small hydro resource mapping in madagascar p 1...

Small Hydro Resource Mapping in Madagascar

PHASE 1 REPORT: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY [ENGLISH VERSION] March 2015

This report was prepared by SHER Ingénieurs-Conseils s.a. in association with Mhylab, under contract to The World Bank. It is one of several outputs from the small hydro Renewable Energy Resource Mapping and Geospatial Planning [Project ID: P145350]. This activity is funded and supported by the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP), a multi-donor trust fund administered by The World Bank, under a global initiative on Renewable Energy Resource Mapping. Further details on the initiative can be obtained from the ESMAP website. This document is an interim output from the above-mentioned project. Users are strongly advised to exercise caution when utilizing the information and data contained, as this has not been subject to full peer review. The final, validated, peer reviewed output from this project will be a Madagascar Small Hydro Atlas, which will be published once the project is completed.

Copyright © 2015 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK

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This work is a product of the consultants listed, and not of World Bank staff. The findings, interpretations,

and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of

Executive Directors, or the governments they represent.

The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work and accept no

responsibility for any consequence of their use. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other

information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank

concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.

The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its

knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for non-commercial purposes as long as full

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addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433,

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would appreciate receiving a copy of the publication that uses this publication for its source sent in care of

the address above, or to [email protected].

http://www.sher.be/

http://www.mhylab.com/

http://www.esmap.org/re_mapping

http://www.worldbank.org/

English version

IN ASSOCIATION WITH

Phase 1 – Preliminary resource mapping – Final Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Renewable Energy Resource Mapping: Small Hydro – Madagascar [P145350]

March 2015

FINAL OUTPUT

The “Renewable Energy Mapping: Small Hydro - Madagascar” reporting related to the Activities 1-

2-3 (ACTIVITY 1: Data collection and production of a Hydro Atlas, review and validation of small

hydro potential / ACTIVITY 2: Small hydro electrification planning / ACTIVITY 3: Small hydro

prioritization and workshop), is organized as followed:

SMALL HYDRO MADAGASCAR - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

ANNEX A - SMALL HYDRO MAPPING REPORT

ANNEX B - SMALL HYDRO PLANNING REPORT

ANNEX C - SITE VISITS REPORT

ANNEX D - HYDRO ATLAS REPORT

In addition to the reporting, a geographical information system (GIS) was delivered on a CD-ROM

support. The CD-ROM includes the following data :

GIS DATABASE (in QuantumGIS, including layers relating to the physical, socio-

environmental, infrastructural contexts of the existing and potential sites)

KMZ files (readable in GoogleEarth, presenting the key figures of the GIS database)

Excel spreadsheet (with the main characteristics of the 33 potential sites visited)

Acknowledgement

This report was prepared by a consultant consortium including SHER Ingénieurs-Conseils, Mhylab

and Artelia Madagascar. The team was led by Gérard Chassard and Pierre Smits with the support

of Gérard Malengé, Serge Lala Rakotoson, Thomas Dubois, Faly Rabemanantsoa, Quentin Goor

and Bernard Rakotoaribeby.

The work and the report were supported by the World Bank team, led by Vonjy Rakotondramanana

and Rikard Liden, and the Client team at

.

The results presented in this report are based on extensive input data and information from a large

number of stakeholders, who are highly acknowledged for their contributions. Major contributors

have been the , ORE, Jirama, ADER and

.

Valuable feedback on the draft report was given at a workshop in Antananarivo on March 10-11,

2015. Among the stakeholders at the workshop were representatives from

, ORE, Jirama, ADER and .

This project has been made possible through funding from the Energy Sector Management

Assistance Program (ESMAP), a global knowledge and technical assistance program administered

by the World Bank and supported by 11 bilateral donors, and is part of a global ESMAP initiative in

support of renewable energy mapping.

Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214

SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - March 2015 Page 5 de 38

Correspondence Table between the terms of reference and reporting and the ESMAP phases:

ESMAP General Phasing Correspondence

with ESMAP-Small Hydro Madagascar ToR

Phase 1 Preliminary resource mapping output based on satellite and site visits

Activity 1 – Data collection and production of Hydro Atlas, review and validation of small hydro potential Activity 2 – Small hydro electrification planning Activity 3 – Small hydro prioritisation and workshop

Phase 2 Ground-based data collection

Activity 4 - Data collection and final validation (from the REVISED TERMS OF REFERENCES FOR THE ACTIVITY 4) : A – Review of previously studied small hydropower sites B – Data collection and final validation C – Pre-feasibility study of two priority sites for small hydropower development

Phase 3 Production of a validated resources atlas that combine satellite and ground-based data

D – Support to the Ministry of Energy to build capacity and take ownership of the created GIS database for hydropower E – Updated Small Hydropower Hydro Planning and Mapping Reports for Madagascar

SHER Ingénieurs-conseils s.a. Rue J. Matagne, 15

5020 Namur – Belgium

Phone : +32 81 32 79 80

Fax : +32 81 32 79 89

www.sher.be

Project Manager: Julien LEFEVERE

Référence SHER : MAD04

Phone : +32 (0) 81 327 982

Fax : +32 (0) 81 327 989

E-mail : [email protected]

Rev.n° Date Content Drafted Verified

0 01/2015 Executive Summary- FINAL English version

Pierre SMITS Julien LEFEVERE

In case of discrepancy, the French version prevails

SHER INGÉNIEURS-CONSEILS S.A.

