slides (pdf) for 100yss 2012 session on vessel archives

Existential Risk, Human Survival,and the Future of Life in the Universe:

Interstellar Civilization through Vessel Archives

Heath Rezabek, [email protected]

100 Year Starship SymposiumSeptember 13-‐16, 2012. Houston, Texas.

ORIGINS / © Lucy West 2012 / Used by Permission


Session slides available.

slideshare.net/heathrezabek

biota.cc/vessel-slides.pdf

biota.cc/vessel.pdf

Exploring further...

Brief highlightsOnly a few key ideas could be covered in this 20 minute session. To save time, topics in breakout slides will not be explored in depth.

Refer to paper for detailsThe working Paper is 50 pages, and covers all key elements of this proposal. References are also cited there.

ContactInquiries and collaboration [email protected]

ORIGINS (Detail)

© Lucy West 2012 / Used by Permission

[email protected]

EXOPLANET TRANSIT / ESA / Illustration by AOES Medialab 2003

The Fermi Paradox and The Great Silence


Are we alone?



Kepler and 0ther observations tell us that there is no shortage of worlds to be detected.

Billions of years for worlds to develop.Radiant life or von Neumann probes would need < 1 million years.Where are they?

This is the Fermi Paradox.The quiet in place of any other signs of life: the Great Silence.

biota.cc/vessel.pdf


Possible answers to the Fermi Paradox

Responsibility to strive,regardless of the unknown status of other life

EXOPLANET TRANSIT

ESA / Illustration by AOES Medialab 2003


EXOPLANET TRANSIT / ESA 2003 / Illustration by AOES Medialab

Is life widespread, or as uncommonas we seem to be?

Learning the truth through interstellar travel will take time.

We must foster a supporting—and surviving—interstellar civilization.

MASSIVE TERRESTRIAL STRIKE / Don Davis / NASA


Existential Risk

Will we endure?


Existential Risk

100 years to achieve our primary goal.Our endeavor could be cut short before that time has passed.

The risk that we may not endure is termed Existential Risk.

An existential risk is one that threatens the premature extinction of Earth-‐originating intelligent life or the permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development.

-‐ Nick BostromExistential Risk Prevention as the Most Important Task for Humanity (2011)


Existential Risk

“... the permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development.”

Survival alone is not enough.

In some cases, a surviving society may be brutalized, stagnant, or diminished irreparably. Bostrom’s 2011 classification sets aside discussion of particular causes.

Strict focus on outcomes helps us envision possible recovery scenarios.


Existential Risk

Classification of Existential Risk

Human Extinction Humanity goes extinct prematurely, i.e., before reaching technological maturity.

Permanent StagnationHumanity survives but never reaches technological maturity. Subclasses: Unrecovered Collapse, Plateauing, Recurrent Collapse

Flawed RealizationHumanity reaches technological maturity but in a way that is dismally and irremediably flawed. Subclasses: Unconsummated Realization, Ephemeral Realization

Subsequent RuinationHumanity reaches technological maturity in a way that gives good future prospects, yet subsequent developments cause the permanent ruination of those prospects.



Existential Risk

Imperative

To achieve an interstellar civilization while

addressing existential risk, we must do more than

survive: we must preserve our aspirations, our

capabilities, our cultural resources, and our

biodiversity.

DIATOM 1 (Sarah Parker-Eaton & Louise Hibbert)

Photo via Bradbury J: Nature's Nanotechnologists: Unveiling the Secrets of Diatoms. PLoS Biol 2/10/2004: e306. (CC-BY-2.5) 2004

What type of archive would answer to Permanent Stagnation or Flawed Realization?

Gregory Benford suggested one example in 1992, addressing catastrophic loss of biodiversity.

The Library of Life



The Library of Life



The Library of Life: A thought experiment on avoiding irreversible loss of biodiversity.

A broad program of freezing species in threatened ecospheres could preserve biodiversity for eventual use by future generations. Sampling without studying can lower costs dramatically. […] Much more information than species DNA will be saved, allowing future biotechnology to derive high information content and perhaps even resurrect then-‐extinct species.

-‐ Gregory BenfordAbstract for “Saving the Library of Life” (1992)

The Library of Life



Controversial, but galvanizing.

