sintercafe 2015 mark williams · • mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015. • mortgage rates are...
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Economic Update Preparedfor: Sintercafe2015
AutomatedinCRS
The Fed Funds Rate
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source:FederalReserve,BBHAnalysis
FedFundsRateand FuturesAsofAugust31,2015
FuturesMarket
• Recent comments by the Fed indicate that the FOMC is still on track to raise rates once or twice in 2015.
• At its July meeting, the FOMC reiterated that it will raise rates “when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.”
• The September and the December FOMC meetings are the marginal favorites for the first rate hikes given that these meetings are accompanied by an ensuing press conference.
• FOMC members have also done their best to convey that this tightening cycle will be on a gradual, shallow trajectory, and will likely finish at a level below long term averages.
Monetary Policy
2IAClientPres/CRS
DataasofAugust31,2015
PB-2015-09-11-0498
3
Economic Linkages
CRSIAClientPres/CRS
HousingMarket
LaborMarket
PersonalConsump9on GDP
WealthEffect
IncomeEffect
Deleveraging Savings
versionbelowiseditable.
PB-2015-09-11-0498
4
An Important Part of Household Balance Sheets
• The net worth of American households hit a peak of $67.9 trillion in the 2nd quarter of 2007 before twin bear markets in equities and housing destroyed $13 trillion of household wealth. At the end of the 1st quarter of 2015, the net worth of American households had recovered to $84.9 trillion, an increase of $1.5 trillion from the 4th quarter.
• In spite of the decline in the value of housing from 2007-2012, residential real estate still accounts for 28% of the total net worth of U.S. households.
1Q2015Value
ChangefromPre-CrisisPeak
$39.2trillion +36%
$21.6trillion +41%
$24.1trillion -3%
Housing Market
IAClientPres/CRS
DataasofMarch31,2015
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
$Trillions
Source:FederalReserve,BBHAnalysis
ResidentialRealEstate
StocksandMutualFunds
AllOtherAssets
PB-2015-09-11-0498
Housing Market
5
Housing Prices
IAClientPres/CRS
DataasofJuly31,2015
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
$Thousands Y-O-Y%Change
U.S.ExistingHomeSalesMedianPrice(LeftHandScale)
Year-Over-YearPercentChange(RightHandScale)
Source:NationalAssociationofRealtors,BBHAnalysis
U.S.HousingPrices (AbsoluteLevelandAnnualChange)
PB-2015-09-11-0498
Mortgage Rates
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source:BanxQuote,BBHAnalysis
30-YearFixedMortgageRates(Conforming Loans,NationwideAverage)• 30-year conforming fixed mortgage
rates were at 4.02% in August, down 0.06% over the past month.
• Mortgage rates are up 10 bps in 2015.
• Mortgage rates are still at historically low levels and home affordability is high. Data on new and existing home sales indicate that activity is slowly starting to pick up.
Housing Market
6IAClientPres/CRS
DataasofAugust31,2015
PB-2015-09-11-0498
Employment and Wages
7
Narrow and Broad Unemployment Rates
• The economy added a modest 173,000 jobs in August and revisions to prior months added an additional 44,000 versus prior estimates of payroll growth.
• The unemployment rate was down 0.2% to 5.1%, and a broader measure of unemployment that includes long-term discouraged job seekers and involuntary part-time employees was down 0.1% to 10.3%.
• Overall this was a decent employment report, and the unemployment rate now indicates “full employment” but it remains to be seen whether this is enough to convince the Fed to begin raising rates at its September meeting. Elsewhere in the report average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% versus the prior month, the quickest pace in the past five months.
IAClientPres/CRS
DataasofAugust31,2015
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
UnemploymentRate
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics,BBHAnalysis
MeasuresofUnemployment
10.3%
5.1%
Broad UnemploymentRate
NarrowUnemploymentRate
PB-2015-09-11-0498
8
Average Hourly Earnings Growth
Employment and Wages
IAClientPres/CRS
DataasofAugust31,2015
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Average Hourly Wage Growth
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
AverageHourlyEarnings(Year-over-YearChange)
PB-2015-09-11-0498
Household Debt as a Percentage of Disposable Income
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Household Debt as a % of Income
HouseholdDebtasa%ofDisposableIncome
Source: FederalReserve, BBHAnalysis
HouseholdDebt/DisposableIncome
102.1%
129.7%
1990sAverage:85.8%
• As consumers continue deleveraging, household debt as a percentage of disposable income has been steadily declining since reaching a peak of almost 130% in the 4th quarter of 2007.
