singapore property weekly issue 73

7/31/2019 Singapore Property Weekly Issue 73

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Issue 73Copyright 2011-2012 www.Propwise.sg. All Rights Reserved.
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CONTENTS

p2 Has Private or Public Housing Performed Better?

p6 New Book Timing the Property Market

p10 Singapore Property News This Week

p15 Resale Property Transactions

(September 26 October 2)

Welcome to the 73th edition

of the Singapore Property

Weekly.

Hope you like it!

Mr. Propwise

FROM THE

EDITOR
mailto:[email protected]://www.propwise.sg/advertise/http://www.propwise.sg/advertise/mailto:[email protected]


3/18

SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 73

Page | 2Back to Contents

Has Private or Public Housing Performed Better?

By Mr. Propwise

With more than 80% of the resident

population in Singapore being housed in

Housing Development Board (HDB) flats, the

supply and pricing of public housing is a

significant factor that affects the demand for

and hence pricing of private housing. In this

article we will look at the relative price

performance of private (as represented by the

URA Private Residential PPI) and public (as

represented by the HDB Resale Price Index)housing.


4/18



From Figure 2.2.1a, we can see that the

Private PPI had massively outperformed theHDB Resale Price Index (RPI) until the end of

1994, when the outperformance rapidly

contracted. Since then, it has moved largely in

line with the HDB RPI, but in a more volatile

fashion. As of 2012Q2 the PPI stood at 206.9

versus the HDB RPI of 194.

Except for a sharp spike in the HDB ResalePrice Index in 1993Q2-Q3 as the government

moved to market-based pricing for public

housing, HDB prices have tended to be


5/18



less volatile (especially on the downside)

versus the Private PPI (Figure 2.2.1b). In

2012Q2, the PPI rose by 0.4% while the HDB

Resale Price Index had a 1.3% gain.

The premium of the URA PPI has fallen from

close to 100% in the early 1990s to 6.6% in

2012Q2, way below the historical average of

34.9% (since 1990Q1), making HDB flats look

relatively expensive versus private property on

a historical comparison.

Looking at the compounded annual growthrates

Another way to look at this issue is to

calculate the compounded annualized growth

rates of the PPI versus the HDB Resale Price

Index. Over a 22-year period from 1990Q1 to

2012Q2, the PPI gained 5.8% per year versusthe HDB Resale Price Index which gained

7.9% per year. Thus it is clear that HDB flats

have appreciated significantly more than

private property during this time period.

The issue is that given where the relative

affordability of private property versus HDB

flats is currently, the same might no longer

hold true fortodays buyers of public housing.


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Certainly there are quality differences to be

taken into account (HDB flats today are

almost of a similar quality to private property,

except without facilities), but it should no

longer be an automatic assumption that HDB

flats will continue to outperform private

property as they have in the past two

decades.

This article is adapted from Timing the

Property Market Invest Profitably inSingapore Real Estate By Using Market

Cycles and Insights, a new book by Mr.

Propwise.
http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/


7/18



New Book Timing the Property Market

By Mr. Propwise If youre interested in profitable propertyinvestment, youd want to know the best time

to enter and exit the market; the most

attractive areas and projects to invest in;

whether to buy residential or non-residential,

freehold or leasehold, landed or non-

landed and youd have many more suchquestions.

The problem Ive found is that there are very

few good and objective sources of

information available to help property

investors make good decisions. Just reading

news reports can be very confusing one

moment you hear about the record prices set

at a new launch, the next you hear about the

huge upcoming supply crashing prices.

SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY I 73


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As one reader put it, were always constantly

on the verge of prices going both up and

down!

You also cannot (and should not) rely solely

on what your property agent tells you. While

there are many honest professional agents

out there, lets be realistic and say they have

an inherent conflict of interest they make

their money by getting you to transact, not by

helping you to make a good decision.

That was one of the main reasons why I

started Propwise.sg, a Singapore property

blog dedicated to helping you understand the

real estate market and make better buying,

selling, renting and investing decisions. You

can find most of the basic knowledge youneed to get started there.

Introducing Timing the Property Market

Timing the Property Market Invest Profitably

in Singapore Real Estate By Using Market

Cycles and Insights takes it up a notch by

doing a deep dive into the real estate data to

help property investors time their property

purchases for maximum profit and minimumdownside. Most of the charts and data are

taken from PropertyMarketInsights.com, a

web-based research and analysis

membership site that covers all segments of

the Singapore property market.