IS ISO 9001 CERTIFIED

mailto:[email protected]



Abbreviations and acronyms

ADEME Agence de Maîtrise de l’Energie

ADER Agence de Développement de l’Electrification Rurale

AO Appel d’Offre

APD Avant-Projet Détaillé

APIPA Autorité pour la Protection contre les Inondations de la Plaine d’Antananarivo

APS Avant-Projet Sommaire

BAD Banque Africaine de Développement

BDHM Banque de Données Hydro pluviométriques de Madagascar

BEI Banque Européenne d’Investissement

BM Banque Mondiale

BRGM Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières

CIRAD Centre International de Recherche pour l’Agriculture et Développement

DGE Direction de l’Energie

DGM Direction Générale de la Météorologie

DGRE Direction de la Gestion des Ressources en Eau

EDM Electricité de Madagascar

ENR ENergie Renouvelable

ERD Electrification Rurale Décentralisée

ESF Electriciens Sans frontières

ESMAP Energy Sector Management Assistance Program

EU European Union

FAD Fonds Africains de Développement

FMO Société néerlandaise pour le financement du développement

FONDEM Fondation Energies pour le Monde

FTM FOIBEN-TAOSARINTANIN'I MADAGASIKARA

FWC Framework Contract

GEOSIM Logiciel de planification de l'Electrification Rurale

GES Gaz à Effet de Serre

GIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH

GRDC Global Runoff Data Centre

GRET Groupe de Recherche et d’Echanges Technologiques

GTE Groupe de Travail Energie

GTZ/GIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische / Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH)

GVEP Global Village Energy Partnership

GWh Giga Watt heure, Milliards de kWh ou Millions de MW

HFF Henri Fraise & Fils (société)

IED Innovation Energie Développement

IEPF Institut de l’Energie et de l’Environnement de la Francophonie

INSTAT Institut National de la Statistique

IPP’s Independent Power Producer’s

IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency

JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency



JIRAMA Jiro sy Rano Malagasy (Société d'électricité et d'eau de Madagascar)

kW kilo Watt

kWh kilo Watt heure

LCOE Levelized Cost Of Electricity

MAP Madagascar Action Plan

MdE Ministère de l’Energie

MDE Maîtrise De l’Energie

MGA Malagasy Ariary

MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency

MNT Modèle numérique de terrain

MW Mega Watt

MWh Mega Watt heure

NEPAD NEw Partnership for Africa's Development

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

ONE Office National de l’Environnement

ONG Organisation Non Gouvernementale

ORE Office de Régulation de l’Electricité

ORSTOM Office de la recherche scientifique et technique outre-mer

PADR Plan d’Action pour le Développement Rural

PIC Projet Pôles Intégrés de Croissance

PNUD Programme des Nations Unies pour le Développement

PPP Partenariat Public Privé

PV Solaire Photovoltaïque

RFE Rainfall estimates

RIAED Réseau International d’Accès aux Energies Renouvelables

RTA Rio Tinto Alcan

SE Système Electrique

SFI Société Financière Internationale

SIG Système d’Information Géographique

SNAT Stratégie Nationale d’Aménagement du Territoire

TWh Tera Watt heure

WB World Bank

WWF World Wildlife Fund



Table of Content

1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 10

1.1 General context of the ESMAP – FWC project ......................................................................... 10

1.2 Objectives, results and activities of the study ......................................................................... 10

2 Small hydropower development: an opportunity for Madagascar .................... 12

2.1 Power sector and current generation mix ............................................................................... 12

2.2 Strengths and weaknesses of small hydropower ..................................................................... 13

2.3 Recommended role for small hydro ....................................................................................... 17

3 Small hydropower potential in Madagascar ..................................................... 19

3.1 Sites identified from the bibliography .................................................................................... 19

3.2 New identified sites - SiteFinder contribution: detection tool for hydropower sites ................. 20

3.3 Integration of the previously identified and studied sites and the new potential sites in a single

database .......................................................................................................................................... 21

4 Prioritization of promising small hydropower sites .......................................... 23

4.1 Identification and selection process of promising sites............................................................ 23

4.2 Selection results and portfolio of 1-20 MW hydropower projects ............................................ 24

4.3 Most promising sites for short-term investments ................................................................... 25

5 Prioritized sites for development in the short term .......................................... 28

6 GIS as a tool for transparent development of hydropower potential ................ 37

Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 - Introduction -


Introduction

RENEWABLE ENERGY

A way for Madagascar to green their energy portfolio and lower

the cost of power



1 Introduction

1.1 GENERAL CONTEXT OF THE ESMAP – FWC PROJECT

ESMAP (Energy Sector Management Assistance Program) is a technical assistance program

managed by the World Bank and supported by 11 bilateral donors. ESMAP launched in January

2013 as an initiative to support the efforts of countries to improve knowledge of their

renewable energy resources (REN), to establish appropriate institutional frameworks for the

development of REN, and to provide "free access" to geospatial resources and data. This

initiative will also support the IRENA-GlobalAtlas1 program by improving data availability and

quality, through an interactive atlas.

This study, "Renewable Energy Resource Mapping: Small Hydro Madagascar", is part of a

technical assistance project funded by ESMAP and implemented by the World Bank in

Madagascar (the "Client"), which aims to support mapping resources and geospatial planning

for small hydropower. It is conducted in close coordination with the Ministry of Energy, the

Electricity Regulation Office (ERO), Development Agency of Rural Electrification (DARE) and

JIRAMA.

1.2 OBJECTIVES, RESULTS AND ACTIVITIES OF THE STUDY

The objectives of the study are:

1. Improving the quality and availability of information about the hydropower resource in Madagascar;

2. A detailed review and update of Madagascar’s small hydro potential (1-20 MW), and

3. Recommendations for implementation of small hydro within the framework of energy sector planning.

Expected results from the study are:

1. A geographical database (GIS) of data from the study;

2. A thematic atlas on hydropower in Madagascar with a particular emphasis on small hydro, and

3. Recommendations for developing the small hydro sector in Madagascar.

The activities of the study are:

Activity 1: Data collection and production of Hydro Atlas, review and validation of small

hydro potential

Activity 2: Small hydro electrification planning

Activity 3: Small hydro prioritisation and workshop

Activity 4: Data collection and final validation (HydroAtlas / campaign of hydrological measurement / extra geological and local environment studies)

1 http://globalatlas.irena.org/



Small hydropower development: an opportunity for Madagascar

Smaller sites have the advantage of being faster to develop (about

2.5 to 4 years), able to progressively meet electricity demand, and

easier to mobilize financing for than larger sites

Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 - Small hydropower development: an opportunity for Madagascar -


2 Small hydropower development: an opportunity for

Madagascar

2.1 POWER SECTOR AND CURRENT GENERATION MIX

Madagascar has enormous energy resources, particularly renewable ones (hydraulic, solar,

wind, biomass), but national energy consumption is still very low, and is dominated by wood

energy and its by-products. Madagascar imports all of its petrol products, and energy costs are

too high to effectively contribute to social and economic development of the country.

