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©2015 Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. Confiden9al & Proprietary. Not to be reproduced without the explicit consent of BBH & Co. “BBH” and “BBH & Co.” are registered service marks of Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. Economic Update Prepared for: Sintercafe 2015

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Page 1: Sintercafe 2015 MARK WILLIAMS · • Mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015. • Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels and home affordability is high. Data on new and

©2015BrownBrothersHarriman&Co.Confiden9al&Proprietary.NottobereproducedwithouttheexplicitconsentofBBH&Co.“BBH”and“BBH&Co.”areregisteredservicemarksofBrownBrothersHarriman&Co.

Economic Update Preparedfor: Sintercafe2015

AutomatedinCRS

Page 2: Sintercafe 2015 MARK WILLIAMS · • Mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015. • Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels and home affordability is high. Data on new and

The Fed Funds Rate

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source:FederalReserve,BBHAnalysis

FedFundsRateand FuturesAsofAugust31,2015

FuturesMarket

•  Recent comments by the Fed indicate that the FOMC is still on track to raise rates once or twice in 2015.

•  At its July meeting, the FOMC reiterated that it will raise rates “when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.”

•  The September and the December FOMC meetings are the marginal favorites for the first rate hikes given that these meetings are accompanied by an ensuing press conference.

•  FOMC members have also done their best to convey that this tightening cycle will be on a gradual, shallow trajectory, and will likely finish at a level below long term averages.

Monetary Policy

2IAClientPres/CRS

DataasofAugust31,2015

PB-2015-09-11-0498

Page 3: Sintercafe 2015 MARK WILLIAMS · • Mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015. • Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels and home affordability is high. Data on new and

3

Economic Linkages

CRSIAClientPres/CRS

HousingMarket

LaborMarket

PersonalConsump9on GDP

WealthEffect

IncomeEffect

Deleveraging Savings

versionbelowiseditable.

PB-2015-09-11-0498

Page 4: Sintercafe 2015 MARK WILLIAMS · • Mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015. • Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels and home affordability is high. Data on new and

4

An Important Part of Household Balance Sheets

•  The net worth of American households hit a peak of $67.9 trillion in the 2nd quarter of 2007 before twin bear markets in equities and housing destroyed $13 trillion of household wealth. At the end of the 1st quarter of 2015, the net worth of American households had recovered to $84.9 trillion, an increase of $1.5 trillion from the 4th quarter.

•  In spite of the decline in the value of housing from 2007-2012, residential real estate still accounts for 28% of the total net worth of U.S. households.

1Q2015Value

ChangefromPre-CrisisPeak

$39.2trillion +36%

$21.6trillion +41%

$24.1trillion -3%

Housing Market

IAClientPres/CRS

DataasofMarch31,2015

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$Trillions

Source:FederalReserve,BBHAnalysis

ResidentialRealEstate

StocksandMutualFunds

AllOtherAssets

PB-2015-09-11-0498

Page 5: Sintercafe 2015 MARK WILLIAMS · • Mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015. • Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels and home affordability is high. Data on new and

Housing Market

5

Housing Prices

IAClientPres/CRS

DataasofJuly31,2015

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

$-

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$Thousands Y-O-Y%Change

U.S.ExistingHomeSalesMedianPrice(LeftHandScale)

Year-Over-YearPercentChange(RightHandScale)

Source:NationalAssociationofRealtors,BBHAnalysis

U.S.HousingPrices (AbsoluteLevelandAnnualChange)

PB-2015-09-11-0498

Page 6: Sintercafe 2015 MARK WILLIAMS · • Mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015. • Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels and home affordability is high. Data on new and

Mortgage Rates

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source:BanxQuote,BBHAnalysis

30-YearFixedMortgageRates(Conforming Loans,NationwideAverage)•  30-year conforming fixed mortgage

rates were at 4.02% in August, down 0.06% over the past month.

•  Mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015.

•  Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels and home affordability is high. Data on new and existing home sales indicate that activity is slowly starting to pick up.

Housing Market

6IAClientPres/CRS

DataasofAugust31,2015

PB-2015-09-11-0498

Page 7: Sintercafe 2015 MARK WILLIAMS · • Mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015. • Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels and home affordability is high. Data on new and

Employment and Wages

7

Narrow and Broad Unemployment Rates

•  The economy added a modest 173,000 jobs in August and revisions to prior months added an additional 44,000 versus prior estimates of payroll growth.

•  The unemployment rate was down 0.2% to 5.1%, and a broader measure of unemployment that includes long-term discouraged job seekers and involuntary part-time employees was down 0.1% to 10.3%.

