skill assessment for coupled physical-biological models of marine systems daniel r. lynch dennis j....
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Skill Assessment for Coupled Physical-Biological Models
of Marine Systems
Daniel R. Lynch
Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Jr.
Francisco E. Werner
Sponsors:
NOAA - CSCOR
NSF - CMG
Prepared for:
U.S. GLOBEC Pan-Regional Synthesis Workshop
27 November - 1 December 2006
NCAR, Boulder CO
OverviewGoals
Assess the state-of-the-art
Provide recommendations in support of Agency programs
Deliverables
Special volume of peer-reviewed contributions
Report to NOAA summarizing progress
Topical Organization
Scientific
Carbon Cycle
Harmful Algal Blooms
Ecosystem Dynamics and Fisheries
Estuarine/Coastal Water Quality
Cross -Cutting Themes
Skill Vocabulary
Metrics
Data Assimilation
Participation
Apex Contributions, Invited
GLOBECECOHABSABJGOFSEuropean Shelf Seas
Contributions
18 -- 30 papers42 et al -- 55 et al people
TimelineJanuary '06 Invitations out
July '06 Authors' Workshop 1Vocabulary Rev. 1Working Groups: DA, Metrics
Dec ‘06 Working Group Reports to Editors
Feb ‘07 Vocabulary Rev. 2 + Working Group Report Distribution
March '07 Authors’ Workshop 2
April ‘07 MS Submission; Peer Review Start
April ‘08 Final Copy to PrinterReport goes to NOAA
Peer-Reviewed Publication
Journal of Marine Systems
Coordination
3 Community Pieces
Vocabulary
Metrics
Data Assimilation
http://www-nml.dartmouth. edu/
Publications/internal_reports/
NML-06-Skill/
Vocabulary
Vocabulary
The first Bloom!
55 GLOBEC Contributions
Dartmouth
WHOI
UNH
UNC
Dalhousie
Rutgers
NMFS - WH
NMFS - Narragansett
NMFS - Sandy Hook
DFO - Halifax
DFO - St Andrew’s
DFO - Victoria
Reused in ECOHAB, SAB, EIRE, SWVI, NERRS, CICEET, RMRP, SeaGrant
,
Skill: Conformance to Truth • State of Model and Truth
• Processes - Internal Dynamics
• Modes of Expression - Properties, Features• Equilibria• Instabilities• Spectra• Covariance• Population Structure
The Realm of Error
Skill Assessment
• Judgement about Skill
• Future, Past
The realm of Mistake
What is Truth?
What is Truth?
Data Model
d m
Misfit
What is Truth?
Data Model
Truth real but unknowable
Errors unknowable
Prediction a credible blend:
Data + Model
Blend: Invokes statistics of d , m
Prediction Error: blend of d , m
Misfit: = d - m
d m
Misfit
Prediction
p
What is Truth?
Data Model
d m
Misfit
Prediction
p
Skill:Misfits
Small, Noisy
Deduced Inputs Small, Smooth
Features Credible
Truth real but unknowable
Errors unknowable
Prediction a credible blend:
Data + Model
Invokes statistics of d , m
Prediction Error: blend of d , m
Misfit: = d - m
Features Ex: a Retentive Gyre
• Physical Features– Is there a gyre?
– Size?
– Location?
– Timing?
– Residence Time?
– Entrance Paths?
– Exit Paths?
• Relative to Organism– Cohort
– Density
– Scale
– Age / Stage
– Onset / Demise
– Vital Rates
Bloom!
Misfit MetricsQuadratic Form
= W
W = Cov-1()
= d+
m
Importance of
Data Error
Model Error (Unmodeled part of Truth)
“Dictatorship of Measurement”
Regularization
Data Sparse --> Indeterminacy
= W p* Wp p
Importance of Prior
= W p* Wp p
Joint estimation of and p
Regularization adds bias toward prior
BPE - Best Prior Estimate
BPE is PDG --> small, p small
Post-Optimality Judgement
• Beyond Misfit
• Model - Truth
• Criterion?
Causality
Prior / Posterior
Logical
Previous / Subsequent
Temporal
Forward / Inverse
Influence in Classic Initial/Boundary Value Problem
StatisticsDistributions by Moments
Value of Moments: mean, variance, …
Ensemble within which Moments occur
Ex: 3 different ensembles
all previous realizations of a field
“Field variability”
all possible observations of this field
“Instrument Error”, “Noise”
all possible estimates of this field
“Inverse Noise”
Data and State Estimation
Time of Occurrence(Ocean)
Time of Availability(Information)
Future
(Now)
Past
Time
Time of Occurrence(Ocean)
Time of Availability(Information)
Forecast
Nowcast
Hindcast
All Data
Time of Occurrence(Ocean)
Time of Availability(Information)
Forecast
Nowcast
Hindcast
All Data
Time of Occurrence(Ocean)
Time of Availability(Information)
Forecast
Nowcast
HindcastAll Data
Model‘Data Product’
Time of Occurrence(Ocean)
Time of Availability(Information)
Forecast
Nowcast
Hindcast
Data Used
Bell
Time of Occurrence(Ocean)
Time of Availability(Information)
Forecast
Nowcast
Hindcast
Data Used
Bell Publication