sismos sin fronteras: dos países, una respuesta...2a reunion regional noroeste tijuana, baja...

SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO

SISMOS SIN FRONTERAS:

Dos Países, Una Respuesta

Jorge F. Meneses Principal Geotechnical Engineer, RMA Group, Inc.

Commissioner, California Seismic Safety Commission

President, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI) San Diego Chapter

EERI Board of Directors Member

2a Reunion Regional Noroeste

Tijuana, Baja California


This project is an update of the 1990 Earthquake Scenario

developed for the San Diego-Tijuana Region by the

California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines

and Geology.

ORGANIZATION


• Working Group 1: Earthquake Hazards

• Working Group 2: Impact to Built Environment

• Working Group 3: Social and Economic Impact

Working Groups


Working Group 1 – Earthquake Hazards


1. Historical Earthquake

2. Scenario Earthquake

3. Earthquake Shaking

4. Earthquake Secondary

Hazards

Working Group 1 - Earthquake Hazards

San Diego, CA


1. HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE – 155 years ago

The Day of Terror - San Diego’s 1862 Earthquake


2. SCENARIO EARTHQUAKE

The Fault – Rose Canyon Fault

10:20am on Oct 20, 20XX – M6.9

– Crustal Strike-Slip (Right Lateral)

– Surface Rupture (South)

• Offshore-LJ-OT-SD-Silver Strand

• Length 69km (43 miles)

• Slip 2m max (6.6ft Horiz)

• Unilateral Rupture

• Directivity Towards Tijuana

– Epicenter

• Location N33.01 W117.32

• Depth 7.7km (4.8 miles)

– Recurrence Interval 1,000 years

• 2mm/yr Slip Rate (0.08 inches)


Direct Surface Rupture

2010 Mexico -100 miles from San Diego

M7.2

1992 Landers CA M7.3


Failure Rupture


Liquefaction


Direct Surface Rupture and Slip Distribution

Public Fault Map Rupture & Slip http://www.sandiegogeologists.org/Faults_map.html

http://www.sandiegogeologists.org/Faults_map.html


SCENARIO SHAKEMAP – Intensity

Updates Implemented for this ShakeMap:

Directivity towards TJ.

Vs30: Avg Seismic Shear Velocity Surface to 30Meters: new

Tijuana Vs30 & new Wills 2015 CA Vs30.

Next Generation Ground Motion Attenuation Model NGAW2.

Warmer Colors

correlate to areas of

greater damage.

This M6.9

Earthquake creates

significant damage!


4. EARTHQUAKE SECONDARY HAZARDS

• Liquefaction/Groundwater

• Seismic Landslides

• Submarine Landslide (off-shore) Tsunami

• Flooding: Rodriquez Dam – Tijuana?


Liquefaction for HAZUS

2018 Liquefaction Susceptibility Data (Modified from USGS 2008 data by San Diego Scenario Hazards Team)

2018 Depth to Groundwater Data (Modified from USGS 2008 data by San Diego Scenario Hazards Team)


Groundwater for HAZUS

2018 Liquefaction Susceptibility Data (Modified from USGS 2008 data by San Diego Scenario Hazards Team)

2018 Depth to Groundwater Data (Modified from USGS 2008 data by San Diego Scenario Hazards Team)


Seismic Slope Displacement Map

Kleinfelder GIS – PGA 2% 50 year for San Diego County


Submarine Landslide Tsunami Location


Flooding: Rodriguez Dam Failure Tijuana?


Working Group 2 – Impact to Built Environment


Schools with Moderate or Greater Damage

Plus major lifeline disruptions along coast (ground failure)


Hospitals with Moderate or Greater Damage

Plus major lifeline disruptions along coast (ground failure)


City Owned & Leased Facilities: --- key facilities concentrated around fault.

Potentially

extensive loss of

City services &

government

functions.


Consider Added Impacts from Lifeline losses due to Ground Failures

• Water & Waste Water • Rupture of major pipelines serving Coastal communities

• Bridges • Structural vulnerability despite seismic retrofits (Coronado, Mission Valley)

• Roadways & Rail lines • Closures along I-5 corridor, Amtrak, Coaster & Light-rail

• Lifelines: Pipelines & Transmission Systems • Natural gas, fuel pipeline ruptures

• Electric power & electronic communication systems disruptions

• Ports, Airports, Transportation Stations • Months disruption to SDIA and port facilities

• Border Crossings • Major disruptions due to liquefaction - bridges, access roads


Water Service Disruptions

Loss of Water

Service


Wastewater Service Disruptions

No Water

Service

= No Sewer

Service

No access

To Pt. Loma.

Sewer empties

into River & Bay


Highways & Rail Lines – Potential Disruptions

Fault rupture line

Strikes through

Highways and colored

Rail lines


Natural Gas & Petroleum Pipeline Ruptures


• The surface fault ruptures and liquefaction ground

failures are expected to have major socio-economic

impacts, not captured in the Hazus model.

• These impact are a key subject for consideration in

today’s workshop.

– What are the added impacts of these disruptions?

– (water, sewer, natural gas, petroleum, SDG&E)

– What are the recovery times?

– How many people & services for how long?

Lifeline Infrastructure Disruptions: --- Major Socio-Economic Impacts


• Inventory

– San Diego Population: 3,095,313 (2010 Census)

– 696 thousand buildings

– $379 billion in building replacement value

– $18 billion in transportation & utility lifelines

• Preliminary Loss Estimates (8-29-2018):

– Hospitals: 2,820 of 6,574 beds lost on day one

– Schools: 514 of 993 schools lose >50% functionality

– Police & fire: 40% to 50% lose >50% functionality

– Housing: 23,273 seek temporary shelter

– Fatalities: 784 Injuries: 12,800

– Economic losses: $37 Billion, plus lifeline effects

WG2 Hazus Summary – US only


A magnitude 7.1 earthquake occurred 17km (10.6 miles) NNE of Ridgecrest,

California at a depth of 17 km (10.6 miles). The earthquake was felt as far

north as San Jose and as far south as Mexico.

This earthquake follows a magnitude 6.4 Thursday that we can now define

as a foreshock. The energy released from a magnitude 7.1 earthquake is 11

times stronger than from a magnitude 6.4 earthquake.

Magnitude 7.1 RIDGECREST, CALIFORNIA Saturday, July 6, 2019 at 03:19:52 UTC


USGS PAGER

Population Exposed to Earthquake Shaking

Image courtesy of the US Geological Survey

The color coded contour lines outline regions of MMI intensity.

The total population exposure to a given MMI value is obtained by summing the

population between the contour lines. The estimated population exposure to each

MMI Intensity is shown in the table.

The USGS PAGER map shows the population

exposed to different Modified Mercalli Intensity

(MMI) levels.

30,000 people were exposed to severe shaking

from this earthquake.

Magnitude 7.1 RIDGECREST, CALIFORNIA Saturday, July 6, 2019 at 03:19:52 UTC


Ridgecrest and Trona actually received less intense shaking from the M7.1 eq than much

of the San Fernando and Santa Clarita valleys did in the 1994 M6.7 Northridge eq

Why no much damage?


Why no much damage?

LOW EXPOSURE

• Small population (Ridgecrest: 28,000; Trona: 2,000)

• Mostly 1- and 2-story buildings from 80’s

• Mostly light weight wooden structures

• Mo much infrastructure (bridges, high retaining walls, etc.)

sismos sin fronteras: dos países, una respuesta...2a reunion regional noroeste tijuana, baja...

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