• At the end of the 1st quarter of 2015, the ratio stood at 102.1%, down 0.4% from the 4th quarter of 2014.
• Though the household debt-to-disposable income ratio has continued its downward trend, the dollar amount of household debt has actually been on the rise for 8 quarters now.
The Deleveraging of the American Consumer
9IAClientPres/CRS
DataasofMarch31,2015
PB-2015-09-11-0498
Debt Payments as a Percentage of Disposable Income
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
HouseholdDebtServiceRatioDebt PaymentsasaPercentageofDisposableIncome
Source:Federal Reserve,BBHAnalysis
13.2%
9.9%
• The household debt service ratio has dropped sharply since reaching a high of 13.2% in the 4th quarter of 2007. The combination of unprecedentedly low interest rates and balance write-offs has served to contract the ratio to the lowest level since the inception of the data series in 1980.
• The ratio was unchanged at 9.9% in the 1st quarter of 2015, and is at historically low levels.
• While this ratio is somewhat dependent on the Federal Reserve maintaining a low interest rate policy, to the extent that households divert some of these interest savings to repair their over-leveraged balance sheets, the currently low household debt service ratio should aid the overall deleveraging process.
The Deleveraging of the American Consumer
10
IAClientPres/CRS
DataasofMarch31,2015
PB-2015-09-11-0498
A Return to Fiscal Prudence?
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
PersonalSavingsRate
3-YearMovingAverage
Sources:BureauofEconomicAnalysis,BBHAnalysis
PersonalSavings asaPercentageofDisposableIncome • Personal savings declined steadily from the 1980s, before moving upward once again during the last recession.
• In 2015, the savings rate has risen to its highest level since 2012. Disposable incomes have risen due to a decrease in energy costs yet spending has been directed more at saving than spending.
• Structural changes, including the introduction of IRAs, 401(k)s, unemployment insurance, and the growing prevalence of two-income households, have allowed for a secular decline in the savings rate.
Personal Savings
11
IAClientPres/CRS
DataasofJuly31,2015
PB-2015-09-11-0498
Cash and Cash Equivalents
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
CorporateCashBalancesNonfarmNonfinancialCorporateCash
Sources: FederalReserveZ.1Report,BBHAnalysis
$Billions
• Corporate balance sheets are in much better shape and have far greater liquidity than even before the Great Recession.
• Non-financial companies held over $1.6 trillion in cash and cash equivalents as of March 2015, up 45% from year end 2008.
Corporate Balance Sheets
12
IAClientPres/CRS
DataasofMarch31,2015
PB-2015-09-11-0498
Retail Sales and Personal Consumption
• In July, real month-over-month retail sales increased 0.5% and personal consumption increased 0.2%.
• Nominal Retail sales were up 2.4% year-over-year in July, while nominal Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) were up 3.5%.
• Nominal consumption figures have softened a bit in part due to the low inflation experienced over the last year. Real year-over-year personal consumption expenditures, by contrast have continued trending up. There is substantial noise in the data and seasonal adjustments can often distort things further but growth in consumption is still supporting the economy.
The Domestic Economy
13
IAClientPres/CRS
DataasofAugust31,2015
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Sources:BureauofEconomicAnalysis,U.S.CensusBureau,BBHAnalysis
PersonalConsumptionExpendituresandRetailSales(Year-over-YearGrowth)ShadedPeriodsIndicateRecessions
PersonalConsumptionExpenditures
RetailSales
PB-2015-09-11-0498
The Domestic Economy
14
Real GDP Growth
• The second GDP estimate for the 2nd quarter of 2015 shows the economy expanded at a 3.7% annualized rate from the previous quarter, an increase from the previous estimate of 2.3%.
• Personal consumption (+2.1%), investment (+0.9%), government spending (+0.5%), and net exports (+0.2%) all contributed to growth.
• This report shows that weak first quarter growth was another aberration, and creates a challenge for the Fed, as this most recent indicator of growth has clearly surprised to the upside. With estimates for 2015 growth clearly higher than the Fed’s previous forecasts, it is unclear how much this report will balance out concerns over declining global growth expectations.
