smart transportation for the airline industry - facing today's challenges

© 2010 IBM Corporation

Let’s Build aSmarter Planet:Airlines


Let’s build a smarter planet: Airlines

Headwinds, horizons and hope—competing on a smarter planet.

HEADWINDS

While recent forecasts suggests an industry wide recovery is underway, 2008-09 may have changed the airline industry forever.

HORIZONS

There are now, and will continue to be, growing opportunities to capture and transform data and to use the resulting information in new and powerful ways.

HOPE

For airlines, those horizons can be leveraged to create new strategies, capabilities and insights to drive competitiveness and long-term viability.



Strong headwinds are setting global airline industry profitability back.

AT THE TOP LINE

Current predictions are for 2009 passenger revenues to be off by nearly 16%, with cargo revenues off nearly 18%. By midyear, average international ticket prices had fallen 19% YTY, while 21% fewer premium passengers were flying.

AT THE COST LINE

While some have benefited positively from hedging positions, fuel price increases of 56% from their YTD low, airline service costs growth to over US$54B worldwide, imbalances in capacity and pending environmental regulation all promise even more cost line concerns.

AT THE BOTTOM LINE

Average yields have cratered by over -12% for passengers and -15% for freight; and despite a reduction in capacity, ever-growing break-even load factors are not being met. The industry has already lost US$6B (1st half estimate) and is positioned to nearly double that by year-end.



Asia-Pacific is enjoying robust demand growth.

10%

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0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

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-30%

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AU

G 0

7

SE

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OC

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NO

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7

JAN

08

FE

B 0

8

MA

R 0

8

AP

R 0

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MA

Y 0

8

JUN

08

JUL

08

AU

G 0

8

SE

P 0

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OC

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NO

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JAN

09

FE

B 0

9

MA

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AP

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9

JUN

09

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09

RPK GROWTH FTK GROWTH

RP

K A

ND

FT

K %

CH

AN

GE

ASIA-PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER AND CARGO GROWTH

AU

G 0

9

SE

P 0

9

OC

T 0

9

NO

V 0

9

DE

C 0

9

JAN

110

FE

B 1

0

MA

R 1

0

AP

R 1

0

MA

Y 1

0

JUN

10

20%

15%

25%

35%

30%



Top-line performance is also being bolstered by the gradual return of business and premium travel categories.

Globally, companies that cut back on business travel are spending once again: In 2009, 93% reported a reduction in their companies’ travel spending (ACTE Survey, March 2009)

1 in 3 managers expect spending to increase in the next 12 months (AirPlus Business Travel Index, August, 2010)

69% reported reductions in overall travel budget (HBR Survey, July 2009)

6.2% increase in global business travel spending expected in 2010 (NBTA Foundation , August 2010)

And companies are also spending more on premium class air travel: 65% of travel managers stated that they had made changes to their existing

travel policy to reflect specific spending limitations (ACTE Survey, March 2009)

10% of business travelers fly Business Class, compared to 8% in 2009 (AirPlus Business Travel Index , August 2010)

47% reported use of less expensive class of travel (HBR Survey, July 2009)

33% of travel managers expect an increase in spending in 2010 (AirPlus Business Travel Index , August 2010)

But not all markets are expected to enjoy uniformly robust corporate travel recovery: Japanese manufacturing sector continued to slow in 2H10, putting downward pressure on

corporate travel Industrial growth in India slowed to in June to just 7.1% which may dampen business travel demand Despite output growth from several countries in Western Europe, uncertainty about the speed and

shape of the economic recovery in the rest of Europe will depress demand, including demand for business travel



One important threat to business travel is the emergence of virtual alternatives to physical travel, such as telepresence.

