1

The US economy continues to challenge fears of a global

economic downturn with consistent job gains, wage growth

and resilient consumer spending. The market bottomed on

February 11, but the tide turned bullish that same day when

Jamie Dimon, CEO at JPMorgan Chase, delivered a

vote of confidence to the market by using his own cash to

purchase 500,000 shares of stock in the bank he leads. It’s

no coincidence that on the same day stocks bottomed, so did

US produced oil, when its price hit a 13 year low of $26.21

a barrel (Jack Ablin, CIO of BMO Private Bank). Oil prices

may have found a bottom as prices rebounded back to near-

ly $40 in early April, easing fears of defaults on energy

loans held by banks, which aided high-yield bonds; another

turning point that sparked the market’s recovery. Since

bottoming on February 11, the S&P 500 has rallied 12.6%

(excluding dividends). Impressive as the recovery has

been, it has only managed to get the market slightly into the

black with year-to-date (3/31/16) returns on the S&P 500 of

1.3% (WSJ, 4/2/16).

The Fed not only stayed put at their March meeting, they

also lowered their future guidance to only two rate hikes

this year, down from four rate hikes that were suggested in

December. However, the market had already been pricing

in two hikes, so this was primarily a confirmation of that

view, and unlikely to provide a continuing lift to stocks. At

this point, for the market to make signs of significant head-

way going forward, we will need to see some improvement

in the economy and/or corporate earnings (Fidelity Monitor

& Insight, 4/16). Through the last quarter of 2015, trailing

12 month earnings have declined for three straight quarters,

a trend that could continue for the first half of 2016. Given

that backdrop, stocks may have a tough time sustaining a

rally for any length of time. According to James Paulsen,

CIO at Wells Fargo, we should expect to see volatility rise,

while the market goes through rallies and slumps, making

only modest headway.

Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan,

indicated that the bulk of the current earnings weakness is

due to plunging profits in the energy sector and the fallout

from the strong dollar. Dr. Kelly expects the “earnings fog

to lift,” with a likely weaker dollar and higher oil prices.

According to Edward Yardeni, Chief Investment Strategist

for Yardeni Research, “It’s going to be a sideways action

from here.” It’s not that stocks have a big r isk of going

down a lot, it’s that he doesn’t see equities breaking out on

the upside in a big way, unless earnings improve.

According to Mark Hulbert, senior columnist at Mar-

ketWatch, the most important lesson in previous market

cycles is that valuations matter. For example,

at the top of the Internet Bubble, the price-to-earnings (P/

E) ratio of Cisco was 200 times trailing 12 month earnings

per share. That compares to the historical average P/E

ratio of the S&P 500 Index at around 15. Just after it

peaked at the top, Cisco lost 90% of its value over the next

two years. Fortunately, most stocks today are not as over-

valued as Cisco was then. The S&P 500 Index’s P/E ratio

was 27.2 in March 2000, much higher than today at

around 16.6. Though today’s P/E is modestly above the

historical average, it’s not in bubble territory and at times

has been somewhat cheap, getting down to 14.7 on Febru-

ary 11. According to Dr. Kelly, today’s US stock market

valuations are slightly above average relative to history,

but still attractively valued relative to bond yields, infla-

tion and cash, particularly compared to the yield on for-

eign 10-year government bonds.

Watch: Yields on intermediate and long-term treasury debt

have plunged by half a percentage point despite a quarter

point hike in the benchmark of interest rates by the Federal

Reserve. Historically, the flattening of the yield curve,

shrinking differentials between short and long-term yield,

has been among the most reliable indicator of an ap-

proaching slowdown or recession. The signal is most

potent when the yield curve “inverts”, meaning the yield

on 10-year treasury notes drops below the yield on 3-

month treasury bills. An inverted yield curve is not likely

to happen in the near future, as the Fed has kept short-term

rates unnaturally low, while globally interest rates have

also been unnaturally low (Historical Perspectives,

2/14/16). Stay the course.

