smc global monthly report on bullions & energy
DESCRIPTION
In this report we mention the price movements of bullions and energy and major events occurred in international as well as domestic market of previous month. Furthermore it contains the expected trend and range of current month, demand supply pattern, trends of various ETF’s, Gold Silver ratio in bullion counter whereas in Energy counter we analyze the monthly trend and range for both crude oil and natural gas, demand supply equilibrium, inventories, spread of brent crude oil and sweet crude oil etc. We generate long terms calls on these commodities as and when, based upon opportunities.TRANSCRIPT
SPECIAL MONTHLY REPORT ON
Bullions & Energy(June 2014)
2
BU
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S &
EN
ER
GY
June 2014
BULLIONS AND ENERGY PERFORMANCE ( - 30th May 2014) (% change) 30th April 2014
Source: Reuters and SMC Research
COMEX/NYMEX MCX
-6.88
-4.13
1.48
-7.25
-3.01
-0.73
3.26
-5.23
-8.00 -6.00 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00
Gold
Silver
Crude oil
Natural Gas
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BULLIONS
In the month of May bullion counter moved with
negative bias tracking feeble investment demand
and drop in china gold imports. Holdings in
exchange traded products backed by physical gold
continue to hit new 4½ year lows while physical
demand may receive a boost from pent up Indian
demand later this year when import restrictions are
expected to be eased by the new government. But
greenback took support near 79.5 levels and
recovered swiftly in the month of May which
pressurized the bullions lower. Slow China physical
demand capped the upside in gold. Overall gold
(June) traded in range of 26560-29029 in MCX and
$1242-1315 in COMEX. Silver (July) traded in range
of $18.91-20.38 in COMEX and 39517-42860 in
MCX. Recently rising greenback and better
economic data have kept the prices downbeat.
Meanwhile geopolitical tensions in Ukraine kept the
downside capped as it increases safe haven demand
of yellow metal.
In the month of June bullion counter can move
sideways with weak bias. On domestic bourses the
movements of local currency rupee will be key factor
to watch out which can move in range of 59-61.50 in
the month of May. Gold can trade in range of Rs
24500-26800 in MCX and $1170-1300 in COMEX.
Silver can trade in range of 36000-42000 in MCX
and $17-20 in COMEX. The gold/silver ratio has
moved to nearly 66.6 from 67.6 recently as gold fell
at faster pace than silver. This ratio can hover in
range of 65-68 in the month of June. Recovery in US
economy has also led to reduced safe haven demand
in bullion counter. Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust,
the largest exchange traded product backed by
bullion, are headed for a second monthly
contraction after dropping to 776.89 tonnes on May
21, the lowest level since December 2008. Gold
slumped 28 percent last year on expectations that
the Federal Reserve will reduce asset purchases as
the economy recovers. The metal is set for a second
weekly drop after data this week showed U.S.
durable goods orders unexpectedly rose in April and
net gold imports from Hong Kong by China fell in
April from both March and a year ago. But investor
interest in the precious metal declined in the wake of
the recent presidential election in Ukraine, as hopes
that the new leadership could help resolve the
month's long conflict between Moscow and Kiev
curbed demand for gold.BU
LL
ION
SJune 2014
India CAD drops sharply to 1.7% in FY14 on
lower gold imports
Aided by a sharp fall in gold imports, India's current
account deficit (CAD) narrowed sharply to 1.7 per cent
of GDP, or $32.4 billion, in FY14 from a record high of
$87.8 billion or 4.7 per cent in FY13. The lower CAD is
expected to give the new NDA government enough
room to revamp the economy. For the fourth quarter of
FY14, the CAD narrowed to $1.2 billion, or 0.2 per cent
of GDP from $18.1 billion (3.6 per cent of GDP) in the
same period of FY13. The decline - also the third straight
quarterly fall - was lower than $4.2 billion (0.9 per cent
of GDP) in the third quarter of FY14, as the decline in
imports was sharper than that in exports, according to
the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). "The decline in
imports was primarily led by a steep decline in gold
imports, which amounted to $5.3 billion, significantly
lower than $15.8 billion in Q4 of 2012-13," the RBI said.