PropertyMarketInsights.coms goal is to helpbuyers and sellers make profitable investment

decisions by providing them with

professional-level analysis at a very

reasonable cost.

This book is split into six sections covering:

Overall Market Analysis

Non-Landed Residential Property

Landed Residential Property

SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY I 73
http://propwise.sg/http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://propwise.sg/http://propwise.sg/http://propwise.sg/


9/18



Residential Areas and Projects

Commercial and Industrial Property

Finding Attractive Property Investments

I believe that even seasoned property

investors will learn a thing or two by reading

this book, as Ive not seen some of the

analyses in this book done anywhere else. By

timing your property investment at the right

part of the cycle, you can avoid costly

mistakes that could set you back years, and

potentially add hundreds of thousands of

dollars to your net worth.

On a personal note, Id like to thank all

readers of Propwise.sg for your continuedsupport over the past two years. Going

forward, we have exciting plans lined up for

more interesting content and also bringing on

other expert voices in the property market. I

sincerely hope that this site and its contenthave been helpful to you.

Click here to read a sample chapter and to

buy the e-book version ofTiming the Property

Market. Published by Aktive Learning, thepaperback version will be available at major

bookstores by late October and retails at

S$28 + GST. AllPropertyMarketInsights.com

subscribers will get a FREE e-book copy of

this book.

http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://aktive.com.sg/http://propertymarketinsights.com/propwisesghttp://propertymarketinsights.com/propwisesghttp://propertymarketinsights.com/propwisesghttp://propertymarketinsights.com/propwisesghttp://aktive.com.sg/http://aktive.com.sg/http://aktive.com.sg/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/http://propertymarketinsights.com/timing-the-property-market/


10/18



http://www.erc.com.sg/eblastimages/pptylanding/pptylanding.html


11/18


Singapore Property This Week


ResidentialGood turnout at show flats

Potential buyers are undeterred by new

cooling measures as evident by the good

traffic at show flats of newly launched

projects such as Riversails at UpperSerangoon View and Skies Miltonia at

Yishun. Over 300 units at Allgreen Properties'

920-unit Riversails have been sold, with at

least 20 units sold over the weekend. 67% of

units at the 420-unit Skies Miltonia have also

been sold. This reflects the positivesentiment in the market.

(Source: Business Times)

Good Class Bungalow transactionvolumes fall in Q3

Transactions volume in GCBAs fell from 18

transactions at $358.8 million in Q2 to 14

transactions at $285.1 million in Q3. The

recent cooling measures (cap on housing

loan tenure, lower LTV ratio) are unlikely to

have an impact on GCB buyers who tends to

be high-net worth individuals. The slowdown

in Q3 could be due to the pent-up demand

being fulfilled in Q2, or a residual effect of the

SSD introduced early in 2011.The current

transaction volume year-to-date stands at 41

transactions at $868 million and may hit 50 to

55 transactions totalling $1 billion



12/18



to $1.1 billion by end-2012 if there are three

to four GCBs deals each month. Prices are

expected to remain stable.


Adjacent Chee Hoon freehold GCB

parcels up for sale

The two adjacent land parcels (18,989 sq ft

and 26,166 sq ft) located at Jalan Asuhan, off

University Road in the Chee Hoon Avenue

Good Class Bungalow Area are asking for

$1,600-$1,800 psf or $72.2 million to $81.3

million by private treaty. Buyers have the

option of purchasing one or both parcels,

which offers a panoramic view since it is one

of the highest points in the area. It is

accessible via Dunearn, Bukit Timah and

Adam roads.


99-year leasehold Woodlands EC site

attract $150.2m top bid

The site at Woodlands Avenue 6 and

Woodlands Drive 16 drew a top bid of

$150.18 million, or $302 psf ppr from a 70-30

Opal Star - Binjai Holdings joint venture,

beating out four other bidders. The plan is to

build eight 12-storey residential blocks with a

total of 447 units consisting of mainly three-

and four-bedroom units. The estimated

breakeven cost and selling price are $600-

650 psf and $680-730 psf respectively.


HSR: residential prices to slow in Q4, but

unlikely to fall in next 12 months

Before the announcement of the 35-year cap

on loan tenures and lower LTV ratios, HDB

resale prices and private non-landed homes



13/18



prices are expected to increase by 2-2.5%

and 0.8% next quarter respectively. However,

with the introduction of the new cooling

measures, these will fall to a 0.5% and 0-

0.5% increase respectively. While prices areunlikely to fall given the low interest rate and

market liquidity, sales may slow as some

buyers (though a negligible umber) are priced

out by the higher monthly instalments from

the lower loan tenure, and other buyers

postpone buying until the market correctsitself.