Surveys show the challenging economic environment drove higher substitution: 60% of respondents had cut travel through remote conferencing use (BTN Survey, July 2009)

79% reported greater use of conference calls, WebEx, and telepresence (ACTE Survey, June 2009)

44% surveyed believed that video conferencing would increase in use, and 71% felt that telepresence was more time-efficient than face-to-face meetings (HBR Survey, July 2009)

And some analysts are spelling out the direct impact to airlines: Gartner: telepresence will replace 2.1 million airline seats per year by 2012 (Gartner, Feb 2009)

Haddock Research: 35% – 40% of airline seats for American business travel are threatened by telepresence (Haddock Research & Branding, May 2009)

And business travel suppliers are getting on board!

American Express Corporate Travel’s Virtual Meetings eXpert

“Based upon criteria such as price, duration of trip, purpose, environmental impact and more, the solution will alert travelers at the time of booking on available telepresence and high-end virtual meeting options, and guides them through scenarios that determine if it makes sense to take the trip virtually.”



Air travel is also under threat from high-speed rail which is perceived as more convenient, greener and competitively priced.

70%

80%

50%

Share of Madrid-Seville market – AVE

Estimated share of UK 3-hour domestic market – SNCF

46%

63%60%

Decline in inter-city flights – THSR

Share of Tokyo-Akita market – JR East

Share of Madrid-Barcelona market – AVE

Share of Korea market – KTX

“An airplane on wheels” Air France-KLM Chairman, Jean-Cyril Spinetta on the TGV.



From a cost-line perspective, the new unknown will be environmental costs for greenhouse gas emissions, which will have a further impact on premium demand as costs are passed on to passengers.

15%Anticipated shortfall (77M tons of CO2) in allowances for airlines from EU Carbon Trading Scheme in 2012 (estimated to cost US$1.4 – $1.6B to the industry and adding an average cost per ticket of US$13+ to a short-haul flight and US$60 for a long-haul flight).

US$7BExpected annual cost to airlines to meet global IATA commitment for carbon neutral growth in 2020.

DELTA

UNITED

BRITISH

RYANAIR

QANTAS

CONTINENTAL

EASYJET

THAI

AMERICAN

AIR FRANCE/KLM

$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80

US$ MILLIONS

ADDITIONAL COSTS FROM ETS ALONE2012 COST FOR CARBON CREDIT PURCHASES



Meanwhile, higher fuel and airport services costs may compound the issue and increase average costs or cost volatility.

160

GLOBAL LANDING FEESQUARTERLY CHARGES TO AIRLINES

JET FUEL PRICE TRENDSingapore Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Spot Price (Cents per Gallon)

150

140

130

120

110

100

4Q06

1Q07

2Q07

3Q07

4Q07

1Q08

2Q08

3Q08

4Q08

1Q09

2000 = 100

Airport service charges collectively accounted for nearly 8% of AP airlines operating costs.

0

50

100

150

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350

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

On a global basis, Jet Fuel is down almost 30% from 2008 and up 25% from 2009 to 2010



These headwinds make it difficult to predict future performance.

GLOBAL INDUSTRY PROFITABILITYTOTAL INDUSTRY PROFIT/LOSS PAST 20 YEARS

$15

1989

$10

$5

$0

-$5

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1990

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F

US

$ B

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-$10

2010 forecasts are positive



Bigger is NOT always better. Smarter is better

COPA AirlinesRepublic Airlines

Allegiant Air

Air Arabia

Air AsiaAir Wisconsin

Emirates AirlineQantas

Lufthansa

Southwest Airlines

ANA - All Nippon AirwaysCathay Pacific

Air CanadaBritish Airways

American AirlinesJ apan Airlines Int’l

US Airways

United AirlinesAustrian

China Eastern Airlines

Delta Air Lines

-20.00%

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00

Relative Size

Pro

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200

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Smaller carriers tend to limit complexity and maintain higher prices in less contested regional markets

Large carrier performance is limited to relatively modest profitability large performance variations year to year

1 Data collected from airline annual reports and industry fleet data from IATA, IBM Analysis2 Relative size is a composite measure of 08/09 Revenue and total current seat capacity3 Trend line is a 5th degree polynomial function that accounts for only a portion of the variation in the data

INVERSE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RELATIVE SIZE AND PROFITABILITYRelative size and profit performance in 2008-09 for 163 global airlines 1,2,3



The world is becoming smaller and flatter,but also smarter.

