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RAMSES SLIDEDECK Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities

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RAMSES SLIDEDECK

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities

With the global population projected to reach 8.1 billion in 2015 and 9.6 billion in 2050, the 21st century can be defined as the first urban century. This trend can be expected to continue, meaning that more than half of the worlds population will be living in cities in the near future. The environmental impacts of urban areas are therefore a growing concern.

A larger concentration of population, assets and activities in these areas -frequently achieved through rapid urbanization in previous decades- implies more risks derived from the potential impacts of climate change (EEA, 2012; IPCC, 2014). Furthermore, urban areas are the direct or indirect source for the largest share of environmental impacts. In particular, cities are held responsible for over 75% of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide (UN-Habitat, 2011; World Bank, 2010).

Understanding these trends is thus crucial to avert potential damage linked to climate change and to minimize the impact of cities themselves on the global environment. But cities are not simple objects to analyze. Urban areas are shaped by the complex relations amongst the different sectors that integrate in the coupled human-environment urban systems. These include the built environment, the infrastructures, the human, social and natural assets, the production systems, etc. (Liu et al., 2007; Turner, Matson, et al., 2003). Whereas these overlaps enable synergies between various elements, they also pose an enormous challenge in terms of adaptation planning (IPCC, 2014). From a climate risk management perspective (IPCC, 2012), the links and interactions among these components and between each of them and the hazardous climatic events that might trigger disasters shape the susceptibility of cities to harm and their capacity to resist and recover from such events (Cardona, 2005; Cutter et al., 2010).

In the global context of climate change, the urbanized areas will be more and more vulnerable to extreme weather conditions, which will increase the main climatic risks such as heat waves.

Source: RAMSES D3.1 (p.14); D4.3 (p.1)1

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesThe RAMSES SlidedeckThe RAMSES Slidedeck is meant to support cities (including municipal staff, policy makers and other stakeholders) to explain the importance of climate adaptation to different stakeholders by:

- Introducing the main topics tackled in the RAMSES Project

- Raising awareness on crucial policy-relevant aspects of climate adaptation

Available for downloading and consulting on the RAMSES website!

http://www.ramses-cities.eu/

In order to provide local municipal staff with a complete collection of resources to make the wide-reaching results of the RAMSES Project accessible and usable, a slidedeck summarizing the most policy-relevant project findings has been developed. This is meant to support cities (including municipal staff, policy makers and other stakeholders) to explain the importance of climate adaptation to different stakeholders. The slidedeck is available in .PPT format so that it can be downloaded and tailored to practitioners needs. For example, the slidedeck could be used during a workshop to introduce a topic on which a city would like to work practically by using the training package, or just to raise awareness on crucial aspects linked to urban climate adaptation. To improve usability, slides are accompanied by long notes further detailing and explaining their content and referencing it to the corresponding project deliverables so that these can be easily consulted in case additional information is needed.

The slidedeck can be consulted and downloaded from the RAMSES website at http://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/

Source: RAMSES D10.2 (p.87)

2

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesThe RAMSES Slidedeck IIThe RAMSES Slidedeck is divided by topic and can be used flexibly by different stakeholders including:

Municipal staff; Policy makers; Adaptation practitioners; Researchers; Etc.

The slides are complemented by longer descriptions of the topics available in the notes window. The original sources of the information are always referenced so that they can be easily consulted.

In order to provide local municipal staff with a complete collection of resources to make the wide-reaching results of the RAMSES Project accessible and usable, a slidedeck summarising the most policy-relevant project findings has been developed. This is meant to support cities (including municipal staff, policy makers and other stakeholders) to explain the importance of climate adaptation to different stakeholders. The slidedeck is available in .PPT format so that it can be downloaded and tailored to practitioners needs. For example, the slidedeck could be used during a workshop to introduce a topic on which a city would like to work practically by using the training package, or just to raise awareness on crucial aspects linked to urban climate adaptation. To improve usability, slides are accompanied by long notes further detailing and explaining their content and referencing it to the corresponding project deliverables so that these can be easily consulted in case additional information is needed.

The slidedeck can be consulted and downloaded from the RAMSES website at http://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/

Source: RAMSES D10.2 (p.87)

3

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesRAMSES Slidedeck III

SLIDEDECK INDEX:

Introduction, cities and climate change

Results and tools produced by the RAMSES Project

Understanding Risks in Cities

Adaptation Options

Health Adaptation to climate change

Estimating the health impactsof climate change (Health Assessment Tool)

In order to provide local municipal staff with a complete collection of resources to make the wide-reaching results of the RAMSES Project accessible and usable, a slidedeck summarizing the most policy-relevant project findings has been developed. This is meant to support cities (including municipal staff, policy makers and other stakeholders) to explain the importance of climate adaptation to different stakeholders. The slidedeck is available in .PPT format so that it can be downloaded and tailored to practitioners needs. For example, the slidedeck could be used during a workshop to introduce a topic on which a city would like to work practically by using the training package, or just to raise awareness on crucial aspects linked to urban climate adaptation. To improve usability, slides are accompanied by long notes further detailing and explaining their content and referencing it to the corresponding project deliverables so that these can be easily consulted in case additional information is needed.

The slidedeck can be consulted and downloaded from the RAMSES website at http://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/

Source: RAMSES D10.2 (p.87)

4

SlideDeckINTRODUCTION CITIES AND CLIMATE CHANGEReconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities

The 21st century can be defined as the first urban century, with global population projected to reach 8.1 billion 2015 and 9.6 billion in 2050. This trend can be expected to continue, and the environmental impact of urban areas is a growing concern. This means that more than half of the worlds population will live in cities in the near future.

A larger concentration of population, frequently achieved through rapid urbanization in previous decades, implies more risks derived from the potential impacts as climate change, as population, assets and economic activities concentrates on these areas (EEA, 2012; IPCC, 2014). Furthermore, urban areas are the direct or indirect cause of the largest share of the environmental impacts. In particular, cities are held responsible for over 75% of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide (UN-Habitat, 2011; World Bank, 2010).

Understanding these trends is thus crucial to avert potential damages linked to climate change and to minimize the impact of cities themselves on the global environment. But cities are not simple objects to analyze. Urban areas are shaped by the complex relations held among different sectors that integrate the coupled human-environment urban systems. These include the built environment, the infrastructures, the human, social and natural assets, the production systems, etc. (Liu et al., 2007; Turner, Matson, et al., 2003). Whereas these overlaps enable synergies between various elements, they also pose an enormous challenge in terms of adaptation planning (IPCC, 2014). From a climate risk management perspective (IPCC, 2012), the links and interactions among these components and between each of them and the hazardous climatic events that might trigger disasters shape the susceptibility of cities to harm and their capacity to resist and recover from such events (Cardona, 2005; Cutter et al., 2010).

In the global context of climate change, the urbanized areas will be more and more vulnerable to extreme weather conditions, which will increase the main climatic risks such as heat waves.

Source: RAMSES D3.1 (p.14); D4.3 (p.1)5

Climate Change Impacts in Europe

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities

The Arctic: - Temperature rise much greater than the global average- Decrease in Arctic sea ice coverage- Decline in Greenland ice sheet- Decreased permafrost areas- Increased risk of biodiversity loss- Intensified shipping and exploitation of oil and gas resourcesCoastal Zones and Regional Seas:- Sea-level rise- Increase in sea surface temperatures- Increase in ocean acidity- Northward migration of fish and plankton species- Changes in phytoplankton communities- Increasing risk for fish stocksNorth-Western Europe:- Increase in winter precipitation and river flow- Increase in river flow- Northward migration of species- Decreased energy demand for heating- Increased risk of river and coastal floodingMediterranean Region:- Temperature rise is greater than the European average- Decreased annual precipitation- Decreased annual river flow- Increased risk of biodiversity loss- Increased risk of desertification- Increased water demand for agriculture- Decreased crop yield- Increased risk of forest fires- Increased mortality from heat waves- Expansion of habitats for southern disease vectors- Decreased hydropower potential- Decreased summer tourism and potentialincrease in other seasonsNorthern Europe:- Temperature rise much greater than the global average- Decrease in snow, lake and river ice cover- Increased river flows- Northward movement of species- Increased crop yields- Decreased energy demand for heating- Increased hydropower potential- Increased risk of damage from winter storms- Increased summer tourismMountain Areas:- Temperature rise greater than the European average- Decrease in glacier extent and volume- Decrease in mountain permafrost areas- Upward shift of plant and animal species- High risk of species extinction in Alpine regions- Increased risk of soil erosion- Decrease in ski tourismCentral and Eastern Europe:- Increased warm temperature extremes- Decreased summer precipitation- Increased water temperature- Increased risk of forest fires- Decrease in the economic value of forestsSource: EEA, 2015e.

