Biofuels in Australia: Issues and ProspectsScientists in Schools 26 October 2007

Presented by Deborah O’Connell Contributing authors: Brian Keating, Michael Dunlop, Michael O’Connor, Barrie May, John Raison, Tom Beer, David Batten, Tim Grant, Graham Turner, Franzi Poldy, David Lamb, Mick Poole, Andrew Braid, Victoria Haritos, Cameron Begley, Peter Campbell, Damien Farine

Biofuels – hype vs reality

Outline of talk

1. What (global and local) forces will shape our transport energy futures?

2. What are the options for our transport future?

3. What is a biofuel?

4. What is the current status of the industry?

5. What will be the role for biofuels in Australia’s transport?• Could they, should they, will they?

• At the margins ? 2-5% of transport fuels

• In the main game? 10-20% of transport fuels

• As the end game?> 60% of transport fuels

6. So what?

1. What forces will shape our transport energy futures?

Global• Greenhouse gas emissions

and climate change• Energy security• Energy costs

Local• Health• Opportunities for rural and

regional Australia

2. What options for Australia’s transport energy future?

• Extend fossil reserves• New fossil fuel discoveries • Cheaper extraction and processing

• Sequester the Carbon• Geo – hope it stays down!• Bio - algae to biodiesel or agrichar

• Diversify types of transport fuels • LPG, CNG, biogas, (renewable) electricity

• New liquid fuel options• Gas to liquids • Coal to liquids • Biomass to liquids (ie biofuels)

• Reduce demand• Efficient engines – hybrid, electric, smaller• eco-efficient urban design

• And in the longer term …..• Hydrogen economy• from coal, nuclear or renewable electricity

Source: http://www.toyota.com/prius/index.html?s_van=GM_TN_HYBRID_PRIUS

3. What are biofuels? 1st and 2nd generation conversion technologies

Source: Hamelinck and Faaij (2006) Outlook for advanced biofuels. Energy Policy 34: 3268-3283.

Hydrogen (H2)

Methanol (CH3OH)

DME (CH3OCH3)

FT Diesel (CxHy)

SNG (CH4)

Biodiesel (CxHy)

Ethanol (CH3CH2OH)

Biodiesel (alkyl esters)

Bio oil (vegetable oil)

Water gas shift + separation

Catalysed synthesis

Purification

Hydro treating and refining

Fermentation

Esterification

Vegetable oil

Sugar

Bio oil

Biogas

SyngasGasification

Anaerobic digestion

Flash pyrolysis

Hydrothermal liquefaction

Hydrolysis

Milling and hydrolysis

Pressing or extraction

Lignocellulosic biomass

Sugar/starch crops

Oil plants

4. What is the current status of the industry?

Ethanol Biodiesel

Australia 2007 2006/7 prdn (GL/yr)

Proposed 2010 capacity (GL/yr)

2004/5 fuel usage (GL/yr)

Ethanol 0.084 1 Petrol 20

Biodiesel 0.076 1.5 Diesel 15

5. What will be the role for biofuels in Australia’s transport future?

Could they?

Should they?

Will they have a role?

Will that role be

• At the margins ? 2-5% of transport fuels

• In the main game? 10-20% of transport fuels

• As the end game?> 60% of transport fuels

Prospects… Could they? 1st generation biofuels in Australia

From O’Connell et al 2007. Biofuels in Australia: Issues and Prospects. RIRDC Pub No 07/071

Coarse

Prospects…Could they? 1st generation - key messages

1st generation - currently available feedstocks / conversion technologies

• Limited by• High cost of production (high quality land and high inputs)• Low net energy yield

• May present useful regional opportunities

• May be useful first step in transitional fuels

Can we move beyond this?

Prospects – could they?Replacing oil …

Miscellaneous 0.4%

Still gas 4.1%Liquified refinery gas

2.3%

Asphalt 3.0%Petroleum coke 5.0%

Residual fuel oil

Special naphtas 0.2%Lubricants 1.0%

Waxes 0.1%

Heavy fuel oil 6.1%

Petrochemicals 3.4%

Fuels 70.6%

Crude Oil

Oil Refinery

US Department of Energy 2005, American Institute of Chemistry; in New Scientist, 7th July 2007

US$385bn

~US$375bn

Prospects –could they?With 3rd generation bioproducts and energy…

Liquid Biofuel

Electricity / Heat

Paint

Distillers GrainOrganic Waste

Other

AdhesivesBiomass

Biorefinery

Prospects…Could they? 1st, 2nd ,3rd generation - key messages

1st generation – limited to margins

2nd generation – moving beyond the limits…• Expand or intensify agricultural production