Today, very few people in Madagascar have access to modern energy sources, and this is a

significant impediment to development. Furthermore, people who don’t have access must rely

on lesser quality, ineffective and often polluting energy sources, for which they spend much

more than the few with such access. Households not connected to the electrical network

spend on average between 2 and 10 times more for less lighting than those who are

connected.

Madagascar’s national electricity infrastructure is outdated, and the existing production and

distribution facilities are insufficient to satisfy present growing demands. Some production

facilities are saturated and are highly exposed to bad weather, in spite of a general abundance

of un-exploited renewable energy resources in the country. This situation presents a handicap

to the country’s development and a blockage to the competitiveness of export industries. In

farming, electrical energy demand (e.g. for pump stations for irrigation) is still negligible.

The Malagasy Government has identified the energy sector as a core part of its global

economic reform program, aimed at increasing economic growth by drawing on the

momentum and initiative of private investments. The lack of fundamental infrastructure

within the country is a major roadblock in these efforts. To overcome this, particularly with

regards to energy, the government needs to accelerate energy access programs, emphasising

private sector renewable energy developments with beneficial community participation, . Such

action would translate into energy cost reductions and increases in productivity.

Beyond economic goals, the pursuing of a balanced energy policy in Madagascar would also

have extremely important implications for environmental protection and community health,

through pursuing of sustainable and sensitively designed renewable energy plants.

Amongst others these efforts consist of:

promoting modern use of energy with efficient equipment,

encouraging the use of renewable energy to progressively replace traditional sources

of energy.

For the majority of Malagasy households, wood is the main energy source for daily needs such

as lighting and cooking. This is a cause of deforestation, which causes broad knock-on effects

to the environment. The acceleration of wood energy’s replacement by thermal production



and other sources, such as butane gas, biomass (biofuel), solar power, wind power and

hydropower, must go hand in hand with broadening access to electricity.

With the liberalization of the electricity sector in 1999, the government has introduced a large

number of structural reforms, including the creation of the OER, ADER and FNE, as well as

numerous development programs such as the Growth Integrated Poles project (PIC) , which

encourages private investments and public-private partnerships in infrastructure.

With regards to electricity production, Madagascar has a total installed generation capacity of

552MW, 162MW and 389MW of which are produced by hydropower and thermal (HFO &

diesel) respectively. The rest is produced by other sources of renewable energy such as wind,

solar and biomass. Out of this installed capacity of 552MW, only 303MW are actually

operational and available (June 2014), equal to 54.9%.

In June 2014, the installed capacity from hydropower was distributed between 11 major

hydropower plants, with plant capacities ranging from 0.45MW in Manandray, Fianarantsoa

province, to 91MW in Andekaleka, Toamasina province.

2.2 STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF SMALL HYDROPOWER

3 types of project connections are present in Madagascar:

Interconnected grid (Jirama)

Isolated grid or stand-alone system (Jirama/Private)

Small remote network powered by a dedicated source of production



INTERCONNECTED GRIDS (RI) (Jirama)

Strengths of small hydropower (1-20MW) Weaknesses of small hydropower (1-20MW)

Opportunity for clustered developments:

Small hydro projects can be developed close to existing HV grid projects (RI): easy evacuation of energy, to strengthen the grid.

Positive impact on GHG emissions: Participation in reducing greenhouse gas emissions to achieve the long-term objectives.

Potentially eligible for CDM credits:

Improved profitability of projects if they have access to CDM credits from the World Bank.

Low investment costs and reduced barriers to funding:

Small hydro projects that have competitive production costs with larger projects require a much lower investment cost. Therefore, the conditions of access to financing for these smaller facilities are easier.

Shorter development cycle: Duration of development (including resource studies for funding) is shorter than for large hydro. Hence projects smaller than 20MW can enhance RI production in the shorter-term.

Competitive cost of production compared to thermal: Opportunity to substitute thermal energy production at a lesser cost.

Energy independence: substitution of some thermal energy by small hydro reduces the need to import petroleum products, which are expensive and vulnerable to international market price fluctuations.

Reduced environmental and social impacts compared to large hydro projects.

Flexibility in maintenance: The impact of maintenance will overall have a lesser impact to national electricity output compared with for large hydropower projects. In addition, proper planning of this maintenance allows for greater flexibility.

Large hydro is generally preferred in national master plans: large hydro projects are regularly favored in national master plans over smaller projects. In Madagascar however, even projects of 1-20 MW can make a significant contribution to the country’s energy mix.

Potential saturation of the grid: smaller projects are less able to afford HV network enhancements once the grid is saturated.

Base power: small hydro projects usually have only limited storage capacity (tank) to allow for peak production.

Recommendations

Promote short-term development projects with a capacity up to 20MW: particularly projects closest to the grid and with existing access which have low production costs and controllable hydrological and socio-environmental risks related to their development

Creation of a Master Plan that covers all three of the interconnected grids (RIA, RIF, RIT). Such a plan would enable a comparison to be made between various planning scenarios, taking into account the economic benefits of the gradual introduction of more small hydro projects versus a single large project, and the best distribution of economic opportunities between the 3 interconnection grids.



ISOLATED GRIDS (Jirama/Private)


Adequacy of the supply and demand: The size of small hydropower projects is generally better suited to local demand.

Energy supply to remote centres that would not benefit the development of the energy produced by large hydropower projects, since transmission and distribution lines would not be developed as far as these remote networks and centres.

Ability to obtain financial support (Concessionary finance, subsidies at low interest rates) given the capital-intensive nature of hydroelectric projects.

Complex Planning: Complexity of planning networks of developments in the medium-term, given a significant number of potential sites and development opportunities, but no prior indications of which types or configurations of generation are to be used

Network management complexity in the case of very high penetration of intermittent renewable energy: small hydropower by itself, without a regulating reservoir, cannot adequately manage intermittent production of other RE sources such as solar and wind power.

