simplex infra, 1q fy 2014
TRANSCRIPT
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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
Quarterly Highlights StandaloneY/E March (` cr) 1QFY14 1QFY13 4QFY13 % chg (yoy) % chg (qoq)Net sales 1,395 1,585 1,486 (12.0) (6.1)Operating profit 151 153 145 (1.6) 3.8
Adjusted Net profit 16 28 18 (43.1) (11.9)Source: Company, Angel Research
For 1QFY2014, Simplex Infrastructures (SINF) reported a mixed set of
numbers which were above our estimates on the profitability front. SINF
reported slow execution due to stagnant order book and delayed payments
from clients; however owing to stellar operational performance earnings
were above our estimate.
Slower execution offset by higher-than-expected operational performance: Onthe top-line front, the company reported a decline of 12.0% yoy to `1,395cr in
1QFY2014, which was 7.8% lower than our estimate. Revenue contribution from
domestic and overseas operations stood at 85% and 15%, respectively, for
1QFY2014. On the operating front, the company reported an EBITDA decline of
1.6% yoy to`151cr in 1QFY2014. Adjusting for the foreign exchange MTM loss
of`3cr, the EBITDA margin stood at 10.8% and was higher than our estimate of
9.4%. The company reported an adjusted PAT of `16cr in 1QFY2014, a decline
of 43.1% yoy which is above our estimate of`14cr. This was mainly owing to the
stellar operational performance during the quarter. However, the high interestexpense at 5.8% of revenues continues to remain a concern.
Outlook and valuation: Simplex has not been performing well on the revenuefront since the last six-seven consecutive quarters due to slow moving orders and
delays in payments from clients. The company has a strong order book
(`15,843cr; 2.8x trailing revenue) and we expect execution to pick up in
2HFY2014. Considering the current order book mix, we estimate revenue and
PAT CAGR of 8.2% and 13.6% respectively over FY2013-15E. Given the recentfall in the stock price, we continue to maintain our Buy rating on the stock, with atarget price of `56, valuing the company at 4x FY2015E earnings.Key financials (Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales 5,983 5,885 6,226 6,896% chg 24.5 (1.6) 5.8 10.8
Adj.Net Profit 89 53 49 69% chg (28.2) (40.5) (8.3) 40.7
EBITDA (%) 8.9 9.1 9.1 9.0
FDEPS (`) 18.1 10.8 9.9 13.9P/E (x) 2.5 4.2 4.5 3.2
P/BV (x) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
RoE (%) 7.8 4.2 3.7 5.0
RoCE (%) 10.7 8.6 8.2 8.8
EV/Sales (x) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.3 5.2 5.2 4.9
OB/Sales (x) 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5
Order Inflows 6,561 6,117 6,954 7,899
% chg (18.2) (6.8) 13.7 13.6
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of August 19, 2013
BUYCMP `45
Target Price `56
Investment Period 12 months
Stock Info
Sector
Net Debt (` cr) 2,630
Bloomberg Code
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 55.0
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 21.3
FII / NRIs / OCBs 12.5Indian Public / Others 11.3
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex (9.8) 3.5 (0.5)
Simplex (59.0) (77.7) (90.8)
2
18,308
5,415
SINF.BO
SINF@IN
221
0.9
264/44
1,232
Infrastructure
Avg. Daily Volume
Market Cap (` cr)
Beta
52 Week High / Low
Face Value (`)
BSE Sensex
Nifty
Reuters Code
Viral Shah022-39357800 Ext: 6842
Simplex InfrastructuresPerformance Highlights
