singapore country profile economist intelligence unit - the economist apr 2011

Country Report

Singapore

April 2011

Economist Intelligence Unit 26 Red Lion Square London WC1R 4HQ United Kingdom

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Singapore 1

Country Report April 2011 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2011

Singapore

Executive summary 3 Highlights

Outlook for 2011-15 4 Political outlook 6 Economic policy outlook 7 Economic forecast

Monthly review: April 2011 11 The political scene 12 Economic policy 13 Economic performance

Data and charts 17 Annual data and forecast 18 Quarterly data 19 Monthly data 21 Annual trends charts 22 Monthly trends charts 23 Comparative economic indicators

Country snapshot 24 Basic data 25 Political structure

Editors: Fung Siu (editor); Gareth Leather (consulting editor)

Editorial closing date: March 31st 2011

All queries: Tel: (44.20) 7576 8000 E-mail: [email protected] Next report: To request the latest schedule, e-mail [email protected]

2 Singapore


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Singapore 3


Executive summary

Highlights

April 2011

• The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the People�s Action Party (PAP) to remain in power during the forecast period. However, the party will face difficulties as it strives to maintain popular support.

• The next general election must be held by February 2012, but speculation over the possibility of an early poll has intensified. Whenever it is held, the PAP is expected to win a hefty parliamentary majority.

• Singapore�s fiscal stance is expected to tighten in 2011-15 as the government maintains its countercyclical approach to policymaking.

• The economy is expected to resume a sustainable growth path in the forecast period, following a mild recession in 2009 and a strong rebound in 2010. Real GDP growth will average 5% a year in 2011-15.

• In part owing to recent changes in the policy stance of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (the central bank), the Singapore dollar will remain strong during the forecast period, helping to calm inflationary pressures.

• The current account will continue to post large surpluses in 2011-15, owing to healthy surpluses on the merchandise trade account.

• Speculation about the likelihood of an early parliamentary poll has inten-sified markedly in recent weeks, most notably following the release of a report by the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC) in February.

• Recommendations by the EBRC were accepted in full by the government. Singapore now has 27 electoral divisions made up of 12 single-member constituencies and 15 group representation constituencies.

• In March the foreign minister, George Yeo, said that Singapore would be affected by a weakened Japanese economy following the March 11th earth-quake and tsunami.

• The seasonally adjusted rate of overall unemployment (including Singaporean citizens, permanent residents and foreigners holding employment passes) rose to 2.2% in December 2010, from 2.1% in September.

• Non-oil domestic exports rose by 7.8% year on year in February, following an annual increase of 20.7% in the previous month. The rate of increase was the slowest recorded since October 2009.

• The consumer price index rose by 5.3% year on year on average in the first two months of the year, well above the 3-4% target range projected by the government.

Outlook for 2011-15

Monthly review

4 Singapore


Outlook for 2011-15 Political outlook

Although the ruling People�s Action Party (PAP) could face challenges to its authority and popularity during the forecast period, it will remain Singapore�s dominant political force. Throughout its long period in government, the PAP has managed to deliver rising prosperity and promote social harmony through a paternalistic approach, and its far-sighted policies have contributed to the building of a successful and relatively harmonious multicultural society that enjoys a high standard of living, with good amenities, education, healthcare, housing and transport. In many ways, therefore, the Singaporean people have entered into an implicit contract with the PAP, according to which they accept the party�s political dominance in return for a high standard of living.

The timely implementation of policies that limited the local effects of the 2008-09 global economic downturn, and the recent generous budget for fiscal year 2011/12 (April-March), are likely to have put the PAP in an even stronger position ahead of the next election, which is due by early 2012 but now appears likely to be held ahead of schedule. The ruling party will campaign on the basis that it has the experience and expertise to lead the country during bad times as well as good. Moreover, given that its political opponents are weak and subject to repression by the government, the PAP is expected to retain its stranglehold on power for the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, the electorate's disgruntlement about a number of issues could grow. An important potential source of popular discontent is the large number of foreign workers in the country, both low-skilled and professional. The government is trying to address these concerns: it says that immigration at current levels cannot continue, and has raised the levy imposed on foreign workers. The prime minister, Lee Hsien Loong, has said that the government will "manage and moderate" the inflow of foreign workers. However, he has also conceded that it remains necessary for Singapore to welcome "hard-working" foreigners to expand the country�s pool of talent and compensate for its low birth rate. There is a clear political aspect to this question, as electioneering by both the PAP and opposition parties has forced the issue out into the open.

The PAP has other weaknesses that could threaten its position. The prime minister�s father, Lee Kuan Yew, the minister mentor, who has been a dominant influence on Singapore�s development during his political career, is still a major unifying force in the PAP. His eventual death�he is 87 years old�could trigger change, especially if rivalries surface within the party or if the Lee family�s political dominance diminishes. Such developments could also lead to a more meaningful debate about how much political freedom should be permitted in the city state.

The current leadership appears to be aware of the potential struggle that it faces to hold on to power in the long term: the prime minister has said that the main challenge will be to institute a political system that will function effectively for generations to come. In an apparent bid to respond to demands for greater

Political stability

Singapore 5


political participation and to convey the impression that the government is in tune with the electorate�s growing political aspirations, Mr Lee has overseen reforms which guarantee that the next parliament will contain at least 18 non-PAP members. The changes to the constitution, which were pushed through in July last year, include increasing the allowable number of non-constituency members of parliament (NCMPs, who are in practice the best-performing losers among opposition candidates) from six to nine, and making permanent the system under which there are a number of nominated members of parliament (NMPs) who are chosen for their non-partisan and alternative views. NCMPs and NMPs are generally regarded as second-class MPs, as they do not have the same voting rights as elected MPs�they cannot vote on issues related to constitutional amendments and public funds or participate in no-confidence motions in parliament.

In line with the government's reform plans, in February Singapore's Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC), which reviews and draws up electoral boundaries, recommended an increase in the number of single-member constituencies (SMCs) and a reduction in the size of group representation constituencies (GRCs). The reduction in the size of GRCs would make the system marginally more democratic, as it would give opposition members of parliament (MPs) a better chance of competing against the PAP. When contesting a GRC, a party is required to nominate a number of candidates, depending on the size of the GRC (they all currently have either five or six seats), all of whom become MPs in the event that the party outperforms its opponents in that constituency. GRCs were introduced before the 1989 general election; the PAP claims that they help to ensure that non-Chinese ethnic groups are represented in parliament, as at least one of each party�s nominated candidates must come from an ethnic minority, typically Indians or Malays. However, the opposition argues that GRCs are aimed as much at preserving the PAP�s political dominance as at promoting minority rights. GRCs have often been formed through the merger of pro-PAP constituencies with a SMC in which an opposition party has polled well, and no opposition party has ever won a GRC.

