singapore property weekly issue 30

8/3/2019 Singapore Property Weekly Issue 30

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Issue 30Copyright 2011 www.Propwise.sg. All Rights Reserved.
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CONTENTS

p2 Singapore Property News This Week

p7 A Look Back on 2011 and Looking

Forward to 2012

p14Resale Property Transactions

(November 26 December 2)

Welcome to the 30th edition

of the Singapore Property

Weekly.

Hope you like it!

Mr. Propwise

FROM THE

EDITOR
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3/16

SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 30

Singapore Property This Week

Page | 2Back to Contents

Residential

Increased demand of commercial and

industrial units expected

While sales for residential projects have been

slower since the introduction of the Additional

Buyer Stamp Duty (ABSD), there are stillsome buyers. Developers and agents selling

small strata-titled commercial and industrial

units are expecting increased demand from

investors who are unwilling to pay the ABSD,

and therefore are increasing their marketing

efforts. One such developer is Oxley

Holdings, which will launch five industrial,

commercial and commercial-cum-residential

developments over the next six months.

Far East Organization sold about 15 units at

its projects, while City Developments sold a

few units at 892-unit The Palette. Buyers

seemed to be waiting for the prices to drop

despite the stream of viewers at showflats

many did not buy anything. This is despite the

packages offered by developers such as Far

East Organization, Wing Tai Holdings and

City Developments to offset the ABSD.

Nonetheless, buyers who have purchased

units at The Palette or the 583-unit BedokResidences have not withdrawn their options

as a result of the ABSD.


4/16



80% of freehold Charlton Residences sold

even before official launch

Freehold three-storey Charlton Residences

developed by SingXpress Land Ltd has sold80% of its units even before its official launch

in January 2012 despite the new governmental

measures. This may be due to its affordable

pricing and location, being near Kovan MRT

Station and schools. Units ranging from 5,350

to 7,696 sq ft with 6 bedrooms and two carpark lots were sold at an average of $2.8

million per unit or about $500 psf.

Average condo size has decreased again

The average size based on gross floor area

(GFA) per home for private condo sites in boththe Rest of Central Region (RCR) and Outside

Central Region (OCR) has decreased by 5 sq

m to 85 sq m and 95 sq m respectively from

the H2 2011 programme to the H1 2012 GLS

Programme. The average home size for

executive condo (EC) sites however remains

unchanged at 100 sq m in OCR.

The space standards (the average GFA per

housing unit) used to estimate the number of

homes that can be generated from

Government Land Sales sites are regularly

reviewed, taking into account the sizes of

residential units in housing projects (includingECs) which have obtained planning approvals

in recent years. This helps to reduce the

possibility of underestimating the supply of

homes from the land it sells. There is also a

trend towards smaller average home sizes

with more singles living on their own. It may

also be due to the reduction of sizes of

electronic devices.


5/16



Sing Holdings buys its 4th Robin Road site

The freehold 16-unit apartment development

located at 2 to 8 Robin Road was sold at $52

million or $1,46 psf ppr based on an allowable

plot ratio of 1.54, including balconies. The site

has a maximum allowable height of five

storeys and could yield a gross floor area of

around 135,462.4 square feet. This is the 4 th

Robin Road site purchased by the developer,

bringing the cumulative purchase price and

total land area to $176.3 million and 87,962.6

sq ft respectively. The site is located near

upcoming Stevens MRT station, and popular

schools such as Singapore Chinese Girls'

Primary School.

Home sales to slow after Novembers rush

Private home sale was high in November but

this trend is unlikely to continue given the new

cooling measures which could slow sales by

20 to 30%.

The sales for private homes excluding ECs in

November were a 22.3% increase from

Octobers figures. However, with the cooling

measures in place sales could fall to 1,000

units or fewer per month and rise a little to

between 1,100 to 1,200 units after Chinese

New Year. The slower sales in December

could bring the total sale to last years level,

instead of the higher level expected before the

new measures.

Given the uncertain global economy and the

new measures, homes sales in are expected

to be between 9,000 and 11,000 units. The full

effect of the ABSD might only be seen in

February as most developers are adopting await and see approach. Prices of luxury/prime

residential properties and mass-market

homes could fall by 10 to 15% and 5 to 10%

respectively in 2012,


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whereas landed home prices may fall by less

than 5% given the limited supply and

restrictions on foreigners purchasing such

properties.