Global climate change affects regional climate patterns, leading to:

- Increased frequency of hotter days - More episodes of extreme rainfall or drought -> negative impacts on assets, livelihood and health.

Urban settings influence the relationship between climate and health. Although the exact mechanism by which these local factors influence this relationship is still poorly understood by the scientific community, some characteristics have been identified as follows:

Higher population density increases the portion of the population at risk from health impacts from extreme weather A higher degree of soil sealing (e.g. through paved surfaces) may increase the probability of flooding - Reduced vegetation, heat-conserving urban materials, urban geometry and abundant heat sources all contribute to the urban heat island effect

Source: RAMSES D6.2, p.7; Picture: EEA - Urban Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe 2016 6

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesUrban Agglomeration ProjectionsClimate change is leading to changes in weather patterns and to an apparent increase in extreme weather events. Research conducted by RAMSES has shown:

A rise in the number, frequency and intensity of heat waves

An increase in the Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon

Urban areas experience twice as many heat wave days as their rural surroundings

Towards the end of the century, the number of heat wave days is expected to increase by a factor of nearly ten (one month or more per year)

Increased mortality rates during heat waves (e.g 140% of heat-related excess mortality during the period from 1 to 19 August 2003).

Towards the end of the century, when cosidering the effect of climate change alone, PM10 concentrations are expected to rise by approximately 0.3 ug/m3 during the summer and to decrease by 1.1 ug/m3 during the winter.

During heat waves events, mortality rates are higher in the city, especially in the most densely built-up districts. During the summer heat wave of 2003, areas exhibiting the highest remotely-sensed night-time infrared surface temperature suffered the highest excess mortality. Whereas this can at least be partially attributed to the vulnerability of the urban population, increased mortality has also been associated with the urban temperature increment itself.Cities experience enhanced heat stress because of the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon. Moreover, an experiment conducted by RAMSES involving UHI simulations for 102 cities, showed that the larger cities in Eastern and Central Europe are particularly at risk. This is exacerbated by the fact that the background (regional) temperatures in these regions are expected to undergo drastic changes.

Based on the results for the present period, it was found that, overall, and consistently within the city sample considered, urban areas experience twice as many heat wave days than their rural surroundings. This is problematic, as in most countries, so-called heat health action plans are developed using rural temperature forecasts only. Consequently, the (often vulnerable) urban populations undergo several heat wave days per year with no action taken.

Towards the end of the century, the number of heat wave days is expected to increase by a factor of nearly ten. This appears to be the case in both urban and rural areas but, given the higher number of urban heat wave days to start with, this means that many cities will be facing one month or more of heat-wave conditions each year. The expected ten-fold increase in the number of urban heat wave days towards the end of the century, is projected to reach one month per year (not as single event, but rather, all days taken together will add up to a month).

It was found that during the summer towards the end of the century climate change is expected to increase in PM10 concentrations by 0.3 g/m-3 owing to increased temperature and humidity, and decreasing wind speed values. Conversely, the expected change in winter is a decrease by a value of 1.1 g/m-3, mainly caused by enhanced precipitation. Note that for both winter and summer, the ensemble variance is larger than the change of the means. Even though the analysis was done for the sole city of Bilbao, the method used here is fairly generic and could be transferred to other urban areas which have access to the required input data (i.e. pollutant concentrations, and concurrent meteorological data).

Source: RAMSES D4.3 (p.1); D 4.2 (p.11, p.12, p.84) 7

Local Level as a Driver

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesGlobal phenomenonInfluenced by urban landscapeAffecting regional climate patterns

Frequency of hotter days and extreme rainfall or drought episodesGeography, environmental and social determinants, population density, degree of soil sealing, heat conserving urban materials, urban geometry and abundant heat sourcesIcons made by Eucalyp, Freepik and Zlatko Najdenovski from www.flaticon.com

While climate change is a global phenomenon, its consequences and health impacts are observed and best understood locally.

Global climate change affects regional climate patterns:

- Increased frequency of hotter days- More episodes of extreme rainfall or drought -> impacts on assets, livelihoods and health.

Urban settings influence the relationship between climate and health. Although the way local factors influence this relationship is still poorly understood by the scientific community, some characteristics have been defined:

- Higher population density increases the population at risk from negative health impacts from extreme weather

- A higher degree of soil sealing (e.g. through paved surfaces) may increase the probability of flooding

- Reduced vegetation, heat-conserving urban materials, urban geometry and abundant heat sources all contribute to the urban heat island effect

On the other hand, the concentration of resources and human capital may contribute to health protection and greater resilience. The overall effect of the urban landscape and characteristics on the relationship between climate and health is not fully clear.

Source: RAMSES D6.2 (p.7)

8

Due to the varying

severity and nature of climate impacts between regions

urban landscapes

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesLocal Level as a Driver

Icons made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com

Due to the varying severity and nature of climate impacts between regions in Europe, most adaptation initiatives will need to be taken at the regional or local levels.

- Health adaptation can be significantly fostered through an adequate engagement of local authorities.

- Regardless of the geographical jurisdiction of the institutions driving adaptation, vulnerability reduction and adaptation translate into a portfolio of actions implemented locally.

- Vulnerability and adaptive capacity are context specific: Health status and vulnerability of populations to climate impacts and climate change combine into specific risk profiles that cannot be easily extrapolated.

Even when adaptation priorities and actions are clear, challenges and risks posed by climate change will require action at multiple levels:

- International, national, sub-national and local governments

- the active engagement of multiple sectors and stakeholders.

Source: RAMSES D6.2 (p.8)9

SlideDeckRESULTS AND TOOLS PRODUCED BY THE RAMSES PROJECTReconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities

10

All available on the project website!

http://www.ramses-cities.eu/

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesRAMSES Project Outcomes

RAMSES Outcomes valuable collection of reports and resources:

Modeling climate projections and scenarios

Resilient architecture and infrastructure

Cost evaluation and benefits

Health costs evaluation

High-level vulnerability assessments

Vulnerability analyses in London, Antwerp and Bilbao (high spatial resolution)

Analysis of political frameworks and decision-making tools

The RAMSES Project has produced an immense and highly valuable collection of reports and resources on the topic of climate change adaptation and resilience in cities. The Project Consortium has developed cutting-edge research on some of the most relevant topics for climate adaptation in cities. These include:- Modeling climate projections and scenarios to understand future climate impacts and to illustrate the effects of specific adaptation measures for cities;

- Understanding how to make architecture and infrastructure more resilient to climate change and how to assess the effects of improved architectural design on cities;

- Evaluating the costs of climate change and the benefits of different adaptation measures;

- Understanding the costs that climate change has on health and how different adaptation measures can reduce climate impacts on public health;

- Conducting high-level vulnerability assessments in order to understand the climatic trends in European macro-regions and, consequently, identify the main risks that cities in these regions are exposed to;

- Conducting detailed vulnerability analyses in the cities of London, Antwerp and Bilbao at a high spatial resolution to draw lessons from these cities experiences;

Understanding existing political frameworks and decision-making tools that support adaptation, and drawing lessons from those.

Source: RAMSES D10.2 (p.8)

11

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesRAMSES Toolbox and Training

Main results of the RAMSES project:

HANDBOOK summarizes and presents the RAMSES findings to municipal staff and policy makersexplains how to approach the adaptation process

TRAINING PACKAGE proposes concrete activities to operationalize the RAMSES findings into a support mechanism for local decision-makingexplains how to approach the adaptation process

SLIDEDECKprovides local municipal staff with a complete collection of resources to make the wide-reaching results of the project accesible and usable

AUDIO-VISUAL GUIDANCE (www.on-urban-resilience.eu)offers additional information on the different relevant sectors for adaptation planning by experts interviewed by the RAMSES Consortium on several occasions.

