single electricity market update liam ryan semo. background 2 years in operation gross mandatory...
TRANSCRIPT
Single Electricity Market Update
Liam Ryan
SEMO
Participants in the SEM• Registered Capacity in the Market: 9899 MW
– Thermal plant 8191 MM– Wind 1186MW – Pumped Storage 292 MW – Hydro 216 MW– Biomass 14 MW
– 50 Participants have registered in SEM– 8 new Participants have joined the SEM in 2009
• 42 Participants have registered Generator Units
Financial SummaryNovember 07 to September 08
11 mthsEUR m
October 08 to August 0911 mthsEUR m
% Change
Energy Payments
€ 2,626 €1,831 -30%
Constraints €116 €93 -19.8%
Capacity €442 €553 25%
€3,183 €2,477 -22%
Avg. Daily SMP 2008 v 2009
Ex-Post Initial Market - 2009
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Trading Periods
Sy
stem
Lo
ad
(M
W)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Sy
stem
Ma
rgin
a P
rice
(€
/MW
h)
System Load
SMP
• Year to date Demand Reduction
SMP to Gas Prices 2008/2009
€0.00
€20.00
€40.00
€60.00
€80.00
€100.00
€120.0001/0
1/2
008
01/0
2/2
008
01/0
3/2
008
01/0
4/2
008
01/0
5/2
008
01/0
6/2
008
01/0
7/2
008
01/0
8/2
008
01/0
9/2
008
01/1
0/2
008
01/1
1/2
008
01/1
2/2
008
01/0
1/2
009
01/0
2/2
009
01/0
3/2
009
01/0
4/2
009
01/0
5/2
009
01/0
6/2
009
01/0
7/2
009
01/0
8/2
009
01/0
9/2
009
Trading Month
Mo
nth
ly V
olu
me
Weig
hte
d A
vera
ge
SM
P (
€)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Mo
nth
ly A
vera
ge
Gas P
rice (
£)
Volume Weighted Average SMP (€) Average Gas Price (£)
Mon
thly
Vol
. Wei
ghte
d A
vera
ge S
MP
(€/
MW
h)
Mon
thly
Ave
rage
Gas
Pri
ce (
pen
ce p
er T
her
m)
Month
WIND – Metered Quantity v Installed Capacity
33% Load factor
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
01/0
1/2
00
802/0
1/2
00
803/0
1/2
00
804/0
1/2
00
805/0
1/2
00
806/0
1/2
00
807/0
1/2
00
808/0
1/2
00
809/0
1/2
00
810/0
1/2
00
811/0
1/2
00
812/0
1/2
00
813/0
1/2
00
814/0
1/2
00
815/0
1/2
00
816/0
1/2
00
817/0
1/2
00
818/0
1/2
00
819/0
1/2
00
820/0
1/2
00
821/0
1/2
00
822/0
1/2
00
823/0
1/2
00
824/0
1/2
00
825/0
1/2
00
826/0
1/2
00
827/0
1/2
00
828/0
1/2
00
829/0
1/2
00
830/0
1/2
00
831/0
1/2
00
801/0
2/2
00
802/0
2/2
00
803/0
2/2
00
804/0
2/2
00
805/0
2/2
00
806/0
2/2
00
807/0
2/2
00
808/0
2/2
00
809/0
2/2
00
810/0
2/2
00
811/0
2/2
00
812/0
2/2
00
813/0
2/2
00
814/0
2/2
00
815/0
2/2
00
816/0
2/2
00
817/0
2/2
00
818/0
2/2
00
819/0
2/2
00
820/0
2/2
00
821/0
2/2
00
822/0
2/2
00
823/0
2/2
00
824/0
2/2
00
825/0
2/2
00
826/0
2/2
00
827/0
2/2
00
828/0
2/2
00
829/0
2/2
00
801/0
3/2
00
802/0
3/2
00
803/0
3/2
00
804/0
3/2
00
805/0
3/2
00
806/0
3/2
00
807/0
3/2
00
808/0
3/2
00
809/0
3/2
00
810/0
3/2
00
811/0
3/2
00
812/0
3/2
00
813/0
3/2
00
814/0
3/2
00
815/0
3/2
00
816/0
3/2
00
817/0
3/2
00
818/0