1QFY2014 Result Update | Infrastructure
August 20, 2013
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Exhibit 1:Quarterly performance (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) 1QFY14 1QFY13 4QFY13 % chg (yoy) % chg (qoq) FY2013 FY2012 % ChgNet Sales 1,395 1,585 1,486 (12.0) (6.1) 5,821 5,924 (1.7)Total Expenditure 1,245 1,432 1,341 (13.1) (7.2) 5,283 5,390 (2.0)Operating Profit 151 153 145 (1.6) 3.8 538 534 0.7OPM (%) 10.8 9.7 9.8 114bp 104bp 9.2 9.0 23bp
Interest 82 70 77 17.3 6.4 289 228 26.6
Depreciation 50 51 50 (2.5) (0.1) 200 183 9.4
Non Operating Income 6 5 7 11.6 (14.4) 42 18 138.8
Nonrecurring items (3) (8) - (60.4) - - (7) -
Profit Before tax 22 30 25 (26.6) (13.0) 90 133 0.8Tax 9 10 8 (7.4) 25.3 31 44 (30.9)
Net Profit before MI 13 20 18 (36.4) (29.0) 60 89 (33.0)PAT (%) 0.9 1.3 1.2 (35)bp (30)bp 1.0 1.5 (48)bpMinority Interest (MI) - - - - - - -Net Profit after MI 16 28 18 (43.1) (11.9) 60 96 (37.6)Adj. PAT (%) 1.1 1.8 1.2 (62)bp (8)bp 1.0 1.6 (59)bp
Adj. FDEPS 3.2 5.6 3.6 (43.1) (11.9) 12.1 19.4 (37.6)Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2:1QFY2014 Actual vs Estimates
(` cr) Estimates Actual Variation (%)Net Sales 1,514 1,395 (7.8)
EBITDA 142 151 5.9
EBITDAM (%) 9.4 10.8 97bp
Interest and Financial Charges 81 82 0.6
Adj. PAT 14 16 16.8
Source: Company, Angel Research
Execution disappoints
On the top-line front, the company reported a decline of 12.0% yoy to`1,395cr in
1QFY2014, which was 7.8% lower than our estimates. The slow execution was
mainly due to (a) liquidity issues faced by the clients (mainly from real estate
segment) and (b) stretched working capital cycle. Revenue contribution from
domestic and overseas operations stood at 85% and 15%, respectively, for
1QFY2014.
The Management has maintained its guidance for a revenue growth of ~10% and
order inflows in the range of`6,500-7,500cr for the full year. On the back healthy
order inflows in 1QFY2014 and huge order bidding pipeline, we believe the
company would be able to meet its guidance in terms of order inflows.
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Exhibit 3:Execution performance disappoints
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 4:Revenue mix (1QFY2014, %)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Slower execution and high interest cost hurt profitabilityOn the operating front, the company reported an EBITDA decline of 1.6% yoy to
`151cr in 1QFY2014. Adjusting for the foreign exchange MTM loss of `3cr, the
EBITDA margin stood at 10.8% and is higher than our estimate of 9.4%. The
company reported an adjusted PAT of`16cr in 1QFY2014, a decline of 43.1% yoy
which however is above our estimate of `14cr. This was mainly owing to stellar
operational performance during the quarter. However, the high interest expense at
5.8% of revenues continues to remain a concern.
Exhibit 5:EBITDAM improves
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 6:Slower execution hurts profitability
Source: Company, Angel Research
Order book analysis
The company secured orders worth`1,685cr in 1QFY2014, thus taking the order
book to `15,843cr (excluding L1 orders of ~`4,200cr), indicating a growth of
2.2% yoy. This converts into an order book-to-sales ratio of 2.8x trailing revenues.
Going forward, we expect the domestic segment to drive revenue growth, which
constitutes 92% of the total order book.