•  Overall this was a decent employment report, and the unemployment rate now indicates “full employment” but it remains to be seen whether this is enough to convince the Fed to begin raising rates at its September meeting. Elsewhere in the report average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% versus the prior month, the quickest pace in the past five months.

IAClientPres/CRS

DataasofAugust31,2015

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

UnemploymentRate

Source:BureauofLaborStatistics,BBHAnalysis

MeasuresofUnemployment

10.3%

5.1%

Broad UnemploymentRate

NarrowUnemploymentRate

PB-2015-09-11-0498

Page 8: Sintercafe 2015 MARK WILLIAMS · • Mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015. • Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels and home affordability is high. Data on new and

8

Average Hourly Earnings Growth

Employment and Wages

IAClientPres/CRS

DataasofAugust31,2015

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Average Hourly Wage Growth

Source:BureauofLaborStatistics

AverageHourlyEarnings(Year-over-YearChange)

PB-2015-09-11-0498

Page 9: Sintercafe 2015 MARK WILLIAMS · • Mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015. • Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels and home affordability is high. Data on new and

Household Debt as a Percentage of Disposable Income

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Household Debt as a % of Income

HouseholdDebtasa%ofDisposableIncome

Source: FederalReserve, BBHAnalysis

HouseholdDebt/DisposableIncome

102.1%

129.7%

1990sAverage:85.8%

•  As consumers continue deleveraging, household debt as a percentage of disposable income has been steadily declining since reaching a peak of almost 130% in the 4th quarter of 2007.

•  At the end of the 1st quarter of 2015, the ratio stood at 102.1%, down 0.4% from the 4th quarter of 2014.

•  Though the household debt-to-disposable income ratio has continued its downward trend, the dollar amount of household debt has actually been on the rise for 8 quarters now.

The Deleveraging of the American Consumer

9IAClientPres/CRS

DataasofMarch31,2015

PB-2015-09-11-0498

Page 10: Sintercafe 2015 MARK WILLIAMS · • Mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015. • Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels and home affordability is high. Data on new and

Debt Payments as a Percentage of Disposable Income

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012

HouseholdDebtServiceRatioDebt PaymentsasaPercentageofDisposableIncome

Source:Federal Reserve,BBHAnalysis

13.2%

9.9%

•  The household debt service ratio has dropped sharply since reaching a high of 13.2% in the 4th quarter of 2007. The combination of unprecedentedly low interest rates and balance write-offs has served to contract the ratio to the lowest level since the inception of the data series in 1980.

•  The ratio was unchanged at 9.9% in the 1st quarter of 2015, and is at historically low levels.

•  While this ratio is somewhat dependent on the Federal Reserve maintaining a low interest rate policy, to the extent that households divert some of these interest savings to repair their over-leveraged balance sheets, the currently low household debt service ratio should aid the overall deleveraging process.

The Deleveraging of the American Consumer

10

IAClientPres/CRS

DataasofMarch31,2015

PB-2015-09-11-0498

Page 11: Sintercafe 2015 MARK WILLIAMS · • Mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015. • Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels and home affordability is high. Data on new and

A Return to Fiscal Prudence?

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

PersonalSavingsRate

3-YearMovingAverage

Sources:BureauofEconomicAnalysis,BBHAnalysis

PersonalSavings asaPercentageofDisposableIncome •  Personal savings declined steadily from the 1980s, before moving upward once again during the last recession.

•  In 2015, the savings rate has risen to its highest level since 2012. Disposable incomes have risen due to a decrease in energy costs yet spending has been directed more at saving than spending.

•  Structural changes, including the introduction of IRAs, 401(k)s, unemployment insurance, and the growing prevalence of two-income households, have allowed for a secular decline in the savings rate.

Personal Savings

11

IAClientPres/CRS

DataasofJuly31,2015

PB-2015-09-11-0498

Page 12: Sintercafe 2015 MARK WILLIAMS · • Mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015. • Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels and home affordability is high. Data on new and

Cash and Cash Equivalents

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

CorporateCashBalancesNonfarmNonfinancialCorporateCash

Sources: FederalReserveZ.1Report,BBHAnalysis

$Billions

•  Corporate balance sheets are in much better shape and have far greater liquidity than even before the Great Recession.

•  Non-financial companies held over $1.6 trillion in cash and cash equivalents as of March 2015, up 45% from year end 2008.