Commercial

Prime office rents slip further even as

vacancies fall

Despite the fall in Grade A vacancies from

7.9% in Q2 to 6.8% in Q3 (11.8% to 9.8% in

Marina Bay sub-market; 1.5% to 2% in

Orchard Road), the overall Grade A rent

declined by 3.6% to $9.13 psf in Q3, with the

biggest fall of 2.5% and 3.9% in Marina Bay

and Raffles Place respectively. Rents in the

City Hall and Marina Centre vicinity declined1.8%. The fall in vacancies is encouraging

given the slower economic growth and

uncertain global economy and despite the

falling rental rates, the decline is slower than

in the first half of the year. While a further fall

in vacancies that would help to stabilise rentsin the CBD is expected, the upcoming 1.2

million sq ft of vacant space over the next 6

months would prevent short-term recovery.


Increasing resale prices of industrialspace points to speculation

Resale industrial prices for first-storey

conventional industrial space and



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upper-storey industrial space climbed 4% to

$600 psf and 3.5% to $445 psf in Q3 from Q2

respectively while rents for the former and the

latter remained stable at $2.15 psf per month

and $1.75 psf per month respectively. Hi-techindustrial rents increased slightly by 0.07%

from Q2 to $3 psf per month in Q3. The

increasing resale prices points to an increase

in speculation in the industrial property sector,

which may be due to the lack of a seller's

stamp duty for commercial properties thatimposes a penalty on buyers who sell their

units within a short period of time, and the

lower overall quantum of such properties.

Furthermore, there are more investors

shifting from residential to industrial

properties since they have the highest yieldsand interest remains low, thus offering high

returns. While some believes that the market

is not overheated yet and does not need

more cooling measures, citing increased

demand and better locations as alternative

reasons for rising prices, others suggests that

speculation crowding out genuine

industrialists may lead to the government

introducing measures such as seller's stampduty or limits to the LTV ratio.


Business park sector to remain stable

The average rents for business and science

parks in Q3 2012 are $3.70 psf per month,the same as Q2 while the vacancy rates

slipped from 7.5% in Q2 to 6.9% in Q3. This

is due to the companies high pre-

commitment to the upcoming space, the

relocation of MNCs from the CBD to business

parks seeking lower rental rates. This sector

is expected remain stable for the next three to

six months with lease renewals, tenant

upgrades from old to newer buildings,



15/18



despite an upcoming 1.04 million sq ft NLA in

Q4 since 71% of the upcoming space are pre-

committed.


Jalan Sultan mixed-use site draws

$331.34m top bid

The 0.84 hectare site zoned for hotel

development or commercial and residential

development and located at the corner ofJalan Sultan and Victoria Street attracted a

top bid of $331.34 million, or $993.71 psf ppr

from Forward Land, beating out eight other

bids. The top bid is 8.3% higher than the next

highest bid. 60% of the 333,433 sq ft

maximum allowable GFA which can generatearound 650 hotel rooms will be for hotel use

with the rest for commercial purpose, in line

with URAs guidelines for hotel development.

Some thought the bid aggressive but

estimates the 5% net yield based on a

$460,000 breakeven cost per hotel room and

current room rates at V Hotel Lavender, a

hotel under Forward Land. Furthermore, hotel

room rates for this segment are expected to

improve, and demand to come from benefit

from sports tourism with the completion of

Sports Hub in the future. Others however

thought the bid reasonable for its location and

permitted uses, being located near Lavender

MRT station and a few stops from the city

centre with nearby amenities.




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S G O O ssue 3


Non-Landed Residential Resale Property Transactions for the Week of Sep 26 Oct 2

Postal

DistrictProject Name

Area

(sqft)

Transacted

Price ($)