The Training Package, together with the slidedeck on the main results of the RAMSES project, completes the so-calledTool box and Training for Policy-Making. While the Handbook summarizes and presents the RAMSES findings to municipal staff and policy-makers, explaining how to approach the adaptation process, the training package proposes concrete activities to operationalise the RAMSES findings into a support mechanism for local decision-making.

The Transition Handbook embeds the key RAMSES findings in a process management cycle, using widely known methodology such as the Urban Adaptation Support Tool, which is the official support tool of the Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy. It also synthesises the project results in a practical step-by-step fashion, presenting resources that cities can use to strengthen their knowledge on climate adaptation planning.

The Training Package complements the Transition Handbook by taking stock of existing toolkits to support adaptation management in cities and proposes worksheets and exercises that cities can use to progress in their adaptation endeavours. The worksheets are cross-referenced in the Transition Handbook so as to complement the information contained in it and to offer cities a clear path towards becoming more climate adaptive.

Videos from the RAMSES audio-visual guidance tool www.on-urban-resilience.eu are cross-referenced in the handbook and in the training package. They offer additional information on the different relevant sectors for adaptation planning by experts interviewed by the RAMSES Consortium on several occasions.

Source: RAMSES D10.2 (p.8, p.87)

12

Serene Hanania (SH) - INSERT LINKS WHERE RELEVANT

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesRAMSES Handbook and Training Package Frames the adaptation process through the Urban Adaptation Support Tool (UAST) the official methodology used by the Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy initiative which provides a step-by-step guidance through an adaptation planning and implementation cycle.

13

SlideDeckUNDERSTANDING RISKS IN CITIESReconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities

The 21st century can be defined as the first urban century, with global population projected to reach 8.1 billion 2015 and 9.6 billion in 2050. This trend can be expected to continue, and the environmental impact of urban areas is a growing concern. This means that more than half of the worlds population will live in cities in the near future.

A larger concentration of population, frequently achieved through rapid urbanization in previous decades, implies more risks derived from the potential impacts as climate change, as population, assets and economic activities concentrates on these areas (EEA, 2012; IPCC, 2014). Furthermore, urban areas are the direct or indirect cause of the largest share of the environmental impacts. In particular, cities are held responsible for over 75% of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide (UN-Habitat, 2011; World Bank, 2010).

Understanding these trends is thus crucial to avert potential damages linked to climate change and to minimize the impact of cities themselves on the global environment. But cities are not simple objects to analyze. Urban areas are shaped by the complex relations held among different sectors that integrate the coupled human-environment urban systems. These include the built environment, the infrastructures, the human, social and natural assets, the production systems, etc. (Liu et al., 2007; Turner, Matson, et al., 2003). Whereas these overlaps enable synergies between various elements, they also pose an enormous challenge in terms of adaptation planning (IPCC, 2014). From a climate risk management perspective (IPCC, 2012), the links and interactions among these components and between each of them and the hazardous climatic events that might trigger disasters shape the susceptibility of cities to harm and their capacity to resist and recover from such events (Cardona, 2005; Cutter et al., 2010).

In the global context of climate change, the urbanized areas will be more and more vulnerable to extreme weather conditions, which will increase the main climatic risks such as heat waves.

Source: RAMSES D3.1 (p.14); D4.3 (p.1)14

Is not just a function of hazardalso of socio-economic vulnerabilities

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesCities on Risk

Source: IPCC WGII-AR5 (2014)

Our analysis follows the conceptual framework proposed by the IPCC on the WGII AR5 (IPCC, 2014). As illustrated by the figure, the IPCC framework clearly identifies the three core components of climate change driven risk, namely hazard, exposure and vulnerability: risk results from the interaction of vulnerability, exposure, and hazard (IPCC, 2014, glossary).

Under this framework exposure remains a core component of risk, but it has been totally separated from the concept of vulnerability. This latter term is defined in the WGII AR5 as the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. It is then mentioned that vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts and elements including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt

Some cities have relatively low hazard scores but high exposure and/or vulnerability, whilst other cities have relatively high hazard and low exposure and/or vulnerability.

RAMSES D10.2:

- EXAMPLE BOX 1 - EXAMPLE BOX 4

Source: RAMSES D3.1 (p.12, p.13); D10.2 (p.41)15

In this phase of the process the idea is addressing the following questions:

How is climate change going to affect my city?

Which areas and sectors of activity would potentially be more affected?

Which are more vulnerable?

To what extent is the city capable to cope with it and react?

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesRisk Analysis Methodology2nd Step3rd Step1st Step

The risk analysis methodology aims to develop a comprehensive picture of current and future climate change risks in an urban area as well as further stress factors to be expected.

It is also important to notice that this analyses will also help identify not only risks but also opportunities arising from climate change.

This analysis is based on the reasoning that adaptation cannot be planned solely on the basis of climate projections; information on local risk and vulnerabilities is also needed to determine how the climate interacts with socio-economic issues.

In this phase of the process the idea is addressing the following questions:

- How is climate change going to affect my city?- Which areas and sectors of activity would potentially be most affected?- Which of them are most vulnerable?To what extent is the city capable to cope with it and react?

Source: RAMSES D10.2 (p.23)

16

STEP I - Hazard and exposure

Identification of the key hazards that our city must face and the degree of its exposure to those hazards.

Exposure refers to the presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, environmental services, resources, infrastructure, or economic assets, social, or cultural sites that could be affected or adversely impacted by an event.

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesRisk Analysis Methodology2nd Step3rd Step1st Step

(p.24) This first step is devoted to the identification of the key hazards that our city must face and the degree of its exposure to those hazards.

The existence of a threat does not necessarily mean being exposed, and therefore being affected. The exposure refers to the presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, environmental services, resources, infrastructure, or economic assets, social, or cultural sites that could be affected or adversely impacted by an event.

Source: RAMSES 10.2 (p.24)

17

STEP I - Hazard and exposure

The following activities will be needed: Climate scenarios and projections at the local level Impacts modelling and local studies (hazard analysis) Threshold definition Identify/localise the receptor of the impact (exposure)

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesRisk Analysis Methodology2nd Step3rd Step1st Step

The following activities will be needed:

Climate scenarios and projections at the local level Impacts modelling and local studies (hazard analysis) Threshold definition Identify/localise the receptor of the impact (exposure)

Source: RAMSES 10.2 (p.24)

18

STEP II - Vulnerability assessment

Vulnerability refers to the propensity or predisposition of a given system to be affected by a threat. The vulnerability of a territory depends on the sensitivity or susceptibility to damage and the ability of such territory to cope and adapt.

Sensitivity or susceptibility is the degree in which a system or specie is affected in a positive or negative way by the variability of the climate variables.

Adaptive capacity makes reference to the capacity of socio-ecological systems, institutions, human beings and whatever other organism to adapt to the potential damages of climate change, seize opportunities or respond to its consequences.

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesRisk Analysis MethodologyVulnerability = f (sensitivity, adaptive capacity)2nd Step3rd Step1st Step

To understand this step, firstly it is important to clarify one of the key concepts in climate change adaptation; the vulnerability concept. It refers to the propensity or predisposition of a given system to be affected by a threat. The vulnerability of a territory depends on the sensitivity or susceptibility to damage and the ability of such territory to cope and adapt.

The sensitivity or susceptibility is the degree in which a system or species is affected in a positive or negative way by the variability of the climate variables.

The adaptive capacity makes reference to the capacity of socio-ecological systems, institutions, human beings and whatever other organism to adapt to the potential damages of climate change, seize opportunities or respond to its consequences.

Vulnerability assessment is a complex process that could be approach from many different perspectives and methodologies. In this handbook we are refereeing to IPCC 2014.