Looking ahead, the horizon is increasingly clear…



The reality of living in a globally integrated world is upon us.

Frozen credit markets and limited access to capital. Economic downturn and future uncertainty of economic growth. Environmental sustainability challenges and looming global regulation. Oil and fuel volatility and long-term cost escalation. Information explosion, channel proliferation and loss of market-making power. Emergence of indirect substitutes and alternatives to travel. Changing travel demand and shifts in buying behaviors. Consolidation and contraction of capacity. New customer demands and business models.

The world is connected:economically, socially and technically.



The need for progress is clear.

Projected global airline industry losses in 2008 and 2009 combined.

$27.8 billion 60% and -19%60% of consumer sentiment around the U.S. airline industry is negative, and there are 19% fewer brand-loyal travelers in 2008 than in 2006. This is a recipe for commoditization.

Airlines generate 3% of all greenhouse gas emissions. Some say that because aircraft operate in the upper atmosphere, the impact is equivalent to 13% of emissions from all sources.

3% or 13%Estimated cost to airlines of mishandled baggage.

$3 billion



The opportunity for progress is clear.

7 billion / 6 billionIncreased demand

By 2020 there will be global demand for 7 billion air passenger trips. Yet airports and airlines will only have capacity for 6 billion.(Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)

80% downtime reductionIT management

An Asian airline implemented an enterprise-wide IT issue management solution, ultimately saving millions of dollars, reducing risk and maintaining its reputation as a reliable, premium air carrier.

Baggage handling

A European airport reduced mishandled baggage by 60% using an innovative RFID-based solution.

60% improvement1.5% per year 50% by 2050Airline industry environmental impact targets

1.5% average annual improvement infuel efficiency from 2009 to 2020.

Cap aviation CO2 emissions from 2020 onwards (carbon neutral growth).

50% reduction in CO2 emitted by 2050 relative to 2005.



The mandate for change is a mandate for smart.

The infrastructures, systems and processes that underpinhow business and society function are becoming

digitally aware, interconnected and infused with intelligence.

The new intelligence applies to how services are delivered, to the movement of people, freight, money, information and electricity, and more. Each represents a chance to do something

better, faster and more productively.

This is a new frame of reference with enormous promise for economic growth, with opportunities to think and act in new ways.



DRIVERS OF CHANGE CHALLENGES

Population explosionWorld population is growing and transportation providers will need to expand capacity to keep up.

UrbanizationAs the number and size of cities grows, pressure on transportation systems to move people and materials between and within those cities grows.

GlobalizationThe growing interconnectedness of the world is driving inter-city and international growth in demand, with an expectation of improved service.

Capacity and congestionHow to meet the growing, changing demand efficiently, consistently and profitably?

Empowered customersDeliver transportation choices in the way that end customers value.

Efficient, green operationsHow to reduce dependency on scarce resources while reducing environmental impact?

Safety and securityHow to unobtrusively reduce exposure to security risks and increase the safety of operations?

TechnologyTechnology now enables the capture and analysis of real-time information about the status, location and condition of everything.

STRATEGIC IMPERATIVES

Predict demand and optimize capacity and assets.

Dramatically improvethe end-to-end customer experience.

Improve operational efficiency while reducing environmental impact.

Assure safety and security.

Demands on airlines will increase over time, driving the need for new intelligence and insight, greater connectivity and transparency, and improved customer service.



Success on the new horizon depends on deeper, more holistic and informed planning, collaboration and execution. Airlines will need to become smarter.

IMPROVE THE END-TO-END CUSTOMER EXPERIENCEUnderstand customer needs and provide information and services to meet those needs in the manner preferred.

ASSURE SAFETY AND SECURITYLeverage new sources of information and new ways of using that information to improve security and safety.

AIRLINE

IMPROVE OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY WHILE REDUCING

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTContinuously balance cost and environmental impact of scarce

resource use while exploring new operational alternatives.