IAClientPres/CRS
DataasofAugust31,2015
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis,BBHAnalysis AsofAugust 2015
U.S.RealGross DomesticProduct(Quarter-over-QuarterGrowth,Annualized)
PB-2015-09-11-0498
15
S&P 500 Profit Growth
• Operating earnings* for the 2nd quarter of 2015 are expected to decline 10.8% year-over-year with 97.5% of companies reporting. Earnings for the 3rd quarter are expected to decline 2.6%.
• In the 2nd quarter S&P 500 sales per share are expected to slow 3.8% versus the prior year, while operating margins are expected to fall 77 basis points.
• Current earnings estimates call for a rebound starting in the fourth quarter of the year however the recent trend has been for earnings estimates to be revised lower.
Corporate Earnings
IAClientPres/CRS
*Opera9ngearningsascalculatedbyStandard&Poor’s.Includesincomefromproduct(goodsandservices,)excludescorporate(M&A,financing,layoffs),andunusualitems
DataasofAugust31,2015
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source:StandardandPoor's,BBHAnalysis
%ChangeYear-over-Year
na na
ConsensusExpectations
S&P500EarningsGrowth
PB-2015-09-11-0498
Productivity and Wage Growth
16
• Growth in Labor Productivity, or output per hour, increased to an annual pace of 0.7% in the second quarter of 2015.
• Growth in Unit Labor Costs, which are defined as the ratio of hourly compensation to labor productivity, decreased to a 1.7% annual pace.
• The productivity wage gap has been negative for three quarters in a row and if this trend continues it will provide a headwind to corporate profitability.
IAClientPres/CRS
DataasofAugust31,2015
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
UnitLaborCosts
Non-FarmProductivity
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
ProductivityandWageGrowth(Year-over-YearGrowth)
PB-2015-09-11-0498
The Fed Funds Rate
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source:FederalReserve,BBHAnalysis
FedFundsRateand FuturesAsofAugust31,2015
FuturesMarket
• Recent comments by the Fed indicate that the FOMC is still on track to raise rates once or twice in 2015.
• At its July meeting, the FOMC reiterated that it will raise rates “when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.”
• The September and the December FOMC meetings are the marginal favorites for the first rate hikes given that these meetings are accompanied by an ensuing press conference.
• FOMC members have also done their best to convey that this tightening cycle will be on a gradual, shallow trajectory, and will likely finish at a level below long term averages.
Monetary Policy
17
IAClientPres/CRS
DataasofAugust31,2015
PB-2015-09-11-0498
Expansion of the Fed’s Balance Sheet
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
$Billions
Source:FederalReserve,BBHAnalysis
AssetsoftheFederalReserve
QE1 QE2 QE3
• At its October 2014 meeting, the FOMC ceased its asset purchase program.
• Since the third quarter of 2008, the Fed’s balance sheet has grown by almost $3.5 trillion. This latest round of quantitative easing was responsible for approximately $1.7 trillion of that growth.
• Going forward the Fed plans to reinvest maturities and principal repayments for the foreseeable future which should keep the size of its balance sheet roughly constant.
Monetary Stimulus
18
IAClientPres/CRS
DataasofAugust31,2015
PB-2015-09-11-0498
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-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
CPIInflation
CPIInflationex FoodandEnergy
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, BBH Analysis
%ChangeYear-over-Year
Headline andCoreInflation (Year-over-YearChange)• InJuly,theConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)wasup0.1%versusthepriormonthandwasup0.2%onayear-over-yearbasis.
• TheannualrateofchangeinCoreCPI(exfoodandenergy),oneoftheFederalReserve’spreferredmeasuresofinfla9on,wasflatat1.8%,whereithasbeenforfourofthepastfivemonths.
• Whileheadlineinfla9onhasdeclinedsignificantlydueprimarilytoenergycosts,coreinfla9onhasbeenlessaffected,andtheFederalReserves9llbelievesinfla9onwilltrendbacktowards2%inthemediumterm.
• Withinfla9onnotapressingconcern,theFedhashadtheluxuryoffocusingalmostexclusivelyonlabormarketdevelopmentsindecidingwhentobeginnormalizingmonetarypolicy.
