sme september 14, 2004 washington, dc “the new steel…the new steel industry” lawrence w....
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SMESeptember 14, 2004Washington, DC
“THE NEW STEEL…THE NEW STEEL INDUSTRY”
Lawrence W. Kavanagh American Iron & Steel Institute
Iron ore production has not kept pace with steel production in China; imports could reach 240 million
tonnes over the next few years
101117
143 150 159 162181 168 167 175
194221
264
327347
366 378352 341 341 352 364 377 390
050
100150200250300350400450
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
e2
00
4f
20
05
f2
00
6f
20
07
f2
00
8f
20
09
f2
01
0f
20
11
f2
01
2f
20
13
f2
01
4f
Imported Iron Ore Domestic Iron Ore
Source: UNCTAD, TEX Report 2002-3,WSD, IISI, Hatch Internal
Forecast
Coke production has been decreasing in every region of the world except Asia, Africa and the Middle East
RegionProduction Trend (1991-2002 CAGR)
Western Europe - 4.8%
FSU - 2.4%
North America - 2.5%
South America - 0.2%
Africa/M.E. + 0.4%
Asia + 3.1%
Oceania - 2.3%
World - 0.3%
Source: IISI, RAG Trading, Australian Coal, USGS, EIA, Hatch Internal
Age Profile of Global CokeMaking Capacity 2002
< 10 yrs. 10%
11-20 yrs. 32%
21-30 yrs. 38%
31-40 yrs. 15%
>40 yrs. 5%
< 10 yrs. 10%
China’s role in coke production and consumption is surpassed by its role in trade
CountryMarket Share:
ProductionMarket Share:
Trade
China 37% 55%
Japan 12% 11%
CIS (Russia & Ukraine) 12% 13%
US 6% Net importer
India 4% Net importer
S. Korea 4% Net importer
Poland 3% 16%
World Volume (M Tonnes) 350 25
Source: EIA, CRU, BHPB, Hatch Internal
$200
$240
$280
$320
$360
$400
$440
$480
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
$ pe
r to
n
Hot-Rolled Spot PriceJanuary 1980 to May 2003
Source: Purchasing Magazine
Average for Period (January 1980 to May 2003)
Purchasing Magazine Transaction Price forHot-Rolled Sheet, Midwest Market Average
January 1980 - June 2004
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
$ pe
r ton
Source: Purchasing Magazine. 1980-2000 Avg.($339) vs. Jun 2004 ($627) = 85.0 % [July 2002 peak ($400) vs. Jun 2004 = 56.8 %]
METRICS – STEEL CONTENT
249 259 263 279 287 295 319 328 339 351 364 379
1711 1726 1739 1767 1779 1790 1810 1802 1787 1780 1799 1814
54.6 54.8 54.8 55.1 55 55.1 54.4 53.8 53.9 545555.5
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
HSS
Total Steel
Steel %
1992 Average Vehicle3135 LBS. Curb Wt.
2003 Average Vehicle3358 LBS. Curb Wt.
Lb
s.
Per
Veh
icle
% S
teel in
Veh
icle
1998 Average Vehicle3262 LBS. Curb Wt
ACHIEVEMENTS - CARS
ULSAB-AVC
• Safe – ( 5-Star Crash Rating)
• Affordable – ($10,000 Manufacturing Cost)
• Fuel Efficient - (52-68 miles/gallon)
• Environmentally Friendly – (2200 lbs./recyclable)