Recommendations

Put in place productive investment planning necessary for the development of small remote generation centres which take into account the optimal technology for that location (hydro, wind, solar biomass, thermal).

Look for small hydropower projects close remote centres and at competitive cost compared to thermal units.

Provide, where possible, phasing of the technical development of small hydropower projects according to demand (eg in the number of penstocks and turbines).

Invest in the development and rehabilitation of roads and rural tracks that would reduce the investment costs for the development of small hydro projects and thereby strengthen their competitiveness against large hydro.



SMALL REMOTE NETWORK (powered by a single production source)


Ability to reduce development costs: Possible simplifying of the design to minimize production costs.

Adequacy of supply and demand: Size of small hydropower projects generally better suited to local demand

Power supply to remote centres that would not benefit from the energy produced by large hydro projects, as transmission and distribution lines would not be developed as far as these remote networks and centers

Availability of financial aid (grants, subsidies at low interest rates) given the capital-intensive nature of hydropower projects.

Unsuitable in areas with significant periods of low flows: Difficulty in justifying mini hydropower projects where low flows are severe, which is the case especially in areas of lower and / or poorly distributed rainfall (South and West of Madagascar).

Complex planning: Complexity of undertaking the relevant studies across the entire country.

Recommendations

Promote the development of projects in areas that receive well distributed rainfall over the year.

Plan for ultimate grid integration of projects : When possible, in the development of projects plan to allow future connection to the network, so that these projects are not abandoned after connection to the main grid occurs.

Invest in the development and rehabilitation of roads and rural tracks that would reduce the investment costs for the development of small hydro projects and thereby strengthen their competitiveness against large hydro..



2.3 RECOMMENDED ROLE FOR SMALL HYDRO

The potential for small hydropower in Madagascar is large and mostly untapped.

Opportunities exist in all types of capacities. The development of this potential is nevertheless

hindered by the size of the country, the poor state of the road network and the scattered

distribution of urban areas. Soil degradation – erosion, gold panning, craft mining, and lavaka –

in certain regions (especially the South, mid-West and West) is widespread and could call into

question the viability and even feasibility of some hydropower projects. A watershed’s

deterioration as well as its sediment management should be taken into account in all future

hydropower projects, be they large or small. All new developments should generally be part of

an integrated watershed management effort in order to preserve the hydraulic heritage of

Madagascar.

Smaller sites have the advantage of being faster to develop (about 2.5 to 4 years), better able

to progressively meet growing electricity demand, and easier to mobilise financing for than

larger sites. The latter require longer development times (6 to 10 years), larger financing (>

450 MUSD) and face potential severe socio-environmental restrictions. Given the possibility of

replacing thermal energy, and the future demand increases on the RIA, small hydropower sites

will be attractive even if a larger site is built.

Future energy master plans in Madagascar need to better detail planning for all types of

energy (renewable and thermal) to encourage the development of projects and stimulate

investment, both public and private. Planning would need to address the interconnection

possibilities of the three existing networks (RIA, RIF, RIT) and to phase their development to

ensure that small hydropower sites maintain their utility in the context of larger

interconnection developments.

Future development plans should furthermore compile a complete portfolio of renewable

energy sites, drawing on information relating to known hydropower sites all over the country

and other renewable resources, and taking into account growing electricity demand. In every

case, the extension of the existing interconnected grids should be clearly highlighted and

shown on the map so as to not compromise the development of remote sites which are

generally smaller and less competitive.

The potential to develop one more river cascade systems with an upstream reservoir to enable

daily and yearly modulation should be analysed in detail. This type of development generally

enables the realisation of economies of scale (access, lines, etc.) and optimisation of hydraulic

infrastructures.



Small hydropower potential in Madagascar

Without economic or technical constraints Madagascar’s small

hydro resource is in excess of 350 sites between 1-20 MW, with a

total capacity of 1500 MW

Madagascar has significant potential for small hydropower, with

opportunities for both private and governmental investments

Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 - Small hydropower potential in Madagascar -


3 Small hydropower potential in Madagascar

The database of potential hydropower sites in Madagascar used in this study is made up of

two main information sources described below: (i) literature from a diverse range of studies

and lists and (ii) spatial analysis software that identifies river sections with high hydropower

potential based up rainfall and topography. This software is a tool developed by SHER

Ingénieurs-Conseils called SiteFinder.

3.1 SITES IDENTIFIED FROM THE BIBLIOGRAPHY

A synthesis of the existing literature was carried out through the analysis of a large number of

technical studies, strategic documents, master plans and lists of sites.

A résumé of analyses is found in the HydroAtlas Report as well as the five potential site lists

that were given to the Consultant. The table below summarises the distribution of potential

sites from each source of information.

Source Number of sites

Energy sector collective list2 501

Ministry of Energy 80

ADER 780

ORE (sites shared with other lists) 67

Complied studies/ literature 109

TOTAL 1537

(1470 if the ORE sites without coordinates

are removed)

These lists, which have sites in common, have geographical coordinates and some technical

information such as installed capacity, gross head, or a flow. It is important to remember that

the lists are mostly syntheses of several documents, the source documents in question being

not available. Very often, there are significant errors in location or technical parameters, and it

is impossible to find the origin of data in order to make verifications or corrections. Also, even

when provided, there are large uncertainties regarding the technical parameters since there is

no information on the underlying hypotheses that helped determine them.

2 List provided by the World Bank from their archive



3.2 NEW IDENTIFIED SITES - SITEFINDER CONTRIBUTION: DETECTION TOOL FOR HYDROPOWER SITES

The aim of SiteFinder is to detect natural waterfalls or steep river stretches, associated with a

flow, to identify the favourable locations for hydropower development. The program is mainly

based on a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and on a certain number of climatic/ hydrological

data.

The basic principle of the program is to detect waterfalls associated with a watershed. The

software must be adapted to the specific requirements of the study. First, the rivers’ mean

flow is estimated from the size of the waterbasin and/or average annual rainfall distribution

data. The software then computes the specific capacity for each river stretch. These results,

shown on the screen, enable the identification of potential sites. A result example (potential

site SF038), seen on the topographical map, is shown below.

