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The Structure of TrendsStrategic Design & Management Summer 2014

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patterns patterns

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past present future

trends are about movement what is changing? (patterns) by what force? (codes emerge)

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what would she buy?are we seeing the full dynamics shaping her decisions?

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motivetrendstory

what I remember

what I believe will happen

evolution of narrative as sustained shift

the structure is cognitivehow perception and belief manifests as action and sustained behavior

patternspatterns

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codes enable system 1 thinkingsystem 1 vs. system 2

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trends are the output of cognitive systems

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trends flow from this unconscious narrative

BEHAVIORPERCEPTIONwhat people believe

how they act upon that belief

we need to calibrate our sight to read the patterns in the signals

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cognitive indexes to measure trend scenariosfinding the best signals that tells more of the story

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weather indexeswhat weather data impacts what we do and how we plan?

BEHAVIORPERCEPTION

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the waffle house indexthe index of weather based on what you can still get at the Waffle House

BEHAVIORPERCEPTION

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the Uggs indexthe perception of how long cold weather will last impacts sales.

BEHAVIORPERCEPTION

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the flu indexhow can we predict outbreaks in illness before they have become epidemics?

BEHAVIORPERCEPTION

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the google flu indexhow can we predict outbreaks in illness before they have become epidemics?

BEHAVIORPERCEPTION

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stock market indexwhat data points offer the greatest yields to plan investment?

BEHAVIORPERCEPTION

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bad indexes feed market bubblesthe value of markets rests on how we read perceptions of value

BEHAVIORPERCEPTION

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trends are stories (we must learn to read them)what happens next? what clues are there?

BEHAVIORPERCEPTION

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plot

setting language

perspective conflict

motivation and action are driven forward by cognitive dynamicswhat moves the story forward?

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PHOTO: FLICKR/TIGERLILLYSHOP

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everyday trend narrativesfrom how much salt to how fast... the choices we make in every category have an unconscious cultural line of sight.

plot

setting language

perspective conflict

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narrative dynamics/freytag’s pyramid

rising action

climax

falling action

these stories rise and fall as social dynamics shift

exposition denouement

image: @glennharper

patterns

notness

kinship

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past present future

I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. - Wayne Gretzky

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the physics of trends

THE ICE the conditions that define the physics of response

THE HIThow we perceive conditions and behave

THE PATHwhere the puck will be

understanding what will drive where things will be

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patterns patterns

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analyzing cyclical and sustained trends

culture / expression / influencePERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES technology + government + social shifts

past present future

how trends emerge and sustain rests on the way forces impact real human scenarios and shift behavior.

historicalPAST TRENDS

cyclicalMICRO TRENDS MACRO TRENDS

sustained

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trend forces: economicsthe economy shapes our perception

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middle class65%

upper class2%

lower class27%

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trend forces: economicseconomies with a growing middle class

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trend forces: employmentshifts in access to employment and the type of jobs available

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trend forces: educationhow well are institutions preparing students for changing dynamics

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trend forces: governmentgovernment impacts our sense of security and optimism

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there was a food ban in New York City in 2012trend forces: government

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legalization of marijuana will have broader impact on trends and innovationtrend forces: government

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trend forces: social shiftshow relaxed or restrictive society appears

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trend forces: social shiftsevolving aspirations results in migrations and new behaviors

Monterrey, Mexico

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trend forces: technologyhow we access experiences

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trend forces: technologyhow invention can transform broader behavior

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trend forces: technologyand begin to blur fundamentals of what is real and human

Immersight positional tracking VR

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past present futurepatterns patterns

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trend forces impacting perception/behavior

2008

caution

lack of credit

unemployment

shopping the pantry

MICRO TRENDS MACRO TRENDS

new normal

the great recession

exuberance

deregulation

borrowed money

HISTORICAL

increasing value

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trend forces impacting perception/behavior

2014

the new normal

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where will we live?

what is livable?

past present future

urban renewal + recession + social migration

urban expansion

MICRO TRENDS MACRO TRENDS

suburban renewalurban flight

HISTORICAL

what is livable?

these potential futures are interwoven as a narrative system

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where will we live?these potential futures are interwoven as a narrative system

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shifts in expectation

demographics economics

where will we work?

past present future

technology

permanent freelance

MICRO TREND

entrepreneurship

MACRO TREND

long term employment

HISTORIAL

shifts in expectation

these potential futures are interwoven as a narrative system

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these potential futures are interwoven as a narrative systemhow we will love?

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these potential futures are interwoven as a narrative system

Her (2014)

how we will love?

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brand communication as trend affirmationhow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical

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brand communication as trend affirmationhow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

technology + economics + global politicseconomic growth recession

2006 2009 2013

recovery

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brand communication as trend affirmationhow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

technology + economics + global politics

“stylish”

economic growth

2006

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brand communication as trend affirmationhow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

technology + economics + global politicseconomic growth recession

“awareness”“stylish”2006 2009

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brand communication as trend affirmationhow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

technology + economics + global politicseconomic growth recession

“awareness”“stylish”

2006 2009“equipped”

2013

recovery

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brand communication evolveshow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical

2014

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belief + currency + influencePERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES economics + materials + technology

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forecasting near term - cyclical consumption what will sell?

MICRO TRENDS

past present future

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cognitive features feed cyclical consumptioncolor is a system 1 tool for the designer

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timing cognitive features with cultural shifts

past present future

Peter Pilotto for Target

MICRO TRENDS

features

HISTORICAL

features

notness sustainability

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the broader meaning of vinyl records

past present future

pushback on new technology

MICRO TRENDS

how might this evolve?

MACRO TRENDS

how do you read this signal? what are the implications?

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the story is bigger than the one signalcultural systems (connotation)

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DIY fashion - reading the dynamics sourcing other trend signals that share similar codes

past present future

creative involvement

MICRO TRENDS

how might this sustain?

MACRO TRENDS

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understanding the cultural dimensions that will impact the brand

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LANGUAGE CODES CULTURE STORY

business case: Starbucks

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CODES

SIGNIFIERS

PERSONAL

TRANSPARENT

CRAFT

PHYSICAL

SOCIAL

SHARING TABLES GREEN MARKETS

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TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION / BEHAVIOR

sourcing emergent codes to fuel innovation

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BOULANGERIES GROWLERS

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sourcing emergent codes to fuel innovation

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION / BEHAVIOR

CODES

SIGNIFIERS

PERSONAL

TRANSPARENT

CRAFT

PHYSICAL

SOCIAL

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STARBUCKS RETAIL

STARBUCKS VERISMO

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TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION / BEHAVIOR

forecasting how innovation platforms will evolve

CODES

SIGNIFIERS

PERSONAL

TRANSPARENT

CRAFT

PHYSICAL

SOCIAL

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exercise: what forces are making the product work today? how does the product need to evolve?

patterns patterns

past present future