PREDICT DEMAND AND OPTIMIZE CAPACITY AND ASSETS

Predict demand, align transportation asset and infrastructure deployment and continuously adapt operations.



They will do so by becoming instrumented, interconnected and intelligent.



INSTRUMENTED

We now have the ability to measure, sense and see the location and condition of everything.

Today there are over 1 billion transistors for each person on the planet.

By 2010, 30 billion RFID tags will be embedded intoour daily life, communicating across entire ecosystems.

Modern aircraft have thousands of sensors and devices to monitor and/or record flight data, engine performance, navigational readings, external atmospheric conditions, cabin environment, aircraft structural performance and passenger service systems (e.g. galley, in-flight entertainment).

Today, more than 3,000 aircraft from 14 countries globally, including 19 airlines, produce 240,000 – 260,000 atmospheric readings for use in global weather forecasting. (Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay program)

The world is becoming more instrumented: aircraft, airports, supply chains and more.



INTERCONNECTED

People, systems and objects can communicate and interact with each other in entirely new ways.

The Internet is now over 1 billion people strong. By 2011, one-third of the world’s population will be on the Web.

There are currently nearly 4 billion mobile phone subscribers worldwide.

Pervasive communication channels including WiFi, Bluetooth, 3G, radio frequency and the Internet make connecting to and transmitting data from sensors and instruments constant and ubiquitous.

Frankfurt, Heathrow, Manchester, Luton and Leeds Bradford airports all use non-invasive scanning of passenger Bluetooth devices to track passenger behavior and airport performance.

The interconnection of people and things—passengers, employees, aircraft, airlines, airports, suppliers—has become pervasive, creating the ability to improve performance.



INTELLIGENT

We can respond to changes quickly, accurately and securely—and get better results by predicting and optimizing for future events.

An average company of 1,000 employees spends US$5.3 million a year to find information stored on its servers.

Every day, 15 petabytes of new information are generated—more than 8 times the information in all U.S. libraries.

By 2010, the average aircraft will contain over one billion lines of software code to drive automation and operational intelligence.

Instrumented and connected objects and processes communicate with sophisticated analytic systems that enable patterns to be recognized, relationships to be drawn and decision-making to be continuous and near real time.



An opportunity for airlinesto think and act in new ways.


Improve the end-to-end customer experience.

+ + =





Hope: Making airlines smarter

SMART IS: Optimizing capacity and assetsPredict demand and optimize assets and infrastructure both long-term (e.g. aircraft) and short-term (e.g. dynamically aligning routes, schedules and maintenance).

SMART IS: Improving the customer experienceKnow your customer, interact with that customer in their preferred style and manner, and differentiate your services to exceed their expectations—profitably.

SMART IS: Efficient and environmentally soundImprove operational efficiency while reducing negative environmental impacts by monitoring resource use and impact in real time, collaborating with partners and operators both vertically and horizontally.

SMART IS: Assuring safety and securityAssure and continuously enhance safety and security through non-invasive continual monitoring of journeys, assets and infrastructure with real-time notification of risks, issues and safety/security events.

SMART IS: Innovation

Establish a culture of continuous innovation in each of these dimensions to drive competitive advantage.



Netherlands Railways uses ILOG software to weigh 56,000 variables—including available assets and passenger demand—to assemble and schedule over 5,000 trains per day, realizing a 6% saving in operating efficiency and saving US$28.5M per year. Also improved on-time performance by 2%, helping capture an additional US$57M in fares.

A European airport was able to predict passenger volumes up to seven days in advance, with an accuracy of >90%, using IBM’s PaxFlow Simulator. The solution enables airports and airlines to optimize costs according to forecasted service levels, identify passenger volume for future business opportunities and minimize passengers’ idle waiting time.

A U.S.-based airline uses a Maximo enterprise asset management and MRO solution to increase reliability and availability while reducing maintenance and materials cost. Streamlined maintenance processes have reduced delays and decreased material and maintenance costs.

