slide 1 british columbia. slide 2 economy slide 3 real gdp annual per cent change bc growth...
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![Page 1: SLIDE 1 British Columbia. SLIDE 2 Economy SLIDE 3 Real GDP annual per cent change BC growth outperforms Canada and the US Forecast Sources: Statistics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062714/56649d415503460f94a1c02b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
SLIDE 1
British Columbia
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SLIDE 2
Economy
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SLIDE 3
2.3
3.7
4.5
3.33.0
2.82.82.92.8
2.4
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Real GDPannual per cent change
BC growth outperforms Canada and the US
Forecast
Sources: Statistics Canada, BC Ministry of Finance
Canada
BC
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SLIDE 4
Year-to-Date
Jan – Dec 2007/ Jan – Dec 2006
Employment +3.2
Retail Sales +7.1
Housing Starts +7.6
Building Permits (Non-Residential) +0.2
Mfg Shipments -3.3
Exports -6.5
(annual per cent change)
Domestic economy strong in 2007
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SLIDE 5
Other13.4%
US62.1%
Japan13.1%
China4.6%
Other Asia6.8%
OntarioBC
US86.3%
Asia2.2%
Other11.5%
Other6.1%
Asia5.9%
US88.0%
Alberta
25 per cent of BC’s trade is with Asia
Source: BC Stats
Avg annual share of international goods exports by province, 2005-2007
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SLIDE 6
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Jan Mar May July Sept Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan
Forecast annual per centchange in US real GDP
Source: Consensus EconomicsThe chart represents forecasts for US real GDP growth in 2007 and 2008 as polled on specific dates. For example, forecasters surveyed on February 11th, 2008 had an average 2008 US growth forecast of 1.6 per cent, while on June 11th, 2007 they forecast 2008 US growth at 2.9 per cent.
2008
20072.2% Feb
1.6% Feb
2006 2007 2008
US outlook deteriorates
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SLIDE 7
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500 SPF 2X4; $US/000 bd ft
Sources: Madison’s Lumber Reporter; Ministry of Finance
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Forecast
US$300
Budget 2008
First Quarterly Report 2007
US$213
US$275
2012
Forestry prices remain weak
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SLIDE 8
Prudence
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SLIDE 9
Prudence remains important
Five levels of prudence maintained in
Budget 2008, for 2008/09:
• Conservative economic assumptions
• $375M in 1% contingency
• $750M forecast allowance
• $50M surplus
• $200M in 5% capital contingency
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SLIDE 10
A Budget for Climate Action
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SLIDE 11
Revenue neutral carbon tax
784
395
415
255
Carbon tax revenues Tax reductions
Personal income tax reductions
Low income climate action
tax credit
Corporate income tax reductions
Small business corporate income
tax reductions
2008/09 through 2010/11; $ millions
1,8491,849
Every dollar raised by carbon tax is
returned to taxpayers by law
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SLIDE 12
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Gradual implementation
$/tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions
Revenue neutral carbon tax
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SLIDE 13
Revenue neutral carbon tax
$116
$810
$4,531
$0$205
$2,526
Budget 2001 Budget 200844%
reduction
75% reduction
100% reduction
Senior couple $30,000
Individual $20,000
Family of four $70,000
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SLIDE 14
Revenue neutral carbon tax
16.5
4.5
11.0
3.5
10.0
2.5
General rate Small Business rate
Budget 2001
Budget 2008
Plan for 2011
(per centof taxable income)
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SLIDE 15
Over $1B for climate action
Incentives for business such as:
• Green Ports Initiative
• Biodiesel Production Incentive
• Green Lights Transportation Program
• Venture capital equity tax credit budget increased
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SLIDE 16
Building on our economic strengths
• Eliminate corporation capital tax
• Reduce the school tax rate for major
industrial properties
• Extend and enhance film tax credits
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SLIDE 17
$0.8
$0.4
$0.8$0.4
$0.8
$1.6
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
Budget 2008 increase $2.9
Ministry of Health Budget
($ billions)
Budget 2007 increase $2.0
$13.0
6.2% $13.8
5.9% $15.4
5.9% $14.6
$2.9B to support health care
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SLIDE 18
Debt
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SLIDE 19
Taxpayer debt remains affordable
14.4%
20.8%
20.0%
14.1% 14.0% 13.9%
18.2%
20.6%
13.7%
20.6%21.3%
14.0%
16.1%
13.9%14.1%
18.3%20.2% 20.3%
16.2%
14.8%
01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
Forecast
Annual debt to GDP ratio
3-year moving average
debt to GDP ratio
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SLIDE 20
Gross Debt: $37.7 BillionNet Debt: $35.0 BillionEstimated for March 31, 2008
Diversified debt portfolio
Public Cdn50%
CPP & Other16%
Private Cdn17%
Public Japan1%
Public Europe7%
Global Cdn2%
Public US3% Global US
4%
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SLIDE 21
Debt management
• $5.2 billion borrowing program for 2008/09
• $4.6 to $5.0 billion in outer years
• Very manageable borrowing program for AAA credit
• Will rely on province’s significant access to domestic and international capital markets
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SLIDE 22
Summary / Budget 2008
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SLIDE 23
• Revenue neutral carbon tax
• Over $1B for climate change
• Further tax cuts for businesses and individuals
• Investments to strengthen our economy
• Prudent plan
• Funding for key social services
Budget 2008
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SLIDE 24
Disclosure statements
Certain statements used in this presentation are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and not statements of historical fact. These statements are based on the Province’s current estimates or projections and therefore you should not place undue reliance on them. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which could cause the state of our economy to differ materially from the forecasts and economic outlook expressed or implied by any forward-looking statements. We refer you to the Province’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for a discussion of the various factors that may affect the Province’s economy. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made. The Province undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements except as required by law.
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SLIDE 25