Ukraine tensions
Recently Pro-Russian separatists dealt a heavy blow to
Ukrainian military efforts to win back the rebellious
east, even as tensions between insurgent factions
spilled into the open in this anxious regional capital's
downtown. U.S. Secretary of State John F. Kerry
pressed his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, to “end
all support for separatists, denounce their actions and
call on them to lay down their arms,” State Department
spokeswoman Jen Psaki said last week.
World gold council –First quarter review
Gold demand had a robust start to 2014 virtually
unchanged year-on-year at 1,074.5 tonnes. Jewellery
demand made moderate gains of 3% largely due to
lower gold prices compared with Q1 2013 and seasonal
factors, notably Chinese New Year, which contributed
to record first-quarter jewellery demand in China.
Movements within the investment space were more
striking: net ETF flows were zero, compared with 177
tonnes of outflows in Q1 2013, while bar and coin
investment unsurprisingly fell far short (-39%) of the
record levels of demand seen a year ago. The net impact
on Q1 investment demand was minimal: it was down by
just 6 tonnes (2%) year-on-year.
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Analysis: Chinese consumers generated the largest year-on-year volume increase in jewellery demand. The
most notable decline at the country level was in India, with a 9% drop in jewellery demand to 145.6 tonnes.
Jewellery demand strengthened across the Middle Eastern region as a whole. Turning to the industrialized west,
consumers in the US and the UK responded positively to lower gold prices and continued economic recovery. In
Russia, continued economic slowdown, combined with further depreciation of the rouble and an outbreak of
geopolitical tensions, led to a nominal reduction in jewellery demand.
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Jewellery demand
Analysis: While consumers were relatively robust in their demand for gold jewellery last quarter, second
quarter comparisons are expected to be significantly weaker. Much of the demand surge last year occurred in
response to the price drops in April and May, thereby pushing Q2 demand far beyond 'normal' ranges.
Jewellery demand was well supported in the first quarter, exceeding the total from Q1 last year, a period in which
we saw the beginnings of 2013's remarkable consumer resurgence. Lower gold prices were the most important
factor behind the growth in Q1 jewellery demand; the average US$ price was 21% lower than the year-earlier
period. This decline in the international price was echoed in many markets, with European and Chinese
consumers benefiting from a similar lower-price environment.
The first quarter of this year saw a continuation of momentum in the jewellery markets, with demand following
traditional patterns. Seasonal effects were particularly notable in China, where the response to the Chinese New
Year followed its customary path: Q4 strength in consumer demand and stock building, in preparation for New
Year and Valentine's Day, continued into January before quickly subsiding once the holiday period was over.
Demand remained subdued throughout the closing weeks of the quarter. This was repeated throughout South
East Asia, with demand in Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia also showing the usual New Year-related surge.
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Investment demand
Q1 investment demand for gold was just 6 tonnes (2%) lower year-on-year at 282.3 tonnes. However, the picture
of stability at the aggregate level conceals a more marked divergence in the different elements of demand within
the sector: bar and coin demand was significantly weaker while ETF outflows dwindled. Net ETF gold demand
was zero, with limited activity from both sides during the quarter. This had a positive impact on year-on-year
comparisons, given outflows of 176.5t in Q1 2013. On the one hand, tensions in Ukraine brought gold's risk-
hedging properties into focus. This resulted in positive monthly inflows to ETFs in February, for the first time in
over a year, which were repeated in March. However, expectations for continued US and global economic
recovery and possible increases in US interest rates over coming years had a contrasting effect, which
neutralized these inflows.
