Six Major Factors in Energy Planning

Robert L. Hirsch

Senior Energy Program Advisor, SAIC

March 1, 2004

National Energy Technology Laboratory

Hirsch 3_04

Acknowledgements

The author wishes to thank a number of colleagues who commented on various drafts of this report. Special appreciation is extended to Roger Herrera, retired geologist, BP Corporation, and President, Northern Knowledge, who provided important geological insights and who helped focus the petroleum portion of this study. Special thanks go to Dr. Marcus Milling, Executive Director, American Geological Institute, for his thoughtful comments. Others whose assistance was greatly appreciated include Rebecca Rubin, Marstel Day, Dr. David Greene, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Dr. Roger Bezdek, MISI, John McCaughey, veteran energy journalist, and Prof.. William Fisher, University of Texas. Final responsibility for the material herein is strictly the author’s.

This work was sponsored by the National Energy Technology Laboratory of the Department of Energy, under Contract No. DE-AM26-99FT40575, Task 21006W. The author is indebted to NETL management for their encouragement and support.

Hirsch 3_04

Abstract

Energy “crises” over the last 30 years should have been labeled “interruptions.” Only the 1973 oil embargo resulted in significant change. We’ve been “crying wolf.”

Expect slow, modest, incremental attention to

Deteriorating energy infrastructure problems.

Growing dependence on imported oil & natural gas.

Growing dependence on imported petroleum products.

The timing of serious decisions on climate issues is not predictable due to scientific uncertainties, huge costs, and the absence of an international treaty.

Peaking of world oil production could well be an energy disaster, requiring heretofore unimagined change. More understanding is needed.

Hirsch 3_04

Six Factors

Topics

Major Energy Changes

Public Attitudes Towards Energy

Some Energy History

Current & Emerging Energy Issues

World Oil Production Peaking

Hirsch 3_04

Nation-scale changes in energy generation & conservation are time consuming & often very expensive.

Consumer Conditioning: Computers & electronics are small, progressively lower in cost & fast to market.

Crash programs are possible but very expensive.

Major Energy Changes

Gigawatt power plants are billion $ class & decade-scale.

1970s CAFE took roughly 15 years to maximum savings.

Alaska Gas Pipeline: Estimated at $10-20 billion & a decade to build.

Major new electric transmission lines take 5 years - never.

A GW of wind power requires 1000 - 1.0 MW wind turbines.

Refineries are very expensive. None built for so long; costs unknown.

Hirsch 3_04

2020

2020

2020

2020

2020

2020

2020

20

~ 20 years &

$300 billion

Illustration of Time & Cost of a Major Energy Change

33% of today’s electric generation (~ 900 GW ) by Building 20 new, 1.0 GW power plants each year. Assume a plant takes 5 years to build (no permit delays)

& costs $1 billion

Consider replacing

Hirsch 3_04

Planning Factor #1:

Major changes in the U.S. energy system require decade time scales & can cost upwards of hundreds of billions of dollars.

Hirsch 3_04

When problems occur, quick fixes are expected.

Public Perceptions & Attitudes About Energy

Like air & water, energy is taken for granted.

Low cost, abundant energy is considered a right / expected.

Modest changes in energy prices are an outrage.

Occasional blackouts / shortages are quickly forgotten.

Energy knowledge is limited & often very distorted.

To some people energy companies are greedy polluters.

Hirsch 3_04

Energy Policymaking

Energy is typically not a “traction” issue with the public.

[Traction issues include the economy, jobs, Iraq, prescription drug

benefits, the upcoming election, federal budget deficit, Medicare,

terrorism, crime, traffic congestion, etc.]

Energy companies lobby & make large campaign contributions.

Environmental groups lobby, make contributions, & are highly vocal.

Issues of states rights often conflict with national planning.

Credible studies by unbiased groups rarely have large impact.

Cost-benefit analysis are rarely a factor in decision-making.

Hirsch 3_04

INTERRUPTION:

A break in continuity or uniformity.

CRISIS:

An unstable condition … in which an abrupt or

decisive change is impending... a turning point.

