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The effects of digitalisation on the economy
Entreprenörskapsforum (26 March 2019)
Cecilia Skingsley,
Deputy Governor
My speech today
Societal changes due to technology shift
Changed conceptual framework for monetary
policy
Digitalisation:Increase productivity?Where are we now?
“You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics”*
*Robert Solow (1987), “We’d better watch out”, New York Times Book Review,
12 July 1987, p. 36.
Low productivity in recent years
Falling productivity trend... ...and downward revisions to our forecasts
Note. Annual percentage change. The productivity trend is calculated as the GDP trend divided by the trend in hours worked. The GDP trend is calculated with the aid of a production function and the trend for hours worked is assessed by the Riksbank. The forecasts refer to productivity trends and are the forecasts made prior to the monetary policy meetings in February each year.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Are we in the installation or deployment phase?
Installation phase
• Creative destruction
• Exploring new markets
• Growth in a couple of sectors and companies
Deployment phase
• Creative build-up
• Markets consolidated
• Broad acceptance and major benefits for the entire economy
Digitalisation a possibility, mostly among
industrial companies
Note. Percentage of responses. Sources: Bart van Ark (2016) and the Riksbank’s Business Survey in May
2018.
Major structural changes over time...
Major changes in the labour force... ...but employment rate has been high
Sources: Edvinsson, R, (2005) ‘Growth, Accumulation, Crisis: With New Macroeconomic Data for Sweden’, Almqvist & Wiksell Inte rnational;
Stockholm. Edvinsson, R (2014), ‘The Gross Domestic Product of Sweden within present borders, 1620 –2012’, in Historical Monetary and
Financial Statistics for Sweden, Volume II: House Prices, Stock Returns, National Accounts, and the Riksbank Balance Sheet, 1 620–2012 (eds.
Rodney Edvinsson, Tor Jacobson and Daniel Waldenström) Sveriges Riksbank and Ekerlids and Statistics Sweden.
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
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Note. Percentage of employed and
percentage employed in the population.
...with steady increases in welfare
Note. SEK, year 2000 prices. Source: Edvinsson, R (2014), ‘The Gross Domestic Product of Sweden within present borders, 1620 –2012’, in Historical Monetary and Financial
Statistics for Sweden, Volume II: House Prices, Stock Returns, National Accounts, and the Riksbank Balance Sheet, 1620 –2012 (eds. Rodney
Edvinsson, Tor Jacobson and Daniel Waldenström) Sveriges Riksbank
Real GDP per capita
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300000
350000
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250000
300000
350000
1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
However, clear challenges in the short term...
• Changeovers look simple in data terms
• Overall improvements are not
frictionless at individual level
...but they can be tackled
• Embrace life-long learning
• The transfer system is the primary tool
for managing economic redistribution
• If necessary, some markets can be
regulated to safeguard efficiency and
competition in the interests of the
general public
Source: Article “Digitalisation and inflation”
Monetary Policy Report, February 2015
How digitalisation can affect inflation
Digital technological developments
Automation
Pressure on wages
Lower costs
Lower price mark-ups
Lower inflation
Increased competition
Higher productivity
e-commerce
Better-informed consumers
Cheaper ICT products for consumers
Often lower employment is expected in Swedish companies...
Note. Response frequency, per cent. Consumer-related companies are those selling
goods or services to private individuals. The question was: How do you think the use of
digital technology will affect the number of employees in your company over the
coming three years?
Sources: The Riksbank's Business Survey in May 2018 and Fudurich et al, “Adoption
of digital technologies: Insights from a global survey initiative”, to be published as
Staff Analytical Note, Bank of Canada
...and primarily among consumer-related companies
Note. Response frequency, per cent. Consumer-related companies are those selling goods or services
to private individuals. The question was: How do you think the use of digital technology will affect the
number of employees in your company over the coming three years?
Source: The Riksbank’s business survey in May 2018
We are buying things online more oftenRising percentage have bought goods or
services online...
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10
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02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
...high profitability in a European perspective
Note. Refers to percentage of population that have bought a product or service
online in the past three months.
Source: Eurostat.
E-commerce has become increasingly important in Sweden
Note. Percentage of retail trade turnover Sources: HUI Research and E-Barometern.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
ICT goods - little affect on inflationICT goods not contributing more negatively to
inflation now than before...
...and on the whole the contribution to the
CPIF is small
Note. Annual percentage change. The blue line represents ICT-related products,
which include household appliances, telephony, TVs, cameras, CDs, DVDs, toys,
books and newspapers. The red trend line is a three-year moving average.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank.
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Similar effects on prices as in other countries expected...
Note. Response frequency, per cent. Consumer-related companies are those selling goods
or services to private individuals. The question was: How do you think the use of digital
technology will affect the selling price of your goods and services over the coming three
years?
Sources: The Riksbank's Business Survey in May 2018 and Fudurich et al, “Adoption
of digital technologies: Insights from a global survey initiative”, to be published as
Staff Analytical Note, Bank of Canada.
...but primarily lower consumer prices
Source: The Riksbank’s business survey in May 2018 Note. Response frequency, per cent. Consumer-related companies are those selling goods or
services to private individuals. The question was: How do you think the use of digital technology will
affect the selling price of your goods and services over the coming three years?
Inflation and e-commerce in Europe
Note. The y axis shows the annual percentage change in the HICP and the x axis shows the country's share of trade in the form of e-commerce. Each
circle in the figure represents a country for one year. The countries included are Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cypru s, Czech Republic,
Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, N etherlands, Norway,
Poland, Portugal, Rumania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom.
Source: Eurostat.
Credible inflation target an anchor for the economy
Note. Annual percentage change. The CPIF is formal target variable since 7
September 2017.
Source: Statistics Sweden
Summarising points
• Changes such as digitalisation are decisive to our welfare in the long run
• But transitions are never painless
• Can often be managed by other policy areas
• Clear game rules facilitate structural changes
• Reliable price stability, in terms of purchasing power, is one such game rule