Analysis: Bar and coin investment suffered the most negative year-on-year comparisons for Q1, in part because
the base period was a record first quarter for bar and coin demand, but also due to uncertainty in the outlook for
the gold price. Bar and coin investment across Europe remained within its broad post-financial crisis range,
although very much at the lower end. Indian bar and coin investment was very restrained in the first quarter,
well below both year-earlier levels and the five-year quarterly average as the government's import limits
continued to suppress demand. Demand for gold investment products in the US was relatively muted in the first
quarter, 30% below 2013's elevated levels.
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Central banks demand
Net purchases by central banks reached 122.4 tonnes in Q1 2014, comfortably within the range of buying that has
been in place for the last three years. Germany remains the only active signatory of the Central Bank Gold
Agreement (CBGA), owing to its coin-minting programme.
Gold Supply
The supply of gold in the first quarter increased marginally (+1%) compared with the same period of 2013. An
additional 55.7 tonnes from mine supply was offset by a 46.6 tonnes reduction in recycled gold. Growth in gold
mine production (+6% year-on-year) was due to new operations either ramping-up or coming on stream.
The first quarter saw positive net hedging on a very small scale. The 6 tonnes of net hedging seen in Q1 compares
with 10.6 tonnes of net de-hedging in the same period last year.
Analysis: Recycled gold supplied by the developing world was marginally lower year-on-year. The relatively
lower gold price was the key factor motivating consumers, who preferred to wait for the opportunity to sell at a
higher price. The supply of recycled gold from Indian consumers was virtually unchanged year-on-year.
Although average domestic prices were lower than they had been a year earlier, high local premiums in Q1
indicated a continued lack of supply, which recycled gold, would have helped to mitigate. The supply of recycled
gold from Japan also declined sharply as consumers held off from selling their existing holdings pending the VAT
increase. These consumers receive VAT on top of the price that they receive for recycled gold, so we would
anticipate some of this pent up supply to be released in the second quarter.
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Range
Gold MCX Rs 24500-26800 per 10 gms
COMEX $1170-1300 per troy ounce
Gold Hedge NCDEX Rs 22800-25200 per 10 gms
Silver MCX Rs 36000-42000 per kg
COMEX $17-20 per ounce
Silver Hedge NCDEX Rs 3350-3650 per 100 gms
Gold Silver ratio
Source: Reuters
Analysis: The gold/silver ratio has moved to nearly 66.6 from 67.6 recently as gold fell at faster pace than silver.
This ratio can hover in range of 65-68 in the month of June 2014.
In the month of June 2014 bullion counter
will remain with downside bias. Ukraine
tensions and movement of greenback will
give further direction to the prices.
Moreover condition of global economy and
movement of local currency rupee coupled
with Physical, ETF demand will also
influence its prices.
ENERGYENERGYCRUDE OIL & NATURAL GASCRUDE OIL & NATURAL GAS
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ENERGY COMPLEX
Crude Oil
In the month of May crude oil prices traded on
positive path amid fall in stockpiles and tensions in
Ukraine and Russia. On domestic bourses strong
local currency rupee has kept the prices upside
capped as stable government at centre and
increasing FII flow supported rupee/dollar. Prices
traded in range of nearly $98.74- 104.50 in NYMEX
and 5960-6198 in MCX. Supply disruption in Libya
also supported the prices. Rebels in eastern Libya
threatened to shut two oil ports to protest the
appointment of the OPEC nation's new prime
minister. Crude prices strengthen in the latter part
of the month after moving sideways in initial part of
the last month. Concerns over a dramatic escalation
in the Ukraine crisis that could potentially cause a
disruption in gas supply and send energy prices
soaring. A fierce battle erupted in the rebel-held
eastern belt of Ukraine recently, just hours after
president-elect Petro Poroshenko vowed he would
not let the country become another Somalia.
Ukrainian fighter jets and combat helicopters struck
the terminal building at an airport in the eastern city
of Donetsk to try to dislodge scores of separatist
gunmen who seized the complex, triggering hours of
heavy firefights.