Dictionary Definitions

Hirsch 3_04

Weren’t these more like Interruptions = “breaks in continuity”

rather thanCrises = “turning points”?

Since the LATE 1970s, the U.S. has experienced a number of events that were

called “Energy Crises”

2003 N.E. Electricity Blackout 2002 Natural Gas Price “Shock” 2000 Calif./West Coast Blackout 1991 Oil Price Runup 1986 Oil Price Collapse 1979 Oil Price Escalation

Hirsch 3_04

Some of What Happened in the U.S.:

Only One Energy Event Was Arguably a Real Crisis --A Turning Point:

Oil prices increased ~ 4.5 x (Saudi crude)

Gasoline rationed (Even/Odd days)

Gasoline lines & spot shortages.

GDP dropped two years in a row (recession).

Interest rates spiked dramatically upward.

Inflation increased sharply.

There was a huge wealth transfer to OPEC.

The 1973 Oil Embargo

Hirsch 3_04

U.S. Actions Resulting From the 1973 Oil Embargo

Price controls enacted. CAFE implemented. Higher efficiency mandated in a variety of sectors. National speed limit (55 mph) enacted. Domestic oil & gas exploration & production spiked up. Federal energy R & D dramatically increased. A major effort in synthetic fuels initiated. Windfall profit taxes levied. U.S. government reorganized to form ERDA, FEA & FERC. IEA formed. Strategic Petroleum Reserve established. Formulation of a coherent national energy policy initiated. Foreign policy adjusted to new realities.

Hirsch 3_04

Today’s Often Mentioned Energy Concerns

Local air pollution due to energy use.

National Security (oil import vulnerabilities).

Global climate impacts of energy use.

Hirsch 3_04

Concern Actions-to-Date Current Situation

OIL IMPORTS - Synfuels Corp. failed - Defacto it’s easiest to (National Security) - Decades of talk use the military

but no action - Hydrogen a distant option

Energy-related - Major progress over - Most regions doing well but

AIR POLLUTION recent decades some merit more effort

- Midwest coal an issue

More on Global Climate later

Commentary on Today’s Primary Public Energy Concerns

Hirsch 3_04

Planning Factor #2:

Energy policymaking will continue to be

slow, modest & incremental, absent a

major new energy crisis.

Hirsch 3_04

Global Climate Change

CO2 is a greenhouse gas & is increasing in the atmosphere.

Fossil fuel burning is a contributor.

95% of the greenhouse effect is due to water vapor for which there is no long-term historical data & little real understanding.

Climate is incredibly complex / many unknowns, so legitimate scientific differences are likely to persist for sometime.

For some, the potential is so dire they want significant action now.

For others, expensive action now would be irresponsible.

Hirsch 3_04

The World CO2 Situation

Every country emits CO2.

Small U.S. reductions might be symbolic but not physically significant.

Major, unilateral U.S. cuts would be costly, disadvantaging the U.S. economically.

If major unilateral U.S. action, the self-interest of others would be delay.

Kyoto is effectively dead. In new international treaty negotiations, countries will vie for strategic advantage.

Underdeveloped countries will want others to pay.

Renewed treaty negotiations will be difficult & time consuming.

U.S. targets are undefined: 25%? 50%? 75%? By when?

Hirsch 3_04

Planning Factor #3:

The timing & magnitude of major U.S. climate change actions are not now predictable.

Hirsch 3_04

Emerging Energy Concerns

Worsening condition of the U.S. Energy infrastructure.

Growing dependence on natural gas imports (lng).

Growing dependence on petroleum product imports

Peaking of world oil production.

Hirsch 3_04

U.S. Energy Infrastructure Deterioration

Natural Gas Use & LNG Imports

Peaking of world oil production discussed later.

Outlook

Petroleum Product Imports (Gasoline, Diesel,

etc.)

• Breakdowns / shortages likely.• Fixes will be made as needed. • Costs will be spread over time.

Concern

• Shortages possible.

• High prices almost certain.

• Large price volatility likely.• Less-than-projected gas use.

• PRODUCT QUALITY?

• Shortages possible.

• Higher prices possible.