Corporate Balance Sheets

12

IAClientPres/CRS

DataasofMarch31,2015

PB-2015-09-11-0498

Page 13: Sintercafe 2015 MARK WILLIAMS · • Mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015. • Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels and home affordability is high. Data on new and

Retail Sales and Personal Consumption

•  In July, real month-over-month retail sales increased 0.5% and personal consumption increased 0.2%.

•  Nominal Retail sales were up 2.4% year-over-year in July, while nominal Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) were up 3.5%.

•  Nominal consumption figures have softened a bit in part due to the low inflation experienced over the last year. Real year-over-year personal consumption expenditures, by contrast have continued trending up. There is substantial noise in the data and seasonal adjustments can often distort things further but growth in consumption is still supporting the economy.

The Domestic Economy

13

IAClientPres/CRS

DataasofAugust31,2015

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Sources:BureauofEconomicAnalysis,U.S.CensusBureau,BBHAnalysis

PersonalConsumptionExpendituresandRetailSales(Year-over-YearGrowth)ShadedPeriodsIndicateRecessions

PersonalConsumptionExpenditures

RetailSales

PB-2015-09-11-0498

Page 14: Sintercafe 2015 MARK WILLIAMS · • Mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015. • Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels and home affordability is high. Data on new and

The Domestic Economy

14

Real GDP Growth

•  The second GDP estimate for the 2nd quarter of 2015 shows the economy expanded at a 3.7% annualized rate from the previous quarter, an increase from the previous estimate of 2.3%.

•  Personal consumption (+2.1%), investment (+0.9%), government spending (+0.5%), and net exports (+0.2%) all contributed to growth.

•  This report shows that weak first quarter growth was another aberration, and creates a challenge for the Fed, as this most recent indicator of growth has clearly surprised to the upside. With estimates for 2015 growth clearly higher than the Fed’s previous forecasts, it is unclear how much this report will balance out concerns over declining global growth expectations.

IAClientPres/CRS

DataasofAugust31,2015

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis,BBHAnalysis AsofAugust 2015

U.S.RealGross DomesticProduct(Quarter-over-QuarterGrowth,Annualized)

PB-2015-09-11-0498

Page 15: Sintercafe 2015 MARK WILLIAMS · • Mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015. • Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels and home affordability is high. Data on new and

15

S&P 500 Profit Growth

•  Operating earnings* for the 2nd quarter of 2015 are expected to decline 10.8% year-over-year with 97.5% of companies reporting. Earnings for the 3rd quarter are expected to decline 2.6%.

•  In the 2nd quarter S&P 500 sales per share are expected to slow 3.8% versus the prior year, while operating margins are expected to fall 77 basis points.

•  Current earnings estimates call for a rebound starting in the fourth quarter of the year however the recent trend has been for earnings estimates to be revised lower.

Corporate Earnings

IAClientPres/CRS

*Opera9ngearningsascalculatedbyStandard&Poor’s.Includesincomefromproduct(goodsandservices,)excludescorporate(M&A,financing,layoffs),andunusualitems

DataasofAugust31,2015

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source:StandardandPoor's,BBHAnalysis

%ChangeYear-over-Year

na na

ConsensusExpectations

S&P500EarningsGrowth

PB-2015-09-11-0498

Page 16: Sintercafe 2015 MARK WILLIAMS · • Mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015. • Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels and home affordability is high. Data on new and

Productivity and Wage Growth

16

•  Growth in Labor Productivity, or output per hour, increased to an annual pace of 0.7% in the second quarter of 2015.

•  Growth in Unit Labor Costs, which are defined as the ratio of hourly compensation to labor productivity, decreased to a 1.7% annual pace.

•  The productivity wage gap has been negative for three quarters in a row and if this trend continues it will provide a headwind to corporate profitability.

IAClientPres/CRS

DataasofAugust31,2015

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

UnitLaborCosts

Non-FarmProductivity

Source:BureauofLaborStatistics

ProductivityandWageGrowth(Year-over-YearGrowth)

PB-2015-09-11-0498

Page 17: Sintercafe 2015 MARK WILLIAMS · • Mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015. • Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels and home affordability is high. Data on new and

The Fed Funds Rate

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source:FederalReserve,BBHAnalysis

FedFundsRateand FuturesAsofAugust31,2015

FuturesMarket

•  Recent comments by the Fed indicate that the FOMC is still on track to raise rates once or twice in 2015.

•  At its July meeting, the FOMC reiterated that it will raise rates “when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.”

•  The September and the December FOMC meetings are the marginal favorites for the first rate hikes given that these meetings are accompanied by an ensuing press conference.