3/2
00
819/0
3/2
00
820/0
3/2
00
821/0
3/2
00
822/0
3/2
00
823/0
3/2
00
824/0
3/2
00
825/0
3/2
00
826/0
3/2
00
827/0
3/2
00
828/0
3/2
00
829/0
3/2
00
830/0
3/2
00
831/0
3/2
00
801/0
4/2
00
802/0
4/2
00
803/0
4/2
00
804/0
4/2
00
805/0
4/2
00
806/0
4/2
00
807/0
4/2
00
808/0
4/2
00
809/0
4/2
00
810/0
4/2
00
811/0
4/2
00
812/0
4/2
00
813/0
4/2
00
814/0
4/2
00
815/0
4/2
00
816/0
4/2
00
817/0
4/2
00
818/0
4/2
00
819/0
4/2
00
820/0
4/2
00
821/0
4/2
00
822/0
4/2
00
823/0
4/2
00
824/0
4/2
00
825/0
4/2
00
826/0
4/2
00
827/0
4/2
00
828/0
4/2
00
829/0
4/2
00
830/0
4/2
00
801/0
5/2
00
802/0
5/2
00
803/0
5/2
00
804/0
5/2
00
805/0
5/2
00
806/0
5/2
00
807/0
5/2
00
808/0
5/2
00
809/0
5/2
00
810/0
5/2
00
811/0
5/2
00
812/0
5/2
00
813/0
5/2
00
814/0
5/2
00
815/0
5/2
00
816/0
5/2
00
817/0
5/2
00
818/0
5/2
00
819/0
5/2
00
820/0
5/2
00
821/0
5/2
00
822/0
5/2
00
823/0
5/2
00
824/0
5/2
00
825/0
5/2
00
826/0
5/2
00
827/0
5/2
00
828/0
5/2
00
829/0
5/2
00
830/0
5/2
00
831/0
5/2
00
801/0
6/2
00
802/0
6/2
00
803/0
6/2
00
804/0
6/2
00
805/0
6/2
00
806/0
6/2
00
807/0
6/2
00
808/0
6/2
00
809/0
6/2
00
810/0
6/2
00
811/0
6/2
00
812/0
6/2
00
813/0
6/2
00
814/0
6/2
00
815/0
6/2
00
816/0
6/2
00
817/0
6/2
00
818/0
6/2
00
819/0
6/2
00
820/0
6/2
00
821/0
6/2
00
822/0
6/2
00
823/0
6/2
00
824/0
6/2
00
825/0
6/2
00
826/0
6/2
00
827/0
6/2
00
828/0
6/2
00
829/0
6/2
00
830/0
6/2
00
801/0
7/2
00
802/0
7/2
00
803/0
7/2
00
804/0
7/2
00
805/0
7/2
00
806/0
7/2
00
807/0
7/2
00
808/0
7/2
00
809/0
7/2
00
810/0
7/2
00
811/0
7/2
00
812/0
7/2
00
813/0
7/2
00
814/0
7/2
00
815/0
7/2
00
816/0
7/2
00
817/0
7/2
00
818/0
7/2
00
819/0
7/2
00
820/0
7/2
00
821/0
7/2
00
822/0
7/2
00
823/0
7/2
00
824/0
7/2
00
825/0
7/2
00
826/0
7/2
00
827/0
7/2
00
828/0
7/2
00
829/0
7/2
00
830/0
7/2
00
831/0
7/2
00
801/0
8/2
00
802/0
8/2
00
803/0
8/2
00
804/0
8/2
00
805/0
8/2
00
806/0
8/2
00
807/0
8/2
00
808/0
8/2
00
809/0
8/2
00
810/0
8/2
00
811/0
8/2
00
812/0
8/2
00
813/0
8/2
00
814/0
8/2
00
815/0
8/2
00
816/0
8/2
00
817/0
8/2
00
818/0
8/2
00
819/0
8/2
00
820/0
8/2
00
821/0
8/2
00
822/0
8/2
00
823/0
8/2
00
824/0
8/2
00
825/0
8/2
00
826/0
8/2
00
827/0
8/2
00
828/0
8/2
00
829/0
8/2
00
830/0
8/2
00
831/0
8/2
00
801/0
9/2
00
802/0
9/2
00
803/0
9/2
00
804/0
9/2
00
805/0
9/2
00
806/0
9/2
00
807/0
9/2
00
808/0
9/2
00
809/0
9/2
00
810/0
9/2
00
811/0
9/2
00
812/0
9/2
00
813/0
9/2
00
814/0
9/2
00
815/0
9/2
00
816/0
9/2
00
817/0
9/2
00
818/0
9/2
00
819/0
9/2
00
820/0
9/2
00
821/0
9/2
00
822/0
9/2
00
823/0
9/2
00
824/0
9/2
00
825/0
9/2
00
826/0
9/2
00
827/0
9/2
00
828/0
9/2
00
829/0
9/2
00
830/0
9/2
00
801/1
0/2
00
802/1
0/2
00
803/1
0/2
00
804/1
0/2
00
805/1
0/2
00
806/1
0/2
00
807/1
0/2
00
808/1
0/2
00
809/1
0/2
00
810/1
0/2
00
811/1
0/2
00
812/1
0/2
00
813/1
0/2
00
814/1
