situation and outlook for the 2013/14 florida citrus season december forecast
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Situation and Outlook for the 2013/14 Florida Citrus Season December forecast. FCM Board Meeting january 8, 2014. Florida orange crop, 2013-14 . December forecast. Factors of production Utilization and Juice Imports Juice supply, availability, movement and inventory - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR THE 2013/14 FLORIDA CITRUS SEASON
DECEMBER FORECAST
FCM Board Meetingjanuary 8, 2014
FLORIDA ORANGE CROP, 2013-14.DECEMBER FORECASTFACTORS OF PRODUCTION
UTILIZATION AND JUICE IMPORTS
JUICE SUPPLY, AVAILABILITY, MOVEMENT AND INVENTORY
RETAIL SALES AND PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION
NURSERY PROPAGATIONS SOURCE: FDACS, BUDWOOD ANNUAL REPORTS.
Season Orange Propagations
% Change % Oranges
2006-07 2,362,829 NA 91%2007-08 3,069,515 30% 87%2008-09 3,348,479 9% 89%2009-10 2,391,375 -29% 80%2010-11 2,541,410 6% 81%2011-12 3,172.966 25% 81%2012-13 3,898,083 23% 83%
ORANGE BEARING TREE INVENTORYFDACS/FASS. FLORIDA CITRUS STATISTICS, 2012-13.
Season Bearing Trees (000)
% Net Change
% Mortality
2006-07 63,950 NA NA2007-08 61,742 -3.5% NA2008-09 60,754 -1.6% NA2009-10 59,561 -2.0% -5.1%2010-11 58,158 -2.4% -4.9%2011-12 57,459 -1.2% -4.6%2012-13 57,146 -0.5% NA2013-14 56,794 -0.6% NA
FACTORS OF PRODUCTION SOURCE: FDACS/NASS REPORTS.
Early and Mid ValenciaSeason Pieces Drop Size Pieces Drop Size
2006-07 690 8% 233 426 15% 198
2007-08 1,058 8% 264 676 15% 221
2008-09 1,082 11% 257 575 15% 219
2009-10 866 8% 246 480 14% 218
2010-11 932 7% 280 598 16% 227
2011-12 918 13% 235 567 19% 212
2012-13 1,034 18% 274 661 22% 231
2013-14F (Dec) 918 21% 287 614 19% 243
FLORIDA ORANGE CROP UTILIZATION(1,000,000 BOXES)
FCOJ COJ Fresh Other Total
2005/06 49.1 90.2 4.5 3.9 147.7
2006/07 46.0 75.2 5.0 2.8 129.0
2007/08 78.0 85.1 4.4 2.7 170.2
2008/09 71.2 82.8 5.5 3.0 162.5
2009/10 51.3 75.1 4.5 2.8 133.7
2010/11 50.3 82.6 4.5 3.1 140.5
2011/12 63.9 75.5 4.6 2.6 146.7
2012/13 47.5 79.2 4.5 2.4 133.6
2013/14 Nov
41.1 77.0 4.5 2.4 125.0
2013/14 Dec
39.1 75.0 4.5 2.4 121.0
NFC needs are basically fixed for relevant crop sizes. The residual market is FCOJ.
US ORANGE JUICE IMPORTSOCTOBER THROUGH SEPTEMBER
Million Single Strength Gallons $ Value/SSG 11-12 12-13 % Chg 11-12 12-13 % Chg
All Imports 223.3 420.5 88%
$ 1.76
$ 1.35 -23%
Brazil
NFC 41.8
49.8 19%
$ 1.66
$ 1.49 -10%
Concentrate 60.5 187.5 210%
$ 1.54
$ 1.11 -28%
All Others
NFC 4.2
6.2 48%
$ 2.76
$ 2.40 -13%
Concentrate 116.9
177.0 51%
$ 1.87
$ 1.53 -18%
Source: US Dept of Commerce.
Brazilian prices need to have duties added, whereas ‘Others’ (Mexico and Costa Rica) do not.
FCOJ beginning inventory is priced ~$1.40/ssg!
US ORANGE JUICE IMPORTSOCTOBER 2013
Million Single Strength Gallons $ Value/SSG 12-13 13-14 % Chg 12-13 13-14 % Chg
All Imports 55.5 47.8 -14% $ 1.23
$ 1.37 12%
Brazil
NFC 5.9 7.7 30%
$ 1.43
$ 1.71 20%
Concentrate 41.1 31.9 -22%
$ 1.06
$ 1.22 15%
All Others
NFC 0.0
0.0 - 0.0 0.0 -
Concentrate 8.5 8.2 -4%
$ 1.88
$ 1.63 -13%
Source: US Dept of Commerce.
Concentrate prices are $.10 per gallon higher than where they closed in 2012/13.
Brazilian NFC prices are >$.20 per gallon higher.
FL OJ AVAILABILITY, MOVEMENT & INVENTORYCURRENT SEASON FORECAST VS YEAR AGOItem 12-13 13-14 F. (Dec) % Change
Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (MM PS)Beginning Inventory 254.13 319.47 26%
Million Boxes Utilized 47.0 39.1 -13%Juice Production 316.41 261.75 -17%Other Supplies 199.59 130.00 -35%Availability 770.13 711.22 -8%Movement 450.66 421.07 -7%Ending Inventory 319.47 290.15 -9%
Weeks Supply 37 36 -3%Chilled Orange Juice (MM PS)
Beginning Inventory 192.00 219.28 14%Million Boxes Utilized 79.2 75.0 -5%
Juice Production 519.48 502.08 -3%Other Supplies 45.06 34.00 -70%Availability 756.54 755.36 unchMovement (incl. evap) 537.26 522.68 -3%Ending Inventory 219.28 232.68 6%
Weeks Supply 21 23 9%
Source: FDOC Processor Statistics Reports.