On April 6, 2016, the long discussed Fiduciary Rule was

finalized by the DOL. Spectrum will have more on the

Fiduciary Rule later , including a presentation by

ERISA attorney Bradford Campbell at our June 22 Retire-

ment Investment Seminar, co-sponsored with the WICPA.

Jonathan J. Marshall

Spectrum was 1 of 5 finalists

for the 2016 PlanSponsor

Retirement PlanAdviser

Large Team of the Year

Spectrum Investor®

Coffee House

Educational Series

Wednesday, May 11, 2016

Estate Planning

Featuring Guest Speaker

Mark Shiller, Attorney

Certus Legal Group, Ltd.

11th Annual Retirement Plan

Investment Seminar

Wed, June 22, 2016

Co-Sponsored by Spectrum

And the WICPA

For weekly market updates,

visit our website at

www.spectruminvestor.com

under Resources & Links and

click on Investment Resources

For an electronic version of this

newsletter, our ADV Part 2A

and our Privacy Policy,

please visit our website

Past performance is not an

indication of future results

We appreciate your business

SM

James F. Marshall

Country 10-year Gov’t

Bond

Country 10-year Gov’t

Bond

Switzerland -0.35% United States 1.72%

Euro Area -0.29% Australia 2.40%

Japan -0.08% New Zealand 2.82%

Germany 0.11% China 2.91%

Netherlands 0.33% Portugal 3.41%

France 0.46% Mexico 5.95%

Canada 1.24% India 7.41%

Italy 1.33% Greece 8.93%

United Kingdom 1.39% Russia 9.26%

Spain 1.51% South Africa 10.16%

Source: tradingeconomics.com/bonds (4/11/16)

2

While the grass turns green and tulips start to emerge from the ground,

we all begin to think about spring cleaning. Spring cleaning can mean

trimming trees, raking leaves we missed last fall, washing the car and

revisiting retirement planning projections. Wait…what??

Spring is a great time for cleaning and that means your finances, too. My

grandfather had a saying – “the best time to trim a tree is when the saw is

sharp.” That applies to your financial picture, too. The best time to clean

up your finances is...well, now.

Polish your nest egg (Rebalance your investments)

You’ve heard us preach in the past that spring is the best time to re-

balance your investments. In fact, we mention it in this very newsletter.

If you’re going to rebalance your investments, it is also a good time to

review your risk tolerance and asset allocation. Are you too aggressive?

Too conservative? If you’re not sure where you should be in terms of

equity (stocks) and fixed income (bonds & cash), take a risk tolerance

quiz or contact us. We’ll help you find a good mix for the future.

Be sure to review the dollar contributions you’re making to your ac-

counts. Are you taking advantage of an employer match on your 401(k)?

If you’re able to, are you making Roth IRA/401(k) contributions? Are

you contributing to your college savings plans? Most accounts today

allow for a monthly contribution directly from a checking or savings

account. According to the IRS (www.irs.gov), the average monthly ben-

efit for Social Security recipients is $1,177. Will that meet your needs in

retirement? Or would additional savings help? At a 6% annual return,

saving $50/month for 20 years gives you a future balance of $23,218.

Bump that monthly amount up to $200 and your total after 20 years is

$92,870.

Do a little trimming (Consolidate accounts)

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov), the average

worker holds 10 different jobs before age 40. That number is increasing,

which creates many different retirement savings plans and an increase in

paperwork. If you have old 401(k) plans from previous jobs, it’s likely

that you’re able to roll those over and consolidate them into an IRA or

your current retirement plan. There may be good reasons to keep your

retirement plans separate, but there are often more reasons to consolidate

the accounts. For example, you are better able to keep track of your in-

vestments and have less paperwork to worry about. This also makes it

easy for your spouse or heirs to take care of your investments if some-

thing should happen to you. We’ll talk more about that later.

If you have investments spread in different individual stocks, mutual

funds or other brokerage accounts, consider consolidating those as well.