Therefore, the characterization of vulnerability is crucial in order to understand how the socio-ecological system at city level could be affected by certain hazards, and so establish and deploy the adequate mechanisms and effective policies to respond and adapt. This characterization is highly spatially explicit and depends on the physical, biological, ecological, economic and social features of a certain territory, so the role of local governments in the identification and assessment of climate risks is crucial (also known as hotspot detection).

Source: RAMSES D10.2 (p.37)19

STEP II - Vulnerability assessment

The following activities will be needed:

Definition of the data model and selection indicators for the evaluation of sensitivity and adaptive capacity Aggregation of indicators and results of vulnerability assessment per every threat. (optional) Formulation of vulnerability to a threat or hotspot detection

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesRisk Analysis Methodology2nd Step3rd Step1st Step

The following activities will be needed:

Definition of the data model and selection indicators for the evaluation of sensitivity and adaptive capacity

Aggregation of indicators and results of vulnerability assessment per every threat. (optional)

Formulation of vulnerability to a threat or hotspot detection

Source: RAMSES D10.2 (p.378

20

STEP III - Risk definition

Recently and according to the latest IPCC 2014 definition, risk is expressed as the function of hazard, vulnerability and exposure.

Traditionally in risk assessment, the consequences have been valued according to economic estimates of damages and losses by an extreme event. However, the non-monetary evaluation of consequences may be considered.

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesRisk Analysis MethodologyRisk = f (hazard, exposure, vulnerability)2nd Step3rd Step1st Step

Icon made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com

The last step in this phase is identifying the risk and assessing the likelihood of being affected by a specific climate hazard. Traditionally, risk assessment is undertaken by quantifying the probability of climate hazards occurring and their consequences. Usually expressed as

Risk = probability x consequences

That same framework remains valid to incorporate the concepts presented earlier in the sequence analysis, since the probability of occurrence is derived on the one hand from the analysis of climate scenarios and the impact modeling, and on the other from the analysis exposure and vulnerability.

Risk = probability (threat) x consequence f (exposure, vulnerability)

Therefore, recently and according to the latest IPCC 2014 definition, risk is expressed as the function of threat, vulnerability and exposure. The hazard, exposure and vulnerability indicators derived for each city under each climatic threat have been combined to inform on the relative level of risk faced by each city under a given climatic hazard.

Risk = f (hazard, exposure, vulnerability)

Traditionally in risk assessment, the consequences have been valued according to economic estimates of damages and losses by an extreme event. However, the non-monetary evaluation of consequences may be considered in line with the most recent IPCC report focussed on adaptation.

It is important to consider the possibility of conducting risk assessments in a qualitative way, which can be very useful particularly when the information resulting from the previous steps may be incomplete or insufficient

Source: RAMSES D10.2 (p.41); D3.1 (p.68)

21

STEP III - Risk definition

The following activities are needed: Description of the components of risk and generating information

Construction of the model and risk analysis

Risk estimation

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesRisk Analysis Methodology

2nd Step3rd Step1st Step

The high level vulnerability and risk analysis approach uses EU and global datasets to enable a universally-comparable climate change risk analysis of cities.

An overview of the approach and some of the datasets that will be used are shown the figure. Risk indices are calculated as a function of the climate change-driven hazards, exposure and vulnerability of an urban area.

The following activities are needed:

Description of the components of risk and generating information. The first task in the risk assessment is the generation of information on the components of the potential risks and description. It involves identifying threats, potentially impacted areas and their possible causes and consequences. All this information we obtain from the above-described phases.

Construction of the model and risk analysis. There are different approaches to risk analysis, which can even be combined. Independently of the approach or methodology adopted (quantitative and / or qualitative), it is important to consider the uncertainty associated with the quality of data used and inherent to the methods themselves. Considering the level of confidence in our risk analysis, and incorporating it as additional attribute of our analysis could be one way to make explicit the management of uncertainty.

Risk estimation. In order to provide a systematic way to summarize, compare and prioritize risks, the results of a risk analysis are often classified according to an ordinal scale for example, a value from 1- 5, low, medium, high. Having analyzed the risks and estimated its risk importance profile, the next step is to assess the need for action, where and how urgently. This assessment will probably not be taken solely on the basis of risk assessment, it is likely to depend on how the risks relate to other priorities within an organization, its legal and regulatory requirements, and resources available for action.

Source: RAMSES D10.2 (p.41); D3.1 (p.13)

22

The climate risk evaluation methodology can be applied in all EU cities to identify priorities for national and EU adaptation investments combining hazard, exposure and vulnerability information in order to:

Identification of risk priorities. A scoring methodology can be used to assess the relative priorities for cities in terms of most significant hazards, or whether to focus on measures to manage a hazard or increase vulnerability.

Integration of exposure, vulnerability and hazard datasets to evaluate risks;

Identification of sets of measures

This methodology is used to identify risk and combined risks for e.g. heat-waves, droughts and floods (fluvial, coastal or pluvial)

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesRisk Analysis Methodology

The information, together with value estimates of the exposed assets, allows the quantification of the expected losses linked to specific climate change hazards. Potential losses are frequently communicated as damage or vulnerability functions.

Still, on the European continental scale risk analysis is increasingly possible as a result of increased availability of European and global datasets and computing power. However, the quality and detail of a vulnerability and risk analysis is dependent on the availability and quality of data to support the analysis.

The aim of the risk analysis is to develop a climate risk evaluation methodology that can be applied to all EU cities to identify priorities for national and EU adaptation investments. This is done by combining hazard, exposure and vulnerability information in a coherent, flexible, stable, scalable, transparent and integrated risk analysis.

- Heatwaves- Flooding (pluvial, fluvial and coastal)- Drought

Source: RAMSES D3.1 (p.10, p.11, p.68, p.69, p.72)23

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesReferences

RAMSES Project D1.3: Methods inventory for infrastructure assessmenthttp://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/

RAMSES Project D3.1: High level quantified assessment of key vulnerabilities and priority risks for urban areas int he EUhttp://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/

RAMSES Project D4.2: Agglomeration-scale urban climate and air quality projectionshttp://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/

RAMSES Project D4.3: Urban adaptation effects on urban climatehttp://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/

RAMSES Project D6.2: Assessment tool to estimate the economic costs of health impacts of climate changehttp://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/

EEA- Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Report 2014http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/urban-adaptation-to-climate-change

EEA Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Report 2016http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/urban-adaptation-2016

WHO Europe- Protecting Health in Europe from climate changehttp://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/environment-and-health/Climate-change/publications/pre-2009/protecting-health-in-europe-from-climate-change

WHO Europe- Heat-Health Action Plans Guidancehttp://www.euro.who.int/en/publications/abstracts/heathealth-action-plans

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SlideDeckADAPTATION OPTIONSReconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities

This phase aims to identify a wide range of adaptation options to address previously identified risks and reduce negative impacts to an acceptable level, or to take advantage of any positive opportunities that arise from climate change.

The aim at this stage is to identify alternatives and possibilities to respond to challenges and opportunities. Amongst these, the ones best suited for the nature of the threats that affect us and our territorial and institutional context will be chosen.

This section facilitates an exploration of potential adaptation options and helps in identifying the relevant actions and their potential co-benefits.

Once the adaptation options have been identified, the next steps are to assess and prioritize the compilation of options based on detailed descriptions and criteria.

Based on the outcomes of the previous phase (Risk Analysis) the aim here is to assess and prioritize the most efficient and appropriate measures to be implemented for climate change adaptation in the city. The selection of preferred adaptation options should be done in close collaboration with all the actors involved in the adaptation process.

Source: RAMSES D10.2 (p.45, p.52)

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Adaptation options can be divided into three main categories:

Grey infrastructure corresponds to engineered physical interventions to make the city more resilient to extreme events (e.g., dykes, water tanks, etc.),

Green and blue infrastructure makes the city more resilient and achieves sustainability through the maintenance, restoration and insertion of nature into urban spaces (e.g., greenways, open spaces, greenbelts, urban green spaces, cultural landscapes etc.), thereby improving wellbeing and the environmental conditions of urban areas,

Soft measures are those that facilitate the implementation of grey and green measures and include the design and application of policy procedures, such as: land-use controls, information dissemination, economic incentives to reduce vulnerability, and measures that try to avoid mal-adaptation. These measures can be perceived as success factors for an effective implementation of an adaptation plan.

