slide-1 donald carlton fire program solutions cheetah 3: an overview

Slide-1

Donald CarltonFire Program Solutions

Cheetah 3: An Overview

Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007Annual Predictive Services Workshop, Santa Fe, 11-6-2007

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Introduction

Fire Program Solutions, LLCDonald Carlton17067 Hood CourtSandy, Oregon 97055(503) 668-1390 (Voice)Email: [email protected] Page: http://www.fireps.com


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Cheetah 3

Computerized Harmonic Evaluation of Episodes

and Tools for Assessment

and Help


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Objectives

Provide a overview of the program capabilities to support decision processes.

Provide an overview of the purpose and structure of the Cheetah 3 software programs

Provide a overview of the program inputs, outputs.


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Decisions vs Outcomes

Favorable

Uninformed

Informed

Unfavorable

Decision

Outcomes

Where You Want to be

Lucky

Unlucky

Deserving


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Examples of Decision Support

Historical fire occurrence rates and patterns over a defined period of time

Specific firefighting resource needs during a moderately short period of time such as 2 weeks.

Financial projections of expected costs over a defined period of time

Others?


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Programs

Cheetah 3 Manager

– Program data management– Used to load and manage fire occurrence and

organizational data– Password protected

Cheetah 3 Analyzer

– Decision support– Define Analysis Sets– Do historic fire occurrence analysis– Do firefighting resource needs analysis


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Fire Occurrence


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Fire Occurrence

Agencies and States for 1980 - 2006

– U.S Forest Service– Bureau of Land Management– Bureau of Indian Affairs– Fish and Wildlife Service– National Park Service– States

• Alaska• Washington• Oregon• California


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Fire Occurrence

Data fields in the fires master database

– Unit identifier– Discovery date– Fire number– Fire size (acres to nearest tenth)– Statistical cause code (DOI definitions)– Datum – Latitude (decimal degrees) – Longitude (decimal degrees) – Fire Contain Date (MM/DD/YYYY) – Fire Contain Time (military time i.e. 1900) – Fire Control Date (MM/DD/YYYY) – Fire Control Time (military time i.e. 1900)


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Fire Occurrence

All fires assigned to an organizational unit and a GACC

– Fire reports do not have a GACC field– A unit organization table has the GACC for

each organizational unit– The GACC is assigned on import via a lookup

– Where reorganization has occurred, the unit a fire is assigned to may not be the one currently for the fire’s location


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Cheetah 3 Analyzer


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Cheetah 3 Analyzer

The program has two distinct but related sides

– Historic fire occurrence analysis

and

– Firefighting resource requirements analysis


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Cheetah 3 Analyzer

All analysis is done with an Analysis Set

Analysis Set parameters

– Years– GACC(s) and/or States– Agencies

or

– Organizational Unit (PSA)


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Cheetah 3 Analyzer


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Cheetah 3 Analyzer

Predictive Service Area definition– A collection of organizational units


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Cheetah 3 AnalyzerHistoric Fire Occurrence

Graphs available

– Fire Occurrence Only– Fire Occurrence by Cause

(Human, Natural or Both)– Fire Acres by Cause

(Human, Natural or Both)– Fire Occurrence and Episodes– Yearly Episode Summary– Active Fires


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Cheetah 3 AnalyzerFire Occurrence Only Graph


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Cheetah 3 AnalyzerFire Occurrence by Cause Graph

(Human, Natural or Both)


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Cheetah 3 AnalyzerFire Acres by Cause Graph



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Slide-21

Episodes

Cheetah 3 Analyzer

– Of particular interest are the number and intensity of fire occurrence episodes


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Number of D-G Fires from Episodes versus Total Fire Occurrence


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Slide-23

Cheetah 3 AnalyzerFire Occurrence and Episodes Graph


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Cheetah 3 AnalyzerYearly Episode Summary Graph


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Cheetah 3 AnalyzerActive Fires Graph


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Slide-26

Cheetah 3 AnalyzerHistoric Fire Occurrence

Reports available

– Fire Occurrence by Cause (Human, Natural or Both)

– Fire Acres– Episodes– Active Fires


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Cheetah 3 AnalyzerFire Occurrence by Cause Report



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Cheetah 3 AnalyzerFire Acres Report


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Cheetah 3 AnalyzerEpisodes Report


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Cheetah 3 AnalyzerActive Fires Report


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Slide-31

Cheetah 3 Analyzer

The program has two distinct but related sides

– Historic fire occurrence analysis

and

– Firefighting resource requirements analysis


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Slide-32

Cheetah 3 AnalyzerFirefighting Resource Needs


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Cheetah 3 AnalyzerSupport

Tom Wordell is the first to contact Users’ Guide has been developed Program Summary has been developed

Help is developed in the programs Program support web site

– www.fireps.com/cheetah3/ Currently have a technical support agreement

that is funded for FY 2008


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Slide-37

slide-1 donald carlton fire program solutions cheetah 3: an overview

Documents

bothfire occurrence

analyzerfire occurrence

occurrence rates

control time military

help cheetah

cause human

program capabilities

analyzerthe program