0/2
00
815/1
0/2
00
816/1
0/2
00
817/1
0/2
00
818/1
0/2
00
819/1
0/2
00
820/1
0/2
00
821/1
0/2
00
822/1
0/2
00
823/1
0/2
00
824/1
0/2
00
825/1
0/2
00
826/1
0/2
00
827/1
0/2
00
828/1
0/2
00
829/1
0/2
00
830/1
0/2
00
831/1
0/2
00
801/1
1/2
00
802/1
1/2
00
803/1
1/2
00
804/1
1/2
00
805/1
1/2
00
806/1
1/2
00
807/1
1/2
00
808/1
1/2
00
809/1
1/2
00
810/1
1/2
00
811/1
1/2
00
812/1
1/2
00
813/1
1/2
00
814/1
1/2
00
815/1
1/2
00
816/1
1/2
00
817/1
1/2
00
818/1
1/2
00
819/1
1/2
00
820/1
1/2
00
821/1
1/2
00
822/1
1/2
00
823/1
1/2
00
824/1
1/2
00
825/1
1/2
00
826/1
1/2
00
827/1
1/2
00
828/1
1/2
00
829/1
1/2
00
830/1
1/2
00
801/1
2/2
00
802/1
2/2
00
803/1
2/2
00
804/1
2/2
00
805/1
2/2
00
806/1
2/2
00
807/1
2/2
00
808/1
2/2
00
809/1
2/2
00
810/1
2/2
00
811/1
2/2
00
812/1
2/2
00
813/1
2/2
00
814/1
2/2
00
815/1
2/2
00
816/1
2/2
00
817/1
2/2
00
818/1
2/2
00
819/1
2/2
00
820/1
2/2
00
821/1
2/2
00
822/1
2/2
00
823/1
2/2
00
824/1
2/2
00
825/1
2/2
00
826/1
2/2
00
827/1
2/2
00
828/1
2/2
00
829/1
2/2
00
830/1
2/2
00
831/1
2/2
00
801/0
1/2
00
902/0
1/2
00
903/0
1/2
00
904/0
1/2
00
905/0
1/2
00
906/0
1/2
00
907/0
1/2
00
908/0
1/2
00
909/0
1/2
00
910/0
1/2
00
911/0
1/2
00
912/0
1/2
00
913/0
1/2
00
914/0
1/2
00
915/0
1/2
00
916/0
1/2
00
917/0
1/2
00
918/0
1/2
00
919/0
1/2
00
920/0
1/2
00
921/0
1/2
00
922/0
1/2
00
923/0
1/2
00
924/0
1/2
00
925/0
1/2
00
926/0
1/2
00
927/0
1/2
00
928/0
1/2
00
929/0
1/2
00
930/0
1/2
00
931/0
1/2
00
901/0
2/2
00
902/0
2/2
00
903/0
2/2
00
904/0
2/2
00
905/0
2/2
00
906/0
2/2
00
907/0
2/2
00
908/0
2/2
00
909/0
2/2
00
910/0
2/2
00
911/0
2/2
00
912/0
2/2
00
913/0
2/2
00
914/0
2/2
00
915/0
2/2
00
916/0
2/2
00
917/0
2/2
00
918/0
2/2
00
919/0
2/2
00
920/0
2/2
00
921/0
2/2
00
922/0
2/2
00
923/0
2/2
00
924/0
2/2
00
925/0
2/2
00
926/0
2/2
00
927/0
2/2
00
928/0
2/2
00
901/0
3/2
00
902/0
3/2
00
903/0
3/2
00
904/0
3/2
00
905/0
3/2
00
906/0
3/2
00
907/0
3/2
00
908/0
3/2
00
909/0
3/2
00
910/0
3/2
00
911/0
3/2
00
912/0
3/2
00
913/0
3/2
00
914/0
3/2
00
915/0
3/2
00
916/0
3/2
00
917/0
3/2
00
918/0
3/2
00
919/0
3/2
00
920/0
3/2
00
921/0
3/2
00
922/0
3/2
00
923/0
3/2
00
924/0
3/2
00
925/0
3/2
00
926/0
3/2
00
927/0
3/2
00
928/0
3/2
00
929/0
3/2
00
930/0
3/2
00
931/0
3/2
00
901/0
4/2
00
902/0
4/2
00
903/0
4/2
00
904/0
4/2
00
905/0
4/2
00
906/0
4/2
00
907/0
4/2
00
908/0
4/2
00
909/0
4/2
00
910/0
4/2
00
911/0
4/2
00
912/0
4/2
00
913/0
4/2
00
914/0
4/2
00
915/0
4/2
00
916/0
4/2
00
917/0
4/2
00
918/0
4/2
00
919/0
4/2
00
920/0
4/2
00
921/0
4/2
00
922/0
4/2
00
923/0
4/2
00
924/0
4/2
00
925/0
4/2
00
926/0
4/2
00
927/0
4/2
00
928/0
4/2
00
929/0
4/2
00
930/0
4/2
00
901/0
5/2
00
902/0
5/2
00
903/0
5/2
00
904/0
5/2
00
905/0
5/2
00
906/0
5/2
00
907/0
5/2
00
908/0
5/2
00
909/0
5/2
00
910/0
5/2
00
911/0
5/2
00
912/0
5/2