Crude oil futures can move sideways with mixed
path in the month of June. Economic data from US
and Europe along with geopolitical tensions will give
direction to the crude oil prices. Crude oil can move
in range of 5800-6300 in the month of June. The
drivers behind the positive momentum are the
combination of the annual pickup up in demand
from refineries as production of gasoline escalates
and geopolitical concerns mostly related to Ukraine
and Libya rumble on. Recently in the US, weekly
inventories shrank by a surprising 7.23 million
barrels, the most in four months on a combination of
reduced imports and increased refinery demand.
Adding some additional price support was another
inventory draw at Cushing, the massive storage
facility in Oklahoma which serves as the delivery
hub for WTI crude oil futures in New York.
June 2014
Fighting in Ukraine as well as production cuts in Libya
and South Sudan had helped drive up Brent, but
tensions eased after Russia said it would respect
Ukraine's election results. Recently, a decisive win for
billionaire Petro Poroshenko in Ukraine's presidential
election raised hopes of political stability in Ukraine - a
main gas supply route to Europe from Russia. Growth in
oil supply is expected to exceed demand this year,
spurring softer prices in the second quarter before
rebounding in the second half of the year on seasonally
stronger consumption.
Barring new supply outages, global oil capacity will rise
by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, the fastest
growth in a decade, the bank said, while product
demand will grow by 1.1 million bpd.
Libya and Iraq tensions
Libya's El Sharara and El Feel oilfields remained shut, a
spokesman for state-run National Oil Corp said
recently, almost two weeks after the government said
protests at the western fields had ended. OPEC
production is likely to decline this year, despite an
addition of 400,000 bpd of new capacity led by Iraq and
Saudi Arabia. Sudan has offered to supply materials,
engineers and electricity to South Sudan to speed up the
repair of oilfields damaged during a five-month
rebellion that has slashed output by a third, South
Sudan's oil minister said recently. The OPEC producer
produced 1.4 million bpd before nationwide protests at
oil fields and ports started in July 2013.
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June 2014
Brent WTI Spread
Source: Reuters
Analysis: Brent WTI spread narrowed to below 7 after testing high of above 9 in beginning of May 2014. This
spread can hover in range of 5-8 in near term. The reason for narrowing of spread as the escalating tension
between Russia and Ukraine which helped to boost Brent crude oil prices, as Russia is a major oil exporter. Also,
geopolitical events outside the U.S. are more apt to affect Brent crude prices than WTI prices. The increased
transportation capacity from inland U.S. crude production regions to demand centers (such as refineries on the
Gulf Coast) is bullish for WTI crude oil prices. The expanded pipeline is reportedly able to move more than
850,000 barrels per day of crude oil. Furthermore, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that
stocks at the inland U.S. crude hub of Cushing continued to decrease, which may also indicate that U.S. crude
produced inland is having an easier time getting to demand centers such as refineries. This can bring WTI and
Brent prices closer together.
Some key points from EIA estimates
Liquid Fuels Consumption
Total U.S. liquid fuels consumption rose by an
estimated 400,000 bbl/d (2.1%) in 2013. Total
consumption growth slows, to 40,000 bbl/d in 2014
and 70,000 bbl/d in 2015. Consumption of
hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) registered the
largest gain in 2013, increasing by 150,000 bbl/d
(6.4%). HGL consumption growth of 30,000 bbl/d
in 2014 and 50,000 bbl/d in 2015 is led by
increasing ethane use as a feedstock in ethylene
production units. Motor gasoline consumption grew
by 90,000 bbl/d (1.1%) in 2013, the largest increase
since 2006. Motor gasoline consumption grows by
20,000 bbl/d in 2014 and remains flat in 2015 as
improving new vehicle fuel economy increasingly
offsets highway travel growth. Distillate fuel
consumption increased by 90,000 bbl/d (2.5%) last
year, reflecting colder weather and domestic economic
growth. Distillate fuel oil consumption rises by 70,000
bbl/d and 60,000 bbl/d in 2014 and 2015, respectively.