1,
569
1,
796
1,
585
1,
398
1,
352
1,
486
1,
395
34.531.3
28.1
5.7
(13.9)(17.2)
(12.0)
(20.0)
(10.0)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14
Sales (` cr, LHS) Growth (yoy %, RHS)
21
25
101
5
28
11
Buildings
Roads &BridgesIndustrial
Marine
Pilling
Power
Urban Infra
132
156
153
119
130
145
151
8.4 8.7
9.78.5
9.6 9.8
10.8
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14
EBITDA (`cr, LHS) EBITDAM (%, RHS)
21
26
28
13
12
18
16
1.41.4
1.8
0.9 0.9
1.21.1
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14
PAT (` cr, LHS) PATM (%, RHS)
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Exhibit 7:Order inflows Segment wise (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 8:Order backlog Segment wise (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Outlook and valuation
SINF has not been performing well on the revenue front since the last 6-7
consecutive quarters due to slow moving orders and delays in payments from
clients. However, the company has a strong order book (`15,843cr; 2.8x trailing
revenue) and we believe execution should pick up in 2HFY2014. The Management
has guided for a revenue growth of ~10% in FY2014; it expects order inflows to
be in the range of`6,500-7,500cr in FY2014. We believe the company would be
able to meet its guidance in terms of order inflows. Further, SINF is a
well-diversified player in terms of sectors, geographies and client mix, and has
limited exposure to road BOT assets unlike its peers.
On the back of current order book mix we estimate a revenue and PAT CAGR of
8.2% and 13.6% over FY2013-15E. Given the recent fall in the stock price wecontinue to maintain our Buy rating on the stock, with a target price of `56,valuing the company at 4x FY2015E earnings.
Investment argument
Diversified play
SINF is one of the oldest infrastructure companies in India (over eight decades of
work log). Since inception, the company has been involved in different segments of
the infrastructure sector, from piling (1924) to power (1960), to roads, railways
and bridges (1980), and the real estate business (2007). The company has
executed ~2,400 projects and is currently involved in >150 ongoing projects in
India and abroad. This reflects the company's execution capabilities, and ability to
successfully execute complex and numerous projects on time. The company is also
well spread geographically, with a presence in the Middle-Eastern countries of
Qatar, Oman, Dubai and Abu Dhabi and is now venturing into newer
geographies such as Bangladesh. In terms of its client profile, SINF has a healthy
mix of government and private sector projects. This successful diversification has
not only provided the company the experience of executing different and complex
projects but has also qualified it to bid for bigger ticket-size projects going ahead.
27
19
11
43
Buildings
Bridges
Pilling
Urban Infra
24
327
3
3
18
212 Buildings
Bridges
Industrial
Marine
Pilling
Power
Rail
Urban Infra
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Exhibit 9:Recommendation summary
Company CMP TP Rating Top-line (` cr) EPS (`) P/E (x) OB/FY12 FY13E FY14E CAGR (%) FY12 FY13E FY14E CAGR (%) FY12 FY13E FY14E Sales (x)
ABL 48 60 Buy 1,853 1,912 2,131 7.2 5.3 5.0 5.5 1.3 9.0 9.6 8.8 2.2CCCL 6 - Neutral 1,931 2,281 2,492 13.6 (3.3) 0.7 2.0 - (1.9) 9.2 3.1 2.2
IRB Infra 69 106 Buy 3,687 3,805 4,248 7.3 16.7 15.0 15.8 (3.0) 4.1 4.6 4.4 2.1
ITNL 122 156 Buy 6,645 7,423 7,970 9.5 26.8 30.3 31.9 9.2 4.6 4.0 3.8 2.2
IVRCL 10 - Neutral 3,759 5,673 5,892 8.4 (3.3) (1.7) (2.0) - - - - 4.6
JP Assoc. 31 41 Buy 13,415 12,946 14,897 5.4 2.5 1.2 2.7 4.1 12.5 25.1 11.5 -
L&T 738 1,002 Buy 60,873 66,532 74,520 10.6 44.8 46.9 52.2 8.0 16.5 15.7 14.1 2.5
NCC 19 27 Buy 5,725 6,044 6,533 6.8 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.4 7.8 8.0 7.5 3.2