•  FOMC members have also done their best to convey that this tightening cycle will be on a gradual, shallow trajectory, and will likely finish at a level below long term averages.

Monetary Policy

17

IAClientPres/CRS

DataasofAugust31,2015

PB-2015-09-11-0498

Page 18: Sintercafe 2015 MARK WILLIAMS · • Mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015. • Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels and home affordability is high. Data on new and

Expansion of the Fed’s Balance Sheet

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

$5,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$Billions

Source:FederalReserve,BBHAnalysis

AssetsoftheFederalReserve

QE1 QE2 QE3

•  At its October 2014 meeting, the FOMC ceased its asset purchase program.

•  Since the third quarter of 2008, the Fed’s balance sheet has grown by almost $3.5 trillion. This latest round of quantitative easing was responsible for approximately $1.7 trillion of that growth.

•  Going forward the Fed plans to reinvest maturities and principal repayments for the foreseeable future which should keep the size of its balance sheet roughly constant.

Monetary Stimulus

18

IAClientPres/CRS

DataasofAugust31,2015

PB-2015-09-11-0498

Page 19: Sintercafe 2015 MARK WILLIAMS · • Mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015. • Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels and home affordability is high. Data on new and

©2015BrownBrothersHarriman&Co.Confiden9al&Proprietary.NottobereproducedwithouttheexplicitconsentofBBH&Co.“BBH”and“BBH&Co.”areregisteredservicemarksofBrownBrothersHarriman&Co.

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

CPIInflation

CPIInflationex FoodandEnergy

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, BBH Analysis

%ChangeYear-over-Year

Headline andCoreInflation (Year-over-YearChange)•  InJuly,theConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)wasup0.1%versusthepriormonthandwasup0.2%onayear-over-yearbasis.

•  TheannualrateofchangeinCoreCPI(exfoodandenergy),oneoftheFederalReserve’spreferredmeasuresofinfla9on,wasflatat1.8%,whereithasbeenforfourofthepastfivemonths.

•  Whileheadlineinfla9onhasdeclinedsignificantlydueprimarilytoenergycosts,coreinfla9onhasbeenlessaffected,andtheFederalReserves9llbelievesinfla9onwilltrendbacktowards2%inthemediumterm.

•  Withinfla9onnotapressingconcern,theFedhashadtheluxuryoffocusingalmostexclusivelyonlabormarketdevelopmentsindecidingwhentobeginnormalizingmonetarypolicy.

Inflation

19IAClientPres/CRS

DataasofJuly31,2015

PB-2015-09-11-0498

Page 20: Sintercafe 2015 MARK WILLIAMS · • Mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015. • Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels and home affordability is high. Data on new and

©2015BrownBrothersHarriman&Co.Confiden9al&Proprietary.NottobereproducedwithouttheexplicitconsentofBBH&Co.“BBH”and“BBH&Co.”areregisteredservicemarksofBrownBrothersHarriman&Co.

ImpactonPurchasingPower

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000

1Year 5Years 10Years 15Years 20Years 25Years

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Purchasing Powerof$1,000,000 (AtVariousRatesofInflation)

Source: BBHAnalysis

•  Inspiteofcurrentlowlevels,infla9onremainsthesinglebiggestthreatfacinglonger-terminvestors.Evenlowratesofinfla9oninexorablyeatawayatthepurchasingpowerofthedollar.

•  Overa25-yearperiod,a2%rateofinfla9onresultsinanear40%lossofpurchasingpower.

Inflation

20IAClientPres/CRS

PB-2015-09-11-0498

Page 21: Sintercafe 2015 MARK WILLIAMS · • Mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015. • Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels and home affordability is high. Data on new and

©2015BrownBrothersHarriman&Co.Confiden9al&Proprietary.NottobereproducedwithouttheexplicitconsentofBBH&Co.“BBH”and“BBH&Co.”areregisteredservicemarksofBrownBrothersHarriman&Co. 21

Yield Curves

IAClientPres/CRS

DateasofAugust31,2015Pastperformancedoesnotguaranteefutureresults.