A total of 575 sites have been detected by this method.

Origin Number of new sites

SiteFinder 575

(amongst which 412 have no equivalence with potential sites

from the lists)

Amongst these 575 sites detected, 163 sites had already been found in existing documents,

109 of which were classified in ADER’s list of potential sites. SiteFinder has therefore added a

total of 412 new sites to the database of potential hydropower sites.



3.3 INTEGRATION OF THE PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED AND STUDIED SITES AND THE NEW POTENTIAL SITES IN A

SINGLE DATABASE

The gross database coming from the integration of information coming from different sources

has 2045 potential hydropower sites (1470 coming from the literature and 575 identified by

SiteFinder).

The database was manually cleared of 744 duplicates and sites without any data on the gross

head, on the discharge and on the capacity. This left 1301 potential identified sites of all

capacity – the GROSS DATABASE OF HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL SITES. Note that many sites

may still contain duplicates stemming from errors of geographical coordinates and place

names. The data collected doesn’t give any indication of the source of information or the

author of the study.

The study demonstrates that Madagascar has significant potential for small hydropower, for

both private and governmental investments. Without economic or technical constraints,

Madagascar’s small hydro potential comprised of more than 350 sites between 1-20 MW with

a total capacity of 1500 MW.



Prioritization of small hydropower sites

Small hydropower is an opportunity for the development of

significant power generation in the short-term.

Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 - Prioritization of promising small hydropower sites -


4 Prioritization of promising small hydropower sites

4.1 IDENTIFICATION AND SELECTION PROCESS OF PROMISING SITES

Substantive work was carried out to establish a portfolio of hydropower projects that meet the

criteria of the study. This work was conducted in close consultation with the Ministry of Energy

and related agencies and in accordance with the terms of reference of the study. The criteria

below were discussed and validated several times during the mission statement of the

inception report and at technical meetings.

The Government of Madagascar strongly emphasized the needs for the study to respect the

least cost constraint from the very start of the selection process. This economic factor was

included from early stages of the process even in the face of constraints related to incomplete

and heterogeneous data.

The diagram below shows schematically the study process. As the study progresses, through a

number of pre-determined criteria, the number of sites is reduced and, in parallel, information

and knowledge on each remaining potential site increases.



Note also that the planning process is a dynamic and iterative process that tapers based on the

increasing knowledge relating to potential sites.

Gross and Cleared Database: No planning is possible uncertainties about the technical

data and the coordinates of the sites is at a maximum.

For example, the Vohipary AD158 site has a capacity of 3.7 MW in the Collective list

from energy sector, a capacity of 1.38 MW in the listing of the ORE, a capacity of 18.7

MW in the listing of Ministry of Energy; after site visit, a capacity of 38.9 MW has been

calculated.

Portfolio of potential sites that meet the study criteria: a preliminary planning is

possible that takes into account the sites’ connection distance to either one of three

interconnected networks (Antananarivo-Antsirabe - RIA, Toamasina - RIT and

Fianarantsoa - RIF) or to an remote centre already equipped with a thermal generator.

Visited promising sites: indicative planning is possible because some of the technical

unknowns about potential sites are lifted. Power, production and cost calculations

enable realistic assessments of the possibility of connection. This planning could

eventually help integrate these projects into a future national electricity master plan.

4.2 SELECTION RESULTS AND PORTFOLIO OF 1-20 MW HYDROPOWER PROJECTS

The following table lists the criteria that were applied in the selection of promising sites.

Study criteria Number of selected potential

sites

Gross database of potential hydropower sites in Madagascar 1301 sites

- 168 sites with missing capacity or flow or zero gross head 1133 sites

- 5 aleardy existing sites 1128 sites

- 36 sites of capacity > 25 MW 1092 sites

- 673 sites of capacity < 800 kW (or < 700 kW for the sites identified by SiteFinder)

446 sites

- 80 sites in protected areas 366 sites

- 305 sites with a construction cost per installed kW estimated at > 5000 EUR/kW

61 sites

- 12 sites removed after a quality assurance review by an experienced hydropower engineer, based on a desktop assessment including detailed map studies.

49 sites

At the end of the selection process, a portfolio of 49 sites has been identified as the MOST

PROMISING SITES. The next step was to select from this portfolio of 49 sites the best potential

sites to be visited during activity 3.

At this stage of the study, given the lack of site visits and measurements to confirm the

technical parameters of the sites, it is not possible to draw firm technical conclusions on the 49



sites; existing data is too incomplete and imprecise. However, there is sufficient evidence to

affirm the sites’ potential for hydropower in the context of the study, and to warrant a field

visit.

The consultant considered for each site the possibilities of connection either to the grid or to

the nearest isolated centre powered by a thermal generator as well as the site’s accessibility.

Particular attention was paid to sites that can be developed in the short-term by private

investors. These are likely to be the key stakeholders for future productive investments in the

hydropower sector.

9 of the 49 sites have very difficult access and / or a mismatch in grid connection with their

capacity. These sites are located either at more than a day’s walking distance from a track, or

their connection point is estimated to be greater than 40 km away. These sites are likely not to

be visited until the development of a reasonable access, and as such are excluded from future

prioritisations, with closer projects or an extension of an existing grid being preferred.

7 sites among the 49 are located in ‘red areas’ from a security point of view. For safety

reasons, these sites were not visited during the study period. However, they maintain their

intrinsic interest and may be subject to investigation in future studies when the level of

security is again favourable.

The final list of sites to visit comprises 33 promising sites.

4.3 MOST PROMISING SITES FOR SHORT-TERM INVESTMENTS

TARGETED HYDROLOGICAL STUDY FOR THE MOST PROMISING SITES

The objective of the targeted hydrological study is to estimate the statistical characteristics of

the time series of flow at the 33 hydropower sites previously identified as the most promising

of this study. These statistical characteristics have a major role in the estimation of the

technical and economic parameters of potential hydropower schemes, as well as for their

development planning and determining connection type.