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesAdaptation Options

Adaptation measures are positive actions considered for implementation. Adaptation action comprises not only of protection measures against the negative impacts of climate change, but also of: creating resilience, reducing vulnerability to both current and future variations in climate, and taking advantage of the consequences of climatic events.

There are various types of adaptation action, including anticipatory, autonomous and planned adaptation. These can be clustered into four main types as follows:

'Green' adaptation measures make use of nature. Examples include introducing new crop and tree varieties, allowing room for rivers to flood naturally onto floodplains, and restoring wetlands. Green infrastructure is a 'strategically planned network of natural and semi-natural areas with other environmental features designed and managed to deliver a wide range of ecosystem services' (EC, 2013). Green and blue areas are green urban areas, sports and leisure facilities, agricultural surfaces and forests in urban areas, semi-natural areas and wetlands, and water bodies and low density areas with private gardens (EEA, 2012b). Green roofs, facades and trees in streets are also considered a part of urban green,

'Grey' adaptation measures use artificial infrastructure to reduce vulnerability to climate change and create resilience. Examples include building dykes and restoring beaches to prevent coastal erosion,

'Soft' adaptation measures are managerial, legal and policy approaches that alter human behavior and governance routines favorably. Examples include early warning systems and insurance against damage from natural disasters,

'Combined' actions use all the three above-mentioned types. The best results often come from combining actions. For example, a combination of 'green' and 'grey' actions, or 'grey' and 'soft' actions, can address flood risks in a particular area (EEA, 2013; EEA, 2014).

The European Commission's definition emphasizes the ecosystem services provided, and the purposeful land designation and management made with the aim of delivering a range of environmental benefits including maintaining and improving ecological functions. 'Smart' conservation addresses impacts of urban sprawl and fragmentation, builds connectivity in ecological networks and promotes green spaces in the urban environment (including through adaptation and retrofitting) (EEA, 2015a).

Source: EEA 2014 Report- Urban adaptation to Climate Change in Europe (p.119, p.121)26

1. Coping adaptation mostly means responding to the damage arising from a disaster and recovering afterwards. Purely coping approaches bring short-term benefits that decrease to zero with each new disaster. They therefore imply high costs over time.

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesAdaptation Options

Adaptation measures should be not only considered in light of their response potential vis--vis determined climate threats here and now. When thinking about adaptation, a reflection should be made on the potential of different measures to generate long-term positive development for a city as a whole. According to this line of thought, three types of adaptation approaches can be identified (EEA, 2016).

Source: RAMSES D10.2 (p. 140)27

2. Incremental adaptation builds on existing adaptation measures and known solutions by improving them, bit by bit, and increasing their capacity to avoid damage under future levels of risk. Incremental approaches work effectively up to certain risk levels. Benefits level off over time and higher risk levels will require additional coping measures.

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesAdaptation Options

Incremental adaptation is less radical. It is the extension of actions that are normally undertaken to reduce losses or enhance benefits from climate variability and extreme events. This can include: increasing existing flood defenses; modifying extreme weather warning systems; augmenting the water supply by increasing the size or number of reservoirs or decreasing the demand; and ecosystem and forest management measures. Incremental adaptation measures are what people have already tried and are familiar with.

Source: EEA 2014 Report- Urban adaptation to Climate Change in Europe (p.24)

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3. Transformative adaptation follows a broader and more systematic approach by addressing the root causes of vulnerability to climate change. These are often the result of human actions such as settling in risk-prone areas, inadequate building design or other behaviors that aggravate the impact of climate change (EEA, 2016). Transformative approaches need some time and efforts at the beginning, but then benefits increase and are stable. Very little coping is needed to buffer extremely high risk levels.

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesAdaptation Options

Transformative adaptation measures are ways of using behavior and technology to change the biophysical, social or economic components of a system fundamentally, but not necessarily irreversibly. This includes planned and responsive measures using a different approach from the standard; and includes innovation or shifting certain activities to new locations. Transformational adaptation looks at the long term and takes a systemic approach to planning and implementation. It can result from single initiatives or a series of rapid incremental changes in a particular direction. Transformational adaptation may be positive, in terms of gains, or negative, in terms of losses or reaching the limits of adaptation.

Overview of the three approaches:

Coping with extreme events and incrementally improving existing adaptation measures can offer effective short and medium-term solutions. Coping and incremental adaptation are two approaches to dealing with climate change impacts. Coping mostly means responding to the damage arising from a disaster and recovering afterwards. Incremental adaptation builds on existing adaptation measures and known solutions by improving them bit by bit, and increasing their capacity to avoid any damage under future levels of risk. Both approaches aim to maintain or regain the city's current level of service. Both are also based on proven knowledge gained over decades, for example in disaster risk management. Incremental adaptation often focuses on individual measures as appropriate and as opportunities arise. Measures are relatively quick to put in place. They can often deal sufficiently and very effectively with many short- and medium-term challenges.

Certain long-term effects of climate change, however, may be more than these approaches can cope with. In such a case, these measures can no longer protect against much larger impacts. Combining these solutions with transformative adaptation offers long-term solutions that address the systemic character of climate change and enable cities to embrace change. Transformative adaptation follows a broader and more systemic approach. It addresses the root causes of vulnerability. In fact, vulnerability to climate change is often a result of human actions, such as settling in risk-prone areas, inadequate building design or other behaviors that aggravate the impact of climate change.

The design of the city, its buildings and its infrastructure are supposed to last for decades or even centuries. Transformative adaptation can avoid letting these elements lock the city in ways that will not work adequately in future climatic conditions and are hard to change. The transformative approach takes a systemic perspective. It seeks to integrate adaptation with other aspects of urban development and turns the challenge into an opportunity, capitalizing on many additional, nonclimatic benefits. It departs from the state of the art of current city functioning and organizes it differently, with the opportunity to function better and improve the quality of life.

Source: EEA 2014 Report- Urban adaptation to Climate Change in Europe (p.7, p.24)

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Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesUrban Planning Strategies

Urban planning as a crucial element for improving urban space:

Quality

Livability

Vitality

Attractiveness

EffectivenessIcon made by Zlatko Najdenovski from www.flaticon.com

Urban planning strategies are increasingly taking into account the presence of vegetation within the urban environment as a crucial element for improving the quality of urban spaces. In fact, urban processes can create local climate conditions that are divergent from the average and that can directly influence the populations living in those areas. Architects, urban planners, landscapers, politicians, developers and engineering firms should be aware that the quality, livability and vitality of urban spaces and urban climate can be strongly modified in line with their political and design decisions.

Variations of sun and shade spaces, and changes in wind speed, air temperature, relative humidity and other characteristics of the urban environment inevitably affect citizens thermal comfort given their direct exposure to these factors.

It is becoming common practice to inform urban planners and decision-makers about the attractiveness and effectiveness of new urban spaces by using modeling and simulation tools. This works ideally as supporting information during the early design phases in order to develop interventions towards more sustainable and livable open spaces for the public.

Source: RAMSES D4.3 (p. 45)

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Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesUrban Planning Measures

Parks

Tree-Lined Streets

Green Facades and Green Roofs

Icons made by Zlatko Najdenovski and Freepik from www.flaticon.com

ParksOne large park is slightly more efficient than the presence of several small parks with the same equivalent surface area. A 25% increase in sealing area induces a temperature increase of 0.82C, whereas an extra 15% of greening corresponds to a temperature decrease of 0.5C.

Parks lead to a reduction in the effect of the UHI during the day, while keeping it constantly lower than in the nearby urban areas during the night. They also help to reduce the number of UHI events, for example, the number of nights that exceeded the limit of nocturnal minimum temperature for a heat wave in Belgium were reduced by more than half in the urban areas.Tree-lined streets Integration of trees or groups of trees into the urban fabric as well as the presence of tree-lined streets in urban canyons, have a significant cooling effect in terms of reducing the heat island effect.

On a typical warm day, the highest impact is made by the presence of tree-lined streets, which cool the temperature by up to 1.5C.

