small business lending trends
DESCRIPTION
The US small business segment continues to struggle amid economic uncertainty. However, there are bright spots in small business lending trends. This presentation examines loans outstanding, delinquencies, bankruptcies and sentiment.TRANSCRIPT
2013 Small Business Credit Trends
Patricia Hines, CTP
Director, Financial Services Industry Marketing
GXS
Slide 2 © 2013 GXS, Inc.
Small businesses confidence dips in early 2013 after 2012 gains
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13
February 2013: 90.8
January 2006: 101.6
NFIB Optimism Index
Sources: NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Quarterly report
Slide 3 © 2013 GXS, Inc.
Sources: Federal Reserve System H.8 Release
Commercial and industrial loans up almost 14% over the past year
$17 $17 $16 $16 $15 $14 $14 $14 $14 $14
$16 $15 $13
$12 $12 $13 $13 $14 $15 $15
$33 $32
$30 $28 $27 $27 $28 $28 $29 $30
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12
Commercial real estate Commercial and industrial
Slide 4 © 2013 GXS, Inc.
Small business loans outstanding flat with a continued increase in volume
Sources: FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile, Loans to Small Businesses
Amount outstanding (USD in billions)
Number of loans outstanding (in thousands)
120.3 120.2
46.8 46.9
115.7 116.7
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
12/31/2011 12/31/2012
282.7 283.7 +0.4%
19.6 20.8
0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
12/31/2011 12/31/2012
20.4 21.7
+6.3%
> $100K $100k to $250K $250K to $1M
Slide 5 © 2013 GXS, Inc.
Delinquency rates continue to improve for all loan types except residential real estate
11.2%
10.6% 9.1%
4.6%
3.6%
6.7%
2.8% 2.4% 3.8%
2.6%
1.2%
4.4%
1.2% 0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12
Residential real estate loans
Commercial real estate loans
Credit card loans
Consumer loans
Commercial & industrial loans
Sources: Federal Reserve Statistical Release
Slide 6 © 2013 GXS, Inc.
$46$51
$55$60
$67$71
$75$79 $82 $85
$92$95 $96
$0.3$0.4 $0.5
$0.3 $0.3
$1.0
$0.5
$1.3
$1.3
$2.3
$2.1
$2.1
$1.9
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Unpaid principal balance Charge off amount
Charge-offs (USD billions)Principal balance (USD billions)
In 2012, Small Business Administration lending jumped up with charge-offs leveling off
Est.
Sources: Small Business Administration budget and performance reports
Slide 7 © 2013 GXS, Inc.
-70%
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13
Small C&I loan demand Small C&I loan standards
Large and medium C&I loan demand Large and medium C&I loan standards
Loan demand
Loan standards
Commercial and industrial (C&I) loan demand reflects economic uncertainty
Quarterly percentage change
Sources: Federal Reserve Board senior loan officer opinion survey
Slide 8 © 2013 GXS, Inc.
2.4%
3.6%
4.0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
3Q04 2Q05 1Q06 4Q06 3Q07 2Q08 1Q09 4Q09 3Q10 2Q11 1Q12 4Q12
More than $1,000,000 $100,000–$1,000,000 Less than $100,000
Spreads narrowing, especially for large C&I loans
3.3%
1.4%
2.1%
3.2%
4.0%
2.0%
1.6%
Sources: Federal Reserve survey of terms of business lending
Spread percentage
Slide 9 © 2013 GXS, Inc.
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13
Business bankruptcy filings Unemployment percentage
Unemployment percentage Number of filings (000s)
Es
Business bankruptcy filings a bright spot in the picture for small business risk
4.7%
10.0%
7.7%
Sources: American Bankruptcy Institute, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Est.
Slide 10 © 2013 GXS, Inc.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Up to $300M $300M to $1B $1B to $10B $10B to $20B Over $20B
2009 2010 2011 2012
Smaller banks continue to struggle with non-performing commercial loans
3.9%
Ratio of non-performing commercial loans to total
commercial loans (%)
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
0.7%
Slide 11 © 2013 GXS, Inc.
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2009 Actual 2010 Actual 2011 Actual2012
Projection 2013 Forecast
DevelopingAsia
LATAM
CIS*
United States
Japan
Euro Area
2012 did not meet expectations, recovery stalls for 2013
3.8%
0.8%
3.9%
7.8%
2.2%
*CIS = Commonwealth of Independent States (former Soviet Republics)
1.6%
Sources: International Monetary Fund World Economic Update January 2013
Percent change in GDP
Slide 12 © 2013 GXS, Inc.
Trade payables and receivables at 12-year lows
11.7%
14.1%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Trade Payables Trade Receivables
Recessionary Periods
Percent of company net worth
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Slide 13 © 2013 GXS, Inc.
• Risk metrics continue to show a mixed bag, but underlying improvement
seems to be taking hold
• Small Business Credit Index points to improving environment for small
businesses by end of 2013, and continuing into the next couple of years
• Small business lenders continue to lend to borrowers who meet their
desired risk/reward profile
• Close monitoring needed to identify emerging adverse trends and
minimize loan losses
• Investments in credit analytics and
monitoring tools continue to pay off,
reflected in decreases in non-performing busi ness
loans
Parting thoughts
Slide 14 © 2013 GXS, Inc.
Thank You and Q&A
Patty Hines, CTP Director, Financial Services Industry
Marketing
E-mail: [email protected]