Bid prices for 99-year leasehold

residential site shows effect of cooling

measures

The provisional tender results the site near

Punggol MRT Station show that the cooling

measures implemented are working now.Despite the 13 bids it received, the top bid by

Wee Hur Development of $354.37 psf of

potential GFA was 12.8% lower than the $406

per square psf ppr that Sim Lian paid for a

nearby site in December last year. The

breakeven cost is about $740-760 psf sinceWee Hur is in the construction trade. Mass-

market condo prices might decrease by 10%

next year as a result of decreased demand

due to the ABSD. Nevertheless, the 13 bids

attracted by the site showed that developers

felt that the mass-market sector is less likely

to be affected by the ABSD, since buyers are

likely to be either HDB upgraders or first-time

private home buyers.

Commercial

Three 999-year conservation shophouses

at Liang Seah Street up for sale

The indicative price for the 2,694 sq ft site put

up for sale through an expression-of-interest

exercise is $30 million or $2,602 psf, based

on the total floor area of 11,529 sq ft. The part

three, part five-storey development served by

a passenger lift could be converted into a

hostel or a budget hotel. It is expected to

attract investors who wish to capitalise on its

location - near Bugis Junction area which will

attract retailers or investors who collect

conservation shophouses.


7/16



Freehold GRTH Building up for sale

22,147 sq ft seven-storey freehold GRTH

Building located at 66 East Coast Road is

asking for $82 million. Zoned for 'commercial'use, it has a gross plot ratio of up to 3.0 with

a potential gross floor area of 66,440 sq ft, it

could redeveloped into a commercial or

residential cum commercial development.

The selling price could increase from $1,094

psf ppr to $1,234 psf ppr if approval isgranted to purchase an adjoining 1,420 sq ft

plot of state land. The tender will close at

3pm on Feb 15, 2012.
http://www.moneymatters.sg/


8/16

SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY I 30


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their property purchase, while PRs buying a

second property and Singaporeans buying a

third property will have to pay an additional 3%

stamp duty.

I have been suggesting to those who are

looking to invest in the Singapore property

market to stay away as the price growth has

reached a point where it was starting to be

unsustainable. In the last few quarters, priceappreciation has been slowing down and my

companys indicator, the AAI, suggests that the

time is ripe for the index to come down from its

peak (see Figure 1).

Without going into the math behind the graphsand by simple observation, do you notice that

the URA PPPI index in the yellow zone after

each green zone is always contracting (see

the red boxes in Figure 1)? Looking at trends

that have occurred during the last 2

downturns, is it not reasonable to expect the

URA PPPI to behave in a similar way as

before? We suspect that the latest measures

will be the straw that breaks the camels back

and cause prices to start dropping.

Figure 1: Ascendant Assets Indicator(correct as at 2011Q3)

Source: URA and Ascendant Assets Pte Ltd



10/16



Overview of the Singapore Non-Residential

Property market

With more measures in place to dampen thedemand for private residential properties,

investors interest has shifted to the non-

residential property market. When we

compare the URA Index for Private

Residential Properties with Office Properties

in Figure 2 and Industrial Properties in Figure3, we can tell that prices for non-residential

properties have also risen. However, it can be

seen from the charts that there is still much

scope for non-residential property prices to

catch up with residential property prices.

Figure 2: Comparing URA Index for Private

Residential Properties with Office

Properties (1975Q1 to 2011Q2)




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Figure 3: Comparing URA Index for Private

Residential Properties with Industrial

Properties


So what is going to happen in 2012?

Many analysts have predicted that 2012 will

be a challenging year for the global and

Singapore economy. Even the Singapore

government has warned that Singapores GDP

is expected to be between 1% and 3% for the

next few years and unemployment rates will

likely increase in the near term.

How well the markets will perform will depend

a lot on how the European Union and United

States handle their mounting debt. Due to less

demand from the Western countries, Chinas

economy is also showing signs of a slowdown.

Compounding the concerns that the slowdown

would be severe, Chinas efforts to cool the

countrys property market are taking effect and

property prices in China have started to drop.

When we put all these factors together, the

property outlook for 2012 seems highly

precarious. There are many permutations on

how 2012 would pan out; however, this is how

I envisage the best- and worst-case scenario

to be



12/16



Best-Case Scenario: Private Property

Prices remain stable while Non-residential

Property Prices increase

Under the best-case scenario, countriesaffected by the sovereign debt crisis will flood

the global financial system with huge bouts

liquidity to avert any potential crisis. This will

be akin to actions taken during the 2008

Global Financial Crisis. If that happens, it is

foreseeable that much of these funds wouldfind its way to Singapore as the country is

internationally recognised as an investment

safe-haven.