Inflation
19IAClientPres/CRS
DataasofJuly31,2015
PB-2015-09-11-0498
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ImpactonPurchasingPower
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
$1,000,000
1Year 5Years 10Years 15Years 20Years 25Years
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Purchasing Powerof$1,000,000 (AtVariousRatesofInflation)
Source: BBHAnalysis
• Inspiteofcurrentlowlevels,infla9onremainsthesinglebiggestthreatfacinglonger-terminvestors.Evenlowratesofinfla9oninexorablyeatawayatthepurchasingpowerofthedollar.
• Overa25-yearperiod,a2%rateofinfla9onresultsinanear40%lossofpurchasingpower.
Inflation
20IAClientPres/CRS
PB-2015-09-11-0498
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Yield Curves
IAClientPres/CRS
DateasofAugust31,2015Pastperformancedoesnotguaranteefutureresults.
0.00% 0.00%0.23%
0.74%
1.55%
2.22%
2.96%
-0.20% -0.20%0.03%
0.54%
1.35%
2.02%
2.76%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
1Month 3Month 6Month 2Year 5Year 10Year 30Year
Source:Bloomberg, BureauofLaborStatistics,BBHAnalysis
NominalYieldCurve
Real YieldCurve
Source:Bloomberg, BureauofLaborStatistics,BBHAnalysis
PB-2015-09-11-0498
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Equities as a Source of Income
IAClientPres/CRS
DataasofAugust31,2015Pastperformancedoesnotguaranteefutureresults.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
ComparativeYields
Source:Standard &Poor,Bloomberg,BBHAnalysis
10-YearTreasury BondYield
S&P500DividendYield
2.18%2.22%
PB-2015-09-11-0498
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Financial Markets
23
Long-TermEquityReturns
IAClientPres/CRS
DataasofAugust31,2015Pastperformancedoesnotguaranteefutureresults.
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
1926 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source:IbbotsonAssociates
Average10.1%
2015ytd-3.0%
S&P500AnnualTotalReturns(1926ThroughAugust31,2015)
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S&P500Price-to-EarningsRa9o
• AsofAugust31st,theS&P500’strailing12-monthP/Era9ostoodat18.2x,modestlyabovethelongtermaverageof15.4x.
• SincebojominginSeptemberof2011at12.1x,theP/Era9oontheS&P500hasadvanced50%asincreasesintheindexpricehaveoutpacedearningsgrowth.
• P/Era9oshaveexpandedby0.1xinsofarin2015.
Financial Markets Outlook
IAClientPres/CRS
DataasofAugust31,2015
PB-2015-09-11-0498
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
EquityPERatios(1946-2015)± 1and2StandardDeviations
Sources: StandardandPoor's,RobertShiller,BBHAnalysis
Updatedthrough August31,2015
10.3x
15.4x
20.4x
25.4x
5.3x
+2standarddeviations
+1standarddeviation
average
- 2standarddeviations
- 1standarddeviation
18.2x
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The Importance of a Margin of Safety and a Valuation Focus
25
Thehypothe9calillustra9ontotherightshowstheupsidebenefitsofinves9nginacompanywhenthereisameaningfulmarginofsafetybetweenoures9mateofintrinsicvalueandthemarket’sshareprice.Thegraphmakesthefollowingassump9ons:
1. Aninvestorbuysstockinacompanywhenthemarketpriceofthestockistradingat75%ofintrinsicvalue;
2. Theintrinsicvalueofthecompanyincreasesat9%peryear;and
3. Themarketpriceandtheintrinsicvalueconvergeattheendofafive-yearperiod.Basedontheseassump9ons,theinvestorwouldachieveacompoundannualreturnofjustover15%foratotalreturnofmorethan2xtheini9alinvestedcapital.
HYPOTHETICALINVESTMENT
ForIllustra;vePurposesOnly.Thereisnoguaranteethatthesharepricewillconvergewithoures;mateofintrinsicvalue,anditispossiblethesharepricewillbelowerover;me.
Source:BBHAnalysis
PB-2014-09-19-0160
PWMClientPres/CRS
PWMProspectHNWI-LongLibrary
PWMTaxExemptLibrary
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“BBHGuidelines”representthestrategicassetalloca9onasrecommendedbytheBBHAssetAlloca9onCommijee.“ClientTargets”representaccountholders’assetalloca9onobjec9ves,reflec9ngindividualcircumstancesandrestric9ons.