These modest reforms are seen in some quarters as an acknowledgement by the PAP that it cannot remain overwhelmingly dominant as Singapore becomes a more open and diverse society. But the reforms are not expected to loosen the PAP�s stranglehold on power, as NCMPs and NMPs have only limited voting rights in parliament. Moreover, although the changes will ostensibly widen the range of opinion represented in the legislature, the PAP does not yet appear willing to give consideration to opposition views regarding the preferred direction of Singapore�s political and economic development.

Speculation about the likelihood of an early parliamentary poll has intensified markedly in recent weeks, most notably following the release of a report by the EBRC in February. In the past this body has published its recommendations regarding changes to constituencies around two months before an election. Although the PAP will be mindful of the fact that its share of the popular vote dropped at the 2006 election, to 67%, from 75% in 2001, there is little doubt that its wealth of experience and talent gives it a significant advantage over the

Election watch

6 Singapore


opposition parties. Moreover, the government will continue to impose strict limits on freedom of speech and assembly, thereby preventing the opposition from campaigning openly and effectively. The result of the next election is therefore not in any real doubt, and the PAP is set to win another substantial parliamentary majority. However, if the PAP�s percentage of the vote falls below 67%, it may signal that latent voter discontent is coming to the fore. Should the PAP win less than 60% of the popular vote, this might pave the way for the emergence of a more vigorous democratic opposition. It is likely that one of the ruling party�s main concerns regarding the forthcoming election is the possibility that it might lose one of the GRCs to an opposition party for the first time.

The president, S R Nathan, recently indicated that he will not seek re-election when his term ends in 2011. His victory in 2005 was controversial, as he won by default after three potential rivals were disqualified. Any potential candidate for the presidency must first be vetted by an election committee. The presi-dential elections are likely to be held in September, some months after a parliamentary election, which could be called as early late April or May.

Singapore�s relations with its closest neighbours, Malaysia and Indonesia, are expected to improve in 2011-15. If the domestic political situation in those two countries remains stable, this will make it easier for Singapore to resolve more of its prickly and long-running bilateral disputes with them. Relations with Malaysia have been warming, owing in part to the substantial opportunities that are emerging in the Iskandar Malaysia (IM) development region, an area three times the size of Singapore that lies just over the city state�s border with Malaysia, in southern Johor. This is proving a magnet for investment by Singaporean manufacturers and is acting as a focus for increased collaboration between the two governments. Although the IM is still in its early stages, greater connectivity between the two countries will improve crossborder access and promote economic integration, bringing together Singapore�s workforce and Malaysia�s land and other natural resources. However, a degree of racially tinged wariness will persist between the two countries, despite the mutual desire for stronger economic ties.

Singapore will also continue to seek ways to encourage greater economic integration in Asia and Australasia and to promote global free trade, thereby helping to reinforce its position as an important transport and financial hub. In this respect, Singapore will continue to play an active role at the forefront of moves to improve co-operation and integration among the ten members of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Economic policy outlook

In terms of broad policy initiatives, in the next few years the government will proceed with plans to implement the recommendations of the Economic Strategies Committee, a body created by the prime minister in May 2009 to examine ways of ensuring Singapore�s continued prosperity. The committee�s proposals include restricting growth in the number of foreign workers, freeing up land for development, and increasing productivity growth by improving

Policy trends

International relations

Singapore 7


labour skills and relying more heavily on technology and innovation. As indicated by the tightening of policy in October 2010 by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS, the central bank), the policy agenda is expected to focus on maintaining price stability in the short term amid firm domestic demand, as the economy remains on a sustained growth trajectory.

Singapore�s fiscal stance is expected to tighten in 2011-15 as the government maintains its countercyclical approach to policymaking. Officials are targeting a small budget surplus of S$1bn (US$770m) in 2011/12. Excluding a range of special transfers (such as growth dividends), the government plans to increase total expenditure in 2011/12 by just 1.5%, to S$47.1bn, while it expects revenue to increase by 5.9%, to S$48.1bn. For 2010/11 the government initially targeted a deficit of S$7.2bn, but unexpectedly rapid revenue growth has meant that it now expects to post a shortfall of just S$930m (US$740m). On a calendar-year basis the government ran a small surplus in 2010, equivalent to 0.2% of GDP, and, in line with the latest budget plans and the current direction of policy, small surpluses will also be recorded in 2011-12. Assuming that the economy remains on a sustainable growth path during the latter part of the forecast period, strong revenue growth, coupled with modest public spending, will result in more sizeable budget surpluses from 2013 onwards.

In order to contain inflation during the next two years, the MAS is expected to allow further appreciation in the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), which is derived from an undisclosed basket of trading partners� currencies. In pursuit of its objective of promoting non-inflationary sustainable growth, the MAS manages the NEER within a set band (the centre and width of which are also undisclosed), rather than using short-term interest rates as policy instruments. In October 2010, in its latest twice-yearly monetary policy statement, the MAS signalled that it intended to allow a slightly faster pace of appreciation in the NEER, announcing that it would steepen slightly the slope of the band within which the NEER is kept, while also widening the band. It is likely that the MAS will take further steps at its two policy meetings this year, in April and October, to strengthen the exchange rate so as to offset the impact of soaring global commodity prices on the domestic price level. Assuming that inflationary pressures subside during the latter part of the forecast period, the MAS will loosen policy, possibly reverting to a slightly flatter slope for the NEER policy band or again adopting a zero-appreciation stance.

Economic forecast

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Economic growth (%) US GDP 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7

OECD GDP 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.2

EU27 GDP 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9

World GDP 3.8 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.2

World trade 12.5 6.9 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.1

International assumptions

Monetary policy

Fiscal policy

8 Singapore


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Inflation indicators (% unless otherwise indicated) US CPI 1.6 2.1 1.9 2.5 2.8 2.8

OECD CPI 1.4 1.8 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.3

EU27 CPI 1.9 2.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1

Manufactures (measured in US$) 3.4 3.1 0.0 1.0 1.8 2.4

Oil (Brent; US$/b) 79.6 101.0 85.0 78.3 75.5 76.0

Non-oil commodities (measured in US$) 24.3 27.9 -11.1 -5.7 -2.5 -0.3

Financial variables US$ 3-month commercial paper

rate (av; %) 0.3 0.3 0.7 2.2 4.1 5.1

¥ 3-month Gensaki rate (av; %) 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.0 2.3

