6/18/2
010
8/13/2010
10/8/2010
12/3/2010
1/28/2
011
3/25/2
011
5/20/2
011
7/15/2
011
9/9/2
011
11/4/2
011
12/30/2
011
2/24/2
012
4/20/2
012
6/15/2
012
8/10/2
012
10/5/2012
11/30/2
012
1/25/2
013
3/22/2013
5/17/2013
7/12/2
013
9/6/2
013
11/1/2013
12/27/2
013
2/21/2014
4/18/2
014
6/13/2
014
8/8/2
014
10/3/2
014
11/28/2
014
1/23/2
015
3/20/2
015
5/15/2
015
7/10/2
015
9/4/2
015
10/30/2
015
12/25/2
015
2/19/2016
4/15/2
016
6/10/2
0160.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
Brexit & the Motor Trade
• Impact of weaker UK economy on Irish activity & hence car sales
• Weaker sterling will make imports more attractive, but car imports into UK more expensive
• Impact of trade restrictions?• Logistics of trade through UK?• Uncertainty is the big enemy of confidence
New Car Registrations
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
The Industry 2016 & 2017
• 152,000 in 2016; +21.7%• Pretty flat in 2017• Brexit concerns, but key economic factors such
as employment, disposable incomes will continue to exert positive influence
• Rapid growth of recent years running out of steam – market approaching natural state
DoneDeal Advertising Volumes
Volkswage
FordToyo
taBMW
Audi
Nissan
Opel
Peugeot
Hyundai
Mercedes-B
enzSko
daOther
RenaultHonda
Citroen
Mazda Kia
Volvo Fiat
Vauxhall
Mitsubish
iMini
Land Rover
Lexus
SaabJaguar
Chevrolet
Alfa Romeo
Daihatsu
Daewoo
Porsche
Isuzu
Rolls Royce
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
THAN ANSWERS!
July Registrations
Alan Greene President SIMI
20 Day July Registrations
New Cars Total Year to Date2016 (21525) v 2015 (19,335) = +11% 122,860+21%
New Light Commercial Vehicles Total Year to Date2016 (2,657) v 2015 (2,126)= +25% 21,064 +25% New Heavy Commercial Vehicles Total Year to Date 2016 (304) v 2015 (234) =+30% 2,093 +40%
Thank You
• Quarter 2 Motor Industry Review available at www.simi.ie/quarterlyreport