Investorsshouldno9fytheirRela9onshipManageriftherehavebeenanychangesintheirfinancialsitua9on,investmentobjec9ves,requestedrestric9onsorothercircumstanceswhichmightaffectthemannerinwhichtheirassetsshouldbeinvested.
Pastperformancedoesnotguaranteefutureresults.Theinvestmentreturnandprincipalvalueofaninvestmentwillfluctuatesothataninvestor’sshares,whenredeemed,maybeworthmoreorlessthantheiroriginalcost.
Mutualfundsaresoldbyprospectus.InvestorsshouldconsideraFund'sinvestmentobjecBves,risks,chargesandexpensescarefullybeforeinvesBng.InformaBonabouttheseandotherimportantsubjectsisintheFund'sprospectus,whichaninvestorshouldreadcarefullybeforeinvesBng.FormorecompleteinformaBon,contactRelaBonshipManagerforprospectuses.
Ifapplicabletoanindividual’saccount,creditra9ngsareprovidedbyStandardandPoor’s,whichareindependentthirdpar9es.Issuerswithcreditra9ngsofBBBorbejerareconsideredofgoodcreditquality,withadequatecapacitytomeetfinancialcommitments.Issuerswithcreditra9ngsbelowBBBareconsideredspecula9veinnatureandarevulnerabletothepossibilityofissuerfailureorbusinessinterrup9on.Foraddi9onalinforma9onpleasegototheUnderstandingRa9ngssec9onatwww.standardandpoors.com.“Others”includefixedincomeproducts,includingmutualfunds,thatarenotsubjecttocreditqualityra9ngs.Holdingsmaynotequal100%duetorounding.
Ifapplicabletoanindividual’saccount,theYieldtoMaturity(YTM)representstheyieldthattheFixedIncomepor9onofthePorpoliowouldachieveifallbondscurrentlyheldinthePorpoliowereheldtomaturity,assumingallcouponandprincipalpaymentsarereceivedasscheduled.Yieldtomaturityisonlyanes9ma9onoffuturereturnbecausetherateofreturnatwhichcouponpaymentscanbereinvesteduponreceiptisunknown.Thisfigureissubjecttochangeandisnotmeanttorepresenttherateofreturnearnedbyanypar9cularclient.
Ifapplicabletoanindividual’saccount,theSEC30-dayyield,alsoreferredtoasthe‘standardizedyield’,isareturnfigurebasedonthemostrecent30-dayperiodcoveredbyamutualfund'sfilingswiththeSEC.Theyieldfigurereflectsthedividendsandinterestearnedduringtheperiod,aserthededuc9onofthefund'sexpenses.
Thispublica9onisprovidedbyBrownBrothersHarriman&Co.anditssubsidiaries("BBH")torecipients,whoareclassifiedasProfessionalClientsandEligibleCounterpar9esifintheEuropeanEconomicArea("EEA"),solelyforinforma9onalpurposes.Thisdoesnotcons9tutelegal,taxorinvestmentadviceandisnotintendedasanoffertosellorasolicita9ontobuysecuri9esorinvestmentproducts.Anyreferencetotaxmajersisnotintendedtobeused,andmaynotbeused,forpurposesofavoidingpenal9esundertheU.S.InternalRevenueCodeorforpromo9on,marke9ngorrecommenda9ontothirdpar9es.Thisinforma9onhasbeenobtainedfromsourcesbelievedtobereliablethatareavailableuponrequest.Thismaterialdoesnotcompriseanofferofservices.Anyopinionsexpressedaresubjecttochangewithoutno9ce.Unauthorizeduseordistribu9onwithoutthepriorwrijenpermissionofBBHisprohibited.Thispublica9onisapprovedfordistribu9oninmemberstatesoftheEEAbyBrownBrothersHarrimanInvestorServicesLimited,authorizedandregulatedbytheFinancialConductAuthority(FCA.BBHisaservicemarkofBrownBrothersHarriman&Co.,registeredintheUnitedStatesandothercountries.©BrownBrothersHarriman&Co.2015.Allrightsreserved.2015.
ALLPRESENTATIONSMUSTINCLUDEADISCLAIMER/COPYRIGHTPAGE
Disclosures
WM-2013-11-14-0512
AutomatedinCRS26