A Middle Eastern container shipping firm uses a fleet of 300 vessels servicing 400 ports worldwide. By using advanced analytics to optimize the location and movement of its 200,000 containers, IBM Research helped them cut empty container movement costs (~10% of turnover) by 10%. A Southeast Asian port uses IBM ILOG software to produce their loading plan in less than 30 minutes.




Improve efficiency while reducing environmental impact.

Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings used SOA and a Business Process Management solution to improve their ability to choreograph the complex movement of crews, aircraft and cargo, increasing operational efficiency. They expect an 80% reduction in the cost of integrating operations with strategic delivery partners, a 50% time savings and a 30% application development cost savings.

COSCO, a global shipping firm, engaged IBM to help optimize their supply chain using the Supply Chain Network Optimization Workbench (SNOW). As a result of the three month engagement, COSCO consolidated from 100 to 40 distribution centers, lowered logistics cost by 23% and reduced CO2 emissions by 15%.

A major European airport, in partnership with an international airline, reduced mishandled baggage by 60% by implementing an RFID-based baggage handling system. They have reduced transfer time by 22% and operational cost by 40%.

Air Canada introduced an innovative application for the Apple iPhone and iPod Touch, allowing passengers to book flights, download electronic boarding passes, check-in, receive flight status updates and book rental cars and other services. There were over 30,000 downloads of the application from 47 countries in the first six days.




Using biometrically enabled access to collect and verify traveler identity information as early as possible, a collaborative cross-industry pilot was successfully conducted to re-use the information throughout the remainder of the airport journey, facilitating easier air travel while maintaining high standards of security and identity management.

Through the use of RFID tags on parts and containers, IBM has helped a major aircraft manufacturer intelligently track aircraft parts throughout the product’s entire life cycle including all maintenance conducted on it and the plane in which it is used. The solution has allowed them to be more responsive to customers, and reduce fleet maintenance down-time without compromising safety.

A U.S. hub airport implemented a digital video surveillance solution and a security command and control center. The system also uses information from biometric handprints and badge readers. The system is more effective at recognizing risks and alerting the command center. The effective labor cost savings is US$2.2m per year.

A major Asian airline implemented an enterprise-wide maintenance and parts management solution to replace approximately 40 systems. The primary objective was to improve maintenance quality and cross-department collaboration through the use of standard processes, real-time data availability and reduced opportunity for human error.




The smart air transportation system is, in fact, an ecosystem—integrated around a set of information, processes and technology.

Participants collect, share and analyze information to generate new insights: Passenger journeys Freight shipments Location and

condition of assets Usage patterns

Technology

Information

Processes

Airports

Regulators

Governments

Freight and logisticsservice providers

Travel service providersInfluencers:Associations and

universities

Passengers

Airlines

Freight customers

OEMs and suppliers



The value they can realize through collaboration extends across the entire air transportation ecosystem.








Improved control and oversight, flow management, verificationand flexibility

Quicker, more informed risk assessment and decisions

Increased capacity, asset and resource utilization

More effective supply chain management

Increased cost effectiveness, aircraft turns, process efficiency and quality

Lower operational costs, fuel consumption and noise pollution

Reduced fuel use and emissions Regulatory compliance

Increased customer satisfaction, loyalty and safety

Fewer delays and disruptions More effective marketing,

promotion and loyalty programs







Why must we take action now?

Airlines must conserve cash today, attract and retain loyal customers, align capacity with demand and innovate for growth.

Four strategic imperatives for growth:

Predict demand and manage capacity to optimize all assets and infrastructure.

Improve the end-to-end customer experience—attract and retain loyal customers.

Operate efficiently and profitably while minimizing environmental impact.




Recessional economic principles and the role of IT:

Companies that have had superior performance through recessions have: Cut the right costs Migrated from fixed to variable costs Increased automation Identified and focused on key customers Marketed to growth areas Invested when competitors didn’t

Technology spending has collided with current economic conditions as IT organizations have failed to enact agile IT economics. The pressure is on to cut IT.

