smart health healthcare cost projection

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HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?

Catherine KhawChief, Intelligent [email protected]

COST OF AGING IN SINGAPORE

www.iss.nus.edu.sg/SmartHealth

We worry about these…

© 2015 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 2

http://population.sg/engagement/townhall/opening-address/#.Vt6h_Pl96M8Opening Address by DPM Teo Chee Hean at the “Our Population, Our Future” Townhall Dialogue on 9 October 2012(2000 feedback)


How much is enough?


http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/retirement-planning-how/2640474.html


Is S$1200 enough?

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What are the assumptions?

Excluding accommodation Today value of $ Mobility is not an issue Perfectly healthy All chores can be done by

individual


Will we be perfectly healthy after retirement?

01/04/2016 8:39 am - smart health healthcare cost


The use of medical care services rises with age. Singapore hospital admission rate for people aged 65 and above was increased from 24% in 2006 to 29% in 2014.

In 2014, hospital admission rate for people aged 65 and above ranged from 20% to 72%. A large proportion of healthcare costs associated with end of life care.

*Rate Per 1,000 Resident Population

https://www.moh.gov.sg/content/moh_web/home/statistics/healthcare_institutionstatistics/hospital_admissionratesbyageandsex/Hospital_Admission_Rates_by_Age_and_Sex_2014.html


Is Price going to increase, hold or decrease?


Increases in Healthcare CPI are much higher than General CPI.

https://www.moh.gov.sg/content/moh_web/home/statistics/Health_Facts_Singapore/Consumer_Price_Indices_CPI_and_Household_healthcare_Expenditure.html


How much is enough for expenses post retirement?

Depends on ….

lifestyle Health

Target retirement ageLife expectancyGeneral inflation

Healthcare inflationInvestment/saving returns

7


Methods for Estimating Expenses(for individual)

Cost Perspective Focusing on : Cost of medication and assistance required for

individual.

Integrate with general price inflation and healthcare price inflation to project future value

Assumptions Hospitalization and treatments are covered

by insurance/medishield.



Illness associated with Aging

• Expenditure

• Medications

• Care giver &/ Helper • Health supplements • Others ( diapers, …)

• Condition

• High blood pressure• High cholesterol• Diabetes• Bones/Joint

• Arthritis• Parkinsonism/dementia• Malnutrition• Osteoporosis + fall



Is S$1200 enough?

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Other cost /month:

Helper : $660 ++ Supplement: $300 High blood pressure : $35 High cholesterol : $45 Diabetes : $100 - $150 Others $300


Basic needs + Healthcare (example diabetes medication + Mobility assistance)

Basic Diabetes Assistance Supplement Others


(8%)

(55%)

(25%) (25%)

Basic $1200 (100%)

Medication + Care $1360 (113%)


What is the cash value required at year of retirement?


25 years old Target retirement age50 years old

Life Expectancy80 years old

20162016 20412041 20712071

Living cost


Retirement Planning Calculator Goal :• Create awareness of healthcare cost

and expenditure• Motivate individual to consider

healthier lifestyle at their younger days to avoid hefty future healthcare cost burden

Key consideration: • Current Age• Target Retirement Age• Life Expectancy• Medical conditions • General inflation for basic

expenditure• Healthcare inflation

By Mtech EBAC Student : Daniel, Jonathan, Edmond , Alan, Vivien, & Siong



Demo

Mrs Koo, is 39 years old, and overweight. She enjoys rich and sumptuous meals like many Singaporeans.Her mother was diagnose with Type 2 diabetes at age of 52 and had her limps amputated 5 years later.

Questions :What is the cost of diabetes to Mrs Koh?How much cash does she needs if she plan to retire at 65 ?



Summary

We hope to • create awareness of healthcare cost through

interactive mode.• partner with health care industry players to

motivate individual to choose healthier lifestyle, especially in their young days.

• encourage individual to start saving and invest as early as possible.

• engage with industry players to fine tune existing analytic project or conduct new projects.