With excess liquidity in the Singapore financial

system, mortgage rates will remain low andhomeowners will be able to hold on to their

properties without having to off load them at

fire-sale prices. As a result of the anti-

speculation measures already in place (and

even more that could come to prevent

irrational price escalation for private

properties), most of the new funds flowing into

the Singapore market will find their way into

the non-residential property market, i.e.commercial and industrial properties. As

prices in the non-residential markets have not

risen as much in the recent recovery, the

government will likely not take any drastic

action to cool those markets down. This will

cause assets in those markets to see asignificant increase in prices, making 2012 the

year for commercial and industrial properties.

Worst-Case Scenario: Singapore property

prices for all sectors tank

In todays world, all markets are closely

connected and no sector or country will be

unscathed. Under this scenario, it is

envisaged that the major economies are not



13/16



able to solve the financial issues and negative

sentiments tailspin out of control. Akin to what

happened in 2008, it is envisaged that lending

from financial institutions (FIs) slow to a trickle

as FIs do not want to increase their risk

exposures by making non-performing loans.

As a result, even though the demand for

property is still there, purchasers are unable

to proceed as they are not able to secure

financing. In addition, a drop in commercial

asset valuation would likely be triggered by a

drop in rental income from the slow down of

business activities while the drop in residential

valuation would be triggered by a sizable

exodus of foreigners and PRs who are notable to find work. When a severe recession

hits Singapore, no property sector will be

unaffected. This can be inferred from the high

correlation between the URA indexes for

private property, industrial property, office

space and shop space (see Figure 4).

Figure 4: Correlation


Conclusion

When the ABSD was announced, someproperty analysts had forecasted that prices

could drop by as much as 30%. This is not an

entirely outrageous projection as the



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URA PPPI dropped by about 25% during the

2008 Global Financial Crisis while prices

dropped by 45% during the 1997 Asian

Financial Crisis. Investor concern is palpable

after the recent round of cooling measures

was announced.

However, if we look past the doom and

gloom, it means that there are opportunities in

the horizon. Warren Buffett famously

commented, I simply attempt to be fearful

when others are greedy and greedy when

others are fearful. With so much uncertainty

in the air, perhaps it is timely for those holding

on to excess liquidity to start shopping

around.

By Getty Goh, Director ofAscendant Assets,

a real estate research and investment

consultancy firm.

http://www.ascendantassets.com/http://www.propwise.sg/advertise/http://www.ascendantassets.com/http://www.ascendantassets.com/http://www.ascendantassets.com/


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Non-Landed Residential Resale Property Transactions for the Week of Nov 26 Dec 2

Postal

DistrictProject Name

Area

(sqft)

Transacted

Price ($)

Price

($ psf)Tenure

1 THE SAIL @ MARINA BAY 1,033 2,980,000 2,884 99

2 ICON 570 1,008,888 1,768 99

3 CENTRAL GREEN CONDOMINIUM 947 1,050,000 1,108 99

5 ISLAND VIEW 3,595 3,700,000 1,029 FH

8 CITYLIGHTS 893 1,283,000 1,436 99

9 RIVERGATE 1,507 3,100,000 2,057 FH

9 WATERMARK ROBERTSON QUAY 1,076 1,950,000 1,812 FH

9 TIARA 1,507 2,450,000 1,626 FH

9 ASPEN HEIGHTS 1,324 1,980,000 1,495 999

9 EMILY RESIDENCE 667 980,000 1,468 FH

10 FOUR SEASONS PARK 2,874 8,100,000 2,818 FH

10 NASSIM JADE 2,260 5,300,000 2,345 FH

10 BELMOND GREEN 969 1,750,000 1,806 FH

10 BOTANIC GARDENS MANSION 1,755 3,033,000 1,729 FH

10 ASTRID MEADOWS 1,690 2,670,000 1,580 FH

10 ASTRID MEADOWS 2,433 3,688,000 1,516 FH

10 CHELSEA GARDENS 2,508 3,750,000 1,495 FH

10 JERVOIS LODGE 958 1,380,000 1,441 FH

10 TANGLIN REGENCY 883 1,236,200 1,401 99

10 NATHAN PLACE 1,464 2,000,000 1,366 FH10 GLENTREES 2,594 3,380,000 1,303 999

10 THE LEGEND 1,496 1,900,000 1,270 FH

10 ALLSWORTH PARK 1,959 2,300,000 1,174 999

11 THE AXIS 1,141 1,450,000 1,271 FH

11 MANDALE HEIGHTS 764 970,000 1,269 FH

Postal


Area

(sqft)

Transacted

Price ($)