The trees reduce the PMV values due to their shadows. However, this benefit remains localized in the area where they are. Therefore, urban furniture such as benches should be placed in suitable positions in order to exploit the benefits of the trees as much as possible. In Bilbao, the tree-lined streets provide a cooling effect within the urban canyon both in terms of PET reductions and local spatial extent. The strongest reductions of 10C in air temperature were found inside and specifically under the tree crowns.

Tree-lined streets are preferable to green roofs because their overall cooling effect is much greater due to their larger vegetation volume and foliage density. Green facades and green roofs Green facades and green roofs were found to have a benefit of about 0.5C on local air temperature. The authors noted that the effects were only felt in the direct neighborhood of the additional green space, so if one wants to achieve a city-wide temperature reduction, a large amount of vegetation is required. Also, vegetation-based measures are only effective when sufficient water is available, which may require irrigation during heat waves.The effect of the green roofs on PET in the street canyon was also noticeable but relatively small compared to the presence of grass and trees.

Source: RAMSES D4.3 (p.2-4, p. 45-48)

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Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesUrban Planning Measures Orientation and Aspect Ratio (H/W)

Finishing Materials

CitizensBehavior

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It is also evident that urban parameters such as orientation and aspect ratio (H/W) of the urban canyons have a considerable influence on thermal comfort at the pedestrian level. The results also demonstrated that the aspect ratio and the presence of vegetation consistently influence the wind speed values at the pedestrian level and, consequently, the thermal benefits in all urban areas. In this sense, it has to be underlined that the presence of trees decreases the wind speed in compact mid-rise and open-set high-rise urban areas, while in narrow urban canyons and compact low-rise urban areas the wind speed remains practically constant despite the presence of trees. Aspect ratio and orientation were found to have a considerable influence on street thermal comfort in the urban environment and, consequently, on peoples thermal sensation. In all urban areas, for NE-SW orientation the solar radiation has the highest impact on thermal discomfort at pedestrian level.

Citizens behavior Modified energy demand, thermal stress (especially on pedestrians), increased air pollution formation rates and temperature on the facades, and loss of soil moisture.The cooling effect created by the trees shade during the summertime can create a huge reduction in terms of cooling demands by buildings, as well as in reducing CO2 emissions and increasing thermal comfort.

Another relevant recommendation relates to the thermal effect created by the installation of different finishing materials on the ground. For example, in Bilbao, the increased intervention to convert streets into pedestrian promenades by replacing the asphalt with decorative red bricks stones increases the values of PET level at the ground level.

Source: RAMSES D4.3 (p.2-4, p. 45-48)

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Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesPlanning and ImplementationSTAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT AND KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT

Phase description and key objectives:It is important to view adaptation in a systemic perspective, which means that it does not conclude with a set of actions or measures. It is necessary to consistently integrate adaptation as part of the national/regional adaptation strategy plans taking into account existing policies and instruments.Therefore, this phase has the objective to define and implement a robust action plan integrated within other municipal policies.During this first step, it is necessary to define the strategic objectives and the approach to be followed, that is, definition of the nature and scope of the Adaptation Plan, whether it has to be developed autonomously; or can incorporate a large number of municipal policies; or be developed within the framework of another policy such as urban planning. The goal of this step is to define a specific/recommended adaptation pathway.The following actions will be needed:

Seek agreements with stakeholders: To ensure implementation of the strategic framework on adaptation, close collaboration and agreements will be needed with all affected stakeholders during the whole phase. So this action aims to develop a map of key stakeholders assigning roles and responsibilities. Identify and make use of entry points for adaptation: Adaptation should not be performed in isolation from existing policies, management structures or processes. Thus, to allow synergies, instruments in place with relevance to adaptation should be reviewed and the key elements selected to cope with strategic objectives. Group and sequence the previous adaptation options over time: Each of the previously identified measures (adaptation options identified in Phase III) need to be grouped depending on the objectives (creating possible adaptation packages or pathways) and sequenced over time (e.g., from now to 2100). To do so, a complementary analysis of temporality is necessary. This includes an estimation of when adaptation measures take place; the timeframe over which they are relevant (the effective life-time or sell-by date: time span during which the adaptation practice keeps on being effective, after having been implemented); and the lead time.Definition of a flexible plan. One important aspect for adaptation planning is flexibility. It means that the adaptation planning needs to consider measures to be implemented in the near-term, while leaving the option open to scale up action in the future. There exist different tools for this which cope in different ways with the uncertainty and have differing natures: the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways approaches produce dynamic robust plans (covering anticipatory, concurrent, and reactive adaptation), while Robust Decision Making produces a static robust plan (focusing on anticipatory adaptation) (Walker et al., 2013). What the urban system needs under climate change uncertainty is to develop a dynamic robust plan. In this context, the Adaptation Pathway approach emerges. The Adaptation Pathway is a policy-first approach to decision-making that targets the analysis at the adaptation challenge (Kingsborough et al., 2016). The pathway is considered to be a chain of actions, where a new action is activated once its predecessor is no longer able to meet the definition of success. The adaptation pathway can be designed on two levels: on a high level in which the stakeholders use the available information and their knowledge to design the high level pathway; and a detailed pathway which contains more detailed analysis, involves more experts and goes deeper into the pathway design.

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Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesAdaptation Pathways Approach

The Adaptation Pathway approach has been selected in RAMSES for the planning phase as it is a suitable approach for developing flexible adaptation plans under uncertainty.

The adaptation pathway approach takes the information elaborated on in the previous phases and develops possible pathways. The main methodological steps needed for the pathway design are:Authorship and ownership of the pathway need to be identified as a first step. Then the different stakeholders and experts need to be involved: A high level approach can be done as a first step with a small group, which will help identify other stakeholders and experts that need to be involved in the future.This approach is based on a cyclical process and takes the information developed in the previous phases: the adaptation measures, their assessment and timeframe are taken into account in order to assemble the pathways of responses that will tackle the previously-defined thresholds.As a result of the grouping and sequencing of the measures over time, several adaptation pathways are then developed. The performance of each adaptation pathway can then be assessed (how much is each reducing risk, how much cost does it incur etc.).

Prioritisation/ranking of the pathway alternatives. It is possible to do a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) for prioritising the options depending on other criteria like: acceptability of the measure (acceptability among stakeholders and the wider society), barriers and requirements for implementation, maintenance, co-benefits (if an option has benefits in a single-hazard or more hazards, multi-hazard), combinability or synergies with other options (Flrke, 2011; Weiland, S. and Trltzsch, J., 2015). As a concluding step, a recommended adaptation pathway will be developed which provides a pathway or roadmap for implementation.

Two main activities were undertaken in RAMSES in order to validate the adaptation pathway approach. One was a more open Stakeholder Dialogue (held on 4th October 2016, in Rome) and the other contacted participants with direct invitations (workshop held on 21th November 2016 in London). The adaptation pathway was analysed during these events in order to validate the methodological approach. Three real adaptation pathways were analysed: the Heat-related Adaptation Pathway, the Water Supply Adaptation Pathway and the Tidal Flood Risk Pathway, all in the context of London.

The above shown Adaptation Pathway cycle was elaborated following the validation exercises. Although the pathway design is presented as step-by step methodology, after starting with own objectives and understanding vulnerability, the other steps can be iterative and go in any order.

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Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesVision Construction Methodology

1. City Vulnerability:Framework descriptionin order to identify:Hotspots/keyproblems/challengesrelated to the cityfunctions/functionalities(beyond impacts)2. Vision:Framework of genericvisions and elementscombined in order toconvert previous hotspots into positive statements about the future resilient city3. Backcasting:To detect triggers of change: conditions for reaching thefuture city vision

A Vision Construction for adaptation aims to define what are the adaptation objectives in each specific research (which at the end will be related to solving the impacts detected in the impact chain) (e.g.: have a maximum 4-meter water level in the river, have a reduction of 30% in morbid-mortality in the next 10 years )

The following activities will be needed:

Identifying and prioritizing direct and indirect impacts of climate change. This activity is crucial to efficiently structure the adaptation process and the development of specific adaptation actions (Prutsch, A. et al., 2014) by analyzing previous vulnerability and risk information.