In 2008, the U.S. Fortune 500 had perhaps US$9.4T of operating expense and US$511B of tech expense. Operating expense dwarfs the cost of IT. Even if IT were “free,” the savings would not provide the needed lift.

The single biggest opportunity for organizations to reduce operating expense is through targeted technology investment.

Source: Dr. Howard Rubin – CEO Rubin Systems/Rubin Worldwide, MIT CISR Research Associate, Gartner Senior AdvisorSource: Study of 400 companies during the last recession by Diamond Management and Technology Consultants



Let's work together to drive real progress.

The infrastructures, systems and processes that underpin how business and society function are becoming digitally aware, interconnected and infused with intelligence.

The new intelligence applies to how services are delivered, to the movement of people, freight, money, information, electricity, and to how billions of people live and work. Each represents a chance to do something better, faster and more productively.

This is a new frame of reference with enormous promise for economic growth, with opportunities to think and act in new ways.

We’ve only just begun touncover what is possible ona smarter planet.




Fewer delays and disruptions Increased cost effectiveness, aircraft turns, process efficiency and quality

Improved control and oversight, flow management, verification and flexibility

Increased capacity, asset and resource utilization

Lower operational costs, fuel consumption and noise pollution

More effective supply chain management

Regulatory compliance

Quicker, more informed operational decisions

Increased customer satisfaction, loyalty and safety

Reduced environmental impact



Travel service providers

Airports

Airlines

Airlines and airports play a unique and critical role: together, they are the point of connection between end users and the broader ecosystem.

Regulators

Governments

Freight and logisticsservice providers

Influencers:Associations anduniversities

Passengers

Freight customers

OEMs and suppliers



To fill this role effectively, smart airlines and airports will apply intelligence to a spectrum of functions which they perform.

Airports

Airlines

Facilitate multi-modal travel and transport options

Track flows of passengers, baggage, freight in real time

Boost security while removing friction points

Provide comprehensive, integrated planning, routes and schedules

Offer access to continually updated travel and shipment options

Monitor plane and cargo condition and location in real time

Analyze historic and real-time data to predict demand and terminal traffic

Plan investments and operations to optimize efficiency, service and environmental impact

Provide immediate notification of disruptions and delays

Monitor resource use and environmental impact in real time



IBM IS INVESTING IN…AIRLINES ARE FOCUSED ON…

Assuring safety and security

Predicting demand and optimizing capacity

Delivering customer-driven products and services

Operating efficiently and profitably while minimizing environmental impact

Digital video surveillance, biometric identification, identify and access mgmt, risk analytics, condition based monitoring using wireless sensors

Reservation system modernization, Multi-channel self service, one view of the customer, customer analytics, CRM, loyalty management, cargo mgmt

Demand and revenue management, irregular operations management, enterprise asset management and MRO, business intelligence dashboards, crew scheduling

Enterprise asset management, enterprise infrastructure management, green supply chain optimization, carbon management

IBM’s solution strategy is aligned with the needs of airlines



Trademarks and notes

IBM Corporation 2009

IBM, the IBM logo and ibm.com are registered trademarks, and other company, product or service names may be trademarks or service marks of International Business Machines Corporation in the United States, other countries, or both. A current list of IBM trademarks is available on the Web at “Copyright and trademark information” at www.ibm.com/legal/copytrade.shtml

Adobe, the Adobe logo, PostScript, the PostScript logo, Cell Broadband Engine, Intel, the Intel logo, Intel Inside, the Intel Inside logo, Intel Centrino, the Intel Centrino logo, Celeron, Intel Xeon, Intel SpeedStep, Itanium, IT Infrastructure Library, ITIL, Java and all Java-based trademarks, Linux, Microsoft, Windows, Windows NT, the Windows logo, and UNIX are trademarks or service marks of others as described under “Special attributions” at: http://www.ibm.com/legal/copytrade.shtml#section-special

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References in this publication to IBM products or services do not imply that IBM intends to make them available in all countries in which IBM operates.

smart transportation for the airline industry - facing today's challenges

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