Energy Concerns Outlook

Hirsch 3_04

Planning Factor #4:

Energy Infrastructure problems will be addressed as needed, & we will muddle through.

Planning Factor #5:

Growing natural gas & petroleum product imports will be accepted & allowed to grow.

Hirsch 3_04

Time - Decades

Pro

du

ctio

n

Notional Production from a Typical Oil Reservoir

Peaking of World Oil Production

Oil is the lifeblood of modern civilization. Oil is found in reservoirs of all sizes, depths, &

characteristics in a limited number of places in the world. Super-Giant fields (the very largest) are generally the

easiest to find & least expensive to produce. Most geologists agree that at some future date, world old

production will reach a maximum -- it will peak. Peaking is not “running out;” it’s roughly half-way to

depletion.

Hirsch 3_04

MOST OIL NOW PRODUCED IS “CONVENTIONAL”.

Peaking of World Oil Production (Cont.)

Oil is hard to find because it’s normally buried deep in the earth & normally doesn’t show at the surface.

Once found by an exploratory well, many more wells are required to achieve optimum production and enable a good estimate of reserves.

When natural forces diminish, water flooding, and Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) can extend production for years.

Two oil classifications are “Conventional” & “Unconventional.”

Hirsch 3_04

Peaking of World Oil Production (Cont.)

World petroleum demand is huge and growing.

Past peaking predictions:

“It’s coming in 10 - 20 years” - WRONG!

What’s different today? Extensive drilling worldwide.

Modern geology & seismic technology is very advanced.

Reserves / well have been dropping for ~ decade.

Many more credentialled specialists are pessimistic.

World oil peaking could be economically disastrous.

Hirsch 3_04

Hirsch 3_04

Hirsch 3_04

Time - DecadesP

rod

uct

ion

A. Notional Production - Constant Price

B. Production When Price Increases After 5 Years

C. Production When Price Increases After 10 Years

Production from an Oil Reservoir - Three Cases

Hirsch 3_04

Time - Decades

Pro

duct

ion

Assume this

individual reservoir

profile

Assumed stages of

productionP

rodu

ctio

n

Sum of three profiles

Time - Decades

1 2

3

1

2

3

A.B.

C.

Thought Exercise: Sum Just Three at Different Stages of Production

World Oil Production = Output of All Reservoirs

Hirsch 3_04

Total World Oil Production-

When is the peak ????

World Oil Production = Outputs of All Reservoirs

Hirsch 3_04

As noted, conventional oil has been the mainstay of modern civilization, because it is most easily brought to the surface from deep underground reservoirs, and, additionally, it is most easily refined into finished fuels. The U.S. was endowed with huge quantities of petroleum, which fueled our economic growth in the early and mid twentieth century. However, our resources are finite, and growing demand resulted in the peaking of Lower 48 U.S. oil production in the early 1970s. It has been in decline ever since. Because demand for petroleum products continued to rise, the U.S. became an oil importer. Today, we depend on foreign sources for almost 60% of our needs, and future U.S. imports are projected to to rise to 70% of demand by 2025[11].

Exploration for and production of petroleum resources has been on-going since the mid 1800s and in the last 50 years has been an increasingly more technological enterprise, benefiting from increasingly more sophisticated engineering capabilities, geological understanding, instrumentation, computing power, materials, etc. Today’s technology allows oil reservoirs to be more readily understood sooner than heretofore. Accordingly, reservoirs can be produced more rapidly, which has significant economic advantages to the operators but also hastens peaking and depletion.

Oil production in the world today can be viewed according to operating approach: 1) Oil reservoirs that are produced at their maximum economic rate -- essentially “flat out” -- and 2) reservoirs whose production is limited by operator choice to less than than the maximum possible. These later reservoirs -- called “swing capacity” -- are primarily managed by the OPEC countries, which self-limit their production in order to maintain world oil prices near their target levels.____________________________________

[11] EIA. Early Release AEO 2004. December 16, 2003.

Hirsch 3_04

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50 B

illi

on b

arre

ls

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

“With the world now finding less than one barrel for every four it consumes, the pressure on capacity can only increase in the future. The gap is growing wider.”