¥:US$ (av) 87.9 81.5 81.0 81.0 82.1 83.5

US$:� (av) 1.33 1.31 1.25 1.20 1.23 1.28

S$:US$ (av) 1.36 1.26 1.24 1.24 1.25 1.25

Singapore's economy recovered strongly in 2010, expanding by 14.5%, driven by rapid growth in manufacturing and services. The economy is now expected to move on to a more stable growth path, with real GDP growth averaging 5% a year during the forecast period. However, as the economy remains largely unchanged structurally and continues to be dominated by the external sector, it will continue to be exposed to fluctuations in global demand. The Economist Intelligence Unit's central forecast is that world economic growth will remain steady at around 3% a year over the next five years, but there is a risk that the pace of global growth will falter and thereby damage growth prospects in Singapore, particularly if sovereign debt troubles worsen in the euro zone or if political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa causes international crude oil prices to remain at their current high levels in 2011-12. Based on our central forecast, Singapore's exports of goods and services will grow at an average annual rate of 9.5% in the next five years. Gross fixed investment is expected to expand by an average of 7% a year in the forecast period, bolstered by large government-funded projects, while private consumption growth will remain healthy, averaging 4.2% a year. The government will remain supportive during the early part of the forecast period, providing a range of measures to bolster consumption and investment.

On a sectoral basis, the industrial sector (including construction) is expected to grow at an average rate of 5.1% a year in 2011-15, boosted by solid gains in manufacturing. Biomedical firms will play an increasingly important role in the manufacturing sector during the forecast period, following output growth in the biomedical subsector of 49.8% in 2010. Although output in the biomedical segment can fluctuate strongly from one month to the next, owing to factory shutdowns as the product mix is changed, the subsector is less sensitive than the electronics industry to fluctuations in the rate of global economic growth. Solid growth in external demand during the forecast period will help to boost entrepôt trade, while rising business and consumer confidence will help to support the wholesale and retail services sectors. The opening of two casino-based hotel resorts in 2010 have significantly boosted the city state's tourism infrastructure. The resorts are expected to attract even more visitors this year compared with the year-earlier period, when a tourist arrivals increased to a record high of 11.6m.

Economic growth

Singapore 9


Economic growth % 2010a 2011b 2012 b 2013 b 2014b 2015b

GDP 14.5 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.3

Private consumption 4.2 4.8 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.9

Government consumption 11.0 7.1 4.1 4.0 3.3 3.5

Gross fixed investment 5.1 6.5 7.6 6.7 7.1 7.0

Exports of goods & services 19.2 7.6 9.4 10.2 10.5 9.8

Imports of goods & services 16.6 9.3 10.3 10.8 11.3 10.3

Domestic demand 7.2 6.3 5.9 5.1 4.7 5.5

Industry 25.3 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.0

Services 10.1 4.4 5.0 4.9 4.9 5.4

a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.

Amid high global prices for oil and non-oil commodities in 2011, we expect consumer price inflation to average 4.1% this year. The housing category will exert a strong upward influence on consumer prices as the city state's only electricity company, Singapore Power, increases its electricity tariffs in line with rising global oil prices. In March Singapore Power announced its intention to increase tariffs by an average of 6.5% from April 1st. However, transport costs are unlikely to continue to rise at their current rapid pace on a year-on-year basis (accelerating inflation during much of 2010 was driven largely by a surge in the cost of government-issued licences for vehicle ownership). Moreover, the appreciation of the Singapore dollar, in line with the MAS's policy of allowing the NEER to strengthen, will help to damp down import price pressures in 2011. From 2012 onwards inflation is forecast to slow, owing to moderating global prices for oil and non-oil commodities.

In line with recent policy changes (under the managed floating exchange-rate system) to strengthen the Singapore dollar, in 2011 the local currency will strengthen against the US dollar by nearly 8%, following an appreciation of 6.7% in 2010. However, as inflationary pressures ease over the remainder of the fore-cast period, there will be scope for the authorities to try to slow the currency�s appreciation against the US dollar and the euro in order to maintain the city state�s international competitiveness. Managing the exchange rate could be complicated by factors influencing the values of other currencies, notably the Chinese renminbi, given the external pressure that is being exerted on the Chinese authorities to revalue their currency. Imbalances in the US and European economies could also lead to periods of turbulence for the US dollar and the euro, giving rise to volatility in Asian currency markets.

Singapore enjoyed a rapid recovery in merchandise export revenue in 2010. Although export revenue will continue to rise, the pace of growth will be relatively slow in the early part of the forecast period. The import bill will meanwhile continue to expand as a result of a healthy rate of increase in domestic demand and renewed growth in the export-oriented manufacturing sector, but export revenue will be sufficient to keep the merchandise trade account in a strong position. The services account will remain in surplus in the forecast period, boosted by plentiful tourism receipts and strong external demand for Singapore�s financial services. By contrast, the income account will stay in deficit throughout the period. Although income from abroad is expected

External sector

Exchange rates

Inflation

10 Singapore


to grow as local companies and the MAS enjoy a rise in returns on overseas investments, income payments will also increase, in line with higher profits made by foreign companies with subsidiaries in Singapore. The current account will continue to post large surpluses in the forecast period, owing to healthy surpluses on the merchandise trade account.

Forecast summary (% unless otherwise indicated)

2010a 2011b 2012 b 2013 b 2014b 2015b

Real GDP growth 14.5 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.3

Industrial production growth 29.6 3.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.5

Gross fixed investment growth 5.1 6.5 7.6 6.7 7.1 7.0

Unemployment rate (av) 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.9

Consumer price inflation (av) 2.8 4.1 2.4 2.1 1.9 2.1

Consumer price inflation (end-period) 4.6 3.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.4

Money market rate 0.4 0.7 1.5 2.6 2.6 2.7

Government balance (% of GDP) 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.7

Exports of goods fob (US$ bn) 358.4c 427.5 472.9 529.6 595.2 670.1

Imports of goods fob (US$ bn) 310.4c 377.7 417.1 477.8 545.9 619.5

Current-account balance (US$ bn) 46.3c 45.3 43.9 53.1 49.1 51.1

Current-account balance (% of GDP) 20.8c 17.2 15.5 17.7 15.4 14.8

External debt (end-period; US$ bn) 21.8c 23.1 24.4 26.5 29.3 32.4

Exchange rate S$:US$ (av) 1.36 1.26 1.24 1.24 1.25 1.25

Exchange rate S$:US$ (end-period) 1.29 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25

Exchange rate S$:¥100 (av) 1.55 1.54 1.53 1.53 1.52 1.49

Exchange rate S$:� (av) 1.81 1.64 1.54 1.49 1.53 1.59

a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. c Economist Intelligence Unit estimates.