00
913/0
5/2
00
914/0
5/2
00
915/0
5/2
00
916/0
5/2
00
917/0
5/2
00
918/0
5/2
00
919/0
5/2
00
920/0
5/2
00
921/0
5/2
00
922/0
5/2
00
923/0
5/2
00
924/0
5/2
00
925/0
5/2
00
926/0
5/2
00
927/0
5/2
00
928/0
5/2
00
929/0
5/2
00
930/0
5/2
00
931/0
5/2
00
901/0
6/2
00
902/0
6/2
00
903/0
6/2
00
904/0
6/2
00
905/0
6/2
00
906/0
6/2
00
907/0
6/2
00
908/0
6/2
00
909/0
6/2
00
910/0
6/2
00
911/0
6/2
00
912/0
6/2
00
913/0
6/2
00
914/0
6/2
00
915/0
6/2
00
916/0
6/2
00
917/0
6/2
00
918/0
6/2
00
919/0
6/2
00
920/0
6/2
00
921/0
6/2
00
922/0
6/2
00
923/0
6/2
00
924/0
6/2
00
925/0
6/2
00
926/0
6/2
00
927/0
6/2
00
928/0
6/2
00
929/0
6/2
00
930/0
6/2
00
9
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2008 2009
Installed Capacity
MSQ
FUEL_TYPE WIND
Sum of Quantity (MW)
Year Month SettleDate
Variable
-50
0
50
100
150
200
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
2008 2009
MW
h
Total
Interconnector Flows
€80.
63
€84.
18
€167
.98
97.1
1
€91.
24
€136
.86
€80.
04
-€75
.73
€74.
57
-€100
-€50
€0
€50
€100
€150
€200B
io
Co
al
Dis
tl
Gas
Hyd
ro Oil
Pea
t
Pu
mp
Win
d
Fuel Type
SM
P (
€/M
Wh
)
SMP Paid 2008
Average System Marginal Priceby Type in SEM
€80.
63
€84.
18
€167
.98
€97.
11
€91.
24
€136
.86
€80.
04
-€75
.73
€74.
57
€47.
27
€52.
62
€98.
47
€59.
57
€61.
45
€53.
23
€46.
16
-€66
.98
€42.
98
-€100
-€50
€0
€50
€100
€150
€200B
io
Co
al
Dis
tl
Ga
s
Hy
dro Oil
Pe
at
Pu
mp
Win
d
Fuel Type
SM
P (
€/M
Wh
)
SMP Paid 2008
SMP Paid 2009
Average System Marginal Priceby Type in SEM
Production Cost as % of Revenue
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
2008 2009
Year
Pro
du
ctio
n C
ost
as
% o
f R
even
ue
BIOCoalGASHydroOilWind
Average Capacity Priceby Type in SEM
€9.3
5
€7.6
0
€8.4
3
€7.4
7
€6.4
5
€3.0
0
€8.1
8
€8.3
1
€6.3
1
€8.4
1€9.8
3
€9.4
8
€9.4
0
€9.3
0
€14.4
6
€7.8
1
€8.7
6
€9.5
6
€15.3
6
€8.0
6
€-
€2.00
€4.00
€6.00
€8.00
€10.00
€12.00
€14.00
€16.00
€18.00
Type
€ p
er
MW
Pe
r H
ou
r
Average Capacity Price - 2008
Average Capacity Price - 2009
Challenges• Interconnection
– greater levels of interconnection to the island of Ireland from neighbouring power systems
– Evolution of market rules with respect to the integration of interconnection capacity is essential
• Renewable
– Further renewable penetration
– the development of complementary technologies
Conclusions• Market operated successfully for the last two year
• The SMP reduced over the two year period
• Fuel cost are still a significant percentage of SEM costs
• Flow on the interconnector driven by price arbitrage
• Capacity Payment increased as a percentage of SEM
• Developments will be challenging but achievable
Further Details
Thank You
Questions Welcome
For further details on the Single Electricity Market please see:
www.sem-o.com