Price

($ psf)Tenure

2 THE BEACON 1,109 1,550,000 1,398 99

2 THE BEACON 1,163 1,530,000 1,316 99

3 CENTRAL GREEN CONDOMINIUM 1,292 1,630,000 1,262 99

3 EMERALD PARK 926 1,030,000 1,113 99

4 CARIBBEAN AT KEPPEL BAY 1,249 1,900,000 1,522 99

5 VENTANA 1,270 1,590,000 1,252 FH

5 DOVER PARKVIEW 936 970,000 1,036 99

5 VILLA DE WEST 1,012 1,025,000 1,013 FH

7 BURLINGTON SQUARE 667 918,000 1,376 99

8 CITYLIGHTS 721 1,226,000 1,700 99

8 MERA SPRINGS 1,550 2,080,000 1,342 FH

8 KERRISDALE 1,259 1,510,000 1,199 99

8 URBAN LOFTS 786 930,000 1,184 FH

9 PATERSON SUITES 1,679 4,790,000 2,853 FH

9 SCOTTS 28 1,733 4,028,888 2,325 FH

9 THE TRILLIUM 1,399 3,217,700 2,299 FH

9 RIVERIA GARDENS 1,432 2,960,000 2,068 FH

9 URBANA 1,313 2,626,000 2,000 FH

9 THE INSPIRA 936 1,860,000 1,986 FH

9 CAIRNHILL CREST 1,733 3,300,000 1,904 FH

9 TRIBECA 1,378 2,500,000 1,814 FH

9 ASPEN HEIGHTS 1,324 2,118,000 1,600 999

9 WATERFORD RESIDENCE 1,044 1,630,000 1,561 999

9 UE SQUARE 1,055 1,635,250 1,550 929

10 ORION 1,776 4,100,000 2,308 FH

Postal


Area

(sqft)

Transacted

Price ($)

Price

($ psf)Tenure

10 J C DRAYCOTT 850 1,800,000 2,117 FH

10 CUSCADEN RESIDENCES 1,496 3,150,000 2,105 FH

10 ORION 1,507 3,080,000 2,044 FH

10 SOMMERVILLE PARK 624 1,080,000 1,730 FH

10 SHANGHAI ONE 560 880,000 1,572 FH

10 JERVOIS LODGE 1,238 1,940,000 1,567 FH

10 KASTURINA LODGE 797 1,218,000 1,529 FH

10 WARNER COURT 1,195 1,760,000 1,473 FH

10 VILLAGE TOWER 1,830 2,600,000 1,421 FH

10 GLENTREES 1,991 2,800,000 1,406 999

10 DORMER PARK 1,238 1,700,000 1,373 FH

10 OLINA LODGE 1,281 1,750,000 1,366 FH

10 THE SIERRA 1,206 1,510,000 1,253 947

11 SKY@ELEVEN 2,713 4,612,100 1,700 FH

11 THE LINCOLN RESIDENCES 1,841 3,059,000 1 ,662 FH

11 THOMSON EURO-ASIA 1,130 1,830,000 1,619 FH

11 ADAM PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,173 1,410,000 1,202 FH

11 MINBU COURT 1,270 1,380,000 1,086 FH

12 DE ROYALE 1,281 1,730,000 1,351 FH

12 PARC HAVEN 452 590,000 1,305 FH

12 ONE ST MICHAEL'S 1,259 1,478,000 1,174 FH

12 RIO GARDENS 947 985,000 1,040 FH

12 ROCCA BALESTIER 1,109 1,108,000 999 FH

13 ONE LEICESTER 1,249 1,600,000 1,281 FH

13 WAN THO LODGE 1,152 1,068,000 927 FH



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Postal


Area

(sqft)

Transacted

Price ($)

Price

($ psf)Tenure

14 ATRIUM RESIDENCES 1,819 1,280,000 704 FH

15 THE SEAFRONT ON MEYER 1,604 2,620,000 1,634 FH

15 MEYER RESIDENCE 904 1,370,000 1,515 FH

15 THE COTZ 452 660,000 1,460 FH

15 ONE AMBER 1,259 1,780,000 1,413 FH

15 SANCTUARY GREEN 1,141 1,400,000 1,227 99

15 HAIG COURT 1,442 1,730,000 1,199 FH

15 COSTA ESTE 861 955,000 1,109 FH

15 SANDALWOOD 1,184 1,200,000 1,013 FH

15 AMBER RESIDENCES 5,113 5,113,000 1,000 FH

15 PARK EAST 1,722 1,720,000 999 FH

15 COSTA RHU 1,399 1,364,327 975 99

15 PARK COURT 926 868,000 938 FH

15 THE GERANIUM 1,701 1,540,000 906 FH15 PINEHURST CONDOMINIUM 1,302 1,180,000 906 FH

15 NEPTUNE COURT 1,270 1,150,000 905 99

15 MARSHALL LODGE 1,776 1,600,000 901 FH

15 MARSHALL LODGE 1,776 1,570,000 884 FH

15 NEPTUNE COURT 1,270 1,070,000 842 99

15 D' FRESCO 2,928 2,350,000 803 FH

15 PALM VISTA 1,927 1,535,000 797 FH

15 NEPTUNE COURT 1,270 1,000,000 787 99

16 CASA MERAH 1,572 1,750,000 1,114 9916 THE BAYSHORE 1,184 1,270,000 1,073 99

16 BAYSHORE PARK 936 995,000 1,063 99

16 THE BAYSHORE 1,184 1,218,000 1,029 99

16 LUCKY COURT 1,302 1,280,000 983 FH

16 CHANGI COURT 969 950,000 981 FH

Postal


Area

(sqft)

