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A. Papers that will be published at the end

of this project that will advance scientific

knowledge

1.The extent of the association between climate and the

incidence of dengue across the Caribbean region and the

dominance of this feature in comparison to other linkages.2. Identification and evaluation of adaptive options to

ameliorate the impact of climate on this disease.

3. Prediction of future dengue impacts - short-term

(decadal) and long term (next 50 -100 yrs) - and adaptations

based on global change scenarios.

4. Changing patterns of knowledge, attitudes and practices

(KAP) to climate change/variability and disease, in

Caribbean populations.

.

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The Culprit (Vector)

Also the dengue mosquito

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KEY ANALYSES AND METHODS TO BE USED. #1

Association of Climate and DiseaseU(

C1#1.#1S#1.Edand

Retrospective and prospective studies of the occurrence of

dengue fever, its vectors and climate indicators in target

communities.

GIS studies and mapping of climate, disease and vector

populations.

Development of climate and epidemiological databases.

Statistical analysis: correlation studies of these variables.

Test for the influence of other variables such as population

growth, socio-economic situations and environmental factors.

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Paper # 2

Identification and evaluation of adaptive options

To demonstrate in the pilot projects what strategies will work

best in prevention of disease transmission in times of climate

change.

To develop and test evaluation tools for identification of

vulnerability and adaptation indicators.

To disseminate to stakeholders community, the scientific

bodies,etc. the findings of these studies. To encourage the implementation of prevention and control

methods identified in the studies.

In this community-based intervention, incentives will be

provided for the execution of the program.

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Paper # 3

Prediction of future impacts and adaptation

Downscaling/Scenario building/ Modelling of climate

situations in association with disease transmission.

The demonstration of the sensitivity of present day socio-economic variables impacting on disease and climate issues

and the visualizing of future events, with or without

adaptive measures.

Devising a workable early warning system.

Outlining steps necessary for communities to achieve

short-term and long-term achievement of adaptive

measures.

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Paper #4

Dissemination of information

Evaluation of the findings and adaptive interventions.

Dissemination of the information gained in these studies to allstakeholders including community, policy makers, etc.

Based on these demonstrated results, to visualize the impact

of climate change on other diseases such as FBDs, VBDs,

stresses.

Make new proposals for execution of further climate-

change/health studies

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Incorporations from this workshop into the dengue

and climate change project

1. GIS and Mapping Skills.

2. Integrated Assessment skills.

3. Scenario building skills.

4. Use of coping range strategies for identification of

vulnerability and application of adaptive responses.

5. Vulnerability and Adaptive concepts.

6. Risk, hazard and disaster assessments.