World Oil Finding / Consumption Balance

Hirsch 3_04

Resource Size Est. Recoverable

(Trillion Barrels) (Billion Barrels)

Canadian Heavy Oil 1.7-2.5 315

Venezuela Heavy Oil 1.2 270

Approx. Totals 3-4 600

100+ MM bbls / day total world demand 40 billion bbls / year

How long will 600 billion bbls last?

Time

Can

ada

+

Ven

ezu

ela

Un

con

ven

tio

nal

O

il P

rod

uct

ion

Now Conv. Oil Peak

Unconv. Oil Peak

I II III

Unconventional Oil - The Two Biggest

Hirsch 3_04

Hirsch 3_04

2000

2010

2020

2030

Various Views on the Timing of World Oil Peaking

Simmons: Peaking is at hand: 3-5 years

Laherrère: All H/C liquids peak during the 2010s

Campbell: Conventional oil peak around 2010

Skrebowski: Conventional oil peak after 2007

EIA: Nominal Case ~ 2030

Hirsch 3_04

Hirsch 3_04

Hirsch 3_04

Planning Factor #6:

World oil production peaking is unavoidable, but its timing is uncertain. It might well mute other planning factors.

Hirsch 3_04

Six Important Factors in Energy Planning

1. Major changes in the U.S. energy system require decade time scales & can cost upwards of hundreds of billions of dollars.

2. Energy policymaking will continue to be slow, modest & incremental, absent a major new energy crisis.

3. The timing & magnitude of major U.S. climate change actions are not now predictable.

4. Energy infrastructure problems will get fixed as needed, & we will muddle through.

5. Growing natural gas & petroleum product imports will be accepted and allowed to grow.

6. World oil production peaking unavoidable, but its timing is uncertain. It might well mute other planning factors.

Hirsch 3_04

I. Energy Policy Commentary

II. Note on Global Climate Change

III. Statements on World Oil Production Peaking

IV. Aspects of Oil Production Peaking

Appendices

Hirsch 3_04

Secretary Abraham:

There are no quick fixes to the (natural gas) price spikes and volatility ... witnessed in recent years.

IPAA:

The government... not ... listening to important warning signs. “…policymakers have not yet enacted previous recommendations..”

Alliance to Save Energy:

Given our nation’s long history of short memories when it comes to energy crises… (commends the NPC study).

Wilderness Society:

Environmentalists are not opposed to drilling. We just want to see more energy efficiency and conservation.”

Sample “Crisis” Commentary - 2002 Natural Gas Price Spike

Hirsch 3_04

Appendix II-1

Commentary on Global Climate by a Long Standing Environmentalist [16]

“Some 20-plus years ago, ... a House Science Committee (heard from) Harvard environmental guru, the late Roger Revelle, and the distinguished Carnegie Mellon University environmental economist Lester Lave. ….the committee had asked the academics to advise the legislators on what to do if global warming is real…. “Both Revelle and Lave, from two very different disciplines and of two different political inclinations, agreed: adaptation is the only practical policy option. Climate warming, they said, was a slow-moving problem, if real. But it was also huge, and its implications were so diverse that it would be impossible to mount a global consensus on significant reductions in carbon emissions.“The under-reported truth of Kyoto is that the highly-touted treaty would have virtually no impact on worldwide CO2 emissions. Everyone who has studied the subject in any depth, including those who continue to advocate the treaty, acknowledge this. Those who support Kyoto upon principled grounds ... argue that it is only a first step, and that much more will be needed by way of carbon reductions. They are wrong and dangerous.“To deal with climate change,” says Kendra Okonski, editor of Adapt or Die and director of the sustainable development project at the London-based International Policy Network, “we should adopt policies that promote human well being, both today and in the future. We could do this today by eliminating disease and poverty, developing new technologies, and reducing humanity’s vulnerability to climate change. In contrast, the Kyoto Protocol requires huge expenditures today for negligible benefits in the far future.”“Attempts to control the climate through restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions would have little effect on the earth’s climate,” says Okonski, “but would harm our ability to adapt to climate change by slowing economic growth and diverting resources into inappropriate uses.”_____________________________

[16] Maize, K. Adaptation - The Right Greenhouse Stuff. The Electricity Daily. December 15, 2003.Kennedy Maize is the founder and editor of Electricity Daily. Previously, he worked for the Associated Press, Congressional Quarterly, The Energy Daily, the Union of Concerned Scientists, and Friends of the Earth. He lives in a passive solar home in northern Maryland.