After 12 wks
-55.6%-33.5%
-12.5%11.2%
-22.1%-72.1%
-2.3%-0.2%
US RETAIL ORANGE JUICE SALES – ALL CATEGORIES FDM PLUS WALMART
10/1
/200
3
4/1/
2004
10/1
/200
4
4/1/
2005
10/1
/200
5
4/1/
2006
10/1
/200
6
4/1/
2007
10/1
/200
7
4/1/
2008
10/1
/200
8
4/1/
2009
10/1
/200
9
4/1/
2010
10/1
/201
0
4/1/
2011
10/1
/201
1
4/1/
2012
10/1
/201
2
4/1/
2013
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
NFC PL/Generic Top 3 Recon FCOJ
SS
E G
a.
In 2003/04, Branded Recon comprised 17% of all retail sales, equivalent of 23mm boxes.The pace for 2013/14 equates to 11%, or 7mm boxes.
RETAIL ORANGE JUICE SALESBY CATEGORY: IMPORTANCE AND STD % CHANGE
RTS PRICES ARE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS YEAR, YET VOLUME CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD FOR BOTH NFC AND RECON. NFC REVENUES ARE LOWER FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2009-10.
NFC Recon FCOJ ALL OJ-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
Percent Change vs Last Season
STD: 12/21/13
Gallon Revenue PricingNFC COMPRISES 59% OF ALL RETAIL VOLUME AND 68% OF THE REVENUE, WHERE AS. RECON RTS COMPRISES 37% AND 28%, RESPECTIVELY.
Gallon Sales127.1 MM ssg
NFC Recon FCOJ SS
Source: FDOC, Nielsen Retail Sales, Monthly Top-line Report, period ending 12/21/13.
Season Beg.Inv.
FlaProd.
OtherU.S.
Prod.
U.S.End.Inv.
PresumedConsumption
IMP EXP TOTAL PerCapita
- - - - - - - - - - - - million SSE gallons - - - - - - - - - - - - Gallons
08-09 680 1,035 32 317 125 722 1,217 4.0
09-10 713 806 41 328 147 588 1,153 3.7
10-11 588 864 56 265 214 422 1,138 3.7
11-12 422 928 39 223 152 463 996 3.2
12-13p 463 839 30 421 169 539 1,045 3.3
13-14f 539 742 50 290 180 524 917 2.8
U.S. OJ SUPPLY & CONSUMPTION
FLORIDA GRAPEFRUIT CROP, 2013-14.DECEMBER FORECASTFACTORS OF PRODUCTION
UTILIZATION
JUICE SUPPLY, AVAILABILITY, MOVEMENT AND INVENTORY
PRODUCTIVITY SUB-FACTORS. AVERAGES AND DEVIATIONS FROM THE AVERAGE.SOURCE: FASS. CITRUS CROP ESTIMATE ADVISORY COMMITTEE REPORT, SEPTEMBER 19, 2013. USDA/NASS CITRUS CROP ESTIMATES.
Pieces of Fruit % Harvested Fruit per Box
Statistic Period White Red White Red White Red
Average 10-year 414 415 86% 85% 95 104
Average 6-year 414 415 86% 85% 95 104
Average 3-year 489 457 84% 84% 108 115
2013/14 November 555 500 80% 80% 122 122
2013/14 December 555 500 81% 77% 124 131
FLORIDA GRAPEFRUIT CROP UTILIZATION(1,000,000 BOXES)
FCGJ CGJ Fresh Other Total
2005/06 8.0 4.1 6.2 1.0 19.3
2006/07 11.6 4.4 10.3 0.9 27.2
2007/08 10.4 5.2 9.9 1.0 26.6
2008/09 8.4 3.7 8.7 0.9 21.7
2009/10 6.0 4.6 8.7 0.9 20.3
2010/11 7.0 4.2 7.7 0.9 19.8
2011/12 6.9 3.8 7.2 0.9 18.9
2012/13 6.1 4.2 7.1 0.9 18.3
2013/14 Nov
5.9 4.0 7.0 0.9 17.8
2013/14 Dec
5.4 3.8 6.7 0.9 16.7 NFC needs are basically fixed for relevant crop sizes. The residual
market is FCGJ.
FL GJ AVAILABILITY, MOVEMENT & INVENTORYCURRENT SEASON FORECAST VERSUS YEAR AGO
Item 12-13 13-14F. (Dec) % Change
Frozen Concentrate Grapefruit Juice (MM PS)Beginning Inventory 22.1 20.7 -7%
Million Boxes Utilized 6.1 5.4 -12%Juice Production 29.2 25.4 -13%Other Supplies 2.8 0.2 -93%Availability 54.1 47.7 -12%Movement 33.4 29.0 -12%Ending Inventory 20.7 18.3 -11%
Weeks Supply 32 33 1%
Chilled Grapefruit Juice (MM PS)Beginning Inventory 12.1 11.2 -8%
Million Boxes Utilized 4.2 3.8 -11%Juice Production 20.5 17.7 -14%Other Supplies 1.1 0.1 -91%Availability 33.7 29.0 14%Movement (incl. evap) 22.5 17.5 -10%Ending Inventory 11.2 10.0 -10%
Weeks Supply 30 30 unch
Source: FDOC Processor Statistics Reports. EMRA Forecasts for 2013-14, 12/2/13.
After 12 wks
-38%
-14.9%-13.5%
49%
-20.2% 7.1%
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