• Optimise farming systems for energy

• Change feedstocks and technologies

3rd generation – intriguing prospects for the bioeconomy…

• Biorefineries for high value products AND energy

Prospects… Should they? Sustainability

• Different things to different people

• Embraces concepts of

• Triple Bottom Line (economic, social and environmental components)

• Intergenerational equity – options for future generations

• Balance between natural capital, manufactured capital and human capital

From O’Connell Keating Glover Sustainability Guidelines for Bioenergy 2005

Prospects… Should they? Sustainability

Land and water resources increasingly contested

• Human food• Animal feed• Fibre • Water yield• Energy production• Environmental services eg biodiversity, carbon

sequestration

Biofuels - full life cycle, range of criteria• Greenhouse Gas, air quality, land and water

impacts, biodiversity, Energy Production Ratio, financial viability, community and regional impacts

If only it was this simple !

Prospects … should they?

Prospects - Should they ? Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions

Biofuels have lower emissions than fossils • Ethanol from grain and sugar - 20-50% • Biodiesel from oilseeds - 50-70% • Ethanol from lignocellulose- 80-90% BUT ≠ ‘zero carbon’ emissions

Depends on particular biofuel production system, and method

Prospects … should they? Biodiversity – eg palm oil for biodiesel

Biodiversity loss

Peat land fires, carbon loss

Prospects … should they? Land and water impacts

• Impacts largely through production of crops and biomass

• Impacts could be positive or negative

• Will depend on • scale of industry

• where feedstock produced

• what type of feedstock

O’Connell et al 2007. Biofuels in Australia: Issues and Prospects. RIRDC Pub No 07/071

Big crowd expected to protest against charcoal plant…ABC News 20 September 2002

http://www.acr.net.au/~coastwatchers/charcoalition/abc200902a.html

http://www.acr.net.au/~coastwatchers/charcoalition/abc200902a.html

Prospects … should they? Community ‘licence to operate’….

Prospects … should they?

Does the current land use meet community expectation on sustainability?

Is there a potential biomass source?

Is energy the highest order use for it?

Greenhouse gas abatement?

Air quality maintained or improved??

Land and water quality maintained or improved?

Biodiversity maintained or improved?

Positive social outcomes?

Financial viability?

C

omm

unity

con

sulta

tion

S

yste

m d

esig

n

CostsBenefitsCosts

Benefits

Bioenergynot sustainable

Bioenergysustainable

CostsBenefits Costs

Benefits

Bioenergynot sustainable

Bioenergysustainable

Yes

Conditional Yes

ConditionsYes

Conditional Yes

Conditions

Yes

Yes

Yes (existing) Yes (new)Yes (existing) Yes (new)

Bioenergynot sustainable

Bioenergynot sustainable

No

From O’Connell Keating Glover Sustainability Guidelines for Bioenergy 2005

The Sustainability Ladder

Prospects…Should they? Key messages summary

Sustainability issues are crucial• Replace an unsustainable system with another unsustainable one?

• True sustainability hard to achieve

• Content and process

• Community ‘licence to operate’

• Track and trace certification

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.filmaust.com.au/wilderness/images/photogallery Jenni Maree Bock ?Sustainability protests Biogas bus to destination ‘special’

Photo: Tom Beer

Prospects…Will they?

Volatile international and domestic commodity markets and oil price

Policy settings

Broader energy management• Use or sequester target gases• Diversify (renewable electricity, GTL, CTL)• Carbon markets• Energy efficient vehicles• Eco efficient urban design• Interactions with other resources eg water

• REDUCE overall demand

6. So what??

We need • fuel security• lower greenhouse gas emissions• carbon sequestration

Can biofuels help?• Depends on how its done• 1st gen – margins• 2nd gen - ‘main game’ - step change

• 3rd gen - biofuels and bioproducts - intriguing prospects

Sustainability is the key!

Thanks folks!Contact Deborah.O’Connell@csiro.au

This work is funded through the CSIRO Energy Transformed Flagship, with funding partners including RIRDC and GRDC

Prospects… Could they? Sustainable biomass production

1st generation fuels

(ethanol and biodiesel)

2nd generation fuels / 1st generation bioelectricity (lignocellulosics)

Current prodn base

•Sugar and starch crops•Oilseed crops

•Crop residues (sugar, cereal)•Grasses•Farm forestry•Plantation forestry – thinnings, residues•Native forest residues and •Waste streams

Future prodn base

•Expand current base•GM crops•New tree crops eg Pongamia, Jatropha

3rd generation - high value products including energy

•Expansion of forestry, farm forestry, grasses•Expansion new crops, GM •Algae

O’Connell et al 2007. Biofuels in Australia: Issues and Prospects. RIRDC Pub No 07/071

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