The increases in HGL, gasoline, and distillate
consumption are partially offset by declines in
consumption of residual fuel oil and unfinished oils.
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June 2014
Liquid Fuels Supply
Forecast total U.S. crude oil production increases
from an estimated 7.4 million bbl/d in 2013 to 8.5
million bbl/d in 2014 and 9.2 million bbl/d in 2015.
The highest previous annual average U.S.
production level was 9.6 million bbl/d in 1970. EIA
has increased its Gulf of Mexico crude oil production
forecast as new wells in the Mars field began
producing ahead of schedule in February 2014. The
Olympus platform and Mars B infrastructure,
owned by Shell and BP, is the first major expansion
of the Mars field. Mars B production is expected to
reach 100,000 bbl/d in 2015. Although the peak
production levels have not changed, earlier reports
indicated that the Mars B system would begin
producing in late 2014 or early 2015. U.S. federal
Gulf of Mexico (GOM) production, which has fallen
for four consecutive years, is projected to increase by
150,000 bbl/d in 2014 and by an additional 240,000
bbl/d in 2015.
Non‐OPEC Supply
EIA estimates that non-OPEC liquid fuel production
grew by 1.3 million bbl/d in 2013, averaging 54.0
million bbl/d for the year. EIA expects non-OPEC
liquid fuel production to grow by 1.5 million bbl/d in
2014 and 1.1 million bbl/d in 2015. EIA forecasts
production from the United States and Canada to
grow by a combined annual average of 1.4 million
bbl/d in 2014 and 1.1 million bbl/d in 2015. EIA
estimates that production will rise by an annual
average of 0.21 million bbl/d in 2014 in countries of
the Former Soviet Union, led by Russia. However,
production in the region only rises by 30,000 bbl/d
in 2015. The forecast of completion of phase 1 of
Kazakhstan's Kashagan field has been pushed back
to the second half of 2015 because of continued
problems delaying the start of commercial
production at the field. Unplanned supply
disruptions among non-OPEC producers averaged
0.6 million bbl/d in April 2014, roughly unchanged
from March. South Sudan, Syria, and Yemen
accounted for almost 90% of total non-OPEC supply
disruptions. EIA does not assume a disruption to oil
supply or demand as a result of ongoing events in
Ukraine.
OPEC Supply
EIA estimates that OPEC crude oil production averaged
30.0 million bbl/d in 2013, a decline of 0.9 million bbl/d
from the previous year, primarily reflecting production
declines in Iran, increased unplanned outages in Libya,
Nigeria, and Iraq, and strong non-OPEC supply growth.
EIA expects OPEC crude oil production to fall by 0.4
million bbl/d in 2014 and an additional 0.1 million
bbl/d in 2015, as a result of supply disruptions in OPEC
and cutbacks in crude oil production to accommodate
increased supplies in non-OPEC countries. Unplanned
crude oil supply disruptions among OPEC producers
averaged 2.6 million bbl/d in April, slightly lower than
the previous month. Libya continues to experience
swings in its production, contributing to changes in the
OPEC disruption estimate. EIA expects that OPEC
surplus capacity, which is concentrated in Saudi Arabia,
will average 2.3 million bbl/d in 2014 and 3.5 million
bbl/d in 2015. This build in surplus capacity reflects
production cutbacks by some OPEC members adjusting
for the higher supply from non-OPEC producers. These
estimates do not include additional capacity that may be
available in Iran but is currently offline because of the
effects of U.S. and European Union sanctions on Iran's
oil sector.
Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
Consumption
EIA estimates that global consumption grew by 1.2
million bbl/d in 2013, averaging 90.4 million bbl/d for
the year. EIA expects global consumption to grow 1.2
million bbl/d in both 2014 and 2015. Projected global
oil-consumption-weighted real GDP, which increased
by an estimated 2.3% in 2013, grows by 2.8% and 3.3%
in 2014 and 2015, respectively.