We often see people with stock certificates, dividend reinvestment plans

(DRPs) and other investments spread out among different custodians and

banks. Consolidating those into fewer accounts will make your life much

easier and will allow you to more easily manage your finances. If you’ve

already done that, consider electronic statement delivery. You’ll receive

your statements quickly and won’t have to find a place to file the paper.

This may not be for everyone, but you can always switch back to paper if

you prefer.

Visual Inspection and Fine Tuning (Review your estate plan)

When is the last time you reviewed your estate plan? Although it’s not

nearly as exciting as watching your investments grow, an estate plan

review is necessary to help you think about what will happen to your

money in the event something happens to you. Wills, trusts and durable

powers of attorney documents need to be reviewed by estate planning

attorneys on a regular basis. Laws have changed recently and will con-

tinue to change. The 2016 exemption for federal estate taxes is set at

$5.45 million for individuals. However, you don’t need that much mon-

ey for the establishment of a personal trust to make financial sense.

Those with a trust created 10+ years ago may find there are more effi-

cient ways to design your estate plan. The state of Wisconsin adopted a

new Trust Code in 2014, which may have an effect on your plan.

We’re hosting a seminar on May 11 that focuses on estate planning.

Local attorney Mark Schiller will be speaking on the topic. If you’re

unsure of your own situation, the first step would be to attend the semi-

nar. It’s educational only – no sales pitch at the end.

Social Security

As a reminder, you have until April 30 to file-and-suspend your So-

cial Security Retirement benefits. You need to be 66 before May 1 to

qualify. Be sure to read our previous newsletter to find out more

about this change.

Below is the 3/31/16 Spectrum Investor® Update.

Brian White, CFP®

Spectrum Investor® Update 3/31/16

Morningstar Category Averages 1st Qtr 1 Year 3 Year Intermediate-Term Bond 2.48% 0.64% 1.90%

Moderate Allocation 0.87% -2.86% 5.23%

Large Cap Value 1.29% -2.94% 8.16%

Large Cap Blend 0.29% -1.97% 9.63%

Large Cap Growth -2.46% -2.39% 11.07%

Mid Cap Value 2.44% -5.46% 7.83%

Mid Cap Blend 1.25% -6.71% 7.79%

Mid Cap Growth -1.81% -7.71% 8.39%

Small Cap Value 2.18% -6.88% 6.06%

Small Cap Blend 0.55% -8.11% 6.42%

Small Cap Growth -4.32% -11.64% 6.35%

Foreign Large Blend -1.97% -7.96% 1.74%

Real Estate 4.68% 2.66% 9.43%

Natural Resources 5.31% -17.37% -8.05%

Source: Morningstar, 3 yr return is annualized. Morningstar classifies categories by underlying holdings and then calculates the average per-

formance of the category. Past performance is not an indication of

future results. Returns in Blue = Best, Returns in Red = Worst

DOW: 17,685 10 Yr T-Note: 1.79%

NASDAQ: 4869 Inflation Rate: 1.0% (2/2016)

S&P 500: 2059 Unemployment Rate: 5.0% (3/2016)

Barrel of Oil: $38.11 Source: Morningstar, bls.gov, eia.gov The Dow Jones Industrial Average is comprised of 30 stocks that are major factors in

their industries and widely held by individuals and institutional investors. The Stand-ard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization weighted index of 500 stocks designed to

measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggre-

gate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The NASDAQ

Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and non-U.S. based common

stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The market value, the last sale price

multiplied by total shares outstanding, is calculated throughout the trading day, and is

related to the total value of the Index. Indices cannot be invested into directly.

Spectrum Investor®

Newsletter

SM

IRS Indexed Limits for 2015: 401(k), 403(b), 457 Plan Deferral Limit is $18,000. Catch-up Contribution limit is $6,000. Source: 401khelpcenter.com

3

The first four trading days of 2016 were the worst start to a year ever for

the U.S. stock market. Things have gotten better since then, but we con-

tinue to be taken on a rollercoaster ride into April (USA Today, 1/8/16).