For the majority of the sites in this study, there is little or no existing specific information on

their hydrological regime. Therefore, we have developed a methodology to obtain an

indicative estimate of the statistical characteristics of flows at the sites of interest, based on

data available at other flow gauging stations located within the territory of Madagascar.

Consequently, based on the temporal and spatial resolutions of the available information on

river flows in Madagascar, and the methodology of analysis described below, we are able to

determine an indicative estimate of the hydrological characteristics at the sites of interest.

This estimate may under no circumstances be used for infrastructure design without

additional hydrological studies being carried out.



ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF THE MOST PROMISING SITES FOR SHORT TERM INVESTMENTS

Expected production and project costs have been computed based on characteristics of the

planned facilities, the local context and the site’s hydrology. From the production and the cost

outputs, the LCOE (Levelised cost of energy) has been calculated for each site, therefore

enabling a consistent means of comparing the sites.

VISITS TO THE PROMISING SITES

Following the selection process, site field visits were undertaken to meet the diverse data

required to assess the hydropower potential of the different sites and to determine their

preliminary cost.

Visits took place between late September 2014 and late November 2014, a period of 2

months. Reconnaissance work was conducted by several teams of experts. Teams of the

Ministry of Energy and related agencies accompanied the Consultant's experts to the field in

the week of 27 September 2014.

The data for each site can be classified into primary data (measured on site) and secondary

data (derived from the primary data).



Prioritized sites for development in the near-term

At least 11 sites, in total 130 MW, have been identified as

prioritized potential sites of interest for development in the short-

term. These would supplement Madagascar’s current power

supply with 950 GWh/year.

Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 - Prioritized sites for development in the short term -


5 Prioritized sites for development in the short term

SELECTION OF THE 20 PRIORITIZED SMALL HYDRO SITES FOR SHORT TERM DEVELOPMENT

For the selection of the 20 prioritized sites, we then process sites in groups, determined by

whether they are located within the same geographical area that can be connected either to

an existing network or to a single centre with a thermal generator. This is necessary since all

the sites that are close to each other will be in direct competition to supply the same

consumption centres.

The criteria used to make the selection of the 20 prioritized sites are presented in the table

below:

1. Group sites within the same load centre or grid;

2. Estimate capacity between 1 and 20 MW;

3. Q50% and hydropower work fitted to a small hydropower [Q50% < 50 m³/s];

4. LCOE (excluding access and off-line)< 70 US$/MWh or LCOE (with access and lines) <

120 US$/MWh (Interconnected Network) or < 200 US$/MWh (Remote Centre);

5. No evidence of environmental stress including sediment transport.

We review the five criteria used below:

Group of sites for the same load centre or grid

The projects are grouped by their ability to connect to the nearest consumption centre, either

to one of the 3 interconnected networks or to a remote network with a generator.



Predicted power between 1 and 20 MW

This criterion is clearly stated in the terms of reference. Note however that this criterion had

been slightly adapted in previous phases given the uncertainty on the collected data, to avoid

prematurely eliminating good projects. Note however that some sites are located in areas

where the uncertainty of hydrological data is still rather high, which can have a positive or

negative influence on the final installed capacity or production.

Q50% and hydropower work fitted to a small hydropower [Q50% < 50 m³/s]

In order to stay within in the flow ranges and equipment relevant to a small hydropower, it is

recommended that Q50% does not to exceed 50 m³/s. Above this rates, projects become more

complex: major floods require appropriate flood evacuation work, water transmission facilities

substantial and fiscal risks more important.

LCOE (excluding access and off-take line) < 70 US$/MWh or LCOE (with access and lines) <

120 US$/MWh (Interconnected Network) or < 200 US$/MWh (Remote Centre);

In accordance with the economic constraints, the consultant has set a maximum threshold of

US$ 70 / MWh taking account of the project only, without the access and connection costs

(which nonetheless have an impact on the viability of the project). Conservatively, we retain

the intermediate position in the costs range per kWh of Jirama 2011 (40 to 100 US$ / MWh)

which is 70 US$ / MWh.

A second economic indicator of importance is the LCOE of the project including the cost of

access and connection to the network or to a remote site. We hold as a maximum 120 US$ /

MWh for sites that can be connected to one of three interconnected networks and 200 US$ /

MWh for remote sites connected to a thermal group.

No evidence of environmental constraint including sediment transport

Site visits have enabled us to identify readily identifiable criteria limiting the development of

promising potential sites. These include the site’s location within protected area, the presence

of Lavaka erosion features or other important sediment transport features, even when

observed only in the dry season.



RESULTS OF THE SELECTION : 20 PRIORITIZED SITES

The table below gives a short description of the prioritized sites selection as proposed by the

consultant

Name Group River Water-

shed (km²)

Q50% (m

3/s)

Head (m)

Capacity @ Q50% (MW)

Energy @ Q50%

(GWh/y)

CAPEX line and

access include

d (MUS$)

LCOE @Q50%

(US$/MWh)

LCOE @Q50% + line

+access (US$/MWh

)

Environmental restriction

Ilengy - B B Mananara 1727.7 45.28 24.0 9.0 66.8 66.2 53.1 120.0 Moderate sediment

transport

SF011

C

Marimbona 1408.6 39.76 55.0 18.1 134.5 90.7 64.0 81.3 Low

SF019 Sandratsiona 2419.6 38.84 36.0 11.6 84.0 70.2 60.9 100.8 Moderate sediment

transport

SF020 Sandratsio 2093.4 23.82 90.0 17.7 126.2 80.1 42.1 77.4 Low

SF015 D

Maningory 8109.6 46.92 27.0 10.5 69.7 41.8 52.4 72.8 Moderate sediment

transport

SF118 Maningory 8422.6 48.73 91.0 36.7 243.6 97.1 38.2 48.9 Moderate sediment

transport

SF147 F

Iovay 120.1 5.50 170.

0 7.7 57.8 55.1 54.7 115.3 Low

SF148 Morongolo 216.7 10.98 24.0 2.2 16.4 28.0 64.3 205.4 Moderate sediment

transport

Ambodimanga

G

Laroka 179.6 10.68 123.