Setting up the adaptation objectives

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Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesEvaluation of Adaptation Costs

Methodologically, there are different ways of evaluating adaptation options and their costs. They offer different ways of comparing the above-listed parameters:

Cities are particularly vulnerable to heat stress. Despite this, no comprehensive methodology has been developed to assess the costs of heat stress on city economies. In this context, RAMSES provided a method for cities to measure costs and compare benefits of adaptation measures depending on the specific characteristics of each city.

The cost-benefit assessment (CBA) has been used in the coastal flood-built environment impact chain. The reason for using this approach in RAMSES is that CBA is the simplest quantitative approach, and is also simple to explain to stakeholders.

Nevertheless, non-monetary (intangible) aspects should not be neglected. In the heat-work productivity impact chain different cost-assessment approaches have been used: ranking of costs of heat through worker productivity, adaptation cost curves and cost-benefit analyses.

In the heat-health impact chain, there is no actual need for prioritization regarding heat-health adaptation, since there are no practical alternatives to heat-health action plans for adaptation.

Therefore, the prioritization methods used in RAMSES (if used) are based on the economic assessment (cost-benefit and the cost assessment). Nevertheless, for the planning (pathway design) other criteria will be used for the prioritization of adaptation alternatives (e.g. effectiveness).36

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesADAPTATION COST CURVES

Adaptation Cost Curves (ACCs) have been proposed as a tool to assist decision-makers in understanding adaptation options in terms of costs and benefits.

ACCs are obtained by plotting the cost-benefit ratio as a function of the averted loss (benefit) for each adaptation measure. Thus, in order to generate ACC, a set of key quantities is necessary, namely, the expected loss, the averted loss (the residual loss is given by the expected loss minus the averted loss), and the adaptation costs.

Adaptation cost curves can be useful for decision makers to evaluate the relative efficiency of different adaptation policies. They plot the total benefit (averted loss) from different adaptation measures against their cost/benefit ratio, and allow for a visual comparison of different adaptation measures.

We perform the analysis accounting only for climate change losses created by productivity losses due to heat stress. The estimated benefit of adaptation (averted loss) assumes installed air conditioning and solar blinds lasting for ten years; in each year the averted loss (benefit) is assumed to be the same. The cost of adaptation includes only installation costs. We produce one graph for each case study city, Antwerp, Bilbao, and London, assuming losses are the same as those estimated for a warm year in the period 2081-2100.

The graphs show one column for each adaptation measure. The width of the column measures the benefit of the measure in million . The height of each column measures the cost per euro of benefit of each measure (that is, the cost-benefit ratio). The columns are organized by most to least costly per euro of benefit.

The curves show that the total benefit of air conditioning tends to be higher, but that the cost per unit of benefit of solar blinds is always lower than that of air conditioning. This is particularly striking given that we do not account for any maintenance costs or energy costs, which can be substantial for the case of air conditioning. Thus, even though the total benefit from air conditioning is higher, its relative efficiency tends to be lower.

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Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesReferences

RAMSES Project D 5.2: Economic costs of climate change in European citieshttp://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/

RAMSES Project D 5.3: Adaptation Cost Curveshttp://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/

EEA- Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Report 2014http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/urban-adaptation-to-climate-change

EEA Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Report 2016http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/urban-adaptation-2016

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SlideDeckHEALTH ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGEReconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities

This phase aims to identify a wide range of adaptation options to address previously identified risks and reduce negative impacts to an acceptable level, or to take advantage of any positive opportunities that arise from climate change.

The aim at this stage is to identify alternatives and possibilities to respond to challenges and opportunities. Amongst these, the ones best suited for the nature of the threats that affect us and our territorial and institutional context will be chosen.

This section facilitates an exploration of potential adaptation options and helps in identifying the relevant actions and their potential co-benefits .

Once the adaptation options have been identified, the next steps are to assess and prioritize the compilation of options based on detailed descriptions and criteria.

Based on the outcomes of the previous phase (Risk Analysis) the aim here is to assess and prioritize the most efficient and appropriate measures to be implemented for climate change adaptation in the city. The selection of preferred adaptation options should be done in close collaboration with all the actors involved in the adaptation process.

Source: RAMSES D10.2 (p.45, p.52)

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Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities

Climate change has already affected human health over the last decades, directly by changing weather patterns (temperature, precipitation, rising sea levels and more frequent extreme events); indirectly by disrupting basic determinants of health like safe drinking water, clean air and food security and quality; and also by shifting patterns of disease vectors and other effects in disease transmission

Icon made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com

Climate change has already affected human health over the last decades, directly by changing weather patterns (temperature, precipitation, rising sea levels and more frequent extreme events); indirectly by disrupting basic determinants of health like safe drinking-water, clean air and food security and quality; and also by shifting patterns of disease vectors and other effects in disease transmission.

The IPCC projects that this trend will continue and most likely worsen to different extents and through various mechanisms in different parts of the world (Smith et al., 2014). In the European region1 (including the European Union) the main categories of observed and projected health-relevant climate exposures are (Baccini et al., 2011; Ciscar et al., 2014; Ciscar, Soria, & Goodess, 2009; Lindgren et al., 2012; WHO, 2008a):

1) Heat and cold; 2) Vector-borne diseases; 3) Floods; 4) Food-borne and water-borne infections; 5) Poor air quality; 6) Heavily human-mediated impacts such as mental health and occupational health issues.

While climate change is a global phenomenon, its consequences and health impacts are observed and best understood locally, albeit the causal networks are complex. Moreover, some of the defining characteristics of urban settings influence the relationship between climate-related exposures and health. On the other hand, the concentration of resources and human capital may contribute to health protection and greater resilience. The overall effect of the urban landscape and characteristics on the relationship between climate and health is not fully clear (Barata et al., 2011). However, urban populations across the European Union and the broader European region are already experiencing several of the health impacts of climate variability and climate change.

Source: RAMSES D6.2 (p.7)

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Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesClimate Change as a Health ThreatTwo crucial dimensions:

Risk of climate change on critical infrastructure vital for public health

Climate change as stressor to current health dynamics

Icons made by Vectors Market and Freepik from www.flaticon.com

Two crucial dimensions define climate change as a health threat:

- The first one is the role of climate change as a stressor to current health dynamics, thus stressing the need for increased investment and program expansion in current climate-sensitive health priorities. The second is based on the risk of climate change jeopardizing critical infrastructure vital for public health, thus representing a distinct health stressor and requiring new strategies, tools and frameworks.

Even though these two dimensions are complementary, health adaptation narratives are frequently more polarized towards one than the other leading to potential conflict (Hess et al., 2012) due to:

Competing funding priorities in practice, new initiatives usually are funded at the expense of other programming;

Deficit in essential public health services which many believe should be addressed before considering climate change impacts;

Aversion to invest in risks that are yet to materialize, instead preferring to rely on existing infrastructure and all-hazards preparedness; and

Difficulties in pursuing a long-view, systems-based, management-oriented approach to public health due to existing funding and administrative structures.

Therefore, in the process of planning and deciding health adaptation, a frank discussion is necessary from the inception phase with regard to the approach to be taken: an expansion of existing programs and services, the implementation of new ones, or both.

Regardless of the approach adopted, the best evidence should be used to inform adaptation - including health adaptation - at every level of governance, including the local level. Although there are efforts to develop standardised approaches to climate adaptation, there is up to now no generally accepted framework on the use of evidence for adaptation policy. In a context of limited resources and competing priorities, it is clear that economic evidence should play a role in adaptation planning. Specifically, activities to protect human health from climate change should routinely be evaluated not only in terms of their effectiveness or unintended consequences, but also in terms of the health damage cost of inaction, the cost of health adaptation, and the monetized benefits of different alternatives.