With 24 hour news cycles airing one negative story after another and

social media amplifying the fear that those new programs create, it is

very easy to panic and sabotage your own retirement plan by making

impulsive decisions. The following are five strategies that can help you

keep a level-head when it feels as though there’s chaos all around.

Set retirement goals

It’s hard to know what you’ll be doing next week, let alone 30, 40 or 50

years from now, but the sooner you consider when you want to retire and

what type of lifestyle you’d like to live in retirement, the sooner you can

begin making that vision a reality. Fidelity says if you want to retire by

age 67 you should aim to have 10 times your income saved by then

(Fidelity Viewpoints, 3/16/16). For many people that is an overwhelming

figure to think about, but creating short-term goals can help make reach-

ing that figure feel less ominous. For example one times your income by

30, three times by 40 and so on.

Have a plan

Although past performance is not an indication of future results, market

downturns happen a lot and are often followed by recoveries. According

to Sam Stovall, the chief stock strategist at S&P Capital IQ, a multina-

tional financial information provider, “After a drop of 10% to 20%, it

typically takes just four months to break even.” As we explained in our

Market Volatility newsletter last August, since 1980, the stock market

(S&P 500 Index) has declined during every calendar year except four and

historically, market corrections (a drop of 10%-20%) occur every 12-16

months (LPL Weekly Market Commentary, 8/24/15). The lesson to learn

here is that it is important to be prepared and have a plan to help you

reach your retirement goals. According to HSBC retirement studies, on

average, those who get financial advice and have financial plans have

over three-and-a-half times more in retirement savings than those who do

neither (The Future of Retirement: The Power of Planning). If you get

nervous when the market goes down you may not be in the right invest-

ments for your time horizon (the number of years until you expect to

need the money), goals and risk tolerance.

Diversify and rebalance

One of the most important things you can do to help manage your risk

and help you stick to your plan is to diversify your assets into a variety of

different investment options. While diversification does not ensure that

you will make a profit or guarantee that you won’t lose money, it can

help soften the blow during volatile markets. Ideally, while some of your

investments are doing poorly, others will be doing well. An advisor at

Spectrum can help you determine the best mix of stock and bonds for you

and the one that will help you feel comfortable with your investments

when things get rocky again. Rebalancing goes hand-in-hand with diver-

sifying. Once you get a mix of investments that you feel at ease with,

you want to make sure they stay that way. Changes in the market can

cause your investments to get off track from how you originally wanted.

Let’s say, for example, the market had a really good run, you could end

up with more of your money in stocks than you planned on, opening

yourself up to more risk. At Spectrum, we recommend an annual review

of your investments. Historically, late April and early May are good

times to rebalance your portfolio.

Stay focused

Staying focused on your goals and strategies helps you to refrain from

making emotional decisions during volatile markets. According to Tim

Strauts, Senior Markets Research Analyst at Morningstar, “Performance

chasing is one of the biggest reasons investors underperform over the

long-term.” By understanding the negative impact that can result from

the desire to buy high and sell low, you can better prepare yourself to

stick to a long-term asset allocation through the markets’ ups and downs.

*Source: Morningstar® Investor Return™ captures how the average investor fared in a fund

over a period of time. It estimates the return earned collectively by all the investors in a fund.

Investor return, also known as dollar-weighted return, accounts for all cash inflows and out-

flows from purchases and sales and the growth in fund assets. Categories above represented

by Morningstar Category Averages: US OE Foreign Large Blend, US OE Intermediate-Term

Bond, US OE Large Blend. Cannot invest directly in a category average.

To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult

your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is

historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unman-

aged and cannot be invested into directly.