Singapore 11


Monthly review: April 2011

The political scene

Singapore�s Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC, which reviews and draws up electoral boundaries) has completed its re-drawing of the city state�s constituencies, signalling that the next general election is likely to be held in a matter of weeks. On February 24th the government, led by the prime minister, Lee Hsien Loong, accepted the recommendations of the EBRC, which had been convened four months earlier, in late October. Although the government has yet to announce the date of the next election, and the poll does not have to be held until February 2012, Singapore�s past three elections have been held between about two weeks and two months of the release of the EBRC�s report. On February 25th Mr Lee said that the boundary changes meant that oppo-sition parties would find it easier to win seats in parliament (the legislature). But opposition parties have accused the government of re-drawing the boundaries in favour of the ruling party, the People�s Action Party (PAP).

In line with changes set out by Mr Lee in May 2009, the committee reduced the average size of group member constituencies (GRCs), wherein a party nominates between four and six candidates, all of whom are returned to parliament in the event that their party secures victory. There will now be two four-member GRCs, 11 five-member GRCs and two six-member GRCs (compared with five six-member GRCs at the last general election). The number of single-member constituencies (SMCs) has been increased from nine to 12. As a result of the changes, the number of elected members of parliament (MPs) has been increased from 84 to 87. In addition to elected MPs, Singapore�s legis-lature comprises a number of nominated MPs and non-constituency MPs (NCMPs). The next parliament may include more appointees following changes to the constitution made in July 2009 that increased the maximum number of NCMPs from six to nine.

Although the increase in the number of SMCs should make the contest slightly more open, opposition leaders have criticised the boundary changes. The chair-man of the Workers� Party (WP), Sylvia Lim, responded to the latest reforms by accusing the government of "gerrymandering". As an example, Ms Lim said that the committee separated nine districts from the Aljunied GRC in the east where her party had polled well at the previous election. Seven of these districts have been added to a constituency in north-eastern Singapore, the Ang Mo Kio GRC�one of the PAP�s safest constituencies and which is represented by the prime minister. The districts have been replaced in Aljunied by six districts from Marine Parade, another PAP-safe constituency, represented by the previous prime minister, Goh Chok Tong. Given that the size of the electorate in the newly drawn Aljunied constituency is more or less the same as in the previous one, Ms Lim has questioned the need for a change.

The WP is presently holding negotiations with other opposition parties, including the Singapore Democratic Party, led by Chee Soon Juan, and the Reform Party, led by the secretary-general, Kenneth Jeyaretnam, to decide the

A general election is likely to be held in a matter of weeks

12 Singapore


constituencies that they will each contest. At a meeting on March 5th the opposition parties agreed that they would field a candidate in each of the 27 constituencies, meaning that the PAP will not be returned to power until polling day itself. (In the past, elections have sometimes been settled on nomination day as opposition parties have not fielded candidates in sufficient constituencies for there to be even a theoretical possibility of a PAP defeat.)

The result of the upcoming election is not in any doubt: the PAP will secure another unassailable majority in parliament, as it has done at every poll since 1955, when the city state was still ruled by the UK. In 2011 the ruling party is going into the election in a strong position. In 2010 Singapore recorded its fastest pace of economic growth since records began in the early 1960s, with real GDP expanding by 14.5%. After having risen during the 2009 domestic recession, unemployment among residents has fallen, declining to a seasonally adjusted 3.1% in December 2010. Also, on February 18th officials announced in the budget for fiscal year 2011/12 (April-March) a S$3.2bn (US$2.5bn) "grow-and-share" package of cash grants and tax rebates for households. Inflation will be the PAP's main economic concern: in January the headline annual rate of inflation climbed to a 26-month high of 5.6%, although in February the rate slowed slightly, to 5%.

Economic policy

Singapore�s government was swift to extend its sympathies to Japan following the March 11th earthquake and tsunami that has left more than 21,000 people missing or dead. The prime minister signed a condolence book at the Japanese embassy on behalf of the Singaporean people and the government sent a 60-tonne shipment of blankets, mattresses, bottled water, water containers and foodstuffs to the hardest-hit north-eastern coastal regions. As concern increased about the possibility of harmful radiation leaking from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, the authorities issued a health advisory recommending that Singaporeans returning from within the 20-km evacuation zone surrounding the plant seek medical consultation, but added that there was no need for screening of aircraft or passengers at Changi International Airport, the city state's main airport and a major aviation hub for South-east Asia. Surveillance of food imported from Japan has been increased, but the government has concluded that there is only "minimal risk" of Singapore being affected by the radioactive plume. So far the government has made no official statement on the economic impact of disaster, but on March 14th the foreign minister, George Yeo, said that Singapore would be affected by a weakened Japanese economy.

The natural disaster is most likely to impact Singapore through trade and finance. Singapore�s trading partners are diverse, meaning that the city state does not seem to be especially exposed to any slowdown in its trade with Japan. In 2010 Singapore�s exports to Japan accounted for only 4.7% of total receipts, making it the city state�s seventh-largest export market, according to Singapore's Ministry of Trade and Industry. Compared with other economies in South-east Asia, this number is relatively low. However, owing to the impor-tance of exports to the city state�s trade-dependent economy, Singapore may be

Japan's disaster will have a mixed impact on Singapore

Singapore 13


more vulnerable than it seems at first glance: in 2010 exports to Japan were equivalent to 7.2% of GDP�one of the highest shares as a proportion of GDP in Asia. Imports from Japan, meanwhile, were equivalent to 7.9% of total payments in 2010. Japan remains an important supplier of components and parts to the global electronics industry. Singaporean manufacturers of electronic goods may be at risk of supply-chain disruption caused by production stoppages at Japanese factories. However, any such disruption is likely to be only temporary, assuming that Japan�s factories soon return to operating at normal capacity.

Japan is also an important partner for Singapore in terms of finance. At the end of 2009 the total stock of Japanese foreign direct investment (FDI) in Singapore stood at S$51.3bn, making it the city state's third-largest foreign investor after the Netherlands (accounting for S$60bn of FDI) and the US (S$55.7bn). The earth-quake and tsunami may impact Japanese FDI in Singapore in the coming year or so. Singapore�s two sovereign wealth funds, the Government Investment Corporation (GIC) and Temasek Holdings, could also see their balance sheets impaired by the disaster. Although neither fund provides details of its portfolio, the GIC in particular has invested heavily in real estate in Japan. On March 14th Global Logistic Properties, the real-estate arm of the GIC, estimated that damage to its Japanese properties as a result of the natural disaster is equivalent to US$38.8m. However, the figure was below its earlier damage estimate of US$47.5m and represented only 0.6% of its total Japanese portfolio.