Source: RAMSES D6.2 (p.8)

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Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesSource: adapted from Barata et al. 2011, based on multiple sourcesHealth EffectsDriversHealth outcomesImpactRationaleTemperature extremesCardiorespiratory mortality and morbidity, heat exhaustion, etc.Urban heat island effectWeather extremes (wind, storms, floods)Mortality and morbidity from drowning, trauma, infectious diseases, long-term mental health issues, etc.Population density, soil sealing, placement.DroughtMalnutrition, etc.AmbiguousWater qualityWater-borne diseases, including diarrheal illnesses, etc.Wastewater and effluentsAir qualityCardiorespiratory mortality and morbidity, etc.Pol. sources, Pop. densityAeroallergensAllergies, asthma, etc. AmbiguousVectorsVector-borne diseases (e.g. Dengue, Malaria, etc.)Limited breeding in general

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Explanation of the table

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Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesHeat Waves and Public HealthRecent heat-waves in Europe have led to a rise in related morbidity and mortality

but the adverse health effects of hot weather and heat-waves are largely preventable, e.g. though:

health system preparedness coordinated with meteorological early warning systems

timely public and medical advice

improvements to housing and urban planning

HEAT-HEALTH ACTION PLAN

Factors affecting behaviourPhysical or cognitive impairment, Psychiatric illness, InfantsIncreased heat gainExercise, outdoor activity, medicationsFactor influencing cardiac outputCardiovascular diseases, medicationsFactors reducing plasma volumeDiarrhoea, pre-existing renal or metabolic disease, medicationsFactors affecting sweatingDehydration, ageing, diabetes, scleroderma, cystic fibrosis, medications36,1-37,8 CSource: WHO Europe- Heat-Health Action Plans Guidance

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Climate change is leading to variations in weather patterns and an apparent change in extreme weather events, including heat-waves.

Recent heat-waves in Europe have led to a rise in related mortality but the adverse health effects of hot weather and heat-waves are largely preventable. Prevention requires a portfolio of actions:

from health system preparedness coordinated with meteorological early warning systems to timely public and medical advice and improvements to housing and urban planning.

These actions can be integrated in a defined heathealth action plan.

European countries have taken action mainly by developing and implementing heathealth action plans. However, there are still gaps in implementation and many European countries have not yet developed sufficient actions.

Heat is lost to the environment by: (1) radiation through electromagnetic waves in the form of infrared rays; (2) convection through water or air circulating across the skin; (3) conduction through cooler objects in direct contact with the skin; and (4) evaporation of sweat. a temperature gradient between the skin and its surroundings. Excessive heat stresses the cardiovascular system, rising the core temperature.

Source: RAMSES D6.2 (p.8); WHO Europe report: Protecting Health in Europe from climate change (p.14)

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European Cities in Action

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesSource: http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/tools/urban-adaptationKey interventions:

Emergency preparadness and response management

Strengthening health systems to prevent and treat diseases

Preventive measures:Safer housingFlood protectionVector controlImproved surveillanceEarly warning information systemsCommunity-based disaster risk reduction

Against this background of risk, there is a relatively wide consensus on the generic categories of actions required to protect health from climate change impacts (European Commission, 2013; Samet, 2009; Smith et al., 2014; WHO, 2008a). These priorities and key interventions have been translated into policy commitments that can serve as frameworks for analysis and action.

Beyond the main health adaptation principles, the categories of specific interventions needed to protect health from climate impacts are also well established. Such categories include, for example, general and sector-specific emergency preparedness and response management; strengthening health systems to effectively prevent and treat diseases and health conditions; and preventive measures, such as safer housing, flood protection, vector control, improved surveillance, early warning information systems and community-based disaster risk reduction. These categories are still generic, since specific responses can only be planned and implemented according to the specific climate-related hazards faced by each community. The process of identification of these hazards, population vulnerability and adaptation options can be managed via existing national guidelines on the matter or, in their absence, through the methods laid out in international guidance documents (e.g. EC, 2013; WHO, 2013).

Picture: Participation of 650 European cities in European and global city initiatives related to adaptation, December 2015

While heterogeneous, national-level engagement in adaptation is harmonised in the European region due to international and European policy and legislation, the engagement of local authorities in adaptation remains diffuse, uncoordinated and heterogeneous.

In general, larger cities who are proactive in mitigation are also among the frontrunners in climate adaptation.

Source: RAMSES D6.2 (p.7)

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SlideDeckESTIMATING THE HEALTH IMPACTSOF CLIMATE CHANGE (HEALTH ASSESSMENT TOOL)Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities

This phase aims to identify a wide range of adaptation options to address previously identified risks and reduce negative impacts to an acceptable level, or to take advantage of any positive opportunities that arise from climate change.

The aim at this stage is to identify alternatives and possibilities to respond to challenges and opportunities. Amongst these, the ones best suited for the nature of the threats that affect us and our territorial and institutional context will be chosen.

This section facilitates an exploration of potential adaptation options and helps in identifying the relevant actions and their potential co-benefits.

Once the adaptation options have been identified, the next steps are to assess and prioritize the compilation of options based on detailed descriptions and criteria.

Based on the outcomes of the previous phase (Risk Analysis) the aim here is to assess and prioritize the most efficient and appropriate measures to be implemented for climate change adaptation in the city. The selection of preferred adaptation options should be done in close collaboration with all the actors involved in the adaptation process.

Source: RAMSES D10.2 (p.45, p.52)

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Cost of premature mortality Loss of welfare to society (through willingness to pay) Foregone income, capital formation

Cost associated to morbidity Full income approach COI Cost of Illness: Captures costs related to a case of the outcome(s) considered.

Main categories of economic evidence relevant to health adaptation Cost of inaction Cost of adaptation Benefits of adaptation

There are two options to measure the costs of health damage from climate change:a) estimating the economy-wide health costs (with an integrated assessment tool)b) estimating the health costs for a part of the society (following "microeconomic" methods)

The Economics of Health Adaptation

Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for CitiesDirect costs

Indirect costs

Intangible costs

Icon made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com

The cost of health damage from climate change, and indeed any health economic impact, can be estimated in several ways. A key question to determine what approach to use is whether the economic impact is to be measured on society as a whole or on some parts of it. The latter frequently entails in practice aggregating partial estimates of the cost of increased morbidity and its consequences, and of the cost of increased premature mortality risk.

The cost of premature mortality can be estimated through various methods, most of which assume either a loss of welfare to society associated to premature death (measured through willingness to pay), or an opportunity cost of such premature death in terms of foregone income, capital formation or both. The economic valuation of mortality risk is extensively explored elsewhere (OECD, 2010, 2012), but for our purposes it is worth noting that the choice of valuation technique and metric greatly affects the final estimates.

For the estimation of the costs associated to morbidity, a commonly used approach is the Cost of illness (COI), which is the technique used by this tool. In a so-called full income approach, health economics evaluations sometimes pool morbidity and mortality costs. However, given that the conceptual foundations of the measurement of lost welfare associated to premature mortality through willingness to pay are disputed, in principle the best practice would be to separately report market costs such as treatment and lost income, and nonmarket costs such as mortality.

The main categories of economic evidence relevant to health adaptation are: The cost of inaction, that is, the full cost of the health damage brought about by climate change if nothing is done to avert it; The cost of adaptation, meaning the full cost of the actions intended to avert the health damage from climate change (and possibly others with a different intent but clear health protection effects see discussion in section 2.5.2 Theoretical basis for the Adaptation costs worksheet); and The benefits of adaptation, namely the monetized benefits from averting a proportion of the health damage of climate change through adaptation.

The main current alternative analytical approach to the aforementioned is to assess, for a whole economic system, the aggregate impact of climate-related disease and injury across different economic agents. The diversity and complexity of methods derived from this approach is considerable.. The implementation of this tool as an integrated assessment model estimating the economy-wide health costs of climate change would not be compatible with the overall costing framework of the RAMSES project. Therefore, the methodological approach taken in this tool follows microeconomic methods and foundations.

Source: RAMSES D6.2 (p.9, p.11)

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Evaluation of the economic consequences of disease and injury resulting from climate-related health outcomes

Based on a limited number of inputs (applicable also in settings of low data availability)

The valuation methods are based on mainstream bottom-up techniques of a microeconomic character

That is, on aggregating partial estimates of the cost of increased morbidity and its consequences, and of the cost of increased premature mortality risk

The resulting outputs are cost-effectiveness ratio and partial benefit-to-cost ratios

Provide estimates for advocacy by local governments and other stakeholders and early adaptation guidance

Ultimately, this methodology is part of t