Angie Franzone

Spectrum Investor®

Newsletter

60% Stocks/40% Bonds Allocation vs. Indices Ending 3/31/16 15 Yr 10 Yr 5 Yr 3 Yr 1 Yr Index Definition

Real Est. 11.50%

Lg. Growth 8.48%

Lg. Growth 13.06%

Lg. Growth 13.96%

Real Est. 4.88%

Real Estate: DJ US

Select REIT Index TR Mid Cap

9.41% Mid Cap

7.78% Real Est. 11.99%

Lg. Blend

11.82%

Lg. Growth 3.53%

Large Growth: S&P 500 Growth TR

Sm. Value 8.22%

Lg. Blend

7.01%

Lg. Blend

11.58%

Real Est. 11.09%

Bonds 1.96%

Int.-Term Bonds: Bar-

Cap Aggregate Bond Sm. Blend

7.65% 60/40 6.26%

Lg. Value 9.99%

Mid Cap 9.46%

Lg. Blend

1.78%

Large Blend: S&P 500 TR

60/40 7.38%

Real Est. 6.17%

Mid Cap 9.52%

Lg. Value 9.45%

Lg. Value -0.32%

Large Value: S&P 500 Value TR

Sm. Growth 6.86%

Sm. Growth 6.00%

Sm. Growth 7.70%

Sm. Growth 7.91%

60/40 -1.71%

60/40: 60% Diversified

Stocks/40% Bonds Lg. Growth

6.56% Lg. Value

5.42% Sm. Blend

7.20% Sm. Blend

6.84% Mid Cap -3.60%

Mid Cap Blend: S&P MidCap 400 TR

Lg. Blend

5.99%

Sm. Blend 5.26%

Sm. Value 6.67%

Sm. Value 5.73%

Sm. Value -7.72%

Small Value: Russell

2000 Value TR Nat. Res.

5.42% Bonds 4.90%

60/40 6.20%

60/40 5.56%

Intl. -8.27%

International: MSCI EAFE NR

Lg. Value 5.29%

Sm. Value 4.42%

Bonds 3.78%

Bonds 2.50%

Sm. Blend -9.76%

Small Blend:

Russell 2000 TR Bonds 4.97%

Intl. 1.80%

Intl. 2.29%

Intl. 2.23%

Sm. Growth -11.84%

Small Growth: Russell

2000 Growth TR Intl.

4.35% Nat. Res.

1.22% Nat. Res. -6.61%

Nat. Res. -7.59%

Nat. Res. -18.30%

Natural Res: S&P North

Am. Nat. Resources TR Annualized returns. The above indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Diversification cannot protect from market risk. Source: Morningstar. *60/40 Allocation: 40% Bonds, 6% Lg. Value, Blend, & Growth, 12% Mid Cap, 6% Sm. Value & Blend, 6% Intl., Nat. Res., and Real Est. Allocation, excludes Small Growth. Rebalanced annually on Apr 1.©2016 Spectrum Investment Advisors, Inc. Please see important disclosures on the final page of this newsletter.

SM

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

International Stocks US Intermediate-Term Bonds

US Stocks

The Average Investor Has Underperformed*10 Year Returns Ending 3.31.16

Average Investment Return Average Investor Return

4

Did you know that the average American gains one pound of weight

every year after the age of 25? Did you know that the average American

drinks 3½ cups of soda and sugared beverages every day? Did you know

Americans eat 1 million chickens per hour?! Today’s average American

woman is now the same weight as the average 1960s man. She’s 166

pounds. Of course, the average man today is heavier than the average

1960s man, too. An average of 30 pounds bigger, tipping the scales at

195. Remember, that’s an average. A lot of Americans are bigger, much

bigger. Manufacturers of crash-test dummies have had to redesign their

products as a result.

Old models repre-

sented a person

weighing 169

pounds. New mod-

els will simulate a

human at 270

pounds.

Have you ever been

on one of those

small commuter

flights where they

asked passengers to

move around to

different seats to

help redistribute the

weight before take

off? I have. We

may start to see

more of that if our

waistlines continue to expand. By the way, I hear Uzbekistan is lovely

this time of year. If you fly their national airline, you can get a taste to-

day of what may be coming soon to your own local airport. Now they

not only weigh your carry-on luggage, but ask passengers to get on the

scale as well. But they’re not the first. Samoa Air has had a “pay-what-

you weigh” policy since 2012. Can Jet-Blue be far behind?

