simulating the impact of climate change and adaptation strategies on farm productivity and income: a...
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Simulating the Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies on Farm Productivity and Income: A Bioeconomic Analysis Presented by Ismael Fofana at the AGRODEP Workshop on Analytical Tools for Climate Change Analysis June 6-7, 2011 • Dakar, Senegal For more information on the workshop or to see the latest version of this presentation visit: http://www.agrodep.org/first-annual-workshopTRANSCRIPT
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Please check the latest version of this presentation on:
http://www.agrodep.org/first-annual-workshop ww
w.a
gro
dep
.org
Simulating the Impact of Climate
Change and Adaptation
Strategies on Farm
Productivity and Income:
A Bioeconomic Analysis
Presented by:
Ismael FofanaInternational Food Policy
Research Institute - Dakar
AGRODEP Workshop on Analytical Tools for Climate Change
Analysis
June 6-7, 2011 • Dakar, Senegal
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Simulating the Impact of Climate Change andof Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies on Farm Productivity
and Income: A Bioeconomic Analysis
Ismaël Fofana
International Food Policy Research Institute
West and Central AfricaWest and Central Africa
Dakar, Senegal
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1 Issue and objective1. Issue and objective
2. Methodology- Biophysical Model- Economic Model- Climate Scenarios- Climate Scenarios
3. Results
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1. Issue and objective
O r climate is changing more and more• Our climate is changing; more and more evidences on rising temperature, sea-levels, frequency and severity of droughts and floodsfrequency and severity of droughts and floods, …
A i lt l t i hi hl li t iti• Agricultural sector is highly climate sensitive
• Climate defines production areas for crops
• Climate’s effect on yield is important
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1. Issue and objective (cont.)
Objective
• Better understand the impact of climate change on farmers and agricultural productiong p
• Help to properly anticipate and adapt farming toHelp to properly anticipate and adapt farming to optimize food production
• Analysis at the farm level is a crucial step before moving into a large and general analysismoving into a large and general analysis
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2. Methodology (cont.)
S i h iScenarios on changes in temperature, precipitation, & CO2
6 Future Climate
S i
Gross Profit Margin
FarmEcon. Model
(Linear optimization)Biophysical
Model
Scenarios
(CropSyst)
Crop yieldsInputs use
Fixed Prices
Inputs use
Price taking assumption
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CropSyst or Cropping Systems Simulation ModelLOCATION WEATHER Storms Evapotranspiration Freezing climates WindCROP
MANAGEMENT
CROP Classification Planting Growth Morphology MANAGEMENT
Harvest Irrigation Clipping Nitrogen
Morphology Phenology Vernalization Photoperiod Harvest g
Conservation Tillage
Residue Nitrogen Salinity CO2 DormancySOIL Leaching Runoff RUSLE RUSLE Volatilization Texture Hydraulics
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CropSyst (cont.)
Crop growth
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CropSyst (cont.)Soil texture
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CropSyst (cont.)
Evapotranspiration model
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CropSyst (cont.)IrrigationIrrigation
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CropSyst (cont.)
Hard wheat(RL 39% + IL 16%)
SIMULATION CONTROLE
[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]
Fodder barley SIMULATION CONTROLE
RotationSoil profileResidue
Soft wheat(RL 4%)
[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]
barley(RL 2%)
[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]
ResidueNitrogenRunoffCO2
[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]
Fava beans(RL 2%) Validation
Oat hay(IL 8%)Chi k
(RL 2%)[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]
(IL 8%)[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]
Chickpeas(RL 1%)
[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]
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CropSyst (cont.)
Sim lation controleSimulation controle
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CropSyst (cont.)
Crop and management rotation tableCrop and management rotation table
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CropSyst (cont.)