Economic performance

Unemployment edged up in the fourth quarter of 2010, but, on the whole, Singapore�s labour market ended the year in a strong position. The seasonally adjusted rate of overall unemployment (made up of Singaporean citizens, permanent residents and foreigners holding employment passes) rose to 2.2% in December 2010, from 2.1% in September, according to the Ministry of Manpower�s latest labour-market survey. Meanwhile, joblessness among residents (Singaporean citizens and permanent residents) remained stable at 3.1%, the same rate as in the previous quarter. Job-creation remained strong in October-December, with the number of employed reaching 3.1m, a quarter-on-quarter rise of 33,900. However, there was also a slight rise in the number of redundancies, which reached 3,190 in the fourth quarter�the highest level since the first quarter of 2009, at the height of the recession, when the figure reached 12,760. In 2010 as a whole, overall unemployment averaged 2.2% and resident unemployment was around 3.1%, down from 3% and 4.3% respectively in 2009. Employment rose by 115,900 in 2010 as the economy created more than three times as many jobs as in 2009, when 37,600 jobs were created. Furthermore, the number of redundancies fell to 9,800 in 2010, from 23,400 in 2009.

The services sector fuelled job-creation in the fourth quarter of 2010, adding 30,900 jobs, taking the number of people employed in the sector to 2.1m. Within the sector, the leisure industry, and specifically hotels and restaurants, created the greatest number of new jobs in that quarter, at 8,900. However, employment in the manufacturing sector fell for the third quarter in a row, with the number of people working in the sector declining by 1,200 in the fourth

Unemployment rises but the labour market remains strong

14 Singapore


quarter, to 537,900. The construction sector added 900 jobs in the fourth quarter, taking employment in that sector to 395,600. In another sign that manufacturing remains one of the weaker areas of the economy, manufacturing accounted for the greatest number of redundancies in the fourth quarter, when it recorded 1,390 job losses. There were 1,120 redundancies in services and 680 in construction in the period.

In line with strong economic growth, average monthly wages rose by 7.5% year on year in the fourth quarter, to S$4,474 (US$3,300)�the fastest pace of wage growth since the first quarter of 2008. With average monthly earnings of S$7,472, the highest-paid workers were those employed in financial services, while those employed in hotels and restaurants were the lowest-paid workers, with average earnings of S$1,544 per month. Despite faster inflation in the fourth quarter compared with the year-earlier period, wage growth accelerated in real terms by 3.4%. In 2010 as a whole, nominal wages rose by 5.6%, the fastest pace of growth since 2007, while in real terms wages increased by 2.7%, the fastest pace since 2005.

Singapore�s overall unit labour cost (the total labour cost per unit of real output) rose by 1.8% year on year in the fourth quarter, a slightly slower pace of growth compared with the third quarter, when it grew by 2.8%. The strong pace of real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2010 offset the increase in labour costs (comprising wages and salaries, benefits, contributions to the Central Provident Fund, along with the foreign workers� levy and skill-development levy). Despite the overall rise in the unit labour cost in the fourth quarter, the unit cost of labour in the manufacturing sector fell sharply, by 11% year on year, mainly reflecting the strong growth in manufacturing output in that quarter. For the year as a whole, the overall unit labour cost fell by 2.7%, following an increase of 0.6% in 2009. The manufacturing unit labour cost fell by 15.8% in 2010, after a contraction of 4% in 2009.

The annual rate of consumer price inflation slowed in February, after hitting a 26-month high in January, according to the Department of Statistics. The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 5% year on year, following an increase of 5.6% in January, which was the fastest pace of growth recorded since November 2008. The CPI rose by 5.3% on average in the first two months of the year, well above the 3-4% target range projected by the government. Prices were stable on a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis in February. High transport costs remained the main contributor to inflationary pressures, with transport prices increasing by 15.2% year on year in February, owing to an increase in the price of cars and petrol. However, the rate of increase in transport prices is slightly slower compared with the previous month, when prices surged by 18.4% year on year. As well as rise in global oil prices, higher prices at auction for Certificates of Entitlement (COEs, state-auctioned licences to purchase private vehicles) have fuelled the increase in transport costs. At the two COE auctions held in March, the premium for COEs for small-engine cars averaged S$43,207, up from S$24,596 in March 2010. Meanwhile, COE premiums for large-engine cars averaged S$59,448, up from S$31,239 in the year-earlier period. However, COE premiums have fallen from the peak that they reached in December 2010, suggesting that transport inflation will continue to slow in the coming months.

Consumer price inflation slows in February

Singapore 15


With the exception of the cost of communications, which fell by 1.7% year on year, the price of all other categories of goods and services in the consumer price basket rose in February. Food prices increased by 2.6% year on year, a slightly slower pace of growth compared with the previous month, when prices rose by 2.8%. The slowdown reflected weaker demand after the holidays for the lunar new year (which this year was celebrated on February 3rd-4th). The pace of price increases in the education and stationary category also slowed in February, to 3.3%, from 3.8% in January. However, all other categories recorded a faster pace of inflation, with the cost of clothing and footwear up by 1.3% (from 1.2% in January), housing by 5.8% (from 5.3%), healthcare by 3.2% (from 3%), and recreation and "other" goods and services up by 0.8% (from 0.7%).

Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose by 7.8% year on year in February, following an annual increase of 20.7% in January. The rate of increase was the slowest recorded since October 2009, according to the trade and industry ministry. A contraction in exports of electronic goods, the city state�s leading export, was the main reason for the slowdown. Exports of electronic goods fell by 13%, mainly owing to lower sales of disk drives, parts of integrated circuits and personal-computer parts, IES stated. Meanwhile, exports of non-electronic goods continued to expand, albeit at a slower pace than previously. Exports of non-electronic goods rose by 20%, led by sales of ships and boats, petrochemicals and specialised machinery, but that was slower than growth of 30% in January. The slower pace of export growth partly reflects the ending of the statistical base effect that had boosted year-on-year growth rates in 2010, following the collapse in world trade in 2009 amid the global recession. However, Singapore�s exports have also slowed recently on a month-on-month basis. In February merchandise exports fell by a seasonally adjusted 7.8% month on month. Exports were also lower in local currency terms. In February NODX earnings stood at S$12.9bn, the lowest level since February 2009.

Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) (S$ bn)

Source: Ministry of Trade and Industry.