So here’s some news you can use. Researchers are starting to find that

the normal bacteria found in your intestines may influence your ability to

lose weight and keep it off. Scientists recently reported in the British

Journal of Nutrition that overweight women who took a probiotic supple-

ment (of the bacteria Lactobacillus rhamnosus) lost twice as much weight

and had an easier time of keeping it off compared to women taking a

placebo. A study done of twins found that those that were lean had a

much greater diversity of gut bacteria than their overweight siblings, and

recent research found that when bacteria from overweight humans was

introduced into the intestines of normal weight mice, the mice became

fat. When bacteria from lean humans was introduced into mice, the mice

stayed lean. How do bacteria in your gut affect your waistline? Probably

through a lot of mechanisms, but they seem to affect appetite, cravings,

and how well your calories are absorbed and burned up.

So what can you do? Foods that naturally contain bacteria, like yogurt,

can help. Just make sure it says it contains “live active cultures,” and that

the sugar is low. Taking a probiotic supplement is also good; the kinds

that require refrigeration are probably best. But what you normally eat

everyday can also greatly affect your gut bacteria profile. A more plant-

based, less processed food diet tends to give you a healthier bacteria pop-

ulation that will probably contribute to easier weight control. We still

have a lot to learn. Maybe someday flight attendants will ask you if

you’d like “peanuts, pretzels, or probiotics.” At least that way you won’t

have to weigh yourself with your luggage.

David Meinz, MS, RD, FADA, CSP

Spectrum Investor®

Newsletter

SM

David will be rounding out the speakers at our next Retirement Plan In-

vestment Seminar, co-sponsored with the WICPA, on June 22, 2016. In

the meantime, you can check out David’s new book entitled, “The Ene-

my Within”, which focuses on how to decrease your risk of heart disease

and cancer. You can order this book at www.davidmeinz.com.

Important Disclosures:

David Meinz is not affiliated with Spectrum Investment Advisors. Opinions voiced in this newsletter are for general information only and are not intended to provide

specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which invest-

ment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to invest-ing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

The 2016 PLANSPONSOR Retirement Plan Adviser Large Team of the Year

finalists are advisers who have a majority of business revenue derived from em-

ployer-sponsored retirement plans, who serve as a fiduciary, are committed to fee-based compensation and are using outcome-based metrics of plan success with

clients. A large team is a practice with 11-25 people (including advisers and

support staff. In 2016 Spectrum was one of five finalists in the Large Team cate-gory. out of 40 companies reviewed by PLANSPONSOR. The rating is not indica-

tive of the advisors’ future performance.

Benchmark Disclosures: Morningstar Category Averages: Morningstar classifies

mutual funds into peer groups based on their holdings. The Category Average

calculates the average return of mutual funds that fall within the category during the given time period. The following indexes and their definitions provide an

approximate description of the type of investments help by mutual funds in each

respective Morningstar Category. One cannot invest directly in an index or cate-gory average. Real Estate: DJ US Select REIT Index – Measures the performance

of publicly traded real estate trusts (REITs) and REIT-like securities to serve as

proxy for direct real estate investment. Large Cap Growth: S&P 500 Growth

Index – Measures the performance of growth stocks drawn from the S&P 500

index by dividing it into growth and value segments by using three factors: sales

growth, the ratio of earnings change to price and momentum. Intermediate-Term

Bonds: Barclays US Agg Bond Index – Measures the performance of investment

grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market, including Treasur-ies, government-related and corporate securities, MBS, ABS and CMBS. Large