Punj Lloyd 23 - Neutral 11,408 12,726 14,226 11.7 (0.2) 0.9 1.0 - - 27.0 22.7 1.8
Sadbhav 65 99 Buy 1,811 2,462 2,731 22.8 0.9 5.9 6.7 177.2 75.0 11.0 9.8 4.9
Simplex In. 45 56 Buy 5,897 6,237 6,908 8.2 10.8 9.9 13.9 13.6 4.2 4.5 3.2 2.8Unity Infra 18 - Neutral 2,040 2,146 2,339 7.1 12.5 9.3 9.6 (12.4) 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.9
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 10:SOTP breakup
Company Core Const. Real Estate Road BOT Invst. In Subsidiaries Others Total` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP `
ABL 18 30 - - 42 70 - - - - 60
CCCL 16 100 - - - - - - - - 16
IRB Infra 30 28 - - 76 72 - - - - 106
ITNL 58 37 - - 98 63 - - - - 156IVRCL 6 32 - - - - 13 68 - - 19
JP Assoc. 15 37 15 37 - - - - 11 27 41
L&T 731 73 - - - - 271 27 - - 1,002
NCC 13 48 - - 7 26 - - 7 26 27
Punj Lloyd 44 100 - - - - - - - - 44
Sadbhav 24 24 - - 75 76 - - - - 99
Simplex In. 56 100 - - - - - - - - 56Unity Infra 27 100 - - - - - - - - 27
Source: Company, Angel Research
Company background
SINF is one of the oldest construction companies in India, based in Kolkata. Over
the years, it has diversified across various segments to encash upon the untapped
opportunities emerging in the construction business and has delivered on an
excellent track record. The company is present across eight segments buildings
(24% of order book), bridges (13%), industrial (7%), marine (1%), pilling (3%),
power (18%), rail and roads (21%) and urban infrastructure (12%).
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Profit & loss statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales 4,552 4,808 5,983 5,885 6,226 6,896Other operating income 12 16 26 12 11 12Total operating income 4,564 4,824 6,010 5,897 6,237 6,908% chg (3.1) 5.7 24.6 (1.9) 5.8 10.8
Total Expenditure 4,110 4,333 5,477 5,361 5,672 6,286R.M. consumed 1,856 1,705 2,306 2,252 2,310 2,572
Construction expenses 580 250 293 252 274 303
Employee expenses 1,472 1,711 1,972 2,015 2,217 2,439
SG&A 202 668 907 841 872 972
EBITDA 454 491 532 536 565 621% chg 12.5 8.1 8.5 0.7 5.3 10.1
(% of Net Sales) 9.9 10.2 8.9 9.1 9.1 9.0
Depreciation & Amortisation 157 167 189 206 213 226
EBIT 297 324 344 330 352 396% chg 9.2 9.1 6.1 (4.0) 6.7 12.5
(% of Net Sales) 6.5 6.7 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.7
Interest & other Charges 122 148 231 290 330 349
Other Income 26 24 21 43 50 55
(% of PBT) 13.0 12.0 15.6 51.8 69.2 54.2
Share in profit of Associates - - - - - -
Recurring PBT 201 200 133 83 72 102% chg 15.8 (0.1) (33.5) (37.7) (13.2) 41.6
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - (5.8) - - -
PBT (reported) 201 200 127 83 72 102Tax 71.5 74.4 44.7 30.9 24.5 34.6
(% of PBT) 35.6 37.1 35.1 37.3 34.0 34.0
PAT (reported) 129 126 83 52 47 67Add: Share of earnings of asso. - - - - - -
Less: Minority interest (MI) 1.9 1.4 (1.0) (1.2) (1.4) (1.5)
Prior period items - - - - - -
PAT after MI (reported) 127 125 84 53 49 69ADJ. PAT 127 125 89 53 49 69% chg 3.0 (2.0) (28.2) (40.5) (8.3) 40.7(% of Net Sales) 2.8 2.6 1.5 0.9 0.8 1.0
Basic EPS (`) 25.7 25.2 18.1 10.8 9.9 13.9Fully Diluted EPS (`) 25.7 25.2 18.1 10.8 9.9 13.9% chg 3.0 (2.0) (28.2) (40.5) (8.3) 40.7
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
previous year numbers
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Balance sheet (Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 10 10 10 10 10 10Share App Money - warrants - - - - - -
Reserves & Surplus 968 1,078 1,197 1,291 1,334 1,397
Shareholders Funds 978 1,088 1,207 1,301 1,344 1,407Minority Interest 5 6 6 10 8 7Total Loans 1,302 1,661 2,132 2,656 2,806 2,956
Deferred Tax Liability 88 138 195 205 209 214
Total Liabilities 2,374 2,893 3,539 4,171 4,367 4,583APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 1,277 1,509 1,804 1,901 2,001 2,101
Less: Acc. Depreciation 289 384 525 666 815 973