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

18.0

FebJan11

DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan10

DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan2009

Demand from Singapore�s three main export markets�the EU, the US and China�made the biggest contributions to export growth in February. Exports to the 27 member states of the EU rose by 14% year on year in that month, but this represented a slowdown from the previous month, when exports had risen by 51%. Exports to the US rose by 20%, the same pace as in January, while exports

Merchandise exports grow at the slowest pace in 16 months

16 Singapore


to China were up by 14%, compared with growth of 16% in January. Exports to Malaysia and Japan also rose in the period, expanding by 4.4% and 6.2% respectively, but exports to Singapore�s remaining ten main markets declined: exports fell by 6% to Hong Kong, 17% to Indonesia, 0.2% to Taiwan, 31% to South Korea and 8.5% to Thailand.

Singapore 17


Data and charts Annual data and forecast

Pl ea se se e g ra p hi c b el ow

2006a 2007a 2008a 2009a 2010 a 2011b 2012b

GDP

Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 145.3 177.3 189.4 183.3 222.7 263.7 283.2

Nominal GDP (S$ bn) 231 267 268 267 304 331 350

Real GDP growth (%) 8.7 8.8 1.5 -0.8 14.5 4.7 5.0

Expenditure on GDP (% real change)

Private consumption 3.5 6.4 3.2 0.2 4.2 4.8 4.1

Government consumption 7.3 3.1 7.2 3.5 11.0 7.1 4.1

Gross fixed investment 14.6 19.6 13.5 -2.9 5.1 6.5 7.6

Exports of goods & services 10.9 9.3 4.0 -8.1 19.2 7.6 9.4

Imports of goods & services 11.1 7.8 9.4 -11.0 16.6 9.3 10.3

Origin of GDP (% real change)

Industry 10.9 6.9 -1.1 -1.8 25.3 5.2 5.0

Services 7.9 9.0 4.1 -0.7 10.1 4.4 5.0

Population and income

Population (m) 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.4

GDP per head (US$ at PPP) 38,769c 41,641c 40,946c 39,805c 45,333 c 47,253 49,318

Recorded unemployment (av; %) 2.7 2.1 2.3 3.0 2.2 1.9 2.1

Fiscal indicators (% of GDP)

General government revenue 13.5 14.8 15.4 14.2 14.7 14.5 14.8

General government expenditure 12.9 11.7 14.0 15.2 14.5 14.2 14.0

General government balance 0.5 3.1 1.5 -1.0 0.2 0.3 0.8

Net public debt 89.4 87.6 95.3 109.3 105.8 97.2 93.6

Prices and financial indicators

Exchange rate S$:US$ (end-period) 1.53 1.44 1.44 1.40 1.29 1.25 1.25

Exchange rate ¥:S$ (end-period) 77.61 77.51 63.08 66.32 64.13 65.42 64.91

Consumer prices (end-period; % change) 0.8 15.9 -5.7 -0.5 4.6 3.5 2.2

Producer prices (av; % change) 5.0 0.3 7.5 -13.9 4.7 4.8 3.0

Stock of money M1 (end-period; % change) 13.4 22.4 18.4 23.5 20.3 20.9 20.7

Stock of money M2 (end-period; % change) 19.4 13.4 12.0 11.3 8.6 12.0 13.5

Lending interest rate (av; %) 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.7 6.6

Current account (US$ m)

Trade balance 42,591 45,963 26,615 30,231 47,983 c 49,855 55,784

Goods: exports fob 274,900 302,822 342,776 273,411 358,373 c 427,545 472,879

Goods: imports fob -232,309 -256,859 -316,161 -243,180 -310,391 c -377,690 -417,095

Services balance 1,207 10,142 13,604 8,495 9,050 c 12,229 9,498

Income balance -7,003 -6,826 -1,396 -3,062 -7,103 c -12,600 -16,933

Current transfers balance -1,670 -2,195 -2,812 -3,038 -3,658 c -4,230 -4,434

Current-account balance 35,126 47,084 36,011 32,628 46,271 c 45,253 43,915

External debt (US$ m)

Debt stock 24,357c 25,593c 25,518c 20,298c 21,817 c 23,119 24,417

Debt service paid 4,561c 5,250c 5,397c 5,047c 4,588 c 4,464 4,576

Principal repayments 3,623c 4,178c 4,320c 4,235c 3,930 c 3,833 3,933

Interest 938c 1,071c 1,077c 812c 658 c 631 644

International reserves (US$ m)

Total international reserves 136,260 162,957 174,193 187,803 225,725 248,749 268,649

a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. c Economist Intelligence Unit estimates.

Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics.

18 Singapore


Quarterly data Pl ea se se e g ra p hi c b el ow

2009 2010

1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr

General government finance (S$ m)

Revenue 8,756 10,000 10,621 8,495 10,430 11,912 12,395 9,845

Expenditure 13,073 7,873 9,177 10,359 14,510 7,888 10,360 8,648

Balance -4,317 2,127 1,444 -1,864 -4,080 4,024 2,035 1,197

Output

GDP at 2000 prices (S$ m) 59,267 61,853 63,815 63,578 69,149 73,793 70,507 71,193

GDP at 2000 prices (% change, year on year) -8.6 -1.4 2.1 4.8 16.7 19.3 10.5 12.0

Manufacturing index (2007=100) 79.6 91.3 103.1 93.4 109.2 132.6 117.3 117.2

Manufacturing index (% change, year on year) -23.8 -0.6 7.5 2.4 37.1 45.3 13.8 25.4

Employment, wages and prices

Employment change per quarter (�000) -6.2 -7.7 14.0 37.5 36.5 24.9 20.5 33.9

Residents unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted; % of labour force) 4.6 4.5 4.8 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1

Average nominal wages, industry (S$ per month) 4,155 3,609 3,562 4,160 4,310 3,819 3,754 4,474

Consumer prices (2004=100) 100.2 99.2 100.1 100.4 101.1 102.3 103.4 104.4

Consumer prices (% change, year on year) 3.4 0.2 -0.3 -0.8 0.9 3.1 3.4 4.0

Wholesale prices (2000=100) 92.1 96.5 100.2 101.3 103.0 103.2 100.0 102.2

Wholesale prices (% change, year on year) -17.7 -19.7 -18.5 3.2 11.9 7.0 -0.2 0.9

Financial indicators

Exchange rate S$:US$ (av) 1.51 1.47 1.44 1.39 1.40 1.39 1.36 1.30

Exchange rate S$:US$ (end-period) 1.52 1.45 1.41 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.32 1.29

Deposit rate (av; %) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Lending rate (av; %) 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4

M1 (end-period; S$ m) 85,168 86,746 91,207 93,472 96,995 102,458 106,789 112,466

M1 (% change, year on year) 23.7 18.8 20.6 23.5 13.9 18.1 17.1 20.3

M2 (end-period; S$ m) 349,272 356,327 361,304 371,123 380,019 382,500 390,848 403,078