0.00% 0.00%0.23%

0.74%

1.55%

2.22%

2.96%

-0.20% -0.20%0.03%

0.54%

1.35%

2.02%

2.76%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

1Month 3Month 6Month 2Year 5Year 10Year 30Year

Source:Bloomberg, BureauofLaborStatistics,BBHAnalysis

NominalYieldCurve

Real YieldCurve

Source:Bloomberg, BureauofLaborStatistics,BBHAnalysis

PB-2015-09-11-0498

Page 22: Sintercafe 2015 MARK WILLIAMS · • Mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015. • Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels and home affordability is high. Data on new and

©2015BrownBrothersHarriman&Co.Confiden9al&Proprietary.NottobereproducedwithouttheexplicitconsentofBBH&Co.“BBH”and“BBH&Co.”areregisteredservicemarksofBrownBrothersHarriman&Co. 22

Equities as a Source of Income

IAClientPres/CRS

DataasofAugust31,2015Pastperformancedoesnotguaranteefutureresults.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012

ComparativeYields

Source:Standard &Poor,Bloomberg,BBHAnalysis

10-YearTreasury BondYield

S&P500DividendYield

2.18%2.22%

PB-2015-09-11-0498

Page 23: Sintercafe 2015 MARK WILLIAMS · • Mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015. • Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels and home affordability is high. Data on new and

©2015BrownBrothersHarriman&Co.Confiden9al&Proprietary.NottobereproducedwithouttheexplicitconsentofBBH&Co.“BBH”and“BBH&Co.”areregisteredservicemarksofBrownBrothersHarriman&Co.

Financial Markets

23

Long-TermEquityReturns

IAClientPres/CRS

DataasofAugust31,2015Pastperformancedoesnotguaranteefutureresults.

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

1926 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Source:IbbotsonAssociates

Average10.1%

2015ytd-3.0%

S&P500AnnualTotalReturns(1926ThroughAugust31,2015)

PB-2015-09-11-0498

Page 24: Sintercafe 2015 MARK WILLIAMS · • Mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015. • Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels and home affordability is high. Data on new and

©2015BrownBrothersHarriman&Co.Confiden9al&Proprietary.NottobereproducedwithouttheexplicitconsentofBBH&Co.“BBH”and“BBH&Co.”areregisteredservicemarksofBrownBrothersHarriman&Co. 24

S&P500Price-to-EarningsRa9o

•  AsofAugust31st,theS&P500’strailing12-monthP/Era9ostoodat18.2x,modestlyabovethelongtermaverageof15.4x.

•  SincebojominginSeptemberof2011at12.1x,theP/Era9oontheS&P500hasadvanced50%asincreasesintheindexpricehaveoutpacedearningsgrowth.

•  P/Era9oshaveexpandedby0.1xinsofarin2015.

Financial Markets Outlook

IAClientPres/CRS

DataasofAugust31,2015

PB-2015-09-11-0498

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

EquityPERatios(1946-2015)± 1and2StandardDeviations

Sources: StandardandPoor's,RobertShiller,BBHAnalysis

Updatedthrough August31,2015

10.3x

15.4x

20.4x

25.4x

5.3x

+2standarddeviations

+1standarddeviation

average

- 2standarddeviations

- 1standarddeviation

18.2x

Page 25: Sintercafe 2015 MARK WILLIAMS · • Mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015. • Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels and home affordability is high. Data on new and

©2015BrownBrothersHarriman&Co.Confiden9al&Proprietary.NottobereproducedwithouttheexplicitconsentofBBH&Co.“BBH”and“BBH&Co.”areregisteredservicemarksofBrownBrothersHarriman&Co.

The Importance of a Margin of Safety and a Valuation Focus

25

Thehypothe9calillustra9ontotherightshowstheupsidebenefitsofinves9nginacompanywhenthereisameaningfulmarginofsafetybetweenoures9mateofintrinsicvalueandthemarket’sshareprice.Thegraphmakesthefollowingassump9ons:

1.  Aninvestorbuysstockinacompanywhenthemarketpriceofthestockistradingat75%ofintrinsicvalue;

2.  Theintrinsicvalueofthecompanyincreasesat9%peryear;and

3.  Themarketpriceandtheintrinsicvalueconvergeattheendofafive-yearperiod.Basedontheseassump9ons,theinvestorwouldachieveacompoundannualreturnofjustover15%foratotalreturnofmorethan2xtheini9alinvestedcapital.

HYPOTHETICALINVESTMENT

ForIllustra;vePurposesOnly.Thereisnoguaranteethatthesharepricewillconvergewithoures;mateofintrinsicvalue,anditispossiblethesharepricewillbelowerover;me.

Source:BBHAnalysis

PB-2014-09-19-0160

PWMClientPres/CRS

PWMProspectHNWI-LongLibrary

PWMTaxExemptLibrary

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©2015BrownBrothersHarriman&Co.Confiden9al&Proprietary.NottobereproducedwithouttheexplicitconsentofBBH&Co.“BBH”and“BBH&Co.”areregisteredservicemarksofBrownBrothersHarriman&Co.