My main concern is that people will conclude that scientists have given up on preserving living biodiversity, or that future species extinctions are not so worrisome because we can always reconstitute the species and genera that we render extinct. But […] these potential obstacles can be circumvented: by stressing [...] that the very fact that such steps are being taken is an indication of how serious the problem is.

-‐ Carl SaganLetter to Benford in Deep Time (1999)

The Library of Life proposal was one of the deepest and earliest influences on my Vessel Archives proposal. It taught: We cannot be afraid to galvanize our efforts, when confronting existential risk.

The Library of Life



What type of facility would be needed to carry a Library of Life, or house a cultural equivalent, over the very-‐long-‐term?

Cultural archives would require different methods, and the facility itself could take on as many different forms as there are cultures...

Architect © Vincent Callebaut Architectures 2008

Visualization Used by Permission and © Philippe Steels 2008 LILYPAD / Floating Ecopolis

Vessel Archives



Vessel Archives

A Vessel Archive is a self-‐contained, sustainable habitat, which harbors the traces of Earth's cultures and biomes.

These installations would serve in the near-‐term as examples of sustainability and as ambassadors for society's understanding of the 100 Year Starship Mission, and would serve in the long-‐term as protective vessels for humanity's aspirations, knowledge, and the traces of life itself.

Vessel Archives would be dedicated to their twin goals of education, and preservation.



Vessel Archives



Vessel Archives

Vessel (noun.)

The term vessel describes our focused-‐purpose arcology in part through its several meanings.

A vessel is a ship; a vehicle meant to ply the waters (on Earth), or the space between the stars.

A vessel is a container into which is poured something meant to be stored or carried.

A vessel is a conduit or a medium for transmission.



Vessel Archives



Vessel Archives

The installation as a whole should be designed as self-‐sufficient, sustainable, and resilient in case of existential catastrophe.

Each Vessel Archive should be designed to harbor a diverse and interdisciplinary crew and staff of just a few thousand, per archive.

They would be colonies on Earth, dedicated to the legacy of life.



Vessel Archives



Vessel Archives

One habitat for a few thousand will not solve our societal challenges or safeguard life on Earth. Connected communities of hundreds or thousands of Vessel Archives around the world, each sharing concrete methods for sustainable design with society at large, may do better...



Vessel Archives



Vessel Archives

A Vessel Archive’s outer exhibits, clearly visible to a curious public, would house resources and environments introducing the 100 Year Starship Mission.

At the heart of a Vessel Archive would be labs for research and development, core collections, and sample banks of the cultural and biological records.

This core archive (like a Library of Life) could be replicated, and transferred in whole or in part to a 100 Year Starship, to serve as its memory of Earth.



Vessel Archives



Vessel Archives

The Vessel Archive, carried out in many forms, would address the debilitating outcomes of existential risk:

Permanent Stagnation; (Unrecovered Collapse; Plateauing; Recurrent Collapse)

Flawed Realization; (Unconsummated Realization; Ephemeral Realization)

Vessel Archives would also address the other two outcome classes.



Vessel Archives

STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission

Many other approaches inform the Vessel Archive proposal, starting with the need to encourage hybrid vigor through an open specification...

biota.cc/vessel.pdf


Creative CommonsSeed several instances of open specification and resource sites to explore, detail, and document the creation of Vessel Archives, encouraging hybrid vigor.

biota.cc/vessel.pdf

The 100 Year Starship: Inviting Humanity

DAEDALUS ARRIVES / © Adrian Mann 2012 / Used by Permission

Given the time, I’d explore how we could inspire the public with the 100 Year Starship Mission, through interactive exhibits at existing, familiar institutions: Museums, Planetariums, Arboretums, Observatories, Universities, Libraries...

DAEDALUS SEPARATED

© Adrian Mann 2012 / Used by Permission

biota.cc/vessel.pdf


Many Forms and Formats possible for conveying the 100YSS Mission Story

Scenario-‐Gaming, Simulations, and Role-‐Play

biota.cc/vessel.pdf


Becoming an Interstellar Civilization

Redefining our Cosmology

STAR MAP

© Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission

EDEN PROJECT: TROPICAL BIOME / Photo via Steve Keiretsu (CC-BY-1.0) 2001

Biophilia and Biophilic Design: A Pattern Language

I’d detail architectural approaches we could use to build Vessel Archives as dedicated, multipurpose facilities.

biota.cc/vessel.pdfDIATOM 1 (Sarah Parker-Eaton & Louise Hibbert)



Binary DNA Data SequencingRecent work (Church/Gao/Kosuri 2012) is discussed, along with possible applications.

biota.cc/vessel.pdf

In the Paper...