0 10.8 81.9 31.0 36.7 46.3 Low

Analamanaha Analamanaha 54.1 0.74 350.

0 2.1 15.0 14.3 97.7 114.3 Competition irrigation

Fanovana Sanatanora 496.4 18.95 68.0 10.7 80.0 26.0 33.8 39.9 Low

Antaralava I Imorona 463.2 5.45 32.0 1.4 10.2 9.6 69.7 114.0 Moderate sediment

transport / competition irrigation

Vohinaomby J Antsakoama 381.1 3.27 22.0 0.6 4.1 6.1 117.7 175.8 Moderate sediment

transport

Behingitika K Manandriana 267.7 12.48 45.0 4.7 35.0 17.1 43.5 59.6 Low

SF196 Besana 117.4 7.67 151.

0 9.6 72.2 32.0 34.1 54.4 Low

Antanjona

M

Sahanofa 393.6 14.86 112.

0 13.8 103.2 48.6 42.4 57.3 Low

Tambohorano Faravory 413.6 21.72 42.0 7.5 56.8 27.7 51.2 58.9 Low

Andriamanjavona

Namorona 813.2 20.52 61.0 10.4 76.8 30.4 43.6 48.1 Low

SF038A Namorona 1224.6 43.83 35.0 12.7 95.2 46.6 45.3 59.5 Low

SF195 Namorona 784.2 18.92 50.0 7.8 58.1 25.7 34.3 54.4 Low

The heads vary between 22m for the smallest and 350m for the biggest. The average

watershed is 1500km²: the smallest has a surface area of 54km² and the largest 8420km².

Estimated flows (Q50%) vary from 0.75 m³/s to 48 m³/s.

We can see in the table above that the 20 prioritized hydropower sites have an average LCOE

(offline and access) of US$ 54/MWh between US$ 33.8/MWh and US$ 117.7/MWh and an

average LCOE (including line and access) of US$ 85/MWh between US$ 39.9/MWh and US$

205.5/MWh.



The average investment costs (CAPEX including access and lines) are MUS$ 42, the smallest

project being at MUS$ 6.1 for a capacity of 600 kW and the largest at MUS$ 97.1 for a capacity

of 36.7 MW.

The total combined capacity of the 20 prioritized sites is 205 MW, with a total annual

production of 1490 GWh/y. These projects could contribute nationally to an increase above

the current installed capacity (552 MW) of about 37%, for a total investment of around MUS$

844. These 20 projects could replace approximately 53% of thermal energy (389 MW) if we

consider current nominal capacity, or more than 100% if we consider currently available

capacity (188 MW).

11 RECOMMENDED SITES TO INTRODUCE MORE SMALL HYDROPOWER INTO LEAST COST

PLANS

It is quite difficult to justify small hydropower projects in a master plan at the least cost of an

interconnected grid. This is mainly due to:

their production cost relatively high

the fact that the cost of lines and access represents a large share of the total

investment of the project,

the fact that the firm capacity and production during periods of low water can fall, a

significant disadvantage compared to thermal power plants.

The introduction of more small hydropower projects in the energy master plan at the lowest

possible cost, however, would have several advantages.

The annual increase in energy demand is of the order of tens of MW; a small

hydropower project is the right size to meet this increment.

On average, small hydropower projects will be faster to develop than large hydro (a

faster study and construction time and faster mobilization to find funding).

So even though in the long term it will be of interest to integrate large projects into least cost

development plans (economies of scale offer lower production costs), the introduction of

small hydro projects in the short-term offers significant advantages.

The table below summarizes the most interesting projects identified through this study, for

which production costs remain attractive compared to thermal. For information, the average

cost of Jirama fuel was US$ 338 / MWh in 2012 for diesel (fuel mainly used for remote centres)

and 208 US$ / MWh for HFO (fuel used on the interconnected grid). The cost of oil has recently

experienced a significant drop in the world market, but in the context of a more long-term

vision, their costs in 2012 appear to be a good indicator.

The consultant has selected projects between 5 MW and 18 MW which LCOE is maximum of

US$ 70-80 / MWh. We note again that there are three sites that are cascading down the



Namorona (SF195 / G191- Andriamanjavona / SF038), which will see their production costs go

down thanks to a pooling effect and their production increase thanks to a flow-control effect.

Code Name Group Q50%

(m3/s)

Head (m)


Energy @ Q50%

(GWh/an)

CAPEX line and access

included (MUS$)

LCOE + line

+access (US$/MWh)

Connection

SF011 SF011 C

39,76 55,0 18,1 134,5 90,7 81,3 remote

SF020 SF020 23,82 90,0 17,7 126,2 80,1 77,4 remote

SF015 SF015 D 46,92 27,0 10,5 69,7 41,8 72,8 remote

AD411 Ambodimanga G

10,68 123,0 10,8 81,9 31,0 46,3 RIA

G407 Fanovana 18,95 68,0 10,7 80,0 26,0 39,9 RIA

SF196 SF196 L 7,67 151,0 9,6 72,2 32,0 54,4 remote

AD631 Antanjona

M

14,86 112,0 13,8 103,2 48,6 57,3 RIF

AD652 Tambohorano 21,72 42,0 7,5 56,8 27,7 58,9 RIF

G191 Andriamanjavona 20,52 61,0 10,4 76,8 30,4 48,1 RIF

SF038 SF038A 43,83 35,0 12,7 95,2 46,6 59,5 RIF

SF195 SF195 18,92 50,0 7,8 58,1 25,7 54,4 RIF

130 MW 950

GWh/year

These high added value sites could eventually introduce a capacity of 130 MW into the

Malagasy electrical system with an annual energy production of 950 GWh per year, which

corresponds to an increase of 80% on current hydropower installed capacity (160 MW ) and a

117% increase on hydropower production in 2013 (809 GWh). In terms of total production in

Malagasy across all energy sources, these sites would add 67% (1423 GWh in 2013).