M2 (% change, year on year) 11.5 12.9 11.3 11.3 8.8 7.3 8.2 8.6

Singapore Straits Times Index (end-period; Aug 31st 1989=1,356) 1,700.0 2,333.1 2,672.6 2,897.6 2,887.5 2,835.5 3,097.6 3,190.0

Singapore Straits Times Index (% change, year on year) -43.5 -20.8 13.3 64.5 69.9 21.5 15.9 10.1

Sectoral trends (% change, year on year)

Electronic goods production -36.6 -19.4 -1.2 28.0 66.4 52.8 26.2 14.2

Chemicals production -22.6 -16.5 -5.3 12.9 16.7 17.2 8.7 10.1

Pharmaceuticals production -24.6 73.8 69.8 -27.4 56.7 89.2 -3.3 93.2

Foreign trade (S$ bn)

Exports fob 85.7 93.1 104.2 108.1 109.9 120.1 125.1 123.8

Imports cif 79.6 84.8 94.5 97.4 99.9 107.3 109.3 106.8

Trade balance 6.1 8.3 9.7 10.8 10.0 12.9 15.8 17.0

Balance of payments (S$ m)

Merchandise trade balance fob-fob 7,550 10,313 11,545 13,050 12,354 16,709 18,404 16,129

Services balance 3,884 4,261 4,989 7,408 5,707 5,246 5,571 5,081

Income balance 1,529 -1,317 -3,253 -3,378 -1,362 -2,937 -3,188 -3,734

Net transfer payments -1,463 -1,420 -1,444 -1,485 -1,542 -1,588 -1,668 -1,753

Current-account balance 11,500 11,837 11,836 15,597 15,158 17,430 19,120 15,723

Reserves excl gold (US$ m; end-period) 165,725 172,600 180,220 186,005 195,368 198,261 212,857 223,900

Sources: Department of Statistics; IMF, International Financial Statistics; Ministry of Manpower; Ministry of Trade and Industry, Economic Survey of Singapore.

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Monthly data Pl ea se se e g ra p hi c b el ow

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Exchange rate S$:US$ (av) 2009 1.488 1.518 1.530 1.505 1.462 1.452 1.450 1.442 1.424 1.398 1.389 1.396

2010 1.396 1.412 1.400 1.382 1.393 1.398 1.378 1.356 1.336 1.305 1.298 1.307

2011 1.288 1.277 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Exchange rate S$:US$ (end-period) 2009 1.508 1.541 1.519 1.479 1.451 1.450 1.441 1.442 1.414 1.397 1.383 1.403

2010 1.405 1.409 1.403 1.368 1.402 1.401 1.362 1.356 1.318 1.299 1.319 1.288


Real effective exchange rate (CPI basis; 2000=100) 2009 108.99 108.68 108.17 107.01 107.99 108.02 107.82 107.60 107.59 108.08 108.04 107.76

2010 108.17 108.19 108.99 110.63 112.09 112.20 112.26 112.94 113.72 113.31 113.85 113.72

2011 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Money supply M1 (% change, year on year) 2009 22.7 18.8 23.7 18.2 18.1 18.8 20.4 21.4 20.6 22.1 25.4 23.5

2010 14.2 17.5 13.9 17.2 19.9 18.1 17.0 18.2 17.1 17.9 20.0 20.3

2011 21.3 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Money supply M2 (% change, year on year) 2009 12.8 11.2 11.5 9.7 11.3 12.9 11.9 12.6 11.3 9.2 10.1 11.3

2010 10.8 9.8 8.8 9.0 9.0 7.3 7.5 8.2 8.2 10.0 9.9 8.6


Manufacturing production (% change, year on year) 2009 -25.7 -11.5 -32.2 0.8 4.9 -6.6 18.0 12.5 -6.4 2.6 -9.6 15.3

2010 41.0 19.5 52.4 49.2 58.6 28.4 9.3 7.0 26.1 29.6 40.4 8.9


Deposit rate (av; %) 2009 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

2010 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2


Lending rate (av; %) 2009 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4

2010 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4


Singapore Straits Times Index (end-period; Aug 31st 1989=1,356) 2009 1,746 1,595 1,700 1,920 2,329 2,333 2,659 2,593 2,673 2,651 2,732 2,898

2010 2,745 2,751 2,887 2,975 2,753 2,836 2,988 2,950 3,098 3,143 3,145 3,190

2011 3,180 3,011 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Consumer prices (av; % change, year on year) 2009 4.3 3.3 2.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5

2010 0.2 1.0 1.6 3.2 3.2 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.5 3.8 4.6


Wholesale prices (av; % change, year on year) 2009 -17.8 -17.2 -18.1 -18.0 -20.7 -20.2 -22.2 -17.3 -15.6 -6.9 6.0 12.4

2010 12.6 11.4 11.6 11.6 7.9 1.8 1.4 -1.6 -0.2 0.4 -0.3 2.7


20 Singapore


Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Total exports fob (S$ bn) 2009 26.4 27.6 31.7 31.2 30.0 32.0 35.0 34.0 35.1 35.6 35.6 37.0

2010 36.2 32.9 40.9 40.5 38.6 41.0 40.8 42.7 41.5 42.6 39.7 41.5


Total imports cif (S$ bn) 2009 25.6 26.4 27.6 27.6 27.6 29.6 31.4 30.0 33.1 32.3 31.3 33.7

2010 33.0 30.7 36.1 36.5 33.3 37.5 38.2 35.8 35.4 35.5 35.6 35.6


Trade balance fob-cif (S$ bn) 2009 0.8 1.2 4.1 3.5 2.4 2.3 3.7 4.0 2.0 3.3 4.3 3.2

2010 3.1 2.1 4.7 4.1 5.3 3.5 2.7 6.9 6.1 7.0 4.1 5.9


Foreign-exchange reserves excl gold (US$ bn) 2009 166.6 163.0 165.7 169.5 171.2 172.6 173.5 174.6 180.2 182.5 187.1 186.0

2010 187.8 186.1 195.4 201.7 196.7 198.3 205.2 204.7 212.9 219.6 215.8 223.9

2011 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics; Haver Analytics; Department of Statistics.

Singapore 21


Annual trends charts Pl ea se se e g ra p hi c b el ow

Annual trends charts

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit. Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.

