smith and reynolds 2005 and ipcc 2007
DESCRIPTION
Impact of climate change on the global oceanic sink of CO 2 Corinne Le Quéré, University of East Anglia and British Antarctic Survey. winds. decadal changes in the earth’s physical system. energy. water. observed warming trend 1979-2005. Smith and Reynolds 2005 and IPCC 2007. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Impact of climate change on the
global oceanic sink of CO2
Corinne Le Quéré,
University of East Anglia and
British Antarctic Survey
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Smith and Reynolds 2005 and IPCC 2007
water
energy
observed warming trend 1979-2005
decadal changes in the earth’s physical system
winds
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geological reservoirs
fossil fuel emissions land use
changeland sink
ocean sink
7.2 1.5 2.3
2.2
atmosphere
4.2
2000-2005 CO2 budget (GtC/y)
Global Carbon Project, Canadell et al. 2007
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decadal trend in the Airborne Fraction
atm CO2
CO2 emissions (FF + Land Use)
gain of 0.053(p = 0.89)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
time
Air
born
e f
ract
ion
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
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geological reservoirs
fossil fuel emissions land use
changeland sink
ocean sink
7.2 1.5 2.3
2.2
atmosphere
4.2
2000-2005 CO2 budget (GtC/y)
Global Carbon Project, Canadell et al. 2007
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physical transport
CO2
chemical reactions
atmosphere
ocean
biological activity
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Mauna Loa observatory (Hawaii)
Alert (Canada)
Palmer (Antarctica)
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Alert (Canada)
Palmer (Antarctica)
atmospheric CO2
time (y)
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Alert (Canada)
Palmer (Antarctica)
atmospheric CO2
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Atmospheric Inverse Model:
Cmeasured ↔ Cmodeled = Af +co
model and approach: Christian Rödenbeck
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CO2 sink
(PgC/y)
expected trend
Le Quéré, Rödenbeck, Buitenhuis et al. 2007
change in Southern Ocean CO2 sink
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data from Takahashi et al., DSR (2008)
Feely et al., 2006, Schuster and Watson, 2007, Takahashi et al., 2006
deseasonalised observations, evenly distributed over 3 decades
longest data series from: Richard Feely, Cathy E. Cosca, Rik Wanninkhof, David W. Chipman, Colm Sweeney, Andrew Watson, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Ute Schuster, H. Yoshikawa-Inoue, Masao Ishii and T. Modorikawa, Y. Nojiri, Jon
Olafsson, C. S. Wong., Arne Kroetzinger, Bronte Tilbrook, Truls Johannessen and Are Olsen.
trend in oceanic pCO2 1981-2007 (uatm/y)
1.6
0.4
2.8
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data from Takahashi et al., DSR (2008)
Feely et al., 2006, Schuster and Watson, 2007, Takahashi et al., 2006
deseasonalised observations, evenly distributed over 3 decades
longest data series from: Richard Feely, Cathy E. Cosca, Rik Wanninkhof, David W. Chipman, Colm Sweeney, Andrew Watson, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Ute Schuster, H. Yoshikawa-Inoue, Masao Ishii and T. Modorikawa, Y. Nojiri, Jon
Olafsson, C. S. Wong., Arne Kroetzinger, Bronte Tilbrook, Truls Johannessen and Are Olsen.
trend in oceanic pCO2 1981-2007 (uatm/y)
1.6
0.4
2.8
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• PISCES-T ecosystem model • 2 phyto, 2 zoo., 2 sinking particles• limitation by Fe, P, and Si• initialise with observations in 1948
(Buitenhuis et al., GBC 2006)
identifying the processes with the OPA model
• OPA General Circulation model • 0.5-1.5ox2o resolution• 31 vertical levels • calculated vertical mixing• NCEP daily forcing
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SSMI winds (Wentz et al 2007)updated from Reynolds and Smith (1994)
Obs
NCEP
NCEP2
Trends
1982-2007 SST 1988-2007 winds
+1°C
+0.4 m/s
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Obs
CO2 only
Trends in ocean pCO2 (uatm/y)
Le Quéré, Takahashi, Buitenhuis, Rödenbeck & Sutherland, in prep.
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Obs
NCEP
NCEP2
Trends in ocean pCO2 (uatm/y)
Le Quéré, Takahashi, Buitenhuis, Rödenbeck & Sutherland, in prep.
CO2 and climate
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CO2 sink
(PgC/y)
CO2 only
Time (y)
change in Global Ocean CO2 sink
Le Quéré, Takahashi, Buitenhuis, Rödenbeck & Sutherland, in prep.
CO2 and climate
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Atmospheric inversion
Ocean model
CO2 and climate CO2 only
globe- 0.09 ±
0.190.12 0.32
north 0.04 ± 0.04 0.05 0.05
tropics- 0.13 ±
0.130.01 0.14
south- 0.01 ±
0.050.06 0.13
Trend in ocean CO2 sink (PgC/y per decade, 1981-2007)
difference of 0.20
PgC/y per decade
Le Quéré, Takahashi, Buitenhuis, Rödenbeck & Sutherland, in prep.
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• PISCES-T ecosystem model • 2 phyto, 2 zoo., 2 sinking particles• limitation by Fe, P, and Si• initialise with observations in 1948
(Buitenhuis et al., GBC 2006)
identifying the processes with the OPA model
• OPA General Circulation model • 0.5-1.5ox2o resolution• 31 vertical levels • calculated vertical mixing• NCEP daily forcing
• no T effect on CO2
• constant fluxes
Le Quéré, Takahashi, Buitenhuis, Rödenbeck & Sutherland, in prep.
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Climate only
combined temp wind fluxes
globe -0.20 -0.04 -0.17 -0.03
north -0.01 -0.03 -0.01 0.01
tropics -0.13 -0.01 -0.10 -0.03
south -0.06 -0.01 -0.06 -0.01
Trend in ocean CO2 sink (PgC/y per decade, 1981-2007)
~50% of recent trends in ocean CO2 sink
can be attributed to human activitiesLe Quéré, Takahashi, Buitenhuis, Rödenbeck & Sutherland, in prep.
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the Airborne Fraction
atm CO2
CO2 emissions (FF + Land Use)
(p = 0.89)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
time
Air
born
e f
ract
ion
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAStrend in airborne fraction: 0.07 PgC/y per decade
trend in ocean CO2 sink from climate (since 1981): 0.20 PgC/y per decade
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modelled change in carbon storage (μmol/L)
1000
2000
3000
4000
depth (m)
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modelled change in surface pH
1000
2000
3000
4000
depth (m)
-0.05
0
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1981-2004 conditions
deep ocean
Cdeep = 2260
Csurface = 2120
higher winds causes CO2
outgassing
human CO2 emissions
65ºS 35ºS
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conditions under very high atmospheric CO2
deep ocean
Cdeep = 2260
Csurface > 2260
human CO2 emissions higher winds
causes CO2
uptake
65ºS 35ºS
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>100 years after CO2 emissions stop
deep ocean
Cdeep = 2260 + C
Csurface = 2120 + C
higher winds causes CO2
outgassing
65ºS 35ºS
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Raupach et al., 2007
fossil fuel CO2 emissions for the world