Note that the two sites (AD411-Ambodimanga and G407-Fanovana) that can connect to the

network of Antananarivo (RIA) are price-competitive with existing projects Antetezambato

(actual cost from 50 to 70 USD / MWh - Prefeasibility Study, 2013) and Mahavola (52 EUR /

MWh ~ 67 USD / MWh, 6 projects Comparative Study, 2009). These sites can also be

developed in shorter development times (2.5 to 4 years) than those related to major projects

that require more lengthy (6-10 years) time. The development of Antetezambato for example,

was planned over 7 years.

Sites that can feed the Fianarantsoa network (RIF) maintain their financial attractiveness even

in the context of a future interconnection of the three networks (RIA, RIT, GIR). Eventually, if

the planned interconnection with Manakara and Mananjary (RIFMM) occurs, these sites will

support the development of this network.

Overall, these sites have strong potential to attract Jirama or the private sector through

appropriate mechanisms of public-private partnerships.



SELECTION OF PROMISING SITES STUDIED AT AN ADVANCED STAGE OR PLANNED FOR

DEVELOPMENT BY THE MOE

In parallel to the selection process of new promising sites, a bibliographical analysis was

conduct on the sites already at an advanced stage of studies or planned for development by

the MoE, that match the study criteria.The figure below introduces the selection process and

criteria that were applied to determine a selection of promising site for short-term

investments.

The criteria are:

An expected installed capacity between 1 to 20 MW;

No Memorendum of Understanding (MoU) signed between a potential investor and the Government of Madagascar. Please note that the existing list at the Ministry of Energy is in need of updating;

A moderate level of study. The sites with an advanced study (prefeasibility, feasibility, detailed design) are not included;

The sites must be located outside of protected areas.

The table below presents the results of the selection process for promising sites matching the

selection criteria amongst the sites studied at an advanced stage or planned for development.

These 9 sites should be visited to update their technical and economical parameters allowing

them to be compared with the new prioritized potential sites.

CODE NAME RIVER Gross head (m) Design flow

(m³/s) Power (MW)

AD490 Andalona Andratsay 50 0 1.2

AD041 Andranomamofana Mahavavy nord 103 20 15

G539 Mariarano Bemarivo 35 0 1.45

AD711 Befanaova Sahambano 15 0 2.16

G023 Ambatoharanana Bemarivo 25 0 1.91

G219 Androka Anjobony 16 15 1.9

AD313 Ampondrokoh Maheriara 125 0.779 0.955

FR078 Chute

d'Andriamamovoka Sndranamby 40 11 4.32

G268 Anosibe Sahananga 250 0 1.89



3 SITES RECOMMENDED TO DEVELOP REMOTE AREAS

Several sites on the list haven’t got very efficient economic results. Nevertheless, these sites

are close to the remote centres that will not be connected for a long time. We need to

independently consider their development in consideration of growth in electricity demand at

these remote centres.

Code Name Group Q50%

(m3/s)

Head (m)


Energy @ Q50%

(GWh/y)

CAPEX line and access

included (MUS$)

LCOE @Q50% + line

+access (US$/MWh)

Selection

AD601 Antaralava I 5,45 32,0 1,4 10,2 9,6 114,0

AD653 Vohinaomby J 3,27 22,0 0,6 4,1 6,1 175,8

AD620 Behingitika K 12,48 45,0 4,7 35,0 17,1 59,6

Ideally, the development of this type of hydropower project should be followed up by ADER or

institutional partners.

Note that the AD601 site-Antaralava cannot be considered as an integrated irrigation /

hydropower project because it is currently used for irrigation via an existing weir. An

integrated development of this site would enable its LCOE to be improved by integrating its

economic agricultural potential and its social impact.

Concerning the AD620, note that despite the favourable LCOE, we need to wait a few years

before the demand of South Ambodimanga and its surrounding villages reach the available

production. To not “waste” the project by undersizing the infrastructure, phasing of the

infrastructure is recommended (for example: space for a future additional penstock and

turbine).



GIS as a tool for transparent development of hydropower potential

At the heart of this study, a GIS database has been developed for

small hydropower to support the Government of Madagascar in

developing its hydropower potential

Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 - GIS as a tool for transparent development of hydropower potential -


6 GIS as a tool for transparent development of hydropower

potential

GIS DATABASE

All elements relating to the hydropower sector in Madagascar with a geographical reference

are grouped in a geographical information system (GIS) whose reference coordinate system is

GCS_WGS_1984 (Datum: D_WGS_1984; Prime Meridian: Greenwich; Angular Unit: Degree).

The geographical information system was made to meet the condition of compatibility and

standardisation defined in the terms of reference so that geographical data be easily published

on the GIS platform of the World Bank. Furthermore, the consultant used the geographical

information system software QuantumGIS, free to use, to process and publish the

geographical data, which enables its broadcasting and free transfer during training in

Antananarivo on March 12-13, 2015 .

The database has a combination of vector and raster data. This database will be given in

international standard format (shapefiles and georeferenced TIFF images). A QuantumGIS

project was created to group all its spatial data in a geographical information system (GIS)

whose symbology will be identical to maps produced in HydroAtlas. An indicative illustration of

what the database will look like in the GIS software is given above.

An Excel file with the attribute information of the layers has also been given. This file has all

the metadata relative to different attribute fields of the layers.

Moreover, the main elements are also available in KML format (Keyhole Markup Language)

usable in Google Earth to ease the use and dispersion of information to a less specialised

public.

Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 - GIS as a tool for transparent development of hydropower potential -


MAINTENANCE AND UPDATE OF THE GEOGRAPHICAL DATABASE

It is recommended that the Ministry of Energy sets up, as soon as possible, an institutional

arrangement to maintain a sustainable database. This includes the managing the maintenance

and periodic updating of the data. A unit inside the MoE should be placed in charge of the

database and tasked with interacting with the related agencies (JIRAMA, ORE, ADER) on a

regular basis to centralize and disseminate the information concerning the existing and

potential sites. The database should also include the information relating to the agreements

(Memorandum of Understanding, etc. ) between MoE and developers essential for future

developments and investments into hydropower.

small hydro resource mapping in madagascar p 1...

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