Atmospheric CO2Atmospheric CO2
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CropSyst (cont.)Runtime graphic displayu t e g ap c d sp ay
Atmospheric conditions graph• Average daily temperature• Actual evapotranspiration• Actual evapotranspiration• Potential evapotranspiration• Precipitation• Runoff
Atmospheric conditions graph• Plant height
Growth stage graph Runoff
• Actual transpiration• Potential transpiration
• Plant height• Biomass• Leaf area index• Green area index
graph
Green area index• Total stress• Nitrogen stress• Light stressg• Water stress• Temperature stress
Pl t Pl t A il bl
Harvest Totals
Display Plant Available
Water graph
Plant Available Nitrogen graph
[ammonium & nitrate]
Display
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ValidationReal yield Simulated yield
Calibration results for irrigated hard 25
3035404550
on/ha)
gwheat
0510152025
0 1 2 3 4 5
Yield (t
0 1 2 3 4 5
Years
Real yield Simulated yield
Calibration results 40
50
60
/ha)
Real yield Simulated yield
for rainfed hard wheat
0
10
20
30
Yield (ton
/
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Year
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No modeling of:
• Tree cropsW d• Weeds
• Diseases• Pests• Pests• Grassland• Livestock• Livestock• Physical damage (soil)• Plant characteristicsPlant characteristics• Intercropping system• Food qualityq y
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I i l
Crop Development Models (incomplete list)
DSSATDecision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer
InternationalConsortium forAgricultural SystemsApplications
http://www.icasa.net/dssat
Applications
APSIMAgricultural Production Systems Simulator
The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
http://www.apsim.infoSystems Simulator Industrial Research
Organizationfo
CropSyst Cropping Systems Simulation Model
Washington State University
http://www.bsye.wsu edu/cropsystSimulation Model University wsu.edu/cropsyst
EPICErosion Productivity Impact Calculator
United States Department of Agriculture
http://epicapex.brc.tamus.edu
Agriculture
Aquacrop crop water productivity model FAOhttp://wwww.fao.org
Wageningen http://www wofostWOFOST WOrld FOod STudies
Wageningen University
http://www.wofost.wur.nl
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Economic Model
ObjectiveObjective
, ,max c m c mL c m
T , , , , , , ,c m c m j c j c m i c ij iy p q p
with
Constraints
,c m j i
Soil occupation: ,S
c mc m
T T
Rotation: , ,cc mi cf miS S min5 max5years yearsc ccS S S and
Water: ,s
c t tcW W
Animal food: Surface allocated to barley fodder compensated for the change in supplies of animal food (stubbles)
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Assumptions (cont.)
• Rational decision making with gross margins the only variable influencing surface allocation
• Fixed products and factor prices (price taker)
• No constraint on the farm’s access to other productive factors e g labor and capitalproductive factors, e.g. labor and capital
• Water supply mostly comes from surface waterWater supply mostly comes from surface water and its availability is proportionally affected by the change in rainfallg
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Climate Change Scenarios
CO2concentration
Change in daily
precipitation
Change in daily temperature
+1°C +2°C +3°Cprecipitation C C 3 C
-10% Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 5700 ppm
-20% Scenario 2 Scenario 4 Scenario 6
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2. Methodology (cont.)
A ti h iAssumption on changes in temperature, precipitation, & CO2
6 Future Climate
S i
Gross Profit Margin
FarmEcon. Model
(Linear optimization)Biophysical
Model
Scenarios
(CropSyst)
Crop yieldsInputs use
Fixed Prices
Inputs use
Price taking Assumption
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2. Methodology
Global/RegionalCirculation Models
GHG Emissions
Future Climate
Scenarios
Future Climate
Scenarios
5
Micro-Behavioral
Biophysical Model
ModelCrop yieldsInputs use
GHG emissionsPrices
Multi-SectoralPartial/General Crop yields
Inputs useP i
2
4
EquilibriumModel
Inputs useGHG emissions
Prices
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3. ResultsProductivity effects (%)
Productivity loss:15 to 20% in the near-term; 35 to 55% in the long runto 55% in the long run
Income effects (%)
Income loss: 5 to 20% in the near-term; 45 to 70% in the long run
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3. Results (cont.)
Yield of rainfed hard wheat (%) Yield of irrigated hard wheat (%)Yield of rainfed hard wheat (%) Yield of irrigated hard wheat (%)
• Irrigated crops less affected than rainfed crops (with 10 percentage points of productivity gap)
• Precipitation induced productivity gap lessens as• Precipitation-induced productivity gap lessens as the climate warms up
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3. Results (cont.)Yield of irrigated oat hay (%) Yield of irrigated hard wheat (%)g y ( ) g ( )
Yield of rainfed fava beans (%) Yield of rained fodder barley (%)
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3. Results (cont.)Hard wheat yield (tons/ha)Hard wheat yield (tons/ha)
CompensationCompensation for the negative effects of li t hclimate change
through irrigation is
Percentage variation of hard wheat yield (%) worthwhile only for a 1°C increase inincrease in temperature
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Summary1 Yield loss: 1oC 15 20% ; 2oC to 3oC 35 55%1. Yield loss: 1oC 15-20% ; 2oC to 3oC 35-55%
2 Rev loss: 1oC 5-20% ; 2oC to 3oC 45-70%2. Rev. loss: 1 C 5 20% ; 2 C to 3 C 45 70%
3. Irrigated crops less affected than rainfed cropsg p p
4. Precipitation-induced productivity gap lessen as p p y g pthe climate warms up
5. Some crops less affected than others
6 I i ti d t ti t t i th hil6. Irrigation, as an adaptation strategy, is worthwhile only for a 1°C increase in temperature
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Thank you for your attention
More information at
www.ifpri.org
www.agrodep.orgg p g