Transacted

Price ($)

Price

($ psf)Tenure

16 LAGUNA GREEN 1,550 1,515,000 977 99

16 THE BAYSHORE 1,023 934,000 913 99

16 THE TANAMERA 1,324 1,138,000 860 99

17 CARISSA PARK CONDOMINIUM 624 670,000 1,073 FH

17 FERRARIA PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,356 1,350,000 995 FH

17 FERRARIA PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,378 1,260,000 915 FH

17 ESTELLA GARDENS 1,292 1,060,000 821 FH

17 AZALEA PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,335 1,055,000 790 999

18 LIVIA 883 888,000 1,006 99

18 THE TROPICA 990 884,000 893 99

18 THE TROPICA 1,238 1,075,000 868 99

18 CHANGI RISE CONDOMINIUM 1,259 1 ,070,000 850 99

18 MELVILLE PARK 958 740,000 772 99

18 TAMPINES COURT 1,679 1,070,000 637 10118 ELIAS GREEN 1,528 970,000 635 99

19 STADIA 861 1,018,000 1,182 FH

19 FONTAINE PARRY 1,206 1,390,000 1,153 999

19 T HE SPRINGBLOOM 1,119 1,170,000 1,045 99

19 COMPASS HEIGHTS 1,249 1,150,000 921 99

19 SIMON PLAZA 1,615 1,400,000 867 FH

19 REGENTVILLE 1,152 960,000 834 99

19 THE SPRINGBLOOM 1,873 1,560,000 833 99

19 CASA ROSA 2,045 1,500,000 733 9919 CHERRY GARDENS 2,110 1,475,000 699 99

20 COUNTRY GRANDEUR 1,442 1,750,000 1,213 FH

20 BISHAN 8 1,163 1,405,000 1,209 99

20 GRANDEUR 8 1,109 1,100,000 992 99

20 SIN MING PLAZA 2,131 1,750,000 821 FH



18/18


NOTE: This data only covers non-landed residential resale propertytransactions with caveats lodged with the Singapore LandAuthority. Typically, caveats are lodged at least 2-3 weeks after apurchaser signs an OTP, hence the lagged nature of the data.

Postal


Area

(sqft)

Transacted

Price ($)

Price

($ psf)Tenure

20 FAR HORIZON GARDENS 1,378 1,100,000 798 99

20 BRADDELL VIEW 1,798 1,410,000 784 99

20 THE GARDENS AT BISHAN 1,798 1,400,000 779 99

20 FAR HORIZON GARDENS 1,152 895,000 777 99

21 THE CASCADIA 883 1,525,000 1,728 FH

21 THE CASCADIA 990 1,627,000 1,643 FH

21 MAPLEWOODS 1,787 2,500,000 1,399 FH

21 FREESIA WOODS 1,421 1,788,000 1,258 FH

21 THE HILLSIDE 1,044 1,120,000 1,073 FH

21 ROYAL COURT 1,055 1,090,000 1,033 FH

21 SIGNATURE PARK 1,399 1,364,000 975 FH

22 THE CENTRIS 872 1,027,780 1,179 99

22 THE LAKESHORE 1,109 1,220,000 1,100 99

22 THE LAKESHORE 1,119 1,220,000 1,090 99

22 PARC VISTA 1,076 980,000 910 99

22 PARC VISTA 1,270 1,000,000 787 99

23 ESPA 904 980,000 1,084 999

23 HILLVIEW PARK 1,227 1,200,000 978 FH

23 THE WARREN 1,356 1,300,000 959 99

23 HILLVIEW 128 1,055 908,888 862 999

23 HILLVIEW APARTMENTS 1,206 980,000 813 FH

23 HILLTOP GROVE 1,238 980,000 792 99

23 NORTHVALE 1,518 1,090,000 718 99

23 REGENT GROVE 1,550 1,085,000 700 9923 NORTHVALE 1,658 1,020,000 615 99
http://propertymarketinsights.com/

singapore property weekly issue 73

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