Hirsch 3_04

Peaking is at hand, not years away. The world has no “Plan B.”

Simmons Highlights

Over the period 1996-1999, $410 billion spent by 145 E & P companies to keep production flat.

$150 billion spent by big five to barely grow production 1999-2002. North Sea: U.K. sector peaked in 1999 / Norwegian sector in 2002. Early 1990’s: Caspian Sea was thought to be the next Middle East.

20 dry holes out of 25 wells were drilled in 2001. BP & Statoil then sold out.

Saudi Arabia: No major exploration successes since the1960s. Almost all fields have high & rising water cuts.

“Proved reserves” dropped 37% after the sixth well in Canada’s Sable Island oil field.

All the great Middle East finds happened years ago. Forecasting next year’s declines is an art form.

Hirsch 3_04

• Approach: Detailed tabulation of actual oil projects worldwide.

+ Considered 54 approved mega projects - Over 500 million boe.- Over 100,000 b/d potential.

+ Mega projects provide ~80% of world oil supply.

• 25-33% of world oil production now in decline.

• After 2007 new capacity likely falls short of demand and depletion.

World Oil Mega Projects Decline

Skrebowski, C. Oil Field Mega Projects - 2004. Petroleum Review. January 2004

The world may be entering an era of permanently declining(conventional) oil supplies in the coming decade.

Hirsch 3_04

Production of all hydrocarbon liquids could peak during the 2010s.

Laherrère Highlights.

Data quality impacted by definitions, sources, confidentiality, politics, & physical uncertainties.

Pessimists use confidential technical data, optimists use political data.

OPEC production quotas are based on “reserves.” From 1986 to 1990 “reserves” increased by ~300 Gb, while only ~10 Gb were actually discovered.

US reserves are conservative / FSU based on maximum theoretical.

World oil discovery peaked during the 1960s.

Hirsch 3_04

Recent New York Times: Forecast of Rising Oil Demand Challenges Tired Saudi Fields.

Serious doubts Saudi Arabia can increase oil production. Former Saudi oil executive: Increased oil production is possible, but

global markets will be short by 2015. Saudi Aramco official: Attempts to increase output would wreak

reservoir havoc. Another Saudi executive: “(Production) declines are real & must be

replaced.” ExxonMobil: More than 50 percent of oil in 2010 must come from

new fields worldwide. The problem is much larger now because the world’s demands are so high.

Saudi Aramco: The decline rate for its mature fields “is in the range of 8% per year.” Additional investment might slow that decay rate (but not increase peak production).

Every oil field is unique, and experts cannot predict how long each might last.

Hirsch 3_04

What DOE Fossil Energy Says

Oil a finite resource / production will eventually peak.

Some analysts: conventional oil might peak in 2015.

If resource twice as large, peak about 20 years later.

Alternates are needed.

Hirsch 3_04

2030

EIA WORLD OIL PRODUCTION PEAK PROJECTION

Hirsch 3_04

Shell Adjusts Reserves Downward

Shell announced January 9, 2004, a downward recategorization of reserves: 3.9 billion barrels of oil equivalent or 20% of its worldwide total.

Of the recategorization two thirds (2.7 billion barrels) relates to crude oil (and natural gas liquids) and one third natural gas. 

Shell did not expect the recategorization to have a material impact on near-term production. Shell expects production to be broadly flat for 2003 – 2005. Shell said proved reserves were equivalent to 13.3 years of

production. Finally, they expected 2003 reserve replacement to be 70-

90%.

Hirsch 3_04

Other Statements Shell Oil: “We think oil supplies, including unconventional

sources and natural gas liquids, will not peak before 2025 and could be later.”