Budget balance (% of GDP)

GDP per head (US$; PPP)



Real GDP growth(% change)

Consumer price inflation(av; %)

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0 World OECD Singapore

1211100908072006-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0 World OECD Singapore

1211100908072006

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0 OECD Singapore

12111009080720060

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000 World OECD Singapore

1211100908072006

Chemicals & chemical products

11.9%

Others37.9%

Miscellaneousmanufactured articles7.0%

Electroniccomponents

& parts23.2%

Mineral fuels20.0%

Others13.1%

Machinery &transport equipment

47.8%

Mineral fuels24.9%

Principal exports, 2009(share of total) (share of total)

Principal imports, 2009

Miscellaneousmanufacturedarticles6.9%

Manufacturedgoods7.3%

22 Singapore


Monthly trends charts Pl ea se se e g ra p hi c b el ow

Monthly trends charts

Price inflation (% change, year on year)

Monetary aggregates (% change, year on year)

Exchange rate (S$:US$; av; inverted scale)

Foreign-exchange reserves(US$ m)

Foreign trade (US$ m; goods only)

Oil: Brent crude price (US$/b; av)

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.



20

40

60

80

100

120

140

OctJul

AprJan10

OctJul

AprJan09

OctJul

AprJan08

OctJul2007

140,000

150,000

160,000

170,000

180,000

190,000

200,000

210,000

220,000

230,000

OctJul

AprJan10

OctJul

AprJan09

OctJul

AprJan08

OctJul2007

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0 M2 M1

OctJul

AprJan10

OctJul

AprJan09

OctJul

AprJan08

OctJul2007

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0 Producer prices Consumer prices

Jan11

OctJul

AprJan10

OctJul

AprJan09

OctJul

AprJan08

OctJul2007

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000 Balance Imports Exports

Jan11

OctJul

AprJan10

OctJul

AprJan09

OctJul

AprJan08

OctJul2007

1.55

1.50

1.45

1.40

1.35

1.30

1.25

Jan11

OctJul

AprJan10

OctJul

AprJan09

OctJul

AprJan08

OctJul2007

Singapore 23


Comparative economic indicators Pl ea se se e g ra p hi c b el ow

Comparative economic indicators, 2009

Gross domestic product(US$ bn; market exchange rates)

Gross domestic product(% change, year on year)

Consumer prices(% change, year on year)

Sources: Economist Intelligence Unit estimates; national sources.

Sources: Economist Intelligence Unit estimates; national sources.Sources: Economist Intelligence Unit estimates; national sources.

Sources: Economist Intelligence Unit estimates; national sources.

Gross domestic product per head(US$ '000; market exchange rates)

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Laos

Papua New Guinea

Cambodia

Myanmar

Sri Lanka

Bangladesh

Vietnam

New Zealand

Philippines

Pakistan

Singapore

Malaysia

Hong Kong

Thailand

Taiwan

Indonesia

South Korea

Australia

India

China

Japan

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0

Myanmar

Bangladesh

Cambodia

Pakistan

Laos

Vietnam

India

Papua New Guinea

Philippines

Sri Lanka

Indonesia

China

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

South Korea

New Zealand

Hong Kong

Singapore

Japan

Australia

-2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0

Japan

Taiwan

Thailand

China

Cambodia

Laos

Hong Kong

Malaysia

Singapore

Myanmar

Australia

New Zealand

South Korea

Philippines

Sri Lanka

Indonesia

Bangladesh

Papua New Guinea

Vietnam

India

Pakistan

-6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

Japan

Hong Kong

Thailand

Taiwan

Malaysia

Cambodia

Singapore

New Zealand

South Korea

Philippines

Australia

Myanmar

Sri Lanka

Pakistan

Indonesia

Vietnam

Papua New Guinea

Bangladesh

Laos

India

China

5,068.1

5,050.5

1,298.1

973.7

24 Singapore


Country snapshot

Basic data

710.2 sq km (including smaller islands)

5.1m (mid-2010 government estimate; 3.8m excluding non-residents)

Tropical

Hottest month, May, 24-32°C (average daily minimum and maximum); coldest month, January, 23-30°C; driest month, July, 70 mm average rainfall; wettest month, December, 244 mm average rainfall

English, Chinese, Malay and Tamil

The metric system is now predominant

Singapore dollar (S$); S$1 = 100 cents. Average exchange rates in 2010: S$1.36:US$1, S$1.55:¥100

8 hours ahead of GMT

January 1st (New Year�s Day); February 3rd-4th (Chinese New Year); April 22nd (Good Friday); May 17th (Vesak Day); May 2nd (Labour Day); August 9th (National Day); August 30th (Hari Raya Puasa); October 26th (Deepavali); November 7th (Hari Raya Haji); December 25th (Christmas Day, holiday taken on December 26th)

Climate

Weather (altitude 10 metres)

Languages

Measures

Currency

Time

Public holidays

Population

Land area

Singapore 25


Political structure

Republic of Singapore

Parliamentary democracy

The prime minister and the cabinet are appointed by the president and are responsible to parliament

The president, S R Nathan, took office for a six-year term in 2005

Unicameral parliament, which sits for five-year terms, currently has 84 elected members: nine members of parliament (MPs) are directly elected from single-member constituencies, and 75 are elected in teams of five or six to represent the 14 group representation constituencies (GRCs). At least one member of any group standing for a GRC must be of non-Chinese ethnicity. Currently, one non-constituency MP and nine nominated MPs also sit in parliament, but they have only limited voting rights

Courts of first instance ultimately lead, on appeal, to the Supreme Court, members of which are appointed by the president

The most recent general election took place in 2006; the next is due by February 2012

The ruling People�s Action Party (PAP) won 66.6% of the vote at the last election and holds 82 seats in parliament. The cabinet was reshuffled in November 2010

Government: PAP; opposition: Workers� Party (WP), Singapore Democratic Alliance (SDA), Singapore Democratic Party (SDP), Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)

Prime minister Lee Hsien Loong Minister mentor, Prime Minister�s Office Lee Kuan Yew Prime Minister�s Office Lim Swee Say Lim Boon Heng Lim Hwee Hua Senior ministers Goh Chok Tong Shunmugan Jayakumar Deputy prime minister & minister for defence Teo Chee Hean Deputy prime minister & minister for national security Wong Kan Seng

Communications, information & the arts Lui Tuck Yew Community development Vivian Balakrishnan Education Ng Eng Hen Environment Yacoob Ibrahim Finance Tharman Shanmugaratnam Foreign affairs George Yeo Health Khaw Boon Wan Home affairs & law K Shanmugam Manpower Gan Kim Yong National development Mah Bow Tan Trade & industry Lim Hng Kiang Transport Raymond Lim

Goh Chok Tong

Form of state

The executive

Head of state

National legislature

Legal system

National elections

National government

Main political organisations

Chairman of the Monetary Authority of Singapore

Official name

Key ministers

Main members of cabinet

singapore country profile economist intelligence unit - the economist apr 2011

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