Arcology (Paolo Soleri, 1969)Compact and integrated installations as self-‐contained cities.

biota.cc/vessel.pdfFrom ARCOLOGY: The City in the Image of Man

© Paolo Soleri 1969 / Used by Permission

biota.cc/vessel.pdfbiota.cc/vessel.pdf THORNCROWN CHAPEL (E. Fay Jones)

Photo via Bobak (CC-BY-SA-2.5) 2006


The Biophilia Hypothesis and Biophilic Design

Pattern Languages (Christopher Alexander)

biota.cc/vessel.pdfbiota.cc/vessel.pdfLILYPAD /


Visualization © Philippe Steels 2008

Visualization Used by Permission


100YSS: Icarus Interstellar Project HyperionResearch on very-‐long-‐term habitat design factors.

100YSS: Icarus Interstellar Project PersephoneResearch on evolving architecture for very-‐long-‐term and extrasolar habitat design.

(Biophilic Design, Pattern Languages, Arcology / habitats: All applicable.)

biota.cc/vessel.pdf


Preservation of Cultural Architecture and Vernacular Pattern LanguagesCase study: Traditional Japanese architectural solutions and patterns.

BAMBOO

Photo via Alijava (CC-BY-SA-2.5) 2012


biota.cc/vessel.pdf


The Long Now Foundation10,000 Year Clock to encourage very-‐long-‐term thinking.

Deep ArchivalBruce Sterling on very-‐long-‐term archival.

CLOCK OF THE LONG NOW (Long Now Foundation)


biota.cc/vessel.pdf


Mission launch capability as deep design goal

Core Vessel Archives as cargo on 100YSS ships

biota.cc/vessel.pdf



biota.cc/vessel.pdf


But none of these things matter,in the absence of a 100 year answer

to this:

PALE BLUE DOT / NASA / JPL 1990

James Webb Space Telescope Mirror 37 / NASA / MSFC / David Higginbotham / Emmett Given 2010

The Great Filter



The Great Filter

We began with the Great Silence, and end by considering the Great Filter.

The Great Silence implies that one or more of these steps [from organic stellar material to expansive interstellar life and colonization] are very improbable; there is a “Great Filter” along the path between simple dead stuff and explosive life. The vast majority of stuff that starts along this path never makes it. [...] The fact that our universe seems basically dead suggests that it is very hard for advanced explosive lasting life to arise.

-‐ Robin HansonThe Great Filter -‐ Are We Almost Past It? (1998)


The Great Filter

Countless Generations to Come


Countless Generations to Come


The stakes are high, but the potential future benefits of undertaking this work are also vast, when considering the long-‐term potential of our interstellar civilization.

To calculate the loss associated with an existential catastrophe, we must consider how much value would come to exist in its absence. It turns out that the ultimate potential for Earth-‐originating intelligent life is literally astronomical. […] The relevant figure is not how many people could live on Earth but how many descendants we could have in total. ... Even if we use the most conservative of […] estimates, […] we find that the expected loss of an existential catastrophe is greater than the value of 1018 human lives. This implies that the expected value of reducing existential risk by a mere one millionth of one percentage point is at least ten times the value of a billion human lives.



“The most astounding fact ... is the knowledge that the atoms that comprise life on Earth, the atoms that make up the human body, are traceable to the crucibles that cooked light elements into heavy elements in their core ... under extreme temperatures and pressures. These stars ... went unstable in their later years. They collapsed and then exploded, scattering their enriched guts across the galaxy. Guts made of carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, and all the fundamental ingredients of life itself. These ingredients become part of gas clouds that condense, collapse, form the next generation of solar systems—stars with orbiting planets—and those planets now have the ingredients for life itself. So that when I look up at the night sky, and I know that—yes—we are part of this universe, we are in this universe... But perhaps more important than both of those facts, is that the universe is in us. When I reflect on that fact, I look up—many people feel small, because they're small and the universe is big; but I feel big. Because my atoms came from those stars.”

-‐ Neil deGrasse TysonTIME: 10 Questions for Neil deGrasse Tyson.


slides (pdf) for 100yss 2012 session on vessel archives

Education