“BBHGuidelines”representthestrategicassetalloca9onasrecommendedbytheBBHAssetAlloca9onCommijee.“ClientTargets”representaccountholders’assetalloca9onobjec9ves,reflec9ngindividualcircumstancesandrestric9ons.

Investorsshouldno9fytheirRela9onshipManageriftherehavebeenanychangesintheirfinancialsitua9on,investmentobjec9ves,requestedrestric9onsorothercircumstanceswhichmightaffectthemannerinwhichtheirassetsshouldbeinvested.

Pastperformancedoesnotguaranteefutureresults.Theinvestmentreturnandprincipalvalueofaninvestmentwillfluctuatesothataninvestor’sshares,whenredeemed,maybeworthmoreorlessthantheiroriginalcost.

Mutualfundsaresoldbyprospectus.InvestorsshouldconsideraFund'sinvestmentobjecBves,risks,chargesandexpensescarefullybeforeinvesBng.InformaBonabouttheseandotherimportantsubjectsisintheFund'sprospectus,whichaninvestorshouldreadcarefullybeforeinvesBng.FormorecompleteinformaBon,contactRelaBonshipManagerforprospectuses.

Ifapplicabletoanindividual’saccount,creditra9ngsareprovidedbyStandardandPoor’s,whichareindependentthirdpar9es.Issuerswithcreditra9ngsofBBBorbejerareconsideredofgoodcreditquality,withadequatecapacitytomeetfinancialcommitments.Issuerswithcreditra9ngsbelowBBBareconsideredspecula9veinnatureandarevulnerabletothepossibilityofissuerfailureorbusinessinterrup9on.Foraddi9onalinforma9onpleasegototheUnderstandingRa9ngssec9onatwww.standardandpoors.com.“Others”includefixedincomeproducts,includingmutualfunds,thatarenotsubjecttocreditqualityra9ngs.Holdingsmaynotequal100%duetorounding.

Ifapplicabletoanindividual’saccount,theYieldtoMaturity(YTM)representstheyieldthattheFixedIncomepor9onofthePorpoliowouldachieveifallbondscurrentlyheldinthePorpoliowereheldtomaturity,assumingallcouponandprincipalpaymentsarereceivedasscheduled.Yieldtomaturityisonlyanes9ma9onoffuturereturnbecausetherateofreturnatwhichcouponpaymentscanbereinvesteduponreceiptisunknown.Thisfigureissubjecttochangeandisnotmeanttorepresenttherateofreturnearnedbyanypar9cularclient.

Ifapplicabletoanindividual’saccount,theSEC30-dayyield,alsoreferredtoasthe‘standardizedyield’,isareturnfigurebasedonthemostrecent30-dayperiodcoveredbyamutualfund'sfilingswiththeSEC.Theyieldfigurereflectsthedividendsandinterestearnedduringtheperiod,aserthededuc9onofthefund'sexpenses.

Thispublica9onisprovidedbyBrownBrothersHarriman&Co.anditssubsidiaries("BBH")torecipients,whoareclassifiedasProfessionalClientsandEligibleCounterpar9esifintheEuropeanEconomicArea("EEA"),solelyforinforma9onalpurposes.Thisdoesnotcons9tutelegal,taxorinvestmentadviceandisnotintendedasanoffertosellorasolicita9ontobuysecuri9esorinvestmentproducts.Anyreferencetotaxmajersisnotintendedtobeused,andmaynotbeused,forpurposesofavoidingpenal9esundertheU.S.InternalRevenueCodeorforpromo9on,marke9ngorrecommenda9ontothirdpar9es.Thisinforma9onhasbeenobtainedfromsourcesbelievedtobereliablethatareavailableuponrequest.Thismaterialdoesnotcompriseanofferofservices.Anyopinionsexpressedaresubjecttochangewithoutno9ce.Unauthorizeduseordistribu9onwithoutthepriorwrijenpermissionofBBHisprohibited.Thispublica9onisapprovedfordistribu9oninmemberstatesoftheEEAbyBrownBrothersHarrimanInvestorServicesLimited,authorizedandregulatedbytheFinancialConductAuthority(FCA.BBHisaservicemarkofBrownBrothersHarriman&Co.,registeredintheUnitedStatesandothercountries.©BrownBrothersHarriman&Co.2015.Allrightsreserved.2015.

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