Crude oil may remain on volatile path on mixed
fundamentals. Ukraine tensions can give
support to the prices while increase in
stockpiles can cap the upside. Global
macroeconomic numbers along with weekly
inventory data in US will also affect the overall
sentiments.
Range
Crude Oil
MCX Rs 5800-6300 per barrel
NYMEX $98-106 per barrel
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June 2014
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Natural Gas
average 72.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in Natural gas prices plunged lower in the month of the 2014, an increase of 1.3% from 2013, led by the month of May on low demand as the absence of industrial sector. In 2015, total natural gas extreme temperatures curbs demand for heating consumption falls by 0.1 Bcf/d as a return to near-and air conditioning. Overall it traded in range of normal winter weather contributes to lower $4.29-4.85 in NYMEX and 254.10-291.90 in MCX. residential and commercial consumption. Higher
Natural gas can move in range of 252-295 in the natural gas prices this U.S. Energy Information
month of June as weather concerns and position of Administration year contribute to a 0.4% decline in
stockpiles will give further direction to the prices. natural gas consumption in the power sector to 22.2
Following the very cold winter gas stockpiles are Bcf/d in 2014. EIA expects natural gas
still over 40 per cent below the five-year average for consumption in the power sector to increase to 23.1
this time of year and a relatively high price is needed Bcf/d in 2015 with the retirement of some coal
over the coming months to encourage producers to plants.
keep production levels high and also to motivate
power plants to switch from gas to coal. So far,
however, the weather conditions have been perfect U.S. Natural Gas Production and Trade for the rebuilding of storage as slowly rising
EIA expects natural gas marketed production will temperatures requires less fuel for air conditioners
grow by an average rate of 3.0% in 2014 and 1.8% in compared with cold weather. The longer this
2015. Rapid natural gas production growth in the remains the case we could see a successful
Marcellus formation is contributing to falling rebuilding of storage levels back towards the US
natural gas forward prices in the Northeast, which Energy Information Administration's target of
often fall even with or below Henry Hub prices 3,500 billion cubic feet at the end of the injection
outside of peak winter demand months. season in October.
Consequently, some drilling activity may move
away from the Marcellus back to Gulf Coast plays
such as the Haynesville and Barnett, where prices Latest inventory reportare closer to the Henry Hub spot price. Liquefied
Last week's build in natural gas inventories was natural gas (LNG) imports have declined over the
greater than the market's expectation, which past several years because higher prices in Europe
indicated stronger demand or weaker supply than and Asia are more attractive to sellers than the
expected. Current natural gas inventories are relatively low prices in the United States. Several
roughly 45% lower than the average of the past five companies are planning to build liquefaction
years, as last winter brought extremely cold capacity to export LNG from the United States.
weather. Natural gas demand surged, which Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass facility is expected to
resulted in large depletions of inventories as well as be the first to liquefy natural gas produced in the
a rise in prices. The front month natural gas futures Lower 48 states for export. The facility has a total
contract was trading around $3.50 per MMBtu in liquefaction capacity of 3 Bcf/d and is scheduled to
early November to peak above $6.00 per MMBtu at come online in stages beginning in late 2015.
points in February and is currently at $4.50 per Natural gas prices will depend upon MMBtu. The markets will be watching to see how weather conditions and power generation natural gas inventories move through the spring demand coupled with its consumption and summer ahead of the peak winter demand pattern and inventory position in the season. Inventory levels that remain below average month of June 2014. could prime natural gas prices for a rally this coming
winter.
EIA Natural gas estimates
U.S. Natural Gas Consumption
EIA expects total natural gas consumption will
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June 2014
Range
Natural gas
NYMEX $4.35- $4.70 per mmBtu
MCX Rs252-295 per mmBtu
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June 2014
SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at www.sebi.gov.in and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at www.tatacapital.com and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at www.ilfscapital.com. Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus.
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June 2014