Cap Blend: S&P 500 Index – A market capitalization-weighted index composed

of the 500 most widely held stocks whose assets and/or revenue are based in the US. Large Cap Value: S&P 500 Value Index – Measures the performance of value

stocks of the S&P 500 index by dividing into growth and value segments by using

three factors: sales growth, the ratio of earnings change to price and momentum. Mid Cap Blend: S&P MidCap 400 Index – Measures the performance of mid-

sized US companies, reflecting the distinctive risk and return characteristics of

this market segment. Small Cap Blend: Russell 2000 Index – Measures the perfor-mance of the small-cap segment of the US equity universe. It includes approxi-

mately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap

and current index membership. Small Cap Value: Russell 2000 Value Index – Measures the performance of small-cap value segment of Russell 2000 companies

with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. Small Cap

Growth: Russell 2000 Growth Index – Measures the performance of small-cap growth segment of Russell 2000 companies with higher price-to-value ratios and

higher forecasted growth values. Foreign Large Cap Blend: MSCI EAFE NR

Index –This Europe, Australasia, and Far East index is a market-capitalization-weighted index of 21 non-US, developed country indexes. Natural Resources: S&P

North American Natural Resources Index – Measures the performance of US

traded securities classified by the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) as energy and materials excluding the chemicals industry and steel but including

energy companies, forestry services, producers of pulp and paper and plantations.

David Meinz presents keynotes and

workshops to businesses and associations

around the US and Canada based on his

new book, Wealthy, Healthy & Wise: How

to Make Sure Your Money and Your

Health Last As Long As You Do. For more

information on his speaking services, or to

order an autographed copy of his book,

visit www.davidmeinz.com

5

Source: Compustat, FactSet, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of the 500 most widely held stocks whose assets and/or revenue are based in the US; it’s often used as a proxy for the stock market. Dividend yield is calculated as consensus

estimates of dividends for the next 12 months, divided by most recent price, as provided by Compustat. Forward price to earnings ratio is a bottom-up calculation

based on the most recent S&P 500 Index price, divided by consensus estimates for earnings in the next 12 months (NTM), and is provided by FactSet Market Aggre-

gates. Returns are cumulative and based on S&P 500 Index price movement only, and do not include the reinvestment of dividends. Past performance is not indicative

of future returns. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Guide to the Markets—U.S. Data are as of March 31, 2016.

The bull market celebrated its seventh birthday on Wednesday, March 9, 2016, representing the third longest bull market in history. As the top chart

indicates, even though the bull market is up 204% since March 9, 2009, the P/E ratio remains close to average at 16.6. The table within the chart is a

good comparison of the history of the yield on the S&P 500 vs. the 10-year treasury rate. As you can see by the bottom chart, the latest bull market is

lacking in strength vs. previous bull markets, which will likely keep the Fed from having to increase interest rates at a rapid pace (Barron’s, 1/18/16).

Source: BEA, NBER, JPMorgan Asset Management. *Chart assumes expansion started in July 2009 and continued through March 2016, lasting 81 months so far. Data for length of economic expansions and recessions obtained from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

Guide to the Markets—U.S. Data are as of March 31, 2016.

6

Source: FactSet, Standard & Poor’s, JPMorgan Asset Management. Index. The S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of the 500 most wide-ly held stocks whose assets and/or revenue are based in the US; it’s often used as a proxy for the stock market. Returns are based on price index only and do not include

dividends. Intra-year drops refers to the largest market drops from peak to trough during the year. For illustrative purposes only. Returns shown are calendar year returns

from 1980 to 2015, except for 2016, which is year to date. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into direct-

ly. Guide to the Markets—U.S. Data are as of March 31, 2016.

The top chart illustrates the comparison of the intra-year declines vs. the year-end return of the S&P 500 Index. The market bottomed on February 11,

2016, down 11%; it still finished slightly up for the quarter. A good lesson in staying the course. The bottom chart is a good indicator of how quickly the

Fed will need to raise interest rates. Today, wage growth is accelerating, but it is still well below previous cycles. The point at which unemployment and

wage growth meet, is generally a catalyst for the Fed to rapidly accelerate interest rates.

Source: BLS, FactSet, JPMorgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets—U.S. Data are as of March 31, 2016.