Price

($ psf)Tenure

11 THE ARCADIA 6,566 6,850,000 1,043 99

14 SUNFLOWER MANSIONS 1,087 850,000 782 FH

14 WANG LODGE 1,012 685,000 677 FH

14 WING FONG MANSIONS 1,238 825,000 666 FH

15 PEBBLE BAY 2,766 4,600,000 1,663 99

15 THE SEAFRONT ON MEYER 1,615 2,600,000 1,610 FH

15 SUITES @ AMBER 635 995,000 1,567 FH

15 ESTERINA 517 680,000 1,316 FH

15 COTE D'AZUR 1,141 1,350,000 1,183 99

15 PALM OASIS 753 850,000 1,128 FH

15 HAIG COURT 1,442 1,555,000 1,078 FH

15 TANJONG RIA CONDOMINIUM 1,281 1,250,000 976 99

15 POH HENG COURT 1,701 1,630,000 958 FH

15 VERSAILLES 1,485 1,328,000 894 FH

15 MANDARIN GARDEN CONDOMINIUM 2,024 1,805,000 892 99

15 UNITED MANSION 1,238 1,100,000 889 FH

15 NEPTUNE COURT 1,270 1,100,000 866 99

15 VILLA MARINA 1,087 920,000 846 99

15 TORIE MANSIONS 1,442 1,188,000 824 FH

16 CASA MERAH 1,572 1,510,800 961 9916 THE BAYSHORE 1,012 920,000 909 99

16 THE BAYSHORE 1,184 1,050,000 887 99

16 EASTWOOD GREEN 1,173 950,000 810 99

16 CASCADALE 1,550 1,140,000 735 FH

17 JLB RESIDENCES 1,442 1,360,000 943 946



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NOTE: This data only covers non-landed residential resale propertytransactions with caveats lodged with the Singapore LandAuthority. Typically, caveats are lodged at least 2-3 weeks after apurchaser signs an OTP, hence the lagged nature of the data.

Postal


Area

(sqft)

Transacted

Price ($)

Price

($ psf)Tenure

17 WATERCREST 829 735,000 887 999

17 AVILA GARDENS 1,755 1,278,000 728 FH

18 RIS GRANDEUR 1,292 1,120,888 868 FH

18 MELVILLE PARK 1,345 960,000 713 99

18 MELVILLE PARK 1,399 950,000 679 99

19 CHILTERN PARK 1,249 1,190,000 953 99

19 8 EDEN GROVE 1,066 988,000 927 FH

19 CHERRYHILL 1,270 1,150,000 905 FH

19 KOVAN ESQUIRE 1,087 980,000 901 FH

19 CASA RIVIERA 1,238 1,100,000 889 FH

19 REGENTVILLE 980 750,000 766 99

19 RIO VISTA 1,249 938,000 751 99

20 BISHAN POINT 1,270 1,168,000 920 99

20 GRANDEUR 8 2,314 2,000,000 864 99

20 BRADDELL VIEW 1,701 1,325,000 779 99

20 BRADDELL VIEW 1,798 1,250,000 695 99

21 GARDENVISTA 1,345 1,670,000 1,241 99

21 GARDENVISTA 1,130 1,340,000 1,186 99

21 SIGNATURE PARK 1,701 1,850,000 1,088 FH

21 CLEMENTI PARK 1,345 1,325,000 985 FH

21 PARC PALAIS 1,636 1,530,000 935 FH

21 REGIS MANSIONS 1,206 850,000 705 FH

22 THE LAKESHORE 1,270 1,190,000 937 99

22 THE MAYFAIR 1,356 1,080,000 796 99

22 PARC VISTA 1,249 925,000 741 99

22 IVORY HEIGHTS 1,701 1,190,000 700 100

22 LAKESIDE TOWER 3,875 1,570,000 405 99

Postal


Area

(sqft)

Transacted

Price ($)

Price

($ psf)Tenure

23 MAYSPRINGS 807 730,000 904 99

23 GLENDALE PARK 1,367 1,200,000 878 FH

23 HILLVIEW REGENCY 947 820,000 866 99

23 HAZEL PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,335 1 ,100,000 824 99923 THE WARREN 1,206 940,000 780 99

23 GUILIN VIEW 1,259 980,000 778 99

23 HILLTOP GROVE 1,238 958,888 775 99

23 NORTHVALE 1,173 840,000 716 99

23 REGENT GROVE 1,163 823,000 708 99

25 CASABLANCA 1,119 885,000 791 99

26 SEASONS PARK 1,044 835,000 800 99

singapore property weekly issue 30

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