Campbell: “The precise date of peak depends very much on demand…and in any case is unlikely to be delayed much beyond 2010.”

Bakhtiari: “Middle East (oil) production should …peak early in the next (decade).”

Bentley: “The last (oil) shocks were no more than minor tremors, but they tipped the world into recession. (The coming) shock is very different; it is driven by resource constraints, not politics; it is permanent.”

CERA: “We anticipate that global liquids capacity will... be sufficient to meet projected demand through at least 2020.”

Hirsch 3_04

Quotations from a Recent World Oil Modeling Study from ORNL

… risk analyses … are dependent on a number of critical assumptions, nearly all of which are debatable.

… a timely signal to markets (may not happen).

… short-term fluctuations in oil prices could very well obscure the long-term signal.

… short-run disruptions could be very expensive.

… it is not too soon to begin analyzing potential transitions

Hirsch 3_04

Scaled Up Enhance Oil RecoveryMore Tar/Heavy Oil Production

Alternate Liquid Fuel Production

More Development Drilling

Economic Growths or RecessionsNew End-Use Technology Implementation

Conventional Oil Production

Government Policy Changes / Rationing

Price Driven Consumption Reduction

HUNDREDS OF MAJOR DECISION-MAKERS WORLD

WIDE

Duration of Very High Priced Hydrocarbon Liquid Fuels

No one knows. It will likely be more than a decade & will depend on many factors:

Hirsch 3_04

Recent Commentary on the Current, Non-Crisis Oil Market Illuminate Some of the Connections & Variables That May Come Into Play at the Time of World Oil Peaking

by Economist Irwin Stelzer [33]

(Oil) is so crucial to the functioning of industrial economies … past price jumps have thrown America and, in some cases, the world, into protracted periods of subpar growth.

The economic recovery in America is stimulating demand as more trucks deliver more goods to factories, warehouses and stores, while a cold snap drives up the demand for heating oil. Add in low inventories, and you have a prescription for higher prices.

China’s thirst for oil seems to know no slaking. Imports are running 30% above last year’s level, according to the latest report from the International Energy Agency, and China has displaced Japan as the world’s second largest consumer of oil, behind the US. China now accounts for about one-third of the annual increase in worldwide demand for oil. …Forecasters at the Development Research Centre, a Chinese think tank, are guessing that the number of cars in China will quintuple to 100 million (about half the US total) in the next ten years. The International Energy Agency expects China to be importing 10 million barrels per day by 2030, which is about what America currently buys from the world’s producers.

More important in the long run is the fact that the damage to (Iraq’s) oil fields from years of neglect during the Saddam regime is more serious than at first thought, and will take billions of dollars and a good long while to repair before Iraq can add substantially to world supplies.

Nor will relief come from Venezuela, where a Castro-loving president has reduced the industry’s productive capacity by slotting his political cronies into top executive positions.

Which leaves Russia, the world’s largest producer behind Saudi Arabia. ….Still, renewed political uncertainty following the jailing of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, former chairman of oil giant Yukos, and infrastructure constraints will prevent Russian production from growing sufficiently to dampen the price impact of rising demand.

In short, world demand for oil is likely to increase steadily, while supplies lag.

______[33] Stelzer, I. Economic News Update. December 14, 2003. A version of this Update appeared in The Sunday Times (London)

Hirsch 3_04

Hirsch 3_04

Production

Inflation & recession in developed counties

Depression in undeveloped counties

Dramatic political upheavals / wars?

Relaxation of drilling & environmental restrictions

Approaching the peak

Oil price escalation worldwide

Voluntary consumer reductions where possible

Government rationing & allocations

Possible Impacts Approaching Peak World Oil Production

Hirsch 3_04

Hirsch 3_04

Bottom Line on World Oil Peaking:No One Knows When!

Improve understanding: Summarize & publish production / reserve data &

opinions. Workshops, roundtables, Academies studies, etc. Determination of likely early warning signals. Economic analysis of approach to & after peaking. Understand the costs of timing errors.

Develop alternatives & mitigation options. Stimulate thoughtful policy discussions. Rethink federal energy R & D.

What Might We Do Now?