Net Block 988 1,125 1,279 1,235 1,186 1,128Capital Work-in-Progress 19 27 44 43 43 43
Goodwill - - - - - -
Investments 3 23 54 110 110 110Current Assets 3,125 3,766 4,909 5,764 6,204 6,756Inventories 671 812 879 798 855 964
Sundry Debtors 1,806 2,298 1,689 2,305 2,503 2,706
Cash 110 106 73 83 97 103
Loans & Advances 398 405 630 798 872 965
Other 140 145 1,638 1,780 1,878 2,017
Current liabilities 1,760 2,048 2,747 2,981 3,177 3,454
Net Current Assets 1,364 1,718 2,162 2,783 3,028 3,302Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -
Total Assets 2,374 2,893 3,539 4,171 4,367 4,583Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
previous year numbers
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Cash flow statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EProfit before tax 201 200 127 83 72 102
Depreciation 81 95 141 141 149 158Change in Working Capital (212) (357) (478) (611) (230) (268)
Less: Other income (26) (24) (21) (43) (50) (55)
Direct taxes paid (71) (74) (45) (31) (24) (35)
Cash Flow from Operations (28) (160) (275) (461) (83) (98)(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (63) (241) (312) (96) (100) (100)
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (1) (20) (31) (56) - -
Other income 26 24 21 43 50 55
Cash Flow from Investing (37) (237) (322) (109) (50) (45)Issue of Equity (21) - (0) - - -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans 82 358 471 524 150 150
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (12) (12) (11) (11) (6) (6)
Others 7 47 104 68 4 5
Cash Flow from Financing 56 393 564 580 148 149Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (9) (4) (33) 10 14 6
Opening Cash balances 119 110 106 73 83 97Closing Cash balances 110 106 73 83 97 103
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
previous year numbers
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Key RatiosY/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 1.7 1.8 2.5 4.2 4.5 3.2P/CEPS 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8
P/BV 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Dividend yield (%) 4.5 4.5 4.5 2.2 2.2 2.2
EV/Sales 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4
EV/EBITDA 3.1 3.6 4.3 5.2 5.2 4.9
EV / Total Assets 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7
Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 25.7 25.2 18.1 10.8 9.9 13.9
EPS (fully diluted) 25.7 25.2 18.1 10.8 9.9 13.9
Cash EPS 57.5 58.9 56.2 52.5 52.9 59.5
DPS 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Book Value 197.7 219.9 244.0 262.9 271.6 284.4
Dupont AnalysisEBIT margin 6.5 6.7 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.7
Tax retention ratio 64.4 62.9 64.9 62.7 66.0 66.0
Asset turnover (x) 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.6
ROIC (Post-tax) 8.8 8.1 7.1 5.5 5.6 6.0
Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 6.2 6.3 7.9 7.6 8.0 8.0
Leverage (x) 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.0
Operating ROE 11.9 10.5 5.9 1.6 0.7 1.9
Returns (%)ROCE (Pre-tax) 13.0 12.3 10.7 8.6 8.2 8.8
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 13.8 12.9 11.1 8.8 8.5 9.1
ROE 13.5 12.1 7.8 4.2 3.7 5.0
Turnover ratios (x)Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.4
Inventory / Sales (days) 54 56 51 52 48 48
Receivables (days) 139 155 121 124 141 138
Payables (days) 156 159 159 194 197 191
Wcap cycle (ex-cash) (days) 234 253 258 325 345 337
Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0
Net debt to EBITDA 2.6 3.2 3.9 4.8 4.8 4.6
Interest Coverage 2.4 2.2 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.1
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
previous year numbers
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Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement Simplex Infra
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)