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Slow Boil: Colombias response to the chronic emergency of climate vulnerability Brown University Providence, 8 April 2011 Slide 2 Outline 1.The rise of climate adaptation in LAC 2.Colombia & the global climate talks 3.Colombias climate vulnerability 4.How to shoot the rapids and survive? Slide 3 The rise of climate adaptation It was understood that [the Kyoto Protocol] would only include commitments to reduce emissions Michael Zammit- Cutajar 1 A [] critical element for success in Cancn is to strike a better balance when considering climate adaptation and mitigation Yvo de Boer 2 Slide 4 The rise of climate adaptation LAC Scaled-up interest / participation Shifting priorities Slide 5 The rise of climate adaptation Just 11% of accumulated global emissions (1990-2005) Slide 6 Big differences in GHG emissions Slide 7 but climate vulnerability is a common concern Slide 8 The rise of climate adaptation Probabilidad de ocurrencia Un evento cada X aos Probabilidad de ocurrencia disminuye Daos millones USD 2008 Ejemplo curva de vulnerabilidad para inundacin en Guyana Caso extremo 2030 Slide 9 COP 1 Berlin 1995 COP 6 Bonn 2001 COP 10 Buenos Aires 2004 COP 12 Nairobi 2006 Colombia & the global climate talks < 2006 Niche area (Envt. & Foreign Affairs) CDM / Forests focus Slide 10 Colombia & the global climate talks 2007 2009 Strategic relations w/, like-minded partners beyond LAC (e.g. AOSIS) Leadership role on adaptation / finance Pres. Uribe in group of 25 leaders at CPH Slide 11 Colombia & the global climate talks 2010 < CPH Accord / Cancun pledge Cartagena Dialogue Broader x-Govt participation Slide 12 Colombia flood emergency, 2010-11 2.3 million affected in 28 of 32 states 310 dead 6,700 homes destroyed Slide 13 Economic impacts Short term: Crop loss Food price spike Localized (household / community impacts) Long term: It depends!? Slide 14 Failed humanitarian response Late Poorly coordinated Inadequate (below international standards) Slide 15 Colombias climate vulnerability What went wrong? High exposure: Yes, but not worst in 60 years1988 La Nia Yearly victims in Colombia Resources: No, plenty of resources! Response coordination: Yes, Politically-bungled UN didnt help Underlying structural vulnerabilities Yes! Inequality Persistent failure to embrace ARR Slide 16 How to shoot the rapids and survive? 1.Embrace disaster risk management: Political & operational power of Govt. disaster management agency Comprehensive, sustainable, effective disaster risk management policy: Sustained investment in local disaster management capacities Structural fund for climate adaptation & risk management 2.Reconcile with countervailing development pathway Slide 17 Conclusions 1.Climate adaptation, Latin American imperative 2.Colombia, international climate champion 3.Colombia, domestic disaster victim 4.Colombia (and LAC) can build resilience, but only by reconciling divergent paths Slide 18 Notes 1.Climate Change TV interview (video), June 2009: http://www.climate-change.tv/michael-zammit-cutajar-june-2009http://www.climate-change.tv/michael-zammit-cutajar-june-2009 2.Copenhagen shows we need caution in Cancn, Nature, 24 November 2010: http://www.nature.com/news/2010/101124/full/468477a.html http://www